The last date of change on EPF was on Aug 15, about 26.7mil shares sold. Holdings is now below 5%. We are not going to see any further announcements from EPF until they buy back Harta shares and go back to 5% and above! Hopefully, is less disruptive on the share price from now onwards.......There maybe still another 2 or 3 quarters that earnings might be weak! Further weakness is an opportunity for some and pains for others! If Harta can maintain the 3.5sen per quarter for the next few quarters, I view it as a positive support of its share price! Hopefully, I am not too wrong on this........
The main goal of any share repurchase program is to deliver a higher share price. The board may feel that the company's shares are undervalued, making it a good time to buy them. Meanwhile, investors may perceive a buyback as an expression of confidence by the management.
Harta management is in the best position to judge if it is "undervalued".......
Kossan did a token share purchased in yesterday Bursa announcement.
Harta should just take out RM100mil to do some share buy back. This way, EPF will back off from selling. 100mil can mop up 50mil shares from the market at RM2 a piece....Hartalega have 2bil cash in balance sheet!
* April 4th : 279,108,389 (Share Price around RM5.00) * Aug 8th : 236,591,289 (Share Price around RM2.80) * EPF net sold about 42mil shares in about 4 months * I suspect the selling by EPF is the main cause of the price drop! * While business is affected somewhat of late, the share price retreat is kind of overdone! * Short term, price volatility is still expected if EPF is still at it! * For long term investors still pack with bullets, this is a great opportunity! * Good companies there are many but great ones are rare in Malaysia!
For the final quarter ended 31 March 2022 (Q4FY22), the Group registered a lower revenue of RM 968.7 million, recording a decrease of RM 1.34 billion or 58% from the corresponding quarter in the preceding year (Q4FY21). The lower revenue was mainly due to the normalising average selling price (ASP) mitigated by the increase in sales volume by 9%. Profit before tax has decreased by RM 1.29 billion or 85.6% to RM 218.4 million, as compared to RM 1.51 billion in Q4FY21. The decrease in profit before tax was mainly due to the decrease in sales revenue coupled with higher operating cost. The Group recorded loss after tax of RM 189.7 million during the quarter which was due to the provision of Prosperity Tax (Cukai Makmur).
EPF did an aggressive sell down in Jun (about 30mil shares) and then bought back about 20mil shares on Jun29 & 30. Since then, it has continue the sell actions though with a lesser degree. Not sure what EPF is doing? Their buy/sell actions is not making any sense!
GDB is very easy to figure out in the next 12 months.
For short term guys, look for next 3 months Q4 result.
For a bit longer term guys, look for the next year revenue and profits numbers.
For you, I believe you have all figured out!
Most look at the daily price and not what the business can generate!
The most difficult part is to figure out long term like 5 to 10 years, what GDB will be. That I know, GDB is helmed by experience and trustworthy bosses. This is the most important, if you are long term guys!
Of late, i see feeling of despair on some of the postings, don't be!
While many including myself like the feelings of fast trade, it is not a wrong thing but really GDB is not a "trading stock". GDB is really an "investing stock". In investing, you look for yearly compounding returns. For me, at least 15% a year on capital gain and a dividend yield of 3% (minimum).
In the last 3 years, GDB fulfilled my investment targets, in fact, it is actually doing much better! In the next 3 years, is GDB going to meet my expectation? Yes, i think so (my investment instinct tells me so).
Patients is needed in investing! That is why i needed at least 3% dividend yield while waiting for the investment to bear fruits.
Many including myself were expecting some excitements on GDB's bonus issues lately but it did not happened. So, many actually feel kind of a let down! But if you look at it positively and believe that GDB can and will grow their revenue and PAT in the next 5 years, then the warrants especially going to give us a much higher compounded returns than the mother share! The current softer market sentiments actually present an opportunity!
I am invested in GDB since 2018 and it is my best so far in last 11 years. There are better ones out there but i am happy to be associated with GDB so far.
Do research on the construction counters for the last 3 years and compare with GDB, and i bet you will come to the same conclusion like me!
If you take 8 Conaly 1.25bil contract value and divided by 34 months, you will get an average of 368 mil per month. So for a quarter is about 110 mil. Plus other projects still in progress, you can expect coming Q1 as a revenue boosting quarter. In fact, the whole year of 2021 will be a revenue boosting year if 8 Conlay project execution runs smoothly!
Although the contract recognition is not proportion, you are likely to see revenue boost for GDB starting from Q1,2021 onwards.
As for the PAT, I can't really say much due to not sure on the margin of 8 Conlay!
The 8 Conlay is an iconic project! A good completion and well execution on this project will boost the image of GDB further for future prestigious projects!
As I have been invested in GDB since 2018, I hope it will do well going forward.
Management has been fair and reasonable so far......
My opinion is that GDB will need to achieve at least 9 sen EPS for 2021 and pays about 3sen dividend in order to be continued the attractiveness to investors.....
Hopefully, 8 Conlay is a better margin project and project execution runs smoothly! The coming Q1 result is crucial and will show some signs on the margin of 8 Conlay.
In order to sustain the profitability for 2022, GDB needs to secure sufficient new orders before the end of this year. This is because most projects on hand will end this year and left with 8 Conlay and Park Regent for 2022......