aidan89

aidan89 | Joined since 2016-09-20

Investing Experience -
Risk Profile -

Followers

0

Following

0

Blog Posts

0

Threads

3

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
3
Past 30 days
0
Past 7 days
0
Today
0

User Comments
Stock

2019-02-22 11:13 | Report Abuse

Actually, contrary to what DickyMe has suggested, electricity cannot "replace oil". All the mainstream analyses are too optimistics without taking a closer look at the physics/chemistry. We have a liquid fuels problem. This is because modern civilisation depends on trucks (cars don't even matter here - because they are consumer playthings) which likely can't be electrified - they would cost more, their range would decrease because batteries that would provide the same range for a 900-mile long haul route would take up the truck's entire payload at today's level of technology.
http://energyskeptic.com/2017/when-trucks-stop-running-civilization-stops-running/
http://energyskeptic.com/2017/can-the-tesla-semi-really-go-500-miles/

In terms of specific energy, diesel and gasoline are at 50 MJ/kg, while today's commercial lithium batteries are at 1-2 MJ/kg, are we going to get a 25x increase in specific energy anytime soon? People have said for 100 years that a better battery is just around the corner. Note also that we have to mine the lithium first, requiring fossil fuels, and lithium is just a carrier, so the energy in electricity to charge those batteries have to come from (today) 80% non-renewables anyway. Changing the entire system to 100% electricity is not trivial, due to the laws of physics, and the concept called "Energy Return on Investment" (EROI).

All the other trucks that civilisation depends on in mining and agriculture - can these really be run on batteries?

Even if battery-powered trucks and cars went mainstream, there are limits to lithium/cobalt/nickel supplies, and we can't replace the global fleet of cars/trucks today with battery-electric versions, we would have run out of primary materials long before that.

There is also the issue of the electricity grid having too much intermittent wind and solar - we would need giant battery banks (or dams to store the water - there aren't enough rivers left) to store energy for times when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing.

Oil will likely be around for the foreseeable future. Taxes on fossil fuels will likely lead to the situation we see in France, when the true cost of switching to renewables comes to the surface.

Stock

2018-03-08 15:51 | Report Abuse

@leslieroycarter How do you know this?

Stock

2017-08-25 14:16 | Report Abuse

Usually around 20th September.