7.5 sen 来了。不出所料。

不出两个星期即将公布7.5仙股息。趁庄家反复砸盘收割韭菜，我们收割庄家的成果，捡现成便宜，第二波操作。为何 Jura 推出C8，你知道这是主打哪个市场，Jura 布的是什么局，它当前面临的挑战是什么，它想开拓什么机会，C8的开发有什么战略意义以及随之而来大概率的影响，欢迎评论。我会在两个星期之内发表我的看法。

其实还有很多很多很多可以分享的。但是这不是我一个人的blog。希望你们无私分享，也让我收益。

另外再告诉你们一个消息，欢迎评论：
https://www.thestar.com.my/metro/metro-news/2024/02/02/swiss-coffee-machine-brand-opens-store-in-petaling-jaya

4.10 * 95% = 3.89. 这是个简单的公式。4.10 是报告前的市场估值。报告预测营收降中个位数，假设5%（根据以往经验管理层通常采取保守披露展望的态度，就是事实往往比预期好的报告方式），所以乘以95%。加上还没派发的2023年度赚取的7.5仙和美元增值效应，可以看出已经明显跌出价值。

散户投资者受到惊吓。过度解读 mid single digit revenue decline in USD. 其实即便事实如此，美元对马币与去年比较升值幅度可观，可以大幅抵消这个负面影响。还有，那个还没有派出的7.5仙是2023财政年的收入，所以在估价的时候必须加入考虑。这个股票已有投资机构包括保险机构持有和加码一段时间，对这只股票的估值有深入的研究。加上这只股票的基本面与行业展望并不复杂，因此股价跌破基本面的时间和幅度必然是轻微的。所以我的看法是... 相信你也猜到了。当 Coo1eo 大叔做此声明，我的直觉告诉我，此时开始进场，赚钱容易，等它跌去 3.6 可以赚取暴利但机会相对小。资金大者，应该开始进场分阶段大笔敲进，资金小者可以迟些进场。

What bomb, don't understand

Hi Ooihk, ya, I wish to learn from fundamental sifu also. Based on your understanding and fundamental knowledge of this business, do you think the revenue in USD of Uchi likely to be flat, single digit growth, double digit growth, or contract by year 2024? What are the reasons that support your view? I know we can wait for the QR report, but I would like to know what you think. Thanks.

Following my study I think the impact towards today's share price is mildly negative to zero. But it may create a strong resistance at RM 4. Ooihk, have you ever tasted the coffee made from a Jura machine?

The CQ is expiring tomorrow. The CQ holders will be motivated to exercise the CQ because exercise price RM 3.30 is lower than the market price of mother share. Then Ambank will be forced to buy enough Uchi shares from the market to distribute to the CQ holders. It seems to me the CQ holders made a loss because the purchase price was 15 sen and exercise ratio is 5:1, then the total cost to convert to 1 Uchi share is 15 x 5 + 3.30 = 4.05, or 4.05 * 3.25/3.30 = 3.99 if adjustment due to special dividend paid is considered to be more precisely calculated. Do I understand this correctly?

Structured warrant, when exercised, will dilute future earning per share. And when exercise price is lower than market price, it will create a downward pressure towards the price.

I don't know when is the best time to buy. My strategy is to shortlist a few stocks with 6-7% yield and wait until one of them drop at least 5%. If I miss stock A, nevermind, I can get the rest. I don't have to grab all opportunities, just need to grab some will do. That can make me get more patience.

If exercise of CQ doesn't matter why Shines said "Call Warrant (CQ)Issurers will sure to press down the mother share prices to make it not worth to exercise to the CQ holders"? That is actually why I think it is a force to pressure the price downwards.
As for BNM interest rate, I believe it is going to be near stagnant at current level because this is the level before COVID and MCO etc. I find that 3% to 3.25% is healthy and normal throughout history of many years and believing this is the ideal rate that BNM perceives when inflation is within threshold, where it encourage both economy growth and keep financial imbalance in check. Therefore US interest rate cut will almost certainly strengthen MYR.

I refer back to 2020, 2021, and 2022, price did drop a few percentage from end of Dec to somewhere mid of Jan, very consistently every year.

