Investing theory 3 - the story behind PE50
THE STORY BEHIND INVESTING ON MARGIN, AND WHAT TO BUY (GKENT???)
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Publish date: Tue, 26 Mar 2019, 11:47 PM
FOR MY OTHER INVESTING THEORIES AND PHILOSOPHIES:
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip1/
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip2/
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip1/
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip2/
HI ALL, PHILIP HERE, WITH SOME GRAVE ADVICE ON INVESTING USING MARGIN. NOTE THE WORD INVESTING, VERSUS TRADING. AND A NEW INVESTMENT ON GKENT.
For most people who dont have enough cash, they believe that investing on margin is a wonderful thing. It is FAR from wonderful, it can be a treacherous method of playing with fire... if you do not know what you are doing.
Here are the salient points, using my broker MAYBANK as an example.
IF YOU INVEST WITH CASH, MAYBANK CHARGES YOU 0.1% BROKERAGE FEES, OR MINIMUM PER TRANSACTION OF RM8.
This is a wonderful way of investing, as you use what cash you have, and nothing more. Here you only have to consider one thing, how much is the stamp duty (some stocks have none), how much is the clearance fees and extra costs, and what is the minimum amount you need to have to invest in a stock to reduce these transactional costs (in this case, minimum should be RM8000, anything less would not be efficient).
To be fair, this is still better than the old days when you had to go through remisiers who would charge 0.6% per transaction (or more) depending on who you talk to. With the low rates for own cash investment, basically it comes down to your stock picking skill ( and dividends) to bring you across.
The most important point to learn here is fractional costs is the DEVIL! The more you trade, the more fractional costs you incur, the more fractional costs you incur the more damage you do to your financial base which is your capital. More importantly, holding multiple stocks with small positions also cause a lot of other fractional costs in terms of the brokerage fees for handling your dividends that you get.
Imagine if you have 30 stocks with 5K exposure each, yes you have 150K worth of stocks, but when you receive your dividends, you will notice a lot of fractional costs. 5K at 3% dividend is around RM150. Add in the Maybank dividend interest and payment fee of RM5.83, duplicate of dividend tax voucher of RM5.30, the SST charges from the new enactments, stamp duty, etc etc etc, you will quickly realize your 3% dividend is no longer that wonderful.
I paraphrase the words of Monish Prabai,
FEW BETS
BIG BETS
INFREQUENT BETS
Now, if you start investing with margin, the stakes are upped much, much higher.
IF YOU INVEST WITH MARGIN, MAYBANK CHARGES YOU 0.42% per transaction, OR A MINIMUM PER TRANSACTION OF RM12.
On top of this additional cost, you need to plan around the yearly interest rate charged by the bank (margin can be addictive, good luck telling yourself you wont be using it throughout the year), which is Base Rate (BR) 3.2% + 3.65% = 6.9%.
Basically, what I am trying to tell you is, you need to be able to plan your investing strategy behind a yearly cost wall of 6.9% + 0.42% (of initial purchase + 0.42% (of exit purchase) + stamping fees + processing fees before you see a dime of money.
You need to be able to earn 8% return per annum on your investments to break even on the leverage, and you need to average 14.15% return per year over passive index investing (aka EPF, ASB, FIXED DEPOSIT all return at least 4.25% - 7% ) for it to be worth your time doing active investing using risky leverage.
At a minimum margin financing of RM50,000, you need to average a return of RM4K yearly to pay off Maybank, and at least 7K to be on par with EPF and better than FIX DEPOSIT! These are the costs you need to understand before applying leverage.
The returns can be quite exciting, BUT YOU HAVE TO KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING!
Now, having said that, how can one invest safely using margin?
I have recently begun to try out margin financing again, as ever since I have started posting up my thoughts and investment concepts online, I have been blessed with many stock ideas and investment proposed by I3 investing community. So many ideas, so little money! Lately a lot of very good companies have come under my view, all from kind information scuttlebutted from you my dear I3 people. Companies which I believe have very good room to grow in the long run, and have a wonderful moat.
With that in mind,
I put up a small amount of my legacy portfolio using margin exposure, with a RM1 million exposure. Why so small an amount of margin you may wonder? This is because of another method in which Maybank can earn money from you. For any unitilized margin given out above RM250,000, there is a 1% commitment fee which is based on the daily unutilized portion of the drawing limit and charged monthly.
SO, DOES MAYBANK ALWAYS WIN?
Not necessarily.
I have used my excess cash and full margin to take a 1M share position in GKENT (at a average purchase price of RM1.12) yesterday after the announcement of results. I have to thank a few young commenters for that piece of wonderful stock tip, making this the 6th stock I am investing in Bursa in the past 10 years. (I continue to monitor my NASDAQ stock STNE closely).
How do I protect myself and my MARGIN INVESTMENT?
Firstly, understand the company financials GKENT. If you look closely, buying it at today's figures, I am paying 630 million for a company that has a book value of RM500 million. However, it is a very cash rich company, to the tune of 260 million - 60 million debt = 200 million in CASH. What this means is if I buy over the whole company for 630 million, I still have cash in the bank of 200 million, meaning I am actually buying the company for 430 million, or RM0.77 per share.
