Koon Yew Yin's Blog

My biggest mistake in not selling - Koon Yew Yin

Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Mon, 08 Feb 2016, 07:31 PM
An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.

All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin

As I said before, no share can go up or go down indefinitely for whatever reason. When it is up, you must sell some so that you have money to buy when it is down. My biggest mistake is that I fell in love with my shares so much that I did not sell when they were at their peak.

EGO: Ego is the root of my problem. I am so proud to have found shares that went up a few hundred per cent within a couple of years and if I sold them, I have less shares to boast.

GREED: Another problem I have is greed, which is one of the deadly sins. It can be a virtue or a vice. In the stock market, it encourages investors to work harder to find good stocks to buy and continue to buy but then we forget about selling. That is often one of my biggest mistakes.

From the several articles I have written and published, you would know that I have discovered Latitude, VS, Lii Hen and a few other stocks which have gone up a few hundred per cent in the last couple of years. But my big mistake is that I always find difficulty in selling. I fall in love with my discoveries and I did not sell more when their prices were peaking.    

A few days ago I posted an article with the title “ Export manufacturers share prices dropped too much” where I said that due to the 3.5% strengthening of our Ringgit their share prices dropped too much. Most investors overreact to good or bad news. 

The MYR per USD chart shows the average rate for the last 3 months was Rm 4.30 to one USD and the rate on 5th . Feb 2016 was Rm 4.15 to one USD, a 15 sen or 3.5% drop. Smart investors should be able to see that this 3.5% strengthening of our Ringgit should not cause the export manufacturers share prices to drop more about 20%. For example:

VS dropped from Rm 1.68 to Rm 1.32 a drop of 21%. Note 1st Q eps was 5.22 sen. 

Focus Lumber dropped from Rm 3.02 to Rm 2.28 a drop of 25%.Note EPS for last 3 Q was 3.22, 7.8 and  9.35 sen respectively. It has no borrowing. Some of its cash saving is in US$.

Chin Well dropped from Rm 2.28 to Rm 1.84 a drop of 19%. Note 1st Q EPS was 6.07 sen.

Latitude dropped from Rm 8.05 to Rm 6.63, a drop of 18%. Note 1st Q EPS 28.95 sen. It has about Rm 200 million cash saving and some portion is in US$ deposit.

Lii Hen dropped from Rm 2.97 to Rm 2.35, a drop of 21%. Note EPS for last 3 Q were 6, 7, and 8.6 sen. It is cash rich and no borrowing.

If I had sold more when their prices were at or near their top, I would have a lot more cash to buy back when they subsequently dropped so much.

Last night, on Chinese New Year eve, Ooi Teik Bee rang me to seek my opinion regarding the strengthening of our Ringgit. He said that he has spoken to a highly respected investor who said that due to the bad publicity of our political situation, he thinks that our Ringgit will continue to be weak which is good for exporters.

I also agree that our Ringgit will continue to be weak and I foresee more foreign funds will come back to take advantage of our weak Ringgit.

Most investors have difficulty in selling. As I have learned a humble lesson in not selling, I hope this article will help you improve your investing skill to make more money.

I wish you a happy and prosperous Chines New Year.

Discussions
5 people like this. Showing 50 of 206 comments

invest1188

I see myr will break 3.80, let see

2016-02-10 18:44

invest1188

3 strong points why ringgit will up, , even oil price drop less than 30, myr not real weakening, myr reserve up in few recent mths, usd will delay rate increase

2016-02-10 18:49

invest1188

Quickly move to index consumer

2016-02-10 18:50

pathfinder

One good reason why the rm has not fallen is the recent emergence of buying by foreign investors. These guys change direction quickly so I would not be so sure about the rm gaining.

2016-02-10 21:31

coolinvestor

Looking back the previous year when ringgit falls. There are so far 2 main reasons i noticed that caused the ringgit to fall. Ringgit depreciating is a boon to exporters yes but this is only on the outside. A little ringgit rise will not simply cause the exporters to die...this is simple logic and some exporters have been doing business well even before the ringgit was dropping from 3.80

2 reasons i believe why rm is still down.
1. Political uncertainty. ..with 1mdb n the funny news on it this will cause investors to lose confidence in doing business in msia. Even bank negara zeti said it. This is a no brainer. If investors lose confidence in msia what do they do? They sell their holdings n cabut. Hence rm drops. Foreign holdings in klse has drop a lot especially from stocks n bonds. I believe last year up to rm1bil has left the klse..correct me if i am wrong. Thats why i belive rm will not go up but down. It may just get stuck now. We dun know. But to regain 3.80 i dun think so...until confidence comes back

2. Oil price.
Didnt anyone noticed that last year oil price goes down our rm start to wobble n then topple over? Unfortunately outside investors know our oil is our main revenue n budget 22%
http://www.eog-asia.com/malaysian-oil-and-gas-sector-to-account-for-22...
Hence its a perception problem. Noticed that our rm shoot up when oil up last 2 weeks.