The USD turning weak is due to FED stop increasing interest rate and reveal the intention to cut the interest rate 3x in 2024.

I did read these report. My understanding is that the call warrant will dilute the shares by 5% on 28th Dec and therefore the EPS and dividend per share will also dilute by 5%. I think that is the main reason of recent correction when EPF (suspected seller) factor in this effect. I would not have discovered this until I read your comment regarding to Uchitec-CQ . In addition to that, USD will turn weak next week where Hong Leong IB predict USD exchange rate to be as low as 4.30 by end of 2024. The earning prospect is unknown yet and probably it will be stated in Q4 report but that will be Feb next year. Perhaps a little patience to observe at least until 28th Dec when the call warrant expired and after end of Dec when window dressing is over would be paid off. Normally price is a bit inflated at end of Dec and price normally "normalised" in Jan.

I observe it is in uptrend for quite long. But along the way there are many corrections when the share price touches temporary peak. I think at this price level I would rather wait for the next quarter report before making any decision.

@Ooihk899, will the exercise of 80,000,000 shares UCHITEC-CQ warrants (exercise price RM 3.30) before 28th Dec create enormous pressure to the share price? If share price is above RM 3.30 it is almost certain that the warrant holders will exercise the warrant to convert it into ordinary shares and very likely they will just sell the shares to realise the gain right? Because if they are happy to hold the shares they would have bought the shares at lower price level before this. Is my unerstanding correct? Following the exercise of the warrant the EPS will be diluted. I like Uchi but I do not like frequent ESOS and warrant issue that dilute the EPS.

@Ooihk899, will the exercise of 80,000,000 shares UCHITEC-CQ warrants (exercise price RM 3.30) before 28th Dec create enormous pressure to the share price? If share price is above RM 3.30 it is almost certain that the warrant holders will exercise the warrant to convert it into ordinary shares and very likely they will just sell the shares to realise the gain right? Because if they are happy to hold the shares they would have bought the shares at lower price level before this. Is my unerstanding correct? Following the exercise of the warrant the EPS will be diluted. I like Uchi but I do not like frequent ESOS and warrant issue that dilute the EPS.

I mean left only RM 79.8 mil which is very small figure compares to the past.

Mr. Ahlian, ya that seems making-sense for long-term investors like me.
But one thing troubled my mind is how come the commodity future contract value at almost all gone in latest quarter report?

No dividend for this quarter as mentioned.

Why dividend policy 60% but actually pay out only 50%? Seems like the company doesnt really follow the policy...

4.8/63 = 7.6% div yield

Park at 0.63... collect on weakness...

Anyone attended the AGM? Any door gift or free meal?

0.645 habis jual, 0.655 habis juga, 0.66 susah dapat. Mari mari, siapa cepat dia dapat. Cepat dapat sikit kat 0.665 nanti kalau turun boleh tambah. Kalau tak turun mesti naik. Sekurang kurangnya dapat sikit.

Anyone tried the Gold Crackers before? https://www.hupseng.com/our-products-1

Anyone tried the Gold Crackers before?
https://www.hupseng.com/our-products-1

Minimum 1 sen per share per quarter has come back. And maybe more. Returning to its glorious time. The start of a new cycle.

This year CAPEX over 200 mil. Initially thought the retained earning in 2022 will be paid out as dividend in 2023 but looks like those cash are to be spent for CAPEX. Safe and boring stock with some risk of going down 10% following the moving trend of the gas price.

The high price of gas goes down very fast. Q2 MRP drops from 58 to 48. The following quarter will be 42. Coupled with lower volume of gas sold, the support for the price will quickly turn weak.

73 sen is a reasonable price. Don't have to worry much. This year will be less challenging for Hup Seng than last year. This year will only get better than last year.

I have a feeling that Q1 result will be very very good.

Hi Dhando, I'd like to correct that Wistron contributes only 10.5% of the total revenue according to annual report FY 2022, not 27%.
May I know how long have you been using that US import data and so far in actual case do you think it helps you to do good estimation?

Hi Dhando, FPI doesn't just export to US, am I right? How about other market like Europe, Japan, etc.?