Sounds like a good deal? It gets better. For the price I paid, I am also getting 3.5 cents DIVIDEND next month. meaning for my investment of 1.12, I get back 3.1% dividend yield IMMEDIATELY, which is great (discount on my purchase price!). Historically, GKENT get between 7 cents to 9 cents dividend a year, which gives me a yield of around 6% at RM1.12 price. This goes a long way in paying off that margin loan that I was getting from Maybank (6.9% remember?).
This year as we all know is a bad year for GKENT, with a drop in revenue from 616 million (and net profit of 124 million), to a low of 430 million (and a net profit of 84 million). However is the drop fairly priced? Did it lose money this year? Has GKENT ever had a losing quarter? The answer is definitely NO. I believe it is very very oversold. The general selling panic last year in May after elections has caused it to drop from a high of RM4 to a low of RM1.12 presents a wonderful buying opportunity of a stock that has been unfairly punished due to the unknowns of a changing government (but unchanging business fundamentals).
Consider this, when the change of government happen, everyone is betting on a change of business opportunity. OPCOM WAS PUSHED up from 0.43 to 0.9, but dropped to 63 cents. eden went up from 9 cents to 31 cents, thriven went up from 15 cents to 43 cents. SO WHAT? the stock market is a popularity contest in the short term, but in the long term it is a weighing machine. Politically motivated stocks will never do well in the long run.
Now, GKENT has also suffered a big drop from RM4 all the way down to 82 cents. But since then, it has been on the comeback trail, going all the way up to 1.12 on 25th march 2019. What has changed? basically nothing much. The business is still solid, it is still paying you 6% dividend a year even in a horrible challenging year, it is still very profitable (average net profit margin of 19%), it is still doing 15% return on equity. Did I mention they are only paying 46% of their net profits as dividends? still more room to grow!
However most importantly, the government has realized, that even though they want to practise transparency, they still have to go through to best companies to complete its projects. So in the end they still award the job to the best performing company (which has ALWAYS PULLED THROUGH AND HANDED OVER PROJECTS)
i.e. IT HAS TO GO THROUGH A SPECIALIST COMPANY, GEORGE KENT ( since 1938)
GKENT is one of the few Malaysian companies that is highly qualified to do LRT projects. It's water metering business is of a world standard, it exports to 40 countries internationally. It does projects in many countries. Its core capabilities in rail transportation, water infrastructure and hospitals make it a specialist company that LGE has no choice but to award to. Yes GKENT did a good job in Penang as well with the WTP works.
And awarded it has. Let me paraphrase:
Resilient Water Meter Business Water meter orders continue to be strong. (new water meter wins in singapore and hong kong)
The Group had in the year under review won the Public Utilities Board of Singapore’s (PUB) tender to deliver 110,000 meters over six months beginning February 2019. This is the 4th consecutive win by George Kent to supply water meters to PUB since 2012. The Group is actively investing substantial resources to expand its strong base of over 40 countries around the world to broaden its income base.
* this is not much, but still high margin, rough estimate for DN15 PSM-T meters is around RM200 each, so we are looking at around 20+ million income, with 20% margins, not to bad. in all I am hoping for at least 140 million in metering revenue for FY2020.
Construction Business Fundamentals Intact (renegotiated and accepted the LRT project)
On 25 January 2019, MRCB George Kent Sdn Bhd ("JV Co") signed the biggest turnkey contract the new Government has issued at RM11.8 billion. The JV Co has the necessary experience to deliver the project as both JV partners have actively participated in past rail projects in the country.
* having said that this is a fixed price contract, which is usually very dangerous for companies as delays and cost overruns are borne by the supplier instead of the client VO. But I have faith in GKent. Personally the only reason why I believe the original LRT3 costs were so high at 31 billion was due to some kickbacks and agreements to pay for the project. If done properly and done well, based on international benchmarks (world bank estimates are 39M usd per km in europe, and 17m usd per km in china for metro), at 40 km for lrt3 we are looking at 1.6 billion usd costs, or around 8 billion ringgit cost. at 11.8 billion, it is still very doable if no corruption is involved. (LGE monitor closely). I'm assuming with the new contractuals from PDP to FPC we are looking at higher net profit for the cost absorbtion. assuming instead of 6%, they are going for 10% net margins, we are looking for around 1.18 billion net profit to be split between MRCB and GKENT. If GKENT performs and completes on time, this result will give GKENT 600 million in new earnings over the ensuing years, the entire market cap right now.
I am happy with the renegotiation. This shows no favouritism from the new government, and is the biggest project awarded by the new PH government to a so called BN crony company. Moat companies will always find a way.
The Group is also continuing with the construction of the two Government hospital projects of over RM500 million in contract value. This one is for the projects in putrajaya and selangor previously. So there is big orderbook for the coming years.
For me I see all the downsides behind me, and all the upsides in front of me. Yes taking margin loan is very dangerous, but if George Kent is paying me 6% a year rental to wait and see how it performs? I dont mind waiting at all.
