• Distributive trade sales grew 5.5% YoY (Sep: 3.8%), reaching a three-month high, indicating a strong start for the final quarter as domestic demand remained resilient.
• MoM growth rebounded to 1.3% (Sep: -0.7%) to a three-month high.
• Sales value (RM150.1b; Sep: RM148.2b): expanded to a record high, surpassing the RM150.0b mark for the first time.
• A broad-based expansion led by strong retail trade
• Motor vehicles (2.7%; Sep: -1.0%): rebounded due to higher sales of maintenance & repair (20.7%; Sep: 20.6%) and parts and accessories (9.8%; Sep: 8.5%). However, weak motor vehicle sales (-3.9%; Sep: -10.3%) capped the recovery, reflecting lower unit sales in October (69.9k units; Oct 2023: 76.2k).
• Wholesale trade (4.8%; Sep: 3.6%): rose to a three-month high, supported by strong expansion in food, beverages & tobacco (8.9%; Sep: 7.9%), followed by agriculture, raw material and live animals (7.9%; Sep: 4.0%) and a slight rebound in other specialised wholesale (0.9%; Sep: -2.6%).
• Retail trade (7.1%; Sep: 5.5%): growth rose to a four-month high due to higher growth in non-specialised stores (8.5%; Sep: 6.2%) and other goods in specialised stores (8.4%; Sep: 5.7%).
• Mixed performance of retail sales across regional economies in October
• China: retail trade rose to an eight-month high (4.8%; Sep: 3.2%), driven by ongoing policy support aims to boost consumer spending.
• Japan: retail sales doubled to 1.6% (Sep: 0.5%) but fell short of expectations (consensus: 2.1%).
• Hong Kong: remained weak (-2.9%; Sep: -6.9%), marking the eighth straight month of contraction due to shifts in consumer habits.
• 2024 sales growth forecast retained at 6.0% (2023: 7.7%); expected to expand to 7.6% in 2025
• Year-to-date performance: Sales growth grew 5.6% in the first 10 months of this year (Jan-Sep: 5.6%), below our full-year target of 6.0%. Nevertheless, we expect momentum to accelerate towards year-end amid festive season spending.
• Supporting factors: Growth will be supported by the government's phase 4 cash transfer under the Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR) programme in November, salary hikes for government servant in December, a continued rise in tourist arrivals, and sustained domestic demand growth amid improving household incomes.
• GDP growth outlook: Given that 3Q24 GDP growth matched our expectations (5.3%; 2Q24: 5.9%) and is projected to moderate further in the final quarter to 4.6% as the economy normalises, we maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast at 5.0% (2023: 3.6%) and expect it to moderate slightly to 4.8% in 2025.

Source: Kenanga Research - 12 Dec 2024