这个价位用此战术，庄家压价不成反被我们用合理价不断买进，不出一个月庄家必定偷鸡不成蚀把米，股价回到4块钱以上。

这个时候要用八路军的战术，敌进我退，敌退我进，用吸星大法和运动战消耗敌人增强自己的实力。

如果庄家要累积股票，此时不出拳，就没有机会了，因为接下来好几个季度股价会收到股息强力承托。

庄家通常会在市场悲观时出七伤拳。不然的话等下个月尾就没有出拳的时机了。下个月尾出拳伤自己多过伤别人。

现在庄家在出七伤拳。现在第一季EPS 7仙，第二、三、四季摊平算7仙每季非常之保守都有总共28仙，公平计算则是30仙或以上。

Next month will announce dividend.

28 sen dividend FY2024 very possible

还有一个影响深远的，令人振奋的，还没发酵的市场因素，一个超大市场的开发，目前还没有人发表过。但是本王观察到的是一般大众的短视，浅海捕捞。因此庄家借此打压股价吸筹。众韭菜要是有雪亮的眼睛，敏锐的头脑，反杀过来，必定重创庄家，满载而归，丰收三年。

你想想，今年推出的产品是在今年的高峰销售期卖还是明年？当然是今年。你看看新产品都什么时候推介的？举一反三，不必本王多说了吧！那明年又是如何呢？如果明年税务少于12%一点都不奇怪。要知道高端产品必然售价高于低端产品。要是百分60的新产都是享有税务减免的高端产品，那么免税的销售额必然远远高于百分之60。明白吧？

现在的大趋势是什么？高科技白热化。什么人工智能，高阶晶片。Jura最赚钱最畅销最有优势的产品是Jura系列中的中高端还是中低端？当然是中高端。所以哪有不争先主打最先进的功能呢？你看看最近Jura的网站就知道了。高端产品当然很可能用到最新获得税务减免的科技啦。正如本王所料。“…about one-third of the 20 projects we enter mass production in 2024, with around 60% of these expected to benefit from the pioneer status incentive. We anticipate that the pioneer status projects will contribute a higher percentage to revenue in 2024 compared to 2023…”

你们想不想知道为什么本王说税率会有惊喜？本王又是如何"知晓"的？想知道就留言666。若有10个人留言本王就分享。

很多人学的是专注什么。但是应该忽略什么也是非常重要的。

当大家都过于小心的时候，本王非常贪心。当大家的眼球太过专注那不太靠谱的短期预测，本王看重的是消费和生活的大势。所谓势如破竹。破竹之时偶尔遇到小节和一些阻力，但是势不可挡，竹裂到底是轻易的。要有法人的眼光，知道法人看重的是什么，你就知道什么是应当忽略的。

三日内定乾坤

且看我运筹帷幄，决胜千里。

冲啊...

手上有票的抓紧。守一个星期必有收获。卖了后悔。

今年税率会有惊喜哦

没有人买我3.97扫光。这几天会有大好消息

清兵胸口掛個"勇"? You watched too much low budget Hong Kong TV series. If no gut to buy at 3.93, ain't have courage to buy at 4.03.

If price remains at 4.11 that means there are still a lot of so-chai. Then it is good for you. If price goes up to 4.30 means the ready and smart thinks that is the time to take action.

And possible to close above 4.30

I think it will gap up at least 10 sen. Don't underestimate other people... Now Mr. Market is better educated.

Lawkaw simply say. QR report out. EPS 6.97 sen. I think better than what a lot of people expected. Whole year sure more than 28 sen dividend. So RM 4.50 is very reasonable. Plus, next year it will be better when EU recover.

After QR today and AGM tomorrow, price will go up to 4.50. Next year? Maybe above 5.

7.5 sen 来了。不出所料。

不出两个星期即将公布7.5仙股息。趁庄家反复砸盘收割韭菜，我们收割庄家的成果，捡现成便宜，第二波操作。为何 Jura 推出C8，你知道这是主打哪个市场，Jura 布的是什么局，它当前面临的挑战是什么，它想开拓什么机会，C8的开发有什么战略意义以及随之而来大概率的影响，欢迎评论。我会在两个星期之内发表我的看法。

其实还有很多很多很多可以分享的。但是这不是我一个人的blog。希望你们无私分享，也让我收益。

另外再告诉你们一个消息，欢迎评论：
https://www.thestar.com.my/metro/metro-news/2024/02/02/swiss-coffee-machine-brand-opens-store-in-petaling-jaya

4.10 * 95% = 3.89. 这是个简单的公式。4.10 是报告前的市场估值。报告预测营收降中个位数，假设5%（根据以往经验管理层通常采取保守披露展望的态度，就是事实往往比预期好的报告方式），所以乘以95%。加上还没派发的2023年度赚取的7.5仙和美元增值效应，可以看出已经明显跌出价值。