My StoneRaider™ TP? RM3 in 3 years and 3 months. Plus 6% dividend a year.
I hope you learned something new and interesting today,
Philip
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Discussions
5 people like this. Showing 50 of 118 comments
Philip, the professionals call themselves the traders, their strategy is called TA, they use graph and charts and lines and whatever crap they called indicators to time the market. Not much success I would say but yeah that's the closest crystal ball you can get.
2019-03-28 21:18
Thats why raider says this qqq no foresight loh....!!
Like that he will go no way in investment loh....!!
Put it this way mah....!!
If everything like the star is obvious align and supported with a few good result, do u think gkent is rm 1.14 or Rm 2.00 leh ??
The point is that Philip flasher pick Gkent, when its price is still very low is based on wisdom, judgement and foresight that qqq cannot comprehend loh..!!
When u talkabout 6 sense, foresight and wisdom, ordinary soul like qqq who lack all these qualities and who use to plp everytime ,will find difficulty to understand mah....!!
Posted by qqq3 > Mar 28, 2019 9:12 PM | Report Abuse
One can buy Gkent at $ 1 and hope it goes to $ 4 in 5 years........ but more typically unless it is a long term institution fund, for a retail he is more likely to run out of patience before it matures.....and in this case with 2-3 quarters of disappointing results ahead, what lies ahead for the retail.?
Or one can buy only when a trend is established and supported by good results and ride the trend for what it is worth....Dali calls it when the stars align.
2019-03-28 21:23
For those who think GKent is only a bn crony with no future.
>>>>>
KUALA LUMPUR: George Kent (M) Bhd is optimistic the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government will appreciate the company’s expertise as a rail systems specialist, although it has been long perceived as a Barisan Nasional (BN)-friendly company.
“If the current government does not like us, it would not have allowed us to continue with the Light Railway Transit 3 (LRT 3) project,” said independent non- executive director Datuk Paduka Keizrul Abdullah (pix).
George Kent is labelled a “crony” of the previous BN-led government, as it is a known fact that chairman Tan Sri Tan Kay Hock, who controls 42.21% of the company’s equity, was a golfing buddy of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak.
However, Keizrul discounted the notion that the chairman’s close relationship with Najib would be a stumbling block for the company to secure future projects from the present government.
“People always assumed that we secured our past jobs because of the ‘BN connection’.
“In fact, we secured all our jobs, including our first mega project, the Ampang-Line LRT extension, via an open tender instead of negotiated contracts,” he told Bernama.
2019-03-29 08:13
Wah...so confidence...and margin play also. Becareful if George Kent drop to 90sen margin call will come after you. Can handle pressure or not. Don't play..play...
2019-03-29 09:12
raider, its not foresight that I lack......$ 4 in 5 years is not foresight, it is imagination. I make it up. It is patience I lack.
I only have patience for best of the best. Other than that I am a trader. If I buy every idea out there, I will be like your calvin, 10% spread over 50 stocks. Because with enough imagination every stock also can buy. With enough imagination, also 99.9% of the shares are rubbish.
2019-03-29 09:34
The way u act and said, it is already obvious that u lack foresight and wisdom loh...!!
I understand u r very concerned on this lack of foresight thing, but it is ok loh, foresight is a gifted thing, either u have it or u don loh......!!
But if u don have foresight, it is not end of the world for u loh, u just need to know your limitation & learn to live with the fact u have no foresight & most importantly, u do not over commit in stock market bcos u r handicap by missing oomph mah...!!
Posted by qqq3 > Mar 29, 2019 9:34 AM | Report Abuse
raider, its not foresight that I lack......$ 4 in 5 years is not foresight, it is imagination. I make it up. It is patience I lack.
I only have patience for best of the best. Other than that I am a trader. If I buy every idea out there, I will be like your calvin, 10% spread over 50 stocks. Because with enough imagination every stock also can buy. With enough imagination, also 99.9% of the shares are rubbish.
2019-03-29 09:52
I really doubt if I will get margin call, I am only using around 1m of margin trading from my total Maybank portfolio, more than 10:1 ratio. Even if entire margin drop to zero I think I will still be ok.
2019-03-29 10:31
k GKent) Philip > Mar 29, 2019 8:13 AM | Report Abuse
“In fact, we secured all our jobs, including our first mega project, the Ampang-Line LRT extension, via an open tender instead of negotiated contracts,” he told Bernama.
========
that is what they always say....and that one, they missed a lot of datelines.
2019-03-29 11:51
The price of Gkent already adjusted from Rm 4.00 mah....!!
Posted by qqq3 > Mar 29, 2019 11:51 AM | Report Abuse
k GKent) Philip > Mar 29, 2019 8:13 AM | Report Abuse
“In fact, we secured all our jobs, including our first mega project, the Ampang-Line LRT extension, via an open tender instead of negotiated contracts,” he told Bernama.
========
that is what they always say....and that one, they missed a lot of datelines.
2019-03-29 12:05
You mean it was a negotiated contract? Okok learn something new everyday.
2019-03-29 12:07
Patience is the most important virtue in stock market.
But not patience in buying every stock and waiting for it to go up.
