Benefit from increasing oil price will cascade across the range (type) of companies is broken into four tiers as shown. Tier One should benefit immediately with Tier 4 last.
Oil and gas companies’ decision makers are still convinced that oil price will be lower longer. Some are still forecasting oil price to be in the mid 50s to 60s (Brent).
Supply and demand has shown otherwise. Even now with Iran producing to its maximum, (world) supply is still insufficient. Some still believes that OPEC has a lot of spare capacity, especially Saudi. So the “wait and see” will make matters worse in the months to come. Sanctioning (by November 2018) Iran will further exasperate the (supply) situation.
Natural depletion is the main culprit (3 – 5 mbpd), come Venezuela (1 mbpd), then Iran (1.5 mbpd) and civil wars in Libya and Nigeria (0.5 mbpd). This totaled, 6 to 8 mbpd supply off the market by early/mid 2019. Which countries / companies are able to increase production by this much?
Investing in production companies will be the best way to benefit from the increasing oil price. Of course one can buy physical oil, keep in tanks and sell later, obviously this options is out for most investors here. There is also the futures market that I know zilch, so no further comment.
Obviously, the above is very general in nature and some companies (like Serba Dinamik) are enjoying very good run. To categories all oil and gas companies on Bursa is beyond me.
Perhaps, readers can chip in and I will update accordingly.
What to avoid
Manufacturing companies where oil / oil products make up a big portion of their raw material. One company that comes to mind is Superlon.
Superlon profit margin is reverse to oil prices. Most plastic packaging manufacturing companies should have similar relationship. Yes, there is also currency exchange that boosted profit.
Transportation – fuel cost will increase, eating into their profit margin. Logistic companies should be studied carefully. I have learnt a painful lesson before – what government gives now can take away in the future.
AirAsia may not be hit as hard yet because their fleet is (overall) newer and more fuel efficient compared to before. However, there are investors that think AirAsia is no longer an airline, it is a digital company selling services like money transaction or ancillary income is now a big portion, etc – on this I have no comment. But as fuel price increases, there will come a time when fuel surcharge become the norm for air-lines the world over.
IPP - there could be some effect but most likely there will be "cost-past-through". Tenaga will probably bear the brunt as they are not allowed to increase the tariff. Government had already step in to bear the current increase, future - your guess is just as good.
Plantation - cost of production will increase as fertilizer and transporting FFB to mill and CPO to port will all go up.
Consumer - there will be price increases due to transportation (air, marine, land) cost increase, raw material will eventualy increase as the cost of production of the raw material will also increased (fertilizer & transportation).
Maufacturing will be hit first, then the effect will cascade to the other sectors. I cannot tell how this will pan out as I am stating everthing in general. Readers, please chip in to make this clearer, many thanks.
Created by teoct | Jul 23, 2020