Cheers

2016-02-10 21:51

coolinvestor

I belive rm will hover around 4.10 n below due to these 2 problems. Investor lose confidence in our gov...means our bonds may get rerated to lower inv grade..causing even more ppl to cabut. Its hard to say. Continually monitor the news

2016-02-10 21:55

pang72

Uncle biggest problem now was had wrote this article. People started to read his mind that he will start selling all his on hand stocks...
All his holding were started to fall from FL, latitude , vs, hevea...

2016-02-10 22:05

pang72

Uncle started articles to promote his stocks. Today he started articles to ruin his stocks...

2016-02-10 22:07

coolinvestor

I am merely stating the insights and things i saw before and reading from news and the internet. I believe in being neutral and objective and learning from ppl regardless of whom thry are. Knowledge is power.

Only those idiotic uneducated imbecilic fools who does not know how to be resourceful nor collect good info to learn n refine from may doom themselves to a lifetime of failure and emotional blame games.

I rest my case. Happy cny all!

2016-02-10 22:21

murali

As long as u can make the old man happy u shall b able to makan free n make money easily

2016-02-10 22:23

uncle988

STOP criticism in i3, nothing is wrong or right. Different people will have different point of view. We are here to share our thoughts and help each other to make more money. Please leave this forum a peaceful place for blogging.

2016-02-10 22:29

Apollo Ang

i think you been selling bit by bit

2016-02-11 09:30

Apollo Ang

buy 10 lots sell 20 lots

2016-02-11 09:31

PureBULL .

Uncle KYY, the fact is u r truly the super investor.

Your list of stocks r all great winning stocks that fly really high to the new blue skies.
Each time I used my program to scan, your stocks always appeared among my short list of great stocks.
All great stocks r explosive up trending stocks with huge Primary growth wave/phase that is clearly seen on week charts.
Unless 1 is overly greedy, they r so easy to time the selling on the way up to capture the mega profits. Is A complete waste, if it is not edi done so.

These r ex. of the selling calls:
i. On [12/20/2015 3:47:23 PM] + 12 hrs,
a friend of my with lots of POHUAT, asked me about this great winning stock.
My reply then was,

It has graduated but attempted to do master. it could fail at phd anytime!
great caution is required.
This statement applies to all great winning stocks at their tops = plan your selling/exit.
He's deeply in love, he sold only 20k shares at rm2.02.

ii. Shouted on Jan 5, 2016 05:11 PM | Report Abuse C = 156.
VS 's valuation is grossly over-stretched by the recent WA issue.
Might be timely to switch out.

iii. Shouted on Jan 5, 2016 05:07 PM | Report Abuse C=173.
HEVEA 's valuation is grossly over-stretched by the recent WA issue.
Might be timely to switch out....

All great winning stocks after the explosive growth phase will be 'macam sotong'. It got to be a fair deal to the mkt, right?

U r most likely surrounded by too many FA practitioners who never believe in timing the mkt. I don't understand their behavior.
Some of these FA fanatics were so cynical to my articles.
1 even do lol on me.

This time looks critical. IF mkt can recover, well n good.
IF not, those below 34 who have never seen a mkt crash before, take extra precaution.

2016-02-11 11:54

timetokoon

Super investor latest update. -19.51% http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/53120.jsp

2016-02-11 11:56

murali

Koon Koon is still sitting on reasonable profit now as his entry cost was much lower than the prices on 31 Dec 2015. But those who followed his calls during Dec 2015 is a different story....

The question is shall Koon Koon continue to sell now to protect his profit??? If not later he will be more regret....

2016-02-11 11:59

murali

Trust me, when he came here to promote a certain counter, he should be oredi sitting on 30-40% paper profit at least..

2016-02-11 12:00

murali

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/87671.jsp

Check the prices level on these counters

2016-02-11 12:02

soros228

Murali, I almost kena, bought CW at 1.86; sold at 1.87.
Because I see CW cannot cross 1.90.
Otherwise Mampui Liao.

2016-02-11 12:07

murali

Follow the money follow the trend...play safe...cant see the theme play yet...maybe no theme play in 2016 but some stock will still shine...BJcorp could be one of them...anyway keep more cash to face the uncertainty...who knows may have 50-70% discount....

2016-02-11 12:11

soros228

Bcorp, I don't want la.

2016-02-11 12:13

murali

Having said so I think some Export Co are still solid lah...do yr homework...will be happy to buy some if they sell cheap cheap

2016-02-11 12:14

Apollo Ang

cheap becomes cheaper. don't buy. this method pump and dump.uncle been selling now cos people think it's cheap to went in. don't ever look at the highest price when buy. should look at the lowest. example vs lowest is only 50cts now still 1.25 still very high compare to last year only

2016-02-11 14:31

Apollo Ang

vs should be below 1.00. canone still 4.22 lowest only below 2.00 still far away from buying

2016-02-11 14:33

Apollo Ang

export and glove stocks still very high and unrealistic price

2016-02-11 14:34

Apollo Ang

even USD up also no use if low demand

2016-02-11 14:40

Apollo Ang

in 1997-98 ringgit at 4.80 vs USD also export stocks slump cos of low demand

2016-02-11 14:41

i4investor

I don't think stock god didn't sell any...