But patience in waiting for next KYY stock and if the stars align, 50% - 100% in 4 weeks. sailang and all and Sell before KYY sells.
A lot of people made a lot of money from KYY stocks in last 3 months, I included.
Its risk free money woh....and very fast money. ...so just wait lah.
2019-03-29 16:56
U r naive loh...why kyy wants to tell u leh ??
Even he tell u...there is ulterior motive mah....!!
Posted by qqq3 > Mar 29, 2019 4:56 PM | Report Abuse
Patience is the most important virtue in stock market.
But not patience in buying every stock and waiting for it to go up.
But patience in waiting for next KYY stock and if the stars align, 50% - 100% in 4 weeks. sailang and all and Sell before KYY sells.
A lot of people made a lot of money from KYY stocks in last 3 months, I included.
Its risk free money woh....and very fast money. ...so just wait lah.
2019-03-29 17:00
y stockraider > Mar 29, 2019 5:00 PM | Report Abuse
U r naive loh...why kyy wants to tell u leh ??
=========
who cares about being naive as long as make money?
2019-03-29 17:01
I have no more OG stocks for some time already except for Armada which is my own pick.
2019-03-29 17:02
How to master the longterm investment foresight leh ??
If buying into SAPE is base on investment foresight, the same can be said & applied to Gkent too mah....!!
Posted by stockraider > Mar 26, 2019 10:31 AM | Report Abuse X
The wise man eyes are in his head
A wise person sees with not just the physical pair of eyes
He sees with his "eyes in his head"
Or he uses his mind to "see"
Not just his physical eyes only
So we must see ahead of time
See 6 months down the road or 12 months or even 2 years or 3 years ahead
What are the companies that will do well then?
What are the opportunities and what are the pitfalls?
See ahead of time
What are the changes now that will alter the status 6 months or 12 months or 2 years down the road?
That is how we see with "eyes in our head".
Not only see & use your brain to think mah.....!!
Make use of your 6 senses to help u make monies loh...!!
Sapnrg in 3 yrs time will be reporting Rm 3b to Rm 5b profit, do u see sapnrg share price still at current low Rm 0.365 leh ?
Most importantly the next 6 to 12 mths there will have positive operations profits coming, profit on disposal oil field of Rm 2.0 billion and potential writeback of impairment previously of rm 3.0 billion as more & more unutilized assets put to good use to service the increasing oil industry loh..!!
With contract in hand secured already rm 19.3 billion, it is likely the huge contract wins will ballooned to record rm 40.0 billion.
Sapnrg is already have the biggest contract award from petronas in msia compare to the rest of OnG companies together combine, and this trend is still growing loh....!!
The share price is going towards increasing day by day mode soon loh....!!
2019-03-29 18:49
But my buying of gkent is based on fundamentals and business sense. Gkent is a highly profitable company with 20% bet profit margins, 15% roe, never had a loss making quarter, 200 million net cash, and also got 6% dividend yield. Even if GKent perform just a little, it will be profitable for me. Plus got mrt2, lrt3 and possibility of ecrl.
Jumping over a baby versus doing high jump versus jumping over 12 story buildings, I prefer high possibility vs low possibility myself personally.
>>>>
If buying into SAPE is base on investment foresight, the same can be said & applied to Gkent too mah....!!
2019-03-29 20:35
I mean there is such a thing as investment foresight, but think about it, if you want to put words into numbers, jumping over a 33 story + goes like this:
For sapnrg, during it's 2014-2015 peak, how many shares outstanding?
Today:
After the 5:3 rights issue dilution you have 16 billion outstanding shares.
Then you have 1 billion of warrants that can convert at 42 cents which expire in 2026.
Then you have another 2.4 billion preferred shares that pays 5% that is convertible.
You literally have around 20 billion shares to dilute with. Sapnrg would have to make more money than PCHEM to mean anything in the future. And I expect more rights issues to come if they want to be debt positive.
Even when the oil price per barrel was 100 USD+ sapnrg never earned more than 1+ billion in profit.
In 3 years time, even if you best wet dream is true, and sape makes 5 billion in earnings every year, they still have barely made a dent in the crazy dilution of sape.
How much higher do you have to jump?
My advice stockraider, listen to Uncle Philip, make some real long term money. Buy GKent, got 6% dividend every year, and if you want wet dream this 630 million dollar company can get ecrl JV (10% of 50 billion project is 5 billion profit), lrt3( 10% of 50%jv of 11.8 billion contract is 630 million profit), mrt2 (10% of 1 billion is 100 million profit), got 140 million water meter business (20 million profit yearly and growing), then got water treatment plant project internationally and hospital projects (500m) some more. And now become pakatan harapan crony for LGE.
Can sleep well at night, 60 million borrowing vs 260 million cash in the bank, 7 cents dividend even in the worst year of government change policy.
Why hold on to sape? Sell that crap and buy gkent on Monday.
You will still be in time for 3.5 cents dividend. Yes that is 3% dividend yield if you buy it Monday.
And best is it is a sustainable yield (46% of profits).
2019-03-29 21:22
Dear Philip,
Please carefully recalculate the info i have given u loh....!!
