KUALA LUMPUR: Parties aligned with the unity government are expected to do well in the state elections in Selangor, said an analyst.

Merdeka Centre's Ibrahim Suffian based this conclusion on the combined votes of Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) in Selangor in the 14th General Election in 2018.

The political analyst, however, cautioned partners in the unity government not to take the outcome of the 15th General Election (GE15) lightly.

He said the number of voters in Selangor had increased from 2.42 million in 2018 to 3.75 million, mainly due to the automatic voter registration and Undi18, which could make the election results very close.

Ibrahim said state elections frequently reflect regional concerns.

"In GE15, it was clear that most voters based their choices on parties. However, some young and female Malay voters considered personalities and issues before casting their ballots," he told FMT.

PH has the advantage of incumbency.

Ibrahim, however, noted that Umno's inclusion in a pact with PH has altered local dynamics, particularly for PH supporters who may find it challenging to collaborate with a longtime foe.

"Hence, vote transferability from BN supporters to PH candidates, and from PH supporters to BN candidates, may be a challenge.

"Umno supporters may opt to stay out or even support Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidates due to dissatisfaction with their own leaders."

Ibrahim said the public's opinion of the Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim-led government may have a big impact.

Though the Merdeka Centre survey from February showed Anwar had a 68 per cent approval rating and that the nation was headed in the right direction, the mood may change in the coming months.

"We are observing that young Malay voters are warming up to Anwar and PH.

"They could be wary of PN's focus on race and religion and the lack of tangible suggestions on how to address cost-of-living issues.

"However, this could be fleeting. So PH has to work harder to show that its decision to partner with Umno-BN is for the long term, even though it's an open secret that some BN leaders are uncomfortable with the arrangement."

Ibrahim said Umno likewise has a difficult task ahead of it after a poor showing in GE15.

https://www.nst.com.my/news/politics/2023/05/914204/unity-govt-parties-likely-do-well-selangor-says-expert-caveats