THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

8% CPO TAX FROM JAN 1 TO 31 2021: A LOOK AT HOW IT AFFECTS PALM OIL SHARES IN MALAYSIA, Calvin Tan Research

calvintaneng
Publish date: Wed, 23 Dec 2020, 02:26 AM
calvintaneng
0 1,683
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Hi guys,

Quite a number of dear people whataspped to ask about 8% CPO tax today

So this is a sharing on my thoughts

Ok this is the news posted in Theedgedaily

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 22): Malaysia has set the export tax for crude palm oil (CPO) at 8% for January 2021.

In a statement today, the Royal Malaysian Customs Department said the 8% export duty rate was set after the CPO market price reached RM3,450 per tonne and above.

The rate would be effective on Jan 1 until Jan 31, 2021, marking the end of the zero export tax enjoyed from June to December 2020, which was aimed at raising the value of Malaysian palm exports to other countries, mainly India.

The export duty exemption was also meant to help support the commodity industry as part of overall efforts to stimulate the economy in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

At the close yesterday, CPO futures contracts for January, February, March and April were hovering between RM3,320 and RM3,646 per tonne, while the physical CPO price for January South slipped RM20 to RM3,660 per tonne.

Plantation analysts located support at RM3,350 and resistance at RM3,520 per tonne.

Ok let's do a breakdown

1) THE 8% CPO EXPORT TAX IS BASED ON CPO PRICES REACHING RM3,450

THAT MEANS THAT MALAYSIA GOVT EXPECTS THAT CPO PRICES SHOULD AT LEAST TRADE ABOVE THAT FIGURE

 

2) THE TAX PERIOD IS FIXED FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2021 ONLY

The rate would be effective on Jan 1 until Jan 31, 2021

NOTHING IS MENTIONED AS YET BY FEB 2021

 

3) THE MONTHS OF OCT, NOV & DEC 2020 WILL STILL SEE ZERO TAX & ALL 3 MONTHS RESULT WILL BE STILL REPORTED IN FEBRUARY 2021 AS NEW RECORDS COMPARED TO ALL OF 2020 AS CPO PRICES REACHED RM3,600

See: marking the end of the zero export tax enjoyed from June to December 2020, which was aimed at raising the value of Malaysian palm exports to other countries, mainly India.

4) SINCE THE COST OF PRODUCTION RANGES FROM ONLY RM1,600 TO RM1,800 A TONNE - ALL PALM OIL STOCKS WILL REPORTED SPECTACULAR PROFITS

5) SINCE GLOVE PRICES ARE NOW FULLY VALUED, VACCINE STOCKS HAVE RUN FAR AHEAD OF ITS REAL VALUE - ONLY PALM OIL SHARES STILL REMAIN VERY VERY UNDERVALUE

 

QUESTION NOW IS

WILL CPO PRICES BE A FLASH IN THE PAN? OR WILL IT LAST LONGER TERM IN A PROLONGED CYCLE OF ANOTHER 4 TO 5 YEARS LIKE IT DID IN YEAR 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 & 2014??

WHY CALVIN THINKS IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE CPO BULL RUN LAST MUCH LONGER?

WHY?

ANSWER:

1) CHINA 5 TYPHOONS WIPED OF ALL ITS FOOD IN YEAR 20202 DUE TO 5 TYPHOONS; 3 SUPER TYPHOONS HIT HEILONGJIANG THE BREAD BASKET OF CHINA AT ONCE NEVER BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF CHINA

2) CHINA LEADS IN BUYING SOYBEAN & CORN FROM USA LIKE NEVER BEFORE

SEE HOW SOYOIL PRICE IN USA CROSSED USD40 NOW

 

JAN 2021 JAN 2021 Show Price Chart 40.28 +0.32 39.96 39.96 40.52 39.64 27,351 11:42:23 CT
22 Dec 2020
MAR 2021 MAR 2021 Show Price Chart 39.72 +0.17 39.55 39.60 40.00 39.23 47,890 11:42:23 CT
22 Dec 2020
MAY 2021 MAY 2021 Show Price Chart 39.18 +0.06 39.12 39.17 39.50 38.72 20,816 11:42:19 CT
22 Dec 2020
JUL 2021 JUL 2021 Show Price Chart 38.94 +0.03 38.91 38.99 39.28 38.50 7,525 11:42:16 CT
22 Dec 2020
AUG 2021 AUG 2021 Show Price Chart 38.54 +0.03 38.51 38.59 38.83 38.30 1,543 11:32:02 CT
22 Dec 2020
SEP 2021 SEP 2021 Show Price Chart 38.05 +0.06 37.99 38.03 38.32 37.64 1,150 11:32:37 CT
22 Dec 2020

 