散户投资者受到惊吓。过度解读 mid single digit revenue decline in USD. 其实即便事实如此，美元对马币与去年比较升值幅度可观，可以大幅抵消这个负面影响。还有，那个还没有派出的7.5仙是2023财政年的收入，所以在估价的时候必须加入考虑。这个股票已有投资机构包括保险机构持有和加码一段时间，对这只股票的估值有深入的研究。加上这只股票的基本面与行业展望并不复杂，因此股价跌破基本面的时间和幅度必然是轻微的。所以我的看法是... 相信你也猜到了。当 Coo1eo 大叔做此声明，我的直觉告诉我，此时开始进场，赚钱容易，等它跌去 3.6 可以赚取暴利但机会相对小。资金大者，应该开始进场分阶段大笔敲进，资金小者可以迟些进场。

What bomb, don't understand

Hi Ooihk, ya, I wish to learn from fundamental sifu also. Based on your understanding and fundamental knowledge of this business, do you think the revenue in USD of Uchi likely to be flat, single digit growth, double digit growth, or contract by year 2024? What are the reasons that support your view? I know we can wait for the QR report, but I would like to know what you think. Thanks.

Following my study I think the impact towards today's share price is mildly negative to zero. But it may create a strong resistance at RM 4. Ooihk, have you ever tasted the coffee made from a Jura machine?

The CQ is expiring tomorrow. The CQ holders will be motivated to exercise the CQ because exercise price RM 3.30 is lower than the market price of mother share. Then Ambank will be forced to buy enough Uchi shares from the market to distribute to the CQ holders. It seems to me the CQ holders made a loss because the purchase price was 15 sen and exercise ratio is 5:1, then the total cost to convert to 1 Uchi share is 15 x 5 + 3.30 = 4.05, or 4.05 * 3.25/3.30 = 3.99 if adjustment due to special dividend paid is considered to be more precisely calculated. Do I understand this correctly?

Structured warrant, when exercised, will dilute future earning per share. And when exercise price is lower than market price, it will create a downward pressure towards the price.

I don't know when is the best time to buy. My strategy is to shortlist a few stocks with 6-7% yield and wait until one of them drop at least 5%. If I miss stock A, nevermind, I can get the rest. I don't have to grab all opportunities, just need to grab some will do. That can make me get more patience.

If exercise of CQ doesn't matter why Shines said "Call Warrant (CQ)Issurers will sure to press down the mother share prices to make it not worth to exercise to the CQ holders"? That is actually why I think it is a force to pressure the price downwards.
As for BNM interest rate, I believe it is going to be near stagnant at current level because this is the level before COVID and MCO etc. I find that 3% to 3.25% is healthy and normal throughout history of many years and believing this is the ideal rate that BNM perceives when inflation is within threshold, where it encourage both economy growth and keep financial imbalance in check. Therefore US interest rate cut will almost certainly strengthen MYR.

I refer back to 2020, 2021, and 2022, price did drop a few percentage from end of Dec to somewhere mid of Jan, very consistently every year.

The USD turning weak is due to FED stop increasing interest rate and reveal the intention to cut the interest rate 3x in 2024.

I did read these report. My understanding is that the call warrant will dilute the shares by 5% on 28th Dec and therefore the EPS and dividend per share will also dilute by 5%. I think that is the main reason of recent correction when EPF (suspected seller) factor in this effect. I would not have discovered this until I read your comment regarding to Uchitec-CQ . In addition to that, USD will turn weak next week where Hong Leong IB predict USD exchange rate to be as low as 4.30 by end of 2024. The earning prospect is unknown yet and probably it will be stated in Q4 report but that will be Feb next year. Perhaps a little patience to observe at least until 28th Dec when the call warrant expired and after end of Dec when window dressing is over would be paid off. Normally price is a bit inflated at end of Dec and price normally "normalised" in Jan.

I observe it is in uptrend for quite long. But along the way there are many corrections when the share price touches temporary peak. I think at this price level I would rather wait for the next quarter report before making any decision.

@Ooihk899, will the exercise of 80,000,000 shares UCHITEC-CQ warrants (exercise price RM 3.30) before 28th Dec create enormous pressure to the share price? If share price is above RM 3.30 it is almost certain that the warrant holders will exercise the warrant to convert it into ordinary shares and very likely they will just sell the shares to realise the gain right? Because if they are happy to hold the shares they would have bought the shares at lower price level before this. Is my unerstanding correct? Following the exercise of the warrant the EPS will be diluted. I like Uchi but I do not like frequent ESOS and warrant issue that dilute the EPS.

@Ooihk899, will the exercise of 80,000,000 shares UCHITEC-CQ warrants (exercise price RM 3.30) before 28th Dec create enormous pressure to the share price? If share price is above RM 3.30 it is almost certain that the warrant holders will exercise the warrant to convert it into ordinary shares and very likely they will just sell the shares to realise the gain right? Because if they are happy to hold the shares they would have bought the shares at lower price level before this. Is my unerstanding correct? Following the exercise of the warrant the EPS will be diluted. I like Uchi but I do not like frequent ESOS and warrant issue that dilute the EPS.

I mean left only RM 79.8 mil which is very small figure compares to the past.

Mr. Ahlian, ya that seems making-sense for long-term investors like me.
But one thing troubled my mind is how come the commodity future contract value at almost all gone in latest quarter report?

No dividend for this quarter as mentioned.

Why dividend policy 60% but actually pay out only 50%? Seems like the company doesnt really follow the policy...

4.8/63 = 7.6% div yield

Park at 0.63... collect on weakness...