kukubird27

kukubird27 | Joined since 2023-09-08

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

When discount above 30%, better share buyback, use at lest 10-20% from remaining current cash pool, consider it as invest a counter with guarantee 30% profit per year. If so, ICAP will not miss opportunity if market no crash and can keep hold cash, NAV will also increase. I don't think new dividend system will works. As long term investor, I will not emphasize discounted price because don't want to sell. So far TTB too focus on narrowing discounted price. What long term invstor emphasize is good performance of NAV. Best solution is share buy back if market no crash. TTB is waiting market crash like 2008/09, which already wait for 15 years, actually 2020 is another opportunity, but he didn't take advantage of this opportunity. If you go back 2012 and use 30% share buyback strategy I mentioned above, and assume next 30% discounted price will appear again in every 2 or 3 years, means you have opportunity to share buyback every 2-3 years using 10 or 20% cash, how much current NAV now? I think amazing NAV will cause the discount price range to automatically narrow. Not sure whether TTB learn Kelly Strategy?

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2023-10-17 20:23 | Report Abuse

My impression is this: I still remember before 2010, you could see advertisements in local newspapers mentioning that ICAP could achieve an annual interest rate of 15%, based on the performance of several previous virtual/offline Icapital related funds. Afterwards, you may notice that the TTB says about 10-12%, not 15% anymore. Later, he said it was about 8% higher than the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Finally, is better than FD and you will not lose due to price trade below NAV,something like that. Therefore, I believe the price is below NAV because investors are disappointed with TTB's performance from 2009-202x

Now he says the current trend is good and even hinted that a 15% return could be achieved. But I doubt one thing. He said that the United States is in big trouble, but it will not affect the entire world because we has China. Don’t you remember that he mentioned similar things before 2010? It affected ICAP's performance in subsequent years. So, will he be right this time? Or TTB make the same mistake again in the next five years?
I think his proclivity toward China is causing problems

Many years ago TTB mention if Nestle drop to 2x or 3x, he will buy, at that time seem like Nestle above 100. Just curious how come 2009 he not change those rubbish ICAP counter such as Pakson to Nestle counter or other blue chip counter, if not no need to wait next 5 years, now NAV should be more than 6. We all should know blue chip will first recovery. Then mention what MYEG already know earlier just don't want what relationship politic bla bla bla.

I've held ICAP since 2009, and as a long-term investor, it's not the fact that its share price trades at a steep discount to its net asset value that pains me. What pains me is 15% before 2009, but drop to now single digit %. If TTB can achieve 12-15%, I don't mind keep waiting to grow my money even no dividend. But the problem is performance keep dropping. If an investor buy ICAP on "stock price" 2.0 in 2010, and now 2023, NAV is 3.5, his compound % from price 2.0 to current NAV 3.5 only 5.2%, better than FD only. I check Warren Buffect same period, he can achieve 11.52%. We need to know not everybody bought it before 2006-2008 or when ICAP price 1.19 in 2009.

2008 Jan NAV 2.24
2009 Jan NAV 1.57
2010 Jan NAV 2.08
2023 Oct NAV 3.54

So we can sit and see for next 6 years, whether he fail again? And cause ICAP only can compete with FD rate? or "this time not same?". But I already made my decision what to do if price and NAV come close. He blame what London XXX, but for me, his bad performance is root of everything,