What is that 20 billion shares when SAPNRG can generate earnings between rm 3 billion to rm 5 billion a year leh ??
Assuming TP rm 3.00, u r roughly looking at PE 12x to PE 20x in 3 yrs time, if u r basing on earnings between rm 3b to rm 5b loh...!!
Ask yourself very carefully is the Pe 12x to 20x really rich, when u compare to topgloves, yinson, QL these stocks trade at range of Pe 20x to 50x which is nowhere superior compare to sapnrg valuation of rm 3.00?
Thus it is perfectly feasible that SAPNRG is a potential 10 baggers loh.....!!
Raider is not asking u to buy...if u have no confidence, but please check out the wisdom n basis of why raider is so confident loh...!!
It is this wisdom and confidence that spur raider to be very optimistic of the outlook of sapnrg and furthermore this is externally confirm and verify by PNB action mah.....!!
2019-03-29 22:09
WHY ? WHY ? TELL ME WHY ??
Investment in sapnrg are real smart move loh...!!
Thats why PNB is willing to jump in and stick their neck out bcos there are feed of insider priviledge info seeking their support loh...!!
Just ask yourself the investment manager of PNB are just salaried workers, if sapnrg collapse their jobs are less affected compare to them opening their big mouth asking the Board Of Directors to increase exposure in sapnrg loh..!!...why they dare leh ??
Posted by stockraider > Mar 12, 2019 11:24 PM | Report Abuse X
My friend paperlane,
Use head to think lah.....!!
PNB willing to increase their shares from only 12% to 48% ...that means the prospect very very good mah....!!
They don have to increase their stakes to more than their share of 12% mah......!!
Who dares to stick their neck out to propose increasing their stakes, after seeing tabung haji, felda and MARA all got fired for fail investment performance leh ??
They must have positive insider info....they must done deep due diligence to verify, confirm and...check the viability b4 they dare mah....!!
Don forget it is new PH govt...where they are not so lenient like BN mah......!!
furthermore the board of directors of PNB are big guns like zeti they are no mickey mouse directors...they are financial savvys and understand what is value & growth mah...!!
Thus have confidence loh....!!
Raider bro.need your opinion.this company heavily in debt. Even with pnb new fund injection,with 16bil contract,what makes you think it can revive. 16bil contract,what's the margin like,I bet low single digit. Their debt even with latest fund raising still high! Mgt is lousy,this why it was in slump . What makes the so call expert drawing few million salary every yr again and again?? Why pnb want to save them ???
2019-03-29 22:10
Good point loh...!!
1st of all the Rm 17 billion is not a stagnant figure, it will grow to as high as Rm 34 billion order book within this 2 yrs loh...!!
2nd the revenue book in rate will grow to some rm 12 billion from around Rm 6 billion, a year going fwd loh....!!
3rd point is that the oil & gas oilfield will pump in 4x more volume over the next 2 to 3 yrs time, that will contribute Rm 600m to Rm 1.2b pa to sapnrg based on their 50% share loh....!!
4th there are potential writeback of impairment of close to Rm 4 billion of impairment previously already provided in the account, as the assets utilisation rate beginning to increase towards 80% to 90% level from the current only 50% mah....!!
5th the balance of the 50% oil field will appreciate from current about Rm 2 billion value to above rm 8 billion as the oil field increases its extraction and also increase in their proven P2 oil reserve loh....!!
6th There will be a financial cost savings from funding cost that can contribute about rm 400m pa to SAPE bottom line loh...!!
7th These figure do not include the potential cost rationalization of SAPE now undertaken loh...!! It is expected another potential cost savings of Rm 400m pa loh..!!
Posted by newbie8080 > Mar 29, 2019 7:08 PM | Report Abuse
@ stockraider
Current order book only RM17 billion.
It will last them for next 10 quarters with average RM1.7 bil per quarter.
Historically, the company average net profit margin in 2014 was the strongest at between 15% to 20%.
Let's be conservative at 15%.
Thus, in the next 10 quarters, assuming the RM17 bil is fully realised, it would have brought in RM2.55 bil excluding any sale or disposal of asset.
Even if assuming at 20% profit margin, total net profit would only be RM3.4 bil for the entire order book of RM17 billion in the next 10 quarters.
HOW TO ACHIEVE YOUR RM3BIL TO RM5BIL PER ANNUM EARNINGS?????????
2019-03-29 22:11
I know of someone who made a few million from the rebound of Myeg to present level. This guy is a Myeg specialist .
So, will this Gkent rebound like Myeg?
2019-03-30 20:14
THE WONDER OF SAPE INVESTMENT, IT HAS BOTH BUYING INTO COMING GROWING EARNINGS AND TREASURE & HIDDEN TREASURE TO BE UNEARTHED AT HUGE MARGIN MARGIN OF SAFETY PRICE LOH..!!
LEARN FROM THE AGE OLD WISDOM OF THE BIBLE..IT IS THE GOOD GUIDING PRINCIPLE MAH.....!!