2016-02-11 15:06

ZakKen

He who fancies himself a super investor rarely stays one for long.

2016-02-11 19:43

tnsduntalkokkk

e

2016-02-11 19:43

Apollo Ang

he sure sold lah or else who been dumping

2016-02-11 23:28

gorengkaki

Happy Chinese New Year! It is not just about currency now, people is concern on the overall global economy health. MYR may go weaker, so do USD. Nobody knows. Don't throw the blame here on Koon, invest at your own risk, set you own take profit and cut loss point. Do not blindly and stupidly follow. He is not obliged to inform you immediately when he start selling or buying, unless he is substantial shareholder. Even so, it will take time for the information to reach you.

2016-02-12 01:42

gorengkaki

Do not need to thank Koon too if you earn by following his tips as you are making your own investment decision. Everyone wishes to earn money, but, back to the basic, where does the money come from?

2016-02-12 01:50

tonytonychopper

Good morning! Happy Chinese New Year~

I'm having 4 pieces of dried meats as breakfast~ What are you eating?

When to sell? I sell a stock when it no longer meets... aiyo, hard to type with one hand. Just check out this link.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/67260.jsp

If you bought latitud right after reading the article posted by KC, you probably wouldn't worry much about the stock price at this moment.

A set of buying rules is impor

2016-02-12 08:14

tonytonychopper

Never mind. I clicked wrongly. Will type again. Peace. *submerging..

2016-02-12 08:18

Jester

gorengkaki above is right. You must do your own research. Don't follow blindly. That is the reason you are buying at high people.

Especially new investors, why do you need to follow blindly? If your idol said stock A is good at MYR 1, you need to do some research first if the stock can go up further and what is the downside risk. It could be that your idol buying price is MYR 0.5 and looking to sell at MYR 1.2 (hehehe).

In this case, not to say something bad about Uncle Koon (he has his own good and bad) but I will think of starting to buy (some of the good stocks I have done my research) because every time he said he is buying he has already accumulate enough to sell later. This time around I think he wants the price to fall so that he can collect more. Think people think. haha

2016-02-12 08:32

leslieroycarter

The best is to follow market trends but take cautious when it rises too much for no apparent reasons. Buy slowly in weak market for the good n fundamentally strong shares because we do not know how low is low....This is more like defensive trading but of cause u must do most selling when the stock hit your TP.

2016-02-12 08:34

Jester

leslieroycarter, you are absolutely right. Having a strategy is paramount. For example, setting a trailing cut loss is good to avoid these kind of problem.

2016-02-12 09:01

chc2222

Uncle Koon, your VS dropped to RM1.15 already. Why no support???? Busy selling is it??? HAHAHHAHAHH

2016-02-12 09:51

cherry88

Finally, he admitted his mistakes.

2016-02-12 11:29

cherry88

He should be in margin call position, and time to make big decision on stocks he holds

2016-02-12 11:29

gorengkaki

Nothing too worry of Koon. At his capacity, he should have a team of expertise that help managing his holding and risks. That is the thing that he never disclose. Too bad if he does not has one...

2016-02-12 11:59

timetokoon

Super investor never cut loss. Ah Koon update -21.68% http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/53120.jsp

2016-02-12 12:01

enning22

the global markets are not sinking into recession, but currently experiencing a short term adjustment , caused by excessive fall in oil price. This obviously in need of times to adjust,The strengthening of ringgit is unexpected,it could be just seasional.

2016-02-12 17:23

W16Y

Maybe Mr Koon can share with us on stocks in his Radar which he have not Buy in yet instead of those he already have substantial shareholding

2016-02-15 09:22

gray

Last night, on Chinese New Year eve, Ooi Teik Bee rang me to seek my opinion regarding the strengthening of our Ringgit. He said that he has spoken to a highly respected investor who said that due to the bad publicity of our political situation, he thinks that our Ringgit will continue to be weak which is good for exporters.

2016-02-15 14:14

princehero

i believe ringgit will strengthen ... cos even the oil drop below usd 30 our ringgit still can maintain around that range...

2016-02-15 21:12

princehero

maybe see who the new bank governor in april...

2016-02-15 21:14

titus

Malaysia still have a highly respected bank governor - Zeti. Wait till she retire in April and i believed it might affect ringgit. Furthermore, Malaysia already burn 1/3 foreign currency to defend the ringgit.

2016-02-15 21:17

princehero

it's extremely difficult to time the selling period.. even more difficult than timing the buying period... sometimes with emotion it can really spike 20 to even 50% of it's actual value.. realize one way is when myself felt tat good times definitely will continue come rain or shine then it's a big signal to sell.....

2016-02-15 21:51

Post a Comment