Kenanga Research & Investment

Indonesia External Trade - Exports moderated in December; overall growth rebounded modestly in 2024

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Publish date: Thu, 16 Jan 2025, 09:50 AM
  • Exports slowed in December (4.8% YoY; Nov: 9.1%), below market expectations (7.4%). Overall, 2024 export growth rebounded modestly to 2.3% (2023: -11.3%), exceeding our forecast of 0.8%
    • MoM (-2.2 %; Nov: -1.7%): contracted for the second straight month.
  • Lower exports due to slower non-O&G demand and weak shipments to China
    • Non-O&G (4.8%; Nov: 9.5%): Slowed as strong agriculture growth (64.0%; Nov: 56.7%) was offset by moderate growth of manufacturing (12.2%; Nov: 13.9%) and continued mining weakness (-23.4%; Nov: -10.6%).
    • By top destination: Shipments to China slowed sharply (0.4%; Nov: 15.5%) with Japan contracting (-10.2%; Nov: 2.8%) weighing on overall growth. Notably, shipments to the US (19.2%; Nov: 20.7%) remained relatively stable.
    • O&G (4.1%; Nov: 2.5%): Reached a five-month high, supported by a mining rebound (-8.8%; Nov: 23.3%).
  • Imports surged in December (11.1%; Nov: 0.2%) to a two-month high, well above consensus (4.7%) led by non-O&G (13.9%; Nov: 6.0%)
    • By category: A broad-based recovery was driven by a strong rebound in capital goods (19.6%; Nov: -1.7%), followed by consumer goods (12.4%; Nov: 0.6%) and raw materials (8.8%; Nov: 0.7%).
    • MoM: rebounded strongly (8.1%; Nov: -10.7%) after experiencing a sharp contraction in the previous month.
  • Trade surplus narrowed (USD2.2b; Nov: USD4.4b) to a five-month low, below consensus (USD3.7b), as import growth outpaced export on a YoY basis
    • Total trade: Expanded (7.7% YoY; Nov: 4.9%), a two-month high.
  • We revise 2025 export growth to 6.1% from 9.8%, reflecting caution over China's economic recovery
    • Exports outperformed house expectations in 2024, and positive momentum is expected to carry into 2025.
    • Cautious Outlook: Nevertheless, we are pencilling a cautious outlook as external trade remains susceptible to downside risks, particularly from uncertainties in China's economic recovery and the impact of policy shifts in the new US administration.

Source: Kenanga Research - 16 Jan 2025

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