Posted by calvintaneng > Mar 31, 2019 9:52 AM | Report Abuse
Try to buy assets at a discount rather than buying earnings. Earnings can change dramatically in a short time. Usually, assets change slowly
Posted by stockraider > Mar 31, 2019 10:09 AM | Report Abuse X
King James Bible (AD 1611) (Matthew 13:44)
Again, the kingdom of heaven is like unto treasure hid in a field; the which when a man hath found, he hideth, and for joy thereof goeth and selleth all that he hath, and buyeth that field.
Jesus said, Again, the kingdom of heaven is like unto treasure hid in a field;
1) KINGDOM OF HEAVEN IS LIKE A TREASURE
2) THE TREASURE IS A HIDDEN TREASURE IN A FIELD
3) THIS TREASURE CAN BE DISCOVERED which a man having found did hide,
4) AND TO GET LEGAL OWNERSHIP OF THE TREASURE HE HAS TO SELL WHAT HE HAS IN ORDER TO BUY THAT FIELD THAT ENTITLES HIM TO LEGAL OWNERSHIP OF THE HID TREASURE in his joy about it, goes and sells all he has and buys that piece of ground.
In the natural world there are 2 groups of people
1) THE HUNTER GATHERER.
THIS MAN GOES HUNTING FOR WILD ANIMALS, BIRDS OR FISHES
HE GATHERS JUNGLE PRODUCE AND WILD FRUITS OR ROOTS
2) THE FARMER & HERDSMAN
HE DOMESTICATES AND REARS COWS, GOATS OR CHICKEN. HE ALSO GROWS FOOD CROPS LIKE RICE, WHEAT OR POTATOES AND CASH CROPS LIKE COTTON, PALM OIL OR RUBBER.
NOW FOREIGN TO THESE TWO IS THE "TREASURE HUNTER"
HE DOES NOT HUNT FOR LIVE THINGS. HE LOOKS FOR DEAD & BURIED THINGS
SO THERE IS A TYPE OF INVESTING UNKNOWN TO DAY TRADERS (THE HUNTER & GATHERER) OR THE LONG TERM INVESTOR (THOSE WHO BUY NESTLE OR PUBLIC BANK)
THIS MAN LOOKS FOR HIDDEN TREASURE!!!
AND AFTER HAVING DISCOVERED OR UNCOVERED IT HE SELLS HIS OTHER LESS PROMISING STUFF (HE SELLS ALL THAT HE HAS) AND BUYS THAT STOCK THAT OWNS THE TREASURE!!
THIS KIND OF INVESTING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE.
WARREN BUFFET INVESTS LIKE A FARMER/HERDSMAN
PETER LYNCH INVESTS LIKE A HUNTER/GATHERER
ONLY ONE PERSON QUALIFIES AS A SEEKER OF "HIDDEN TREASURE" HIS NAME IS WALTER SCHLOSS!!
LET'S SEE
The 16 factors for investing success as stated by Walter Schloss:
Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value.
Try to establish the value of the company. Remember that a share of stock represents a part of a business and is not just a piece of paper.
Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of the enterprise. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity.
Have patience. Stocks don't go up immediately.
Don't buy on tips or for a quick move. Let the professionals do that if they can. Don't sell on bad news.
Don't be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in your judgment. You can't be 100% certain but try to look for weaknesses in your thinking. Buy on a scale and sell on a scale up.
Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision.
2019-03-31 10:24
So now LGE award lrt3 contract to gkent revision at 11.8 billion last month feb 2019 is also because is LGE golf buddy? Its an open contract, only the companies doing proper job get the works.
If not, why did gamuda give up the contract tender after price revision?
>>>>>>
Gkent awarded LRT3 previously bec Najib golf buddy?
2019-04-01 07:26
Gkent also does not have a history of ever losing money in the last 15 years. Shockingly, gkent has enough projects and growing business that they do not need to venture into property development, which is going to cause a long term recession in Malaysia for many property developers in the housing glut( not really glut, but so expensive locals can't even qualify for loans anymore).
Did I mention Gkent has a history of having net assets of CASH? A liquid and stable currency? It has 200 million more cash than naim which it deploys carefully.
Naim is 400 million in debt, and most of its "assets" are in land held for development (which is worthless unless developed) and interests in associates (naim land sb etc 300 million).
Its funny you should name NAIM. I know them well. They are based in Sarawak, a Sarawak politically linked company, building property that local sarawakians can't afford to buy. Their assets are pieces of jungles that were raped of timber, and land that has a 70 year expiry date. Yes, did you know that houses in Sarawak have a 70 year lease as compared to freehold property in Peninsular? Most kids who cant qualify for housing loan won't even know this. Very sad.
Worse of all, NAIM still owes me money (technically, my boss) for projects completed and handed over and sold. 2 years impaired, lawsuit and delayed. They used their "associate" company to award, which then turned into a 2 dollar company, that lawsuits will not have an effect on.
2 metrics to compare a business is just plain silly.
>>>>>>
gkent history of EPS and NTA not as great as Naim.
2019-04-01 08:01
Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > Apr 1, 2019 7:26 AM | Report Abuse
So now LGE award lrt3 contract to gkent revision at 11.8 billion last month feb 2019 is also because is LGE golf buddy? Its an open contract, only the companies doing proper job get the works.
