Privatisation will not take place soon.

According to the slides at Hibiscus Petroleum website, retailers hold about 3X% and Institutional (funds) about 50-60% management 10%. We will need the funds to pare down their holdings and Management to significantly take more control.

My wish for 2025 is to gradually climb back up. And do not wish to see C69 and C71 to be in favour of the IBs.

Meaning share price to be above Rm2.15 by end May and of course above Rm1.85 by end July. CIMB is the worst

Congrats STFUrr88. I am also trying to accumulate more, bit by bit, whenever funds allowed.

Happy to see big boss Michael back to collect more

125k lots shorts today, bringing down the price to RM1.96

We all know yesterday SBB was 1000 lots. Shorts covering yesterday was 238 lots.

However, there were 22 lots new shorts.

Hope to see stronger shorts covering to provide us with a signal that bottom has been found

My friends

https://ir2.chartnexus.com/hibiscuspetroleum/docs/press/2024%20Hibiscus%20Investor%20Presentation%20-%20Dec%20R1.pdf

Please take some time to understand the company a little better.

Hibiscus now is almost 50:50 Oil to Gas. Gas price is creeping higher.

Since now we are at lows of over 2 years time frame, all shorts will make money. We can’t stop them.

What we should hope instead is for more shorts covering. That should signal the bottom is found and the more they do that, more buyers will come back. There is still rm28 mil to cover. Hopefully this may push the price up by 10 cents if not more.

What I am fearful of and disgust is if C69 at rm2.15 by may and C71 at rm1.85 by July will be out of money!! Please, let these IB lose money on these 2 if not all call warrants.

Shorts covering 282k lots yesterday

Net shorts now 14,222k lots

Alextan it can be seen usually the next morning on bursa malaysia website. Go to market statistics - securities. Then find the net short sellers box.

There were no shorts on 12/12. Net shorts remain the same as 14,496k. Tomorrow we will be able to see if that figure changes to reflect any shorts covering.

With 700k SBB, but volume about 3mil, there are still a lot of sellers selling at a loss. At this price anything that was bought since 2022 is a loss, so the sellers must be selling at a loss.

I topped up another 5k lots at RM2.01. Just hope to get dividends on January 2025, and add on again.

Heavy selling today despite no short sellers today. Even with RM2million SBBs today, the price still fell 4 cents.

Sometimes I wonder if Management should revise their dividend policy. They are effectively paying about 13% of net profit but have used up RM80-90 million for SBBs alone. If they announce say 20% dividend payout policy, this is definitely feasible, but I suppose, they prefer to buy out all the sellers approach

Important update:

Short covering has started. Yesterday 887k lots was covered. Net Shorts now is 14,496k lots.

Quiet few days and price movement nothing exciting

Gathering some thoughts here

Negatives:

- Oil price seems to trend down, not helping
- 3 new call warrants issued HIBISCS-70, HIBISCS-71 and HIBISCS-72. HIBISCS-71 in particular has strike price of only RM1.85. This warrant is current "In the Money" but conversion rate is 4:1. With a long expiry date.
- Shorts covering not taking place yet
- Looking at the volume, doubt new players/funds taking a position in Hibiscus despite the superb valuation

Positives
-Since the shares cancellation, price has risen and sort of stabilized from RM1.96 to RM2.08
-Since Management is gungho on the production rates, expecting Q2 to be 100mil in profits, so EPS maybe around 0.13
-SBB continues with gusto. Roughly RM11 million spent
-Shorties missing in action

It's more interesting to see what happens since the share cancellations

Total SBB = 4,073 mil shares
Total shorts covering = 120k shares

Total Shorts = 83k shares

Throughout the above period, the share price was moving RM1.96 to RM2.09 and now back to RM2.06/8.

Basically, the shorties are not bringing down the share price, they are overwhelmed by the SBBs and of very small volume after the Share Cancellations. We can see that the SBBs are about 25% of daily volume traded. So for 75% who are the sellers who are keep losing money/cutting loss?

Wow! Shorts covering seems to be picking up.

Update from yesterday's data

Shorts = 13 lots

Covering = 91 lots
SBB = 238 lots
Me = 5 lots

Today Shorties short 13 lots but SBB is 238 lots and I personally top up 5 lots hehehe. Tomorrow we will be able to see how much was covered

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DtsUPdw_Do

This is a good analysis by Aaron Pek

Couldn't resist not to ride along the strong momentum. Topped up another 5k lots at RM2.09 today. Hopefully few months down the road, it will justify my decision.

