PETALING JAYA: As GE15 results saw voters largely split among Pakatan Harapan, Perikatan Nasional and Barisan Nasional, political analysts are also divided on the outcome of the Padang Serai and Tioman elections which will be known later on Wednesday (Dec 7).

Prof Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmod of the International Islamic University Malaysia argued that the seats could see Malay voters swinging towards Perikatan.

According to Nik Ahmad, this was because they were disappointed with Perikatan’s defeat in the 15th General Election.

"Perikatan’s defeat in GE15 exacerbated the possibility of that swing to also show that Perikatan has the support of voters.

"A kind of revenge, in Perikatan’s favour," said Nik Ahmad.

However, Nik Ahmad also said it was premature to draw any conclusion on Barisan-Pakatan cooperation based on the result in the two seats.

On the other hand, Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan predicted that the newly-forged Barisan-Pakatan pact would prevail against Perikatan in both seats.

"Though Perikatan is having the upper-hand because grassroots and voters in both seats are not comfortable with Barisan and Pakatan cooperating, I believe that many of them view the pact positively.

"As I see it, this unity government is the way to go because it represents Malaysia in terms of composition," said Azmi.

Regardless of who wins in Padang Serai and Tioman, Azmi said the Pakatan-Barisan pact was likely to remain.

"I think Padang Serai and Tioman are too small to reflect people’s acceptance of this particular cooperation.

"But Barisan and Pakatan leaders have to work together, otherwise Perikatan will be the victor here," said Azmi.

"So, I presume that the cooperation will be continued regardless of the Tioman and Padang Serai outcome," he added.

UiTM Administrative Science and Policy Studies lecturer Mujibu Abd Muis said while there was no official announcement on the Barisan-Pakatan pact yet, their current cooperation was based on a "gentleman's agreement" for the Padang Serai and Tioman elections.

Mujibu said the cooperation aimed to show goodwill between them as these two elections will not change the political status quo.

However, Mujibu pointed out that their relations may develop, subject to the upcoming Umno general assembly scheduled in January and the party polls which will take place after that.

The Umno elections, he said, would see whether or not party president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's camp was able to withstand challenges and retain their respective positions.

Another factor was whether or not the unity government will be able to deliver and receive positive public feedback, he added.

Mujibu also noted that the Barisan-Pakatan cooperation was easier compared to a cooperation between Barisan and Perikatan, as both are going after the same vote bank.

"But still, they will be judged by voters as an individual (party) not as a coalition (government).

"Issues of Malay-Islam, anti-corruption, good governance will be vital issues that need to be justified by both parties," he said.

This was because the Opposition would definitely use those issues to discredit the Pakatan-Barisan cooperation, which might potentially hurt them along the way and is predicted to be a hard sell to their respective grassroots for now, Mujibu noted.

GE15 saw Pakatan winning 81 seats, Perikatan 73 and Barisan 30.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2022/12/07/analysts-divided-on-outcome-of-padang-serai-and-tioman-polls