==========
its more complicated than that. ...its not a fresh contract.
2019-04-01 11:22
Fresh contract or not, gamuda gave up their "revised" contract because they know they can't make money off of it.
The fact that gkent signed off on the revised lower contract is because it is now a redesign and fixed price contract.
Only those who did not have to pay much under the table money will dare to take up this contract.
2019-04-01 11:26
Unker, how many % confident that GKENT can make a profit from this revised contract amount? Just wondering if GKENT is operationally more efficient than Gamuda to the point that Gamuda can't manage their costs better than Gkent. Thanks
2019-04-01 11:29
Hi Tracy92,
I am under obligation(to my self) to inform you that you will earn rm3500 or 3% dividend of your purchase price of 1.17. but also note usually after ex dividend, the stock price will usually also drop by 3.5 cents in the short term after dividend ex-date.
>>>>>>
osted by tracy92 > Apr 1, 2019 11:14 AM | Report Abuse
Hi Philip, thanks for ur recommendation. I bot 100,000 units @ 1.17.
2019-04-01 11:29
Well, if they invited my boss for redesign tender negotiations instead of a GLC bumi company third party, they are in the right track.
2019-04-01 13:00
taking up fixed price contract to shows PH they are really capable in railroad construction with efficiency .Although earning margin might be low but if GKENT can complete phase by phase on time , it might be easier for them to get future railroad projects from PH . Company would not stupid to take project that might not benefits them at all,they foreseen more to come not only LRT3 . Also i think much revised amount could be the "undertable for BN" or commission to third parties.
2019-04-01 21:02
As a project delivery partner before, the lrt3 ballooning costs to 31 billion for a 40 km track( light railway some more) is not part of their scope, as gkent was just monitoring all the other portions done by others. So when other companies like gamuda etc dropped from their awarded contract, you know for sure it was due to corruption. Yes you are right the value is smaller this time around. But I would argue the fixed price contract now is actually more profitable before, since they no longer have to absorb 24% taxes for others, and award bogus work for minister linked subcontractors. The cost savings from managing and doing the full works for entire project with proper run companies will actually be more valuable in the long run.
>>>>>>>>>>
Also i think much revised amount could be the "undertable for BN" or commission to third parties.
2019-04-02 06:32
As an technical manager who does tenders all the time, I would argue that it is a redesign and cost savings project, and in many ways is almost an entirely new project. The costs are different, the goals of the project is different. Even the people doing it are different.
>>>>>>>>
its more complicated than that. ...its not a fresh contract.
01/04/2019 11:22 AM
2019-04-02 06:35
Operation guy talks operation
They can't see things from vantage point of view
2019-04-02 08:01
You need to think from a multidisciplinary perspectives only can become good at investing, I read it from Ricky's article I think!
2019-04-02 08:02
Philip,
What do you think of Australian mining stock ?
Thanks in advance
2019-04-02 11:01
I owned a stock, Grange Resources (GRR.AX) since 2017.
This is a high grade iron ore miner (65% FE) (high grade ore produces less pollution in steel making) and the majority of its ore is shipped to China.
The Company :-
1) P/E is 2.81
2) Market Cap - $312M
3) Cash & Receivables - $242M (historical trend shows its receivable is fully paid)
Cash balance increases approx. $9-10M each quarter.
4) Debt - $7M
5) Considering the above - you are buying the whole company for $77M
6) 2018 Revenue - $368M with Net Profit - $112M
4) Business Operations - offtake contracts with Shagang China who are also GRR's
majority shareholder.
Bluescope, Australia largest steelmaker are planning to contract with GRR.
5) Future Prospect - New exploration into North Pit in Savage River and looking for
strategic partner for SouthDown project (projected to contain high volume of
high grade iron ore). Production should increase in Q2 2019.
6) Dividend yield is 7%-10% (depending on entry price) for the last 7 years.
Market Outlook :-
1) Vale Dam collapse in Brazil and Cyclone Veronica in Western Australia shave off
75M tonne of iron ore from the market in 2019. Cyclone Veronica does not affect
GRR as it is located in Tasmania.
2) Near/Medium term view iron ore prices are optimistic
3) Weakness in AUD/USD increases profit margin
4) Long term view - high grade ore demand to increase as it reduces pollution in
steel making, which has China govt's support.
Downside :-
1) Chinese controlled - 3/5 directors were previously Shagang employed.
2) Directors have no significant stock holding, more like a caretaker.
3) Operate like privately owned vessel company as it venture into luxury property
development without minority shareholding approval
4) Stockpiling cash with no plans for expansion/stock repurchase/dividend increment
5) Racism as it is listed in Australian Exchange
This is a penny stock for 5 years now. The other miners has appreciated 100% in the last 5 months while GRR only appreciated 35%.
Due to the supply shortfall and AUD weaknesses, their margin should be higher in Q1 2019 at current production levels.
I appreciate anyone's input to give me some insight that I might have missed out as I cannot make sense of the current stock price. As at today's closing, there are 8M sellers vs 4M buyers.
