NEW YORK: Waning global enthusiasm for aggressive interest-rate increases may dominate the dozen or so central-bank decisions due this week.

In the wake of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) quarter-point move - and a market rally driven by investor euphoria that the inflation shock is finally fading - its peers are already well on the way to stopping as well.

Among the highlights this week, both the Reserve Bank of Australia tomorrow and the Reserve Bank of India the following day will probably deliver quarter-point hikes in borrowing costs that might mark their final salvos for now.

Poland’s central bank has already halted rate increases and will probably ratify that view on Thursday, while its Romanian counterpart may decide to do the same.

Even in Latin America, where monetary officials stood out in the past couple of years for their early hawkish reaction to surging prices, rate-hiking cycles are running out of steam, not least because of how far they’ve already advanced.

Mexico’s central bank, while still determined to act against inflation, may deliver only a quarter-point increase - its smallest move since 2021.

Some monetary officials are still keeping up a hawkish demeanour despite the shifting backdrop. Witness the European Central Bank (ECB), which hiked by 50 basis points last Thursday and all but promised to do the same in March.

Icelandic policy makers may also increase by the same amount on Wednesday, possibly echoed by Sweden’s Riksbank on Thursday.

But as investors have noticed, the hiking fever globally is no longer at its height.

And with Russia’s central bank meeting last Friday possibly shifting the focus to monetary easing, financial markets are inevitably starting to wonder when the others will follow suit.

Elsewhere, investors finally get a look at the delayed release of German inflation for January, and the Bank of Canada will publish minutes for the first time.

There’s not much on the US calendar, though still plenty for investors to digest after a week in which Fed chair Jerome Powell didn’t push back against a market rally and then the monthly payrolls report appeared to show a huge increase in hiring.

Among the numbers due, jobless claims on Thursday may again indicate a tight labour market, and the University of Michigan report on Friday will update inflation expectations.

About a half-dozen central bankers are due to speak, including New York Fed president John Williams, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Powell himself.

In Canada, governor Tiff Macklem will deliver his first speech since raising borrowing costs for an eighth-straight - and potentially final - time. His remarks tomorrow are likely to focus on how the Bank of Canada will interpret the trailing effects of 425 basis points of hikes since March.

The next day, the Ottawa-based central bank will offer the public a glimpse of its discussions before the Jan 25 decision that saw officials signal their intent to move to the sidelines after raising the benchmark rate to 4.5% - the highest in 15 years.

The Bank of Canada, which unlike the Federal Reserve has never published minutes, announced in September it would accept an International Monetary Fund recommendation and begin releasing summaries of its deliberations.

On Friday, Canada’s policy makers will get the first of three major indicators before their March rate decision.

Economists expect January’s labour force survey to show the job market starting to loosen as output slows toward a potential stall.

Aside from the rate decisions in Australia and India, the primary focus in the region will be on China.

Factory-gate prices due there on Friday may show a fourth month of annual declines, following drops in commodity costs.

Consumer Price Index data the same day probably accelerated in January because of faster price increases in food and other categories.

Those numbers may garner particular attention from global policy makers worried that China’s reopening from Covid lockdowns could fuel another inflation surge around the world.

Elsewhere, in Japan - where the central bank is unconvinced that price growth is high enough - labour cash earnings data will point to the strength of wages.

In the wake of the ECB’s big rate-hike decision, comments by its officials will be closely monitored.

Among those scheduled to speak are vice- president Luis de Guindos, executive board member Isabel Schnabel, and central-bank governors from Austria, Italy and Spain.

The European Commission’s quarterly forecasts may also be a highlight. Having previously predicted a recession in the euro region, officials may lift their projections after a stronger-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter.

 - Bloomberg