Post removed.Why?

RainT: if you go look through old bursa announcements, you can find the entry price of the major shareholders. 1.25 i believe is the entry price of MWE (lower after entries further down the line), Pang family entry ~1.11 i think... but IJM's entry only 0.26 (when they went in to rescue talam).

their cash call is only ~100m shares... assuming they can place out at 0.80... only get 80m cash. Their Aeon purchase... from circular looks to be 100% funded by debt... but assuming 80% financing at 5% interest rate for 20 years..maybe NPI additional RM4m a year. if they manage to place out the 100m shares (which they will have to) their yield will no longer be 8%... proforma ~5% only. If only going to get 5% yield IGB or PAV reit safer

Gen2: thanks for the link.

simply put sometime between now and 2021... they will have to:
1. do an equity fund raising
2. refinance
3. reduce distributions
option 1: dilution means reducing the yields assuming all else equals
option 2: refinancing to defer the bullet payment is probably their best choice.... if via a normal term loan... it means yields goes down. if via the same terms then it would probably be the same yield as now.
option 3: Right now there is about 3 years left to pay the 87m bullet payment, roughly about 29m a year. Their distribution in 2018 ~37m... so they will have to cut distributions per year to about 8m.

That means the 8%+ yield that we are seeing is not sustainable.... my 2 cents.
Feel free to comment.... i am here to learn.

anybody looked at note 10 of their 2018 audited accounts? They have RM87mil in borrowings which will be repaid in 1 bullet payment 5 years from date of 1st drawdown. I cant find any disclosure on when it was drawndown. It is sitting there in their books for 2017 and 2018. So I can only assumethat they would need to pay it back between now and 2021. They have ~20mil in cash, makes about 40m FCF every year and i do not see any disclosure of how much cash is cordon of to pay for the RM87m. Anybody has any information on how they plan to pay back this RM87mil? Thanks.

They have not announced their logging report for the month of July yet... normally announce around 15th of following month. strange....

teoct i agree with your assessment of the world oil supply and demand. USD30/barrel (2016) has discouraged explorations. World oil production cost is ~USD60/barrrel. What happened was supply destruction and that would only push oil upwards. Although I hope for USD100/barrel, imho, oil price would hover around USD80 for the rest of this year. This level should entice exploration to replace depleting oilfields. Although I hope for USD100/barrel, imho, price would hover around USD80 for the rest of the year. Anything in excess of USD80 is a bonus.

happy investing: brent down abit.. think it will drop to 70 over the next week before rebounding. oil price is still well supported by saudi listing of aramco (good oil price needed for good valuation), trade conflicts, supply deficit moving forward. believe the story for hibiscus is still intact, increase production at better prices.

think oil price will drop to bout 70 over the next week before rebounding. still going to be a supply deficit moving forward. with the trade war and all oil price wont drop too much

think oil price will drop to bout 70 over the next week before rebounding. still going to be a supply deficit moving forward. with the trade war and all oil price wont drop too much

healthy pullback yesterday and most of today's session. Believe share price will continue uptrend tomorrow.

i believe that this is a company with good fundamentals. Their revenue is increasing year on year however the earnings are being squeezed due to promotion of their own brand. I believe that their earnings will continue to be squeezed until sales of their own brand starts increasing and promotion expenses stabilises. I don't foresee that happening in the next 1 year. Until then i see no reason for this increase in price. Having said that, there is very high volume ~ 8 million shares traded over the past 3 sessions. This indicates that funds or whales are buying in. If you are prepared to hold long term, this may be a good price to get in. if you plan to hold short term, i think the price is too expensive now. A pullback should happen within the next few days.

Saudi has mentioned previously that its target for oil is USD80. I believe that there will be a slight increase in production from saudi and russia to make up for the shrinking production of venezuala and libya in the coming opec meeting to keep prices below USD80. China tariffs on US shale oil just means that china will buy more from other countries namely iran instead of USA. My opinion is that oil should hover around 60+ to 70+ range for the next 1-2 years.

can any sifu please explain this negative goodwill on consolidation? from what i understand the benefits and risk of north sabah oilfield from jan 2017 will accrue to hibiscus. the sales price for the said oilfield is USD22mil. the negative goodwill on conso is ~rm100mil... my question is if this a)negative goodwill = rev of sabah oilfield since jan 2017 less purchase price ?
b) net profit of sabah oilfield since jan 2017 less purchase price; or
c) whatt????

i agree. government has said that they are not going to abolish toll so soon. my view is that when the government does abolish toll they will focus on those that has already recouped their investments first. Even if they do decided to abolish wce tolls they will have to pay compensation. Also certain portions of the highway is expected to open soon. this is a positive for wce.

in the event of a government buyout of wcesb, what do you think the agreed price will be in view that toll operations have not commenced yet?