Thanks in advance.
2019-04-02 13:17
At least I AM an engineer, unlike fake engineer/ex-investment bankers/ retirees who talk too much story and make up so many ideas in their minds about points of views. And worse, any random guy who disagrees with them gets called stupid and idiot and all sorts horrible names.
Your comments are useless and add no value to the conversation. If you don't have anything constructive to add, the JAKS thread is to the top and left.
>>>>>>
con8888 Operation guy talks operation
They can't see things from vantage point of view
02/04/2019 8:01 AM
2019-04-02 15:35
Hi amateur apprentice.
For me I try to understand the business that I'm in first and foremost. What industry is it in, what makes it special versus it's competitors etc.
I don't really like the mining industry, as it is more a boom bust cycle usually as the business goes up and down in uncontrolled ways that constantly surprise me.
But may I ask you, why did YOU invest in the stock?
Was it chiefly for the 7% dividends?
Its there any specific growth trigger in the near future that is accountable? ( I wouldn't use rough terms like demand and optimism as specific) unless it leads to firm big orders from some major clients.
Any particular reason you chose grr in terms of competitive advantage? I noticed there is a huge cash pile ( which as minority shareholders you will never see) but are they doing anything with it?
I usually benchmark growth rates with comps like vale, Freeport and Rio tinto n terms of how to imagine my growth triggers for mining companies.
The magic word always seems to be integration.
2019-04-02 17:07
Hi Philip,
Thanks for the prompt response.
The reason I invest is because the stock was selling at $0.18 while the Cash Balance was $0.20 per share, with no debt. Thus, I am getting the business for free.
Dividends is a plus only because it can be scrap as and when management see fit. (After 2 years, it proved quite a significant amount)
All the analysis above was done after I bought the stock. =p
In terms of growth rate, the closest comparison is Fortescue Metal Group as GRR is a pure iron ore miner. The other miners outlined above has other commodities in their mix.
Even when comparing to Fortescue, it is not an on-par comparison due to :-
1) Fortescue is a big miner
2) has a flamboyant founder
3) they specializes in low grade ore, ie, has very low margin, entirely dependent on economy of scale.
Small miners like GRR mostly bank on quality of the commodity. I am unable to find any other small iron ore miner which are profit-making.
How do I go about roughly estimating growth rates ? Compare to other small miners in other commodities like gold ?
Or do you think I over-analyse a little bit ? Haha
Thanks in advance.
2019-04-02 22:54
Hi, I think you don't analyse your company enough, to be honest.
As a minority investor, you will never get your "business" for free. The cash balance, cash in hand, assets and etc will not be something that you can be an active part in. As a minority, your only definite part of the company will be is share price increase, dividend yield and share buybacks.
Like your have previously said, other mining companies have bigger share price increase over the longer term. Why is that? Could it be due to rights issue, share buybacks, lower dividends, warrants, bonds etc?
A big part which is often overlooked is the quality of management. I understand it is 42% Chinese owned and managed. Is it shareholder centric? What are the returns on shareholder equity?(ROE) Is it growing it's equity organically in its core business, or is it taking the easy way out ( like many bursa companies) that venture into property development.
And yes you hit the nail in the head, estimating growth rates should be one of the key valuation before you buy the stock.
I like to practise the exercise of Peter lynch in this, which I think is a brilliant guy (read the book one over wall Street). First, SCUTTLEBUTT. Find out from friends or investor relations you know in the mining industry in who the big dog is in Australia. How efficient grr is in remain to that big dog etc. Is the management more capable or just so so.
Then you try to split the company into one of these groups, fast growers, slow growers, stalwarts, turnarounds, cyclicals, asset plays and be clear on the reason you are buying them. Each one has a particular strategy.
2019-04-03 06:07
And in terms of comparison to other mining companies, what I should have specified was not what they were mining, but how efficiently they are mining it. I used to look at cliffs(NYSE) before. The key metric for commodities has always been, how much did it cost them to dig it out of the ground and sell it, versus how much the market is willing to pay for it. Cliffs was usd1.5 in 2015, a 7 bagger today.
If you notice, this is also how Warren invests in his oil stocks and rewards his executives. The bonuses and compensation plans are based on reducing oil finding costs, not increasing profits and revenues ( which will be high when oil price goes up, and low when the oil price goes down).
I would try to find out something like this for grr and it's high grade ore competitors.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/iron-ore-breakeven-rates-major-miners-macquarie-bank-2018-1
Some last thoughts.
For me, I'd rather a company that has core competency in iron mining and understands that market industry invest its extra cash in associates doing upstream activities, buy more efficient machines and automation systems, pay their workers better, increase headcount etc rather than venturing into investments they know nothing about ( like property development).
2019-04-03 06:28
Hi Philip,
Thanks a lot for the beautiful advise. Appreciate it a lot. Thanks again.
2019-04-09 09:49
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
(Clark GKent) Philip
I seriously have no idea how to do that.
Anyone have a crystal ball I can borrow? I would love to follow a trend, if I knew how to get off before it breaks.
But no one has ever been able to show me that trends spotting works consistently.
2019-03-28 21:15