Global

WTO Members Fail To Agree Global Trade Deal. The World Trade Organization says its 160 members have failed to agree a global customs pact drawn up in meetings in Bali last December. The Trade Facilitation Agreement would have streamlined global customs procedures, and should have been finalised by Thursday. But it was blocked over a number of rifts, including India's demands for concessions on the stockpiling of food. The WTO said it had not been possible to find a breakthrough. (BBC)

Asia

Philippines Raises Benchmark Rate for 1st Time in 3 Years. The Philippines raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since May 2011, guarding against inflation risks even as economic growth slowed. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the rate it pays lenders for overnight deposits to 3.75% from a record-low 3.5%, according to a statement in Manila today. Fourteen of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the decision, with the rest forecasting no change. (Bloomberg)

China Should Lower 2015 Growth Target, Refrain From Stimulus: IMF. China should set an economic growth target of 6.5-7% for 2015 and refrain from stimulus measures unless the economy threatens to slow sharply from that level, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday. Most of its directors hold that view, though some feel that an even-lower growth target is appropriate, the IMF said in the conclusion of its annual Article IV economic consultation with China. "Regarding the growth target for 2015, while most directors concurred that a range of 6.5-7% would be consistent with the goal of transitioning to a safer and more sustainable growth path, a few others considered a lower target more appropriate," the IMF said. The IMF repeated its projection that the economic growth would dip to 7.4% this year, and decelerate further to 7.1% next year. (Reuters)

Japan June Wages Rise Less Than Forecast In Risk To Spending. Japan’s wage growth slowed in June, highlighting the risk to consumer spending as inflation squeezes household budgets in the world’s third-largest economy. Average overall monthly earnings rose 0.4% from a year earlier to 437,362 yen ($4,255) after a 0.6% gain in May, the labor ministry reported today, below the median forecast of 0.8% in a Bloomberg News survey of six economists. Excluding bonuses and overtime, pay increased 0.3%, the first gain in 27 months. (Bloomberg)

Shippers Downgrade Thai Economic Growth In 2nd Half. Thailand's exports in the second half of the year will grow but will not be enough to offset the poor performance in the first half. Thai National Shippers Council (TNSC), which downgraded its forecast on export growth to 1.6% from three% previously, said the reasons were uncertainty about the global economic growth prospects and the baht's appreciation. Its chairman, Nopporn Thepsithar, said Thailand needed to export between US$19.9bil and US$20bil per month, or a growth of three-four%, in the second half of the year, to hit growth of 1-1.6%. (Bernama)

USA

Jobless Claims in U.S. in Past Month Drop to Eight-Year Low. Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment insurance benefits over the past month than at any time in more than eight years, signaling employers are hanging on to workers as demand improves. The four-week average of jobless claims (INJCJC), considered a less volatile measure than the weekly figure, dropped to 297,250, the lowest since April 2006, from 300,750 the prior week. Claims in the period ended July 26 climbed to 302,000, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, from a revised 279,000 the prior week that was the lowest since 2000. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Wage Growth Picking Up As Labor Market Tightens. U.S. labor costs recorded their biggest gain in more than 5-1/2 years in the second quarter and a gauge of trends in the jobs market fell to an eight-year low last week, bolstering the economy's outlook. Though economists cautioned against reading too much into the rise in the employment cost index, they said a tightening jobs market suggested wage growth would soon accelerate significantly. The Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, rose 0.7%. That was the largest gain since the third quarter of 2008 and followed a 0.3% increase in the first quarter. (Reuters)

Europe

Euro Inflation Slowed To 0.4% In July, Lowest Since 2009. Euro-area inflation (ECCPEST) unexpectedly slowed in July to the weakest in almost five years, underscoring the European Central Bank’s concerns that the economy is too feeble to drive price growth. Inflation was 0.4% compared with 0.5% in June, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That is the weakest since October 2009 and below a median forecast of 0.5% in a Bloomberg News survey of 42 economists. (Bloomberg)

British Consumer Morale And Housing Market Cool In July. British consumer morale dipped for the first time in six months in July and house prices stagnated, adding to signs that Britain's rapid economic recovery is cooling slightly. The consumer confidence index produced by market research company GfK unexpectedly fell although it was still close to a nearly 10-year high. House price growth figures from mortgage lender Nationwide were their weakest in more than a year. GfK NOP's consumer confidence index fell to -2 in July from 1 in June, the first positive reading in the survey in nearly 10 years. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected a rise to 2. House prices gained 0.1% month-on-month, the slowest pace since April 2013 and down from a jump of 1.0% in June. Economists had expected a rise of 0.5%. (Reuters)

German Jobless, Retail Data Point To Strong Domestic Economy. German unemployment dropped more than expected in July and retail sales climbed in June, data showed on Thursday, spelling good news for private consumption which is expected to drive growth in Europe's largest economy this year. Seasonally adjusted data from the Labour Office showed the number of people out of work decreased by 12,000 to 2.898 million. The consensus forecast in a Reuters pollhad been for a drop of 5,000. German consumer morale rose to its highest level in more than 7-1/2 years heading into August as shoppers became more upbeat about their future income prospects than at any point since 1991, helped by a robust labour market and low inflation, which currently stands at just 0.8% in Germany. (Reuters)

Italy Unemployment Falls As Youth Jobless Hits Record. Italy’s unemployment rate fell to 12.3% in June in a positive sign for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s economic program. Youth unemployment rose to a record high. The jobless rate rose dropped from 12.6% in May, the Rome-based national statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a June unemployment rate of 12.6%. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Gains Against Rivals Ahead Of U.S. Jobs Data. The dollar gained against rivals Thursday, with investors waiting to see if U.S. jobs data will provide more evidence of economic strength. In afternoon trading, the dollar was at 102.86 yen, up slightly from ¥102.79 late Wednesday. The euro was also little changed at $1.3388, down from $1.3397. The ICE U.S. Dollar index was at 81.4460, up from 81.4320 Wednesday. The Canadian dollar was up slightly at 91.73 cents Thursday, from 91.68 cents Wednesday evening. (MarketWatch)

Commodities

U.S. Oil Dives Below $100 On Kansas Refinery Outage, Equity Drop. U.S. crude oil tumbled more than $2 on Thursday, going below $98 a barrel, hitting the lowest level since March on news of a potentially lengthy shutdown at a Kansas oil refinery, while Brent also slipped amid signs of robust OPEC oil production. Brent crude for September delivery settled down 49 cents at $106.02 a barrel. Brent has fallen more than 6% in July, on track for its biggest monthly decline since April 2013. U.S. crude futures for September delivery dropped $2.10 to settle at $98.17 a barrel. The contract hit an intraday low of $97.95, its lowest since mid-March. U.S. crude is on course for a monthly drop of nearly 7%, its biggest since May 2012. (Reuters)

Gold Falls 1% On Economic Optimism, Posts July Loss. Gold fell 1% to a six-week low on Thursday, ignoring sharp losses in the S&P 500 equities index, as strong U.S. wage growth data and signs of an improving job market reduced the need for safe-haven buying. Bullion posted more a loss of nearly 3.5% for July, its biggest monthly loss this year, as the Federal Reserve's reduced bond-buying stimulus and a better undertone in the U.S. economy decreased the metal's appeal as a hedge. Spot gold fell 1% to $1,282.15 an ounce by 2:08 p.m. EDT (1628 GMT). Earlier, it hit its lowest since June 19 at $1,280.76 an ounce. Among other precious metals, spot silver was down 1% to $20.38 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.1% to $1,457 an ounce, while palladium dropped 0.9% to $868.26 an ounce. (Reuters)