SOY OIL UP MEANS PALM OIL WILL GET A STRONG BOOSTER

ALL BECAUSE WORLD SOYBEAN DEMAND EXCEEDS SUPPLY FOR NOW

AND NOW ONLY HOPE OF MORE SOYBEAN IS FROM SOUTH AMERICA 5 NATIONS OF BRAZIL, ARGENTINA, URUGUAY, PARAGUAY, BOLIVIA

BUT NEWS ALREADY OUT THAT ONLY BRAZIL SOYBEAN BELT GOT SOME SCATTERED RAIN & VERY LITTLE RAIN IN ARGENTINA

IN FACT BRAZIL MAIN SOYBEAN REGION OF MATO GROSSO IS FACING VERY HOT WEATHER RIGHT NOW

 

SEE TODAY WEATHER FORECAST IN MATO GROSSO

THE FEEL IS 38 DEGREE CELSIUS

HOW MUCH IS 38 DEGREE CELSIUSIN FARENHEIT?

SEE Nearby Values

°Celsius °Fahrenheit
38.00 100.400
38.01 100.418
38.02 100.436
38.03 100.454
38.04 100.472
38.05 100.490
38.06 100.50

A VERY HOT OVER 100 FARENHEIT

ALL SOYBEAN WILL BE SCORCHED DRY

SO WILL THERE BE SOYBEAN FOR SALE NEXT MONTH IN SOUTH AMERICA?

MAYBE SOME BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH

WHY?

READ THIS 

What is the ideal temperature for soybeans? Soybeans are a temperate leguminous plant with an ideal daytime temperature of 85° F. When air temperatures exceed 85° F, soybeans can experience heat stress regardless of reproductive stage. When soybeans experience heat stress, yield reductions can begin to occur, especially when soil moisture is limiting. Heat stress during flowering can result in pollen sterility and reduced seed set. Temperatures exceeding 85° F can result in a decreased number of pods while temperatures above 99° F severely limit pod formation. Heat stress at the R5 growth stage (beginning seed), has the greatest impact on soybean yield. During seed fill, daytime temperatures of 91-96° F result in fewer seeds per plant. Daytime temperatures greater than 85° F during seed fill can result in decreased soybean weight.

From here we see High Hot Weather in South America will have great impact on soybean yield

BY NOW WE ALREADY KNOW THAT SOYBEAN FOR JANUARY TO MARCH 2021 WILL BE LESS FOR 2021

SO SOYBEAN OIL PRICES WILL STAY ELEVATED

AND PALM OIL WILL GO INTO A PROLONGED BULL RUN

 

3) LA NINA FACTOR

TYPHOON & DROUGHT ARE CAUSED BY LA NINA WEATHER PATTERN

NOW IF LA NINA CONTINUES FROM HERE WHEN WILL IT END?

ONE YEAR?

TWO YEARS?

THREE YEARS?

FOUR YEARS?

OR FIVE YEARS?

 

PALM OIL BULL CANNOT BE STOPPED EASILY AS PRODUCTION OF PALM OIL CANNOT BE INCREASED LIKE GLOVES

IT TAKES AT LEAST 4 YEARS TO PLANT & SEE OIL PALM BEARS FRUIT

NO SHORT CUT UNLIKE GLOVES WANNABEES SET UP GLOVE FACTORIES IN 6 TO 9 MONTHS

THERE IS NO ANTIDOTE TO PALM OIL FOOD SHORTAGE UNLIKE COVID 19 GOT VACCINE TO STOP IT

 

NOW ALL ARE RUSHING INTO GLOVE & VACCINE THEME & NEGLECTED PALM OIL BULL THEME

SO?

SO WE HAVE A VERY GOOD ENTRY PRICES AS IGNORANT PEOPLE ARE AVOIDING PALM OIL BULL RUN

WE CAN BUY CHEAP TO OUR HEARTS' CONTENT

 

BEST REGARDS

Calvin Tan Research

Singapore

 

Disclaimer

All Information Provided Here Should Be Treated For Informational Purposes Only. It Is Solely Reflecting Author's Personal Views And The Author Should Not Be Held Liable For Any Actions Taken In Reliance On Information Contained Herein

 

PLEASE NOTE

FOR STOCKS LIKE JTIASA, THPLANT & ESPECIALLY WTK 

THEY GOT BOTH PALM OIL & LUMBER

LUMBER PRICES NOW ALSO VERY HIGH

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/futures/lumber

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 10 of 10 comments

calvintaneng

See Lumber future chart
https://www.macrotrends.net/futures/lumber

2020-12-23 02:27

mf

omg

2020-12-23 05:34

calvintaneng

WHOA FCPO JAN 2021 NOW REACHED RM3,877

GOING UP LIKE BALLISTIC MISSILE

2020-12-24 15:23

stockraider

Despite the strong cpo prices, the things pressing it down is the cpo tax implementation, it was already confirmed at 8% now loh..!!

