i. China’s palm oil (PO) stocks fell in February (-9.5% MoM, -50% YoY), despite higher Malaysian imports. Stocks are now 42% below historical averages. China’s soybean oil (SBO) stocks have, however, improved MoM (8.0%) but dropped 4% YoY, at 34% below historical levels.
ii. India’s stock levels dropped last month (-15.7% MoM, +5.8% YoY), reflecting lower Malaysian exports (-18.3% MoM) and are now 44% below the historical average. Imports of edible oils rose by 16.5% YoY in Jan 2022, while palm oil imports dropped by 30%, indicating switching to other oils – given the high CPO prices. We may continue to see more switching if CPO continues to trade at unfathomable levels.
iii. Both Pakistan’s and Bangladesh’s palm oil stocks are currently 31- 33% below their 3-year historical averages. This is likely due to demand rationing, given their sensitivity to prices.
iv. With the Russia-Ukraine war still ongoing, agricultural prices remain volatile. Both soybean oil (SBO) and CPO prices have risen by c.50-60% in the last few months. CPO is now trading at a premium to SBO of USD70.00/tonne (from USD80.00/tonne discount last month), making CPO uncompetitive. Should the war continue for much longer, the sunflower seed planting season (April to September) in Russia and Ukraine will be disrupted, while other crops could be damaged – resulting in 6-7% of global oilseed crop being lost. Besides this, Russia is one of the largest producers of potash fertiliser globally, and this could lead to higher prices and supply shortages.
Source: RHB Research - 11 Mar 2022
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