After cancelling RM78 million worths of shares, SBB continues with another RM6 million from that date.

Maybank want to talk about incurring debt? Company got worse off by buying Brunei gas deal? Company will be in huge debt to fund that deal? Here's how the company shows they've got cash and balls

Hopefully with new set of buyers from Icapital and CGS as well as existing funds topping up when they noticed this upward momentum, shorties will begin to cover

So yesterday was kind of weird. There were 12 lots shorted but also covering of 12 lots. No SBB yesterday and the price closed flat at RM2.03

15.4 million shares. Still do not see them covering.

0 lots short sellers yesterday and 1275 lots SBB. Let's keep the momentum going!

I cannot help but suspect the call warrants especially the most recent ones 67, 68, 69 by Maybank, Affin Hwang and CIMB to be the culprit and it only goes to show that they are the ones who has the motives to short sell. As what wattsy said, would love to see them burn.

First off, CIMB, HIBISCUS-69 with a strike price of RM2.15 by 30 May 2025. 6 months to go and we are at RM2.00. Good luck!

wattsy has a valid point. 50% is now coming from gas. Yet the analyst report only talks about Oil.

Not sure if SBB hits 10% the share price easily goes above RM3, with the recent 4.8% it only barely defended against the lows of RM1.88 to RM1.96 and today RM2.0......so just 12 cents

Disappointing day! But taking it as a learning. Despite almost cancelling 36 million shares, using up roughly above RM72 million, it did nothing to the share price. That's why I prefer receiving dividend bonus, the holdings in your hand will increase in value and you can see the tangible result.

In theory, the valuation has dropped around 5% today, but does the market realises this? So I am topping up 5,000 lots today.

Very excited for tomorrow's share price adjustment. 5% is more than the total dividend payout per annum.

The best part is management has already resumed SBB, 190,000 lots today.

I will also look at call warrant HIBISCUS-69 whereby the Call price is RM2.15. If it's not adjusted upwards, then it seems like a good buy, for those who has less capital but wish to ride on the turnaround in share price. The gap is narrowing and the expiry is end of May 2025, so a good 6 months time to close up 10+ cents. Seems very possible.

This is now very interesting. I would have wished to receive bonus shares dividend, but I guess the management has other ideas. Share price 1.96 with the new share quantity, should be 2.05.

Secondly committed dividend of 8cts should now be 8.4cts

I wonder what will happen to the call warrants? Price adjustments too? Lets see tomorrow

And does anybody know if shares cancellation will affect NTA?

For the last 2 weeks

Net Short Sell was: -1.44 million shares today it is -1.53 million
Total SBB was: 9 million shares

Hibiscus has tons of money. It's proven by spending RM18 million in cash just like that in the span of 2 weeks.

But we cannot attribute the poor share price only towards to short sellers, what about other sellers? Why are they cutting lost over a PE 3.X and PB 0.5 company?

Too bad, big boss Michael Tang hasn't resume collection again at this bargain price.

Really hope the SBBs will be distributed to all shareholders, it will be a big bonus for us. At this rate, they can declare a 1 for 20 units, which automatically adds 5% to your holdings

Please watch Q1 2025 results or visit Hibiscus Petroleum's website > Investor Relations page
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRRsK58djK0

There's many informative slides. Love how bullish Hibiscus management is regarding oil price at 70-80.

For US shale to work oil price cannot go too low.

Management keep repeating Q2 will be 2.5 Mbarrels even when we are in the middle of Q2, therefore Q2 numbers will be significantly better.

Assets will be revaluated upwards back again since USD is 4.45 as opposed to 4.1x during Q1, so the NTA numbers will improve and the Price to Book will also improve.

I am monitoring the SBB and the momentum is seriously strong. Company has used up RM70 million. But if we see the cash in bank balance, it has grown RM187mil. What if Q2 numbers are better? There's still capacity from the warchest to continue SBB.

For the short sellers, they have 15 million shares to cover. I'll be sweating if I'm them.

For Hibiscus-c69 call warrant, call price 2.15 in May 2025 by CIMB. I highly suspect they will lose money. Let's continue buying!! Continue your averaging down/up. It's the only way we can win and show support through action.