Now with this news already out & behind us, we look at the cpo future & it ranges from jan to august Rm 3800 to Rm 3000, all above the super profitable benchmark price of Rm 3,000 over 8 months.

Thus if u have invested in palmoil stock , you can expert super profit for at least 8 months loh...!!

In addition u need to know, if cpo prices above rm 2,600 u already substantial good margin and profit as most of plantations cpo cost is around rm 1,600 per ton mah...!!

Thus 2021 will be a very good year for palm oil plantation mah...!!

Market is still sceptic about palmoil...it will turn positive optimistic very soon loh...!!

Go in early, do not be late like Johnny come lately mah..!!

2020-12-25 11:47

EngineeringProfit

Merry Christmas to you, Calvintaneng! Your palm oil darlings are late juvenile ady - almost bull ah?

2020-12-25 11:54

calvintaneng

Tyvm

palm oil stocks long way more to bull

stage one

pessimism

stage two

skepticism

stage three

optimism

stage four euphoria

palm oil still at stage two of skepticism

a) Star newspapers down play it

b) Analysts give neutral lukewarm call

c) IB banks in silence

d) The crowd more concerned with gloves , vaccine hype , tech stocks and others

So long long way more for palm oil shares to go up

2020-12-26 18:13

stockraider

THIS IS THE SECRET

EVERY YEAR THERE IS ONE OR TWO THEMATIC BULL THEME

IF WE CAN CATCH IT EARLY & RIDE THE BULL TO ITS PEAK WE WILL DO EXCEEDINGLY WELL
WE WILL BE ABLE TO OUTPERFORM IN A FEW SHORT BULL RUNS AND PERHAPS RETIRE EARLY LIKE PETER LYNCH


OF COURSE LIKE WARREN BUFFET MAKING MONEY FROM STOCK MARKET AS A MOTIVE IS LONG OVER
IT IS THE JOY, THE ADVENTURE & THE CONSTANT INTELLECTUAL CHALLENGE IN THE ART OF INVESTMENTS THAT CAUSED HIM TO SAY
"TAP DANCING TO WORK"


NOW MY HUMBLE OPINION IS THIS
YEAR 2021 WILL BE PALM OIL "BULL RUN"
WHY PALM OIL WILL GO INTO A BULL RUN FOR YEAR 2021?

ANSWER:
BECAUSE CPO PRICES NOW REACHING ALL TIME HIGH WILL AMPLIFY PROFITS
AND IF PROFITS KEEP INCREASING IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME COMPANIES WILL INCREASE DIVIDENDS OR REWARD WITH BONUS ISSUES. SO PALM OIL SHARES MUST GO UP AS THIS IS THE LAW!

SOYBEAN OIL GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE PEOPLE WILL GO FOR PALM OIL!! & PALM OIL WILL RISE IN TANDEM
AGAIN WHEN ALL THE WORLD MARKETS CLOSED FOR CHRISTMAS FRIDAY - CHINA BEING COMMUNIST STILL TRADE IN DALIAN ALREADY RECORD HIGH FOR BOTH PALMOIL & SOYABEAN MAH...!!

U r actually seeing emerging sign of palmoil share run like the early Gloves run in March to April Rally coming which are very subtle upside b4 it explosively burst out with gains of few hundred % coming at the later stage mah...!!

U need to join the palmoil stock early as this is a safest fruit pickings when there are still abundance in supply loh...!!

ALWAYS REMEMBER TO BUY EARLY BEFORE TOO LATE MAH...!!

2020-12-27 12:39

ivan9511

@by calvintaneng
Hi Calvin thanks for the support on Plantations
I AGREED AND KEEP fews like Wtk Gl icken taan th tdm
AND MANY IS STILL PROFIT
Thanks for the sharing
However Calvin can ask you still look good on Opcom
Opcom you still hold

2020-12-27 13:23

henrychin

Hi Calvin, thks for your good recommendation of the stocks and would like to seek your advise on Ancomlb now atRM.048 cents can buy now? Thks.

2020-12-28 15:21

calvintaneng

henrychin

ancom lb is based on part truth and part rumour

the truth

most probably by early Next year Ancomlb will Rto with S5

We don't know S5 will maintain the name ancom lb or change to S5 or any other name the new owner will decide

so ancom lb will be a different entity after that

now the rumour

rumour out there said Pm Muhyiddin son in law owns some S5 and so S5 expected to get immigration job

True or not I not sure but looks like people are excited

I don't promote goreng shares

but if S5 do get Govt contract like MyEg then ho sei leow

so please invest carefully and avoid too much speculation

2020-12-28 23:45

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