Global

IMF Warns Of Potential Risks To Global Growth. Sharply higher interest rates around the world could combine with weaker growth in emerging markets to slice as much as 2percentage points off global growth in the next five years, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. In a report assessing how individual national policies could interact to undermine the world economy, the IMF also warned the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could reverberate to the rest of the region if sanctions against Russia escalate, hitting natural gas supplies to Europe and weakening European banks. The resulting impact could prompt further gyrations in financial markets, in contrast to the recent period of market calm, the IMF said in its 'spillovers' report. In its worst-case scenario, the IMF said the United States and United Kingdom could tighten monetary policy sooner than expected, leading to higher borrowing costs worldwide, even as key emerging market growth slows a further 0.5percentage point over the next three years. (Reuters)

Asia

Japan's June Industrial Output Falls; Rebound In Sight. Japan's industrial output dropped 3.3% in June from the month before, data showed on Wednesday, compared to a Reuters projection of a 1.2% fall and following a drop of 0.7% in May. But manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect things to improve going forward, forecasting output to rise by 2.5% in July and 1.1% in August. (CNBC)

Japan’s Retail Sales Drop in Challenge to Abe Reflation. Japan’s retail sales fell more than forecast in June, capping a weak quarter that challenges Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s bid to reflate the economy while heaping a heavier tax burden on consumers. Sales dropped 0.6% from a year earlier, the trade ministry said in Tokyo today, steeper than a median forecast for a 0.5% decline in a Bloomberg News survey. In the second quarter, sales slumped 7% from the previous three months. (Bloomberg)

Japan Labour Demand Strengthens, Good Omen For Economic Recovery. Job availability in Japan hit its highest in 22 years in June as companies grew more confident about hiring, and household spending rebounded modestly – reinforcing expectations economic recovery will resume in the third quarter without the need for additional stimulus from the central bank. The jobs-to-applicants ratio rose to 1.10 in June from 1.09 in the previous month, data from the labour ministry showed on Tuesday, matching a high last seen in June 1992, shortly after the asset-inflation bubble burst, leading to years of stagnation. The jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 3.7% in June from 3.5% in May, reflecting an increase in job-seekers responding to economic recovery. Labour shortages in construction and retail suggest the jobless rate is not likely to rise sharply. (Reuters)

China's June Industrial Profits Rise 17.9%. Profits earned by Chinese industrial firms rose 17.9% in June to 588.08bil yuan ($94.98bil) from a year earlier, up sharply from an 8.9% rise in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said. For the first six months of 2014, profits rose 11.4% from the same period last year to 2.8tril yuan, the bureau said in data released on Sunday. (Reuters)

USA

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose at Slower Pace in May. Residential realestate prices rose in the 12 months ended May at the slowest pace in more than a year as a lull in the U.S. housing market limits appreciation. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 9.3% from May 2013, the smallest year-to-year advance since February 2013, after rising 10.8% in the year ended in April, the group said today in New York. The median projection of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 9.9% year-over-year advance. Compared with the prior month, prices dropped for the first time in two years. (Bloomberg)

U.S. services sector activity accelerates in July. Activity in the U.S. services sector held at its highest level in 4-1/2 years in July, though readings for new business and employment growth weakened, a survey showed on Monday. Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary services Purchasing Managers Index was 61.0 in July, unchanged from June and above expectations for a reading of 59.8. A reading above 50 signals expansion in economic activity, and June's reading was the highest final reading since the survey began in October 2009. (Reuters)

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Jumps to Highest Since 2007. Confidence among consumers soared in July to an almost seven-year high as increased employment opportunities led to brighter views of the U.S. economy. The Conference Board’s index advanced to 90.9, the highest since October 2007, from 86.4 in June, the New York-based private research group said today. The gauge exceeded the most optimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey of 75 economists. (Bloomberg)

Europe

EU Hits Russia With New Military, Financial Sanctions. European Union governments reached a deal on Tuesday to impose economic sanctions against Russia, targeting its oil industry, defense, dual-use goods and sensitive technologies, diplomats said, marking a new phase in the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War. The EU action was unavoidable, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday, and Russia must decide whether it will take a path of de-escalation and cooperation. The sanctions will limit Russia's access to EU capital markets, impose an embargo on trade in arms, establish an export ban for dual-use goods for military end users, and curtail Russian access to sensitive technologies particularly in the field of the oil sector, EU government officials said in a statement on Tuesday. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Gains On Outlook For Hawkish Fed, Strong U.S. Data. The U.S. dollar hit fresh eight-month highs against the euro on Tuesday and advanced against the yen and Swiss franc on expectations for positive U.S. economic data and a potentially more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. The euro was last down 0.22% against the U.S. dollar at $1.3410, slightly above a fresh eight-month low of $1.3402. The dollar was last up 0.27% against the Japanese yen at 102.12, just under an earlier three-week high of 102.15. The dollar was up 0.32% against the Swiss franc to trade at 0.9069 franc, just below an earlier five-month high of 0.9074 franc. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 0.22% at 81.202. (Reuters)

Commodities

Brent Oil Firm On New Russia Sanctions; U.S. Slips On Refinery. Brent crude ended slightly higher on Tuesday as new sanctions on Russia looked set to worsen relations between Moscow and the West, while U.S. prices slipped after a Kansas refinery fire curbed demand for WTI crude. Brent crude gained 15 cents to settle at $107.72 a barrel, after swinging between $107.13 and $108.05 earlier in the session. U.S. crude lost 70 cents to settle at $100.97 a barrel after touching an intraday low of $100.37, the lowest since mid-July. Prices gained another 10 cents after-hours, following industry data showing another big 4.4 million barrels drop in nationwide crude oil inventories last week. (Reuters)

Gold Drops As Market Waits For Fed's Rate View. Gold fell on Tuesday as investors nervously awaited the end of U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday to see if the central bank will raise interest rates faster than expected. Further weighing on the market was some selling in the August U.S. gold futures contract, traders said, as the contract headed for expiration over the next few weeks. At 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT), the spot price of gold was down 0.4% at $1,299.10 an ounce after rising to as high as $1,312.10 earlier in the day. In other precious metals, silver slipped 0.1% to $20.55 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.5% to $1,472.50. Palladium was also lost 0.5% to $875.20. (Reuters)