• The unemployment rate remained unchanged for the second straight month at 3.2% (Aug: 3.2%), matching the pre-pandemic level, reflecting a sustained recovery in the labour market conditions
• Unemployment numbers fell by 0.6% MoM (Aug: -0.9%), extending a 38-month decline.
• In absolute terms, the number of unemployed persons fell to 555.3k (Aug: 558.5k), slowly approaching the pre-pandemic level (Feb-20: 525.2k). Meanwhile, the actively unemployed fell to 443.5k (Aug: 446.6k), the lowest since April 2020 (459.8k), while those unemployed for less than three months decreased further to 275.0k (Aug: 275.8k),
• Employment growth steady at 0.2% MoM (Aug: 0.2%) led by a strong services sector
• By sector: The number of employed persons in the services sector continued to increase, particularly in food & beverage services, wholesale & retail trade, and information & communication activities. Similarly, employment in manufacturing, construction, mining & quarrying, and agriculture also expanded.
• By employment status: sustained increase in employees (0.1% MoM; Aug: 0.1%) and own account workers (0.3%; Aug: 0.3%). Meanwhile, employers expanded strongly on MoM growth (0.9%; Aug: 0.5%) at a nine-month high, while unpaid family workers rebounded slightly (0.1%; Aug: -0.3%).
• Labour force participation rate expanded to a record high (70.5%; Aug: 70.4%)
• Labour force (0.14% MoM; Aug: 0.14%): steady expansion, adding 24.4k persons (Aug: 24.2k), reaching a total of 17.24m persons, partly with a decline in those outside the labour force.
• Lower unemployment rate recorded among advanced economies
• US: unchanged in October at 4.1% (Sep: 4.1%) despite Boeing strike and the impact of two recent hurricanes, with job growth slowing to 12,000 jobs.
• Japan: fell for the second straight month to an eight-month low in September (2.4%; Aug: 2.5%), partly due to lower retrenchment, signalling continued economic recovery.
• 2024 unemployment rate forecast maintained at 3.3% (2023: 3.4%) and projected to decline to 3.2% next year on steady economic expansion
• Year-to-date average currently stands at 3.3% and is projected to remain steady towards the end of the year, driven by the recovery in the manufacturing exports-oriented sector and continued expansion in the services sector amid resilient domestic demand and continued increase in tourist arrivals. Going forward, higher investment approvals and measures undertaken by the government are expected to sustain employment growth in 2025.
• Given the lower unemployment rate in September and stable labour market conditions, which continues to support domestic demand, we maintain 3Q24 GDP growth at 5.3% (2Q24: 5.9%), bringing 2024 GDP growth forecast at 5.0% (2023: 3.6%). Growth is projected to moderate to 4.8% in 2025 amid global uncertainties, including potential renewed US-China trade tensions following the recent US presidential election.

Source: Kenanga Research - 11 Nov 2024