You do not know licensed analysts job is give professional opinion to their giant licensed investors customers. Suggest you do basic google. You tried to SMEAR SCIENTEX AND ANALYSTS REPUTATION with FAKE STORY that they PRESSURED TO REDUCE TP. Make no sense because their income is from their giant licensed customers, not little plastic company. REPORT TO SC MACC if you believe so, then will believe you are not EVIL.
@dragon328, you claim "Looking at the declining EBITDA margin of Daibochi in its quarterly results from Q1FY2020 to Q4FY2021, I do not see much cost saving in raw material procurement with Scientex, nor improved efficiency at its factories."
Beg to differ. Think your view is base on selective reasoning that exclude other factor.
Q1FY2020 to Q4FY2021, many factor can affect profit, Daibochi kitchen sink, Mega acquisition/integration, pandemic start Q2FY2020, Myanmar crisis, other material of Daibochi/Mega/Myanmar not currently supply by Scientex, 3 company foreign exchange, Daibochi/Mega capacity expansions, cost of pandemic and lock down and slow down etc etc
Since many factor distort info, disagree that track "EBITDA margin" for 8 quarters (7 are pandemic quarter) can justify your claim Scietex bring no improvement in "cost saving or efficiency".
How you know no improvement after Daibochi buy material from Scientex? Did the early switch to Scientex save Daibochi performance for 8 quarters? Material price increasing, Daibochi small at mercy if buy external. And did other material price not buy from Scientex increase?
Same distortion on efficiency improvement. Maybe double impact from pandemic and Myanmar crisis, Daibochi not melt down because of Scientex? (APOLLO: "Scientex appears to have done a good job with operational improvements"). Also Mega acquisition and more capacity expansion, all this distort number.
If I am Daibochi/Scientex small investor, prefer simple track PAT/EPS. Will be happy to see after 1 year Scientex control, Daibochi PAT grow from RM27m to RM47m, and pandemic repeat another RM47m PAT. Impressive. (APOLLO: "We salute the Daibochi team for this performance"). Do not forget Daibochi team also mean Scientex team. I will feel lucky my investment safe. Do not think old management of Daibochi can do the same for me.
But can I sleep? Not yet.
Concern what next, profit grow or fall? Seem they are fighting crisis (Scientex offer document: restructure, rationalise, enhance operations because challenging pandemic). If big boy not confident, that scares me and hint about Daibochi future. But seem bigger boy Apollo see differently (APOLLO: "we hope that it would not risk losing its most vital asset, the trust of its long-term customers."). Both party opinion contradictory and it is unclear what future is. If Apollo correct, Daibochi might lose all, and if Scientex correct, means Daibochi also at risk.
Next question offer price and portfolio strategy, whether keep in Daibochi (follow Apollo philosophy avoid property, chase own forecast high intrinsic value), or switch to Scientex proven big boy that grow and stabilise Daibochi until Q4FY2021 and want more M&A.
Will also consider if Daibochi need to grow by M&A or capacity expansion they can not, and could not, do it them self, was always Scientex. But those are portfolio allocation strategy and different for every one. No need to SMEAR names with your little tricks and HARM other innocent people.
Stock: [SCIPACK]: SCIENTEX PACKAGING (AYER KEROH) BERHAD
2021-10-03 16:21 | Report Abuse
@dragon328, I rest my case.
You do not know licensed analysts job is give professional opinion to their giant licensed investors customers. Suggest you do basic google. You tried to SMEAR SCIENTEX AND ANALYSTS REPUTATION with FAKE STORY that they PRESSURED TO REDUCE TP. Make no sense because their income is from their giant licensed customers, not little plastic company. REPORT TO SC MACC if you believe so, then will believe you are not EVIL.
@dragon328, you claim "Looking at the declining EBITDA margin of Daibochi in its quarterly results from Q1FY2020 to Q4FY2021, I do not see much cost saving in raw material procurement with Scientex, nor improved efficiency at its factories."
Beg to differ. Think your view is base on selective reasoning that exclude other factor.
Q1FY2020 to Q4FY2021, many factor can affect profit, Daibochi kitchen sink, Mega acquisition/integration, pandemic start Q2FY2020, Myanmar crisis, other material of Daibochi/Mega/Myanmar not currently supply by Scientex, 3 company foreign exchange, Daibochi/Mega capacity expansions, cost of pandemic and lock down and slow down etc etc
Since many factor distort info, disagree that track "EBITDA margin" for 8 quarters (7 are pandemic quarter) can justify your claim Scietex bring no improvement in "cost saving or efficiency".
How you know no improvement after Daibochi buy material from Scientex? Did the early switch to Scientex save Daibochi performance for 8 quarters? Material price increasing, Daibochi small at mercy if buy external. And did other material price not buy from Scientex increase?
Same distortion on efficiency improvement. Maybe double impact from pandemic and Myanmar crisis, Daibochi not melt down because of Scientex? (APOLLO: "Scientex appears to have done a good job with operational improvements"). Also Mega acquisition and more capacity expansion, all this distort number.
If I am Daibochi/Scientex small investor, prefer simple track PAT/EPS. Will be happy to see after 1 year Scientex control, Daibochi PAT grow from RM27m to RM47m, and pandemic repeat another RM47m PAT. Impressive. (APOLLO: "We salute the Daibochi team for this performance"). Do not forget Daibochi team also mean Scientex team. I will feel lucky my investment safe. Do not think old management of Daibochi can do the same for me.
But can I sleep? Not yet.
Concern what next, profit grow or fall? Seem they are fighting crisis (Scientex offer document: restructure, rationalise, enhance operations because challenging pandemic). If big boy not confident, that scares me and hint about Daibochi future. But seem bigger boy Apollo see differently (APOLLO: "we hope that it would not risk losing its most vital asset, the trust of its long-term customers."). Both party opinion contradictory and it is unclear what future is. If Apollo correct, Daibochi might lose all, and if Scientex correct, means Daibochi also at risk.
Next question offer price and portfolio strategy, whether keep in Daibochi (follow Apollo philosophy avoid property, chase own forecast high intrinsic value), or switch to Scientex proven big boy that grow and stabilise Daibochi until Q4FY2021 and want more M&A.
Will also consider if Daibochi need to grow by M&A or capacity expansion they can not, and could not, do it them self, was always Scientex. But those are portfolio allocation strategy and different for every one. No need to SMEAR names with your little tricks and HARM other innocent people.