Then they should have collected when the price retreated from 39 to 31. as well as collecting from 31 to 38 when it rebound. Shark is not the shark Not shark is a shark.

Just an observation, in early part of this WA run, you need volume of 60m to make a significant push. Now, you need only 6m. Probably, there are not many weak hands in the market now, and the free float is significantly reduced. It will be easier to defense at higher price to get a better 5D VWAP.

People keep telling you this is not Arbitrage! You are not buying one instrument and selling another at the same time. Read book also no use Must understand.

@Ted1777, The one with 5.83% has insider info? He has investable asset of US4.xx

The simplest form of arbitrage is purchasing an asset in the market where the price is lower and simultaneously selling the asset in the market where the asset’s price is higher. (Extracted from CFI website)
If you sell BIMB mother share and then buy WA can be considered as arbitrage?

I just earnt what is Arbitrage by doing a google today:
Arbitrage is the purchase and sale of an asset in order to profit from a difference in the asset's price between markets. It is a trade that profits by exploiting the price differences of identical or similar financial instruments in different markets or in different forms.

There could be few possible outcomes, not just one.

The reason I brought up the old article is to emphasize the important of going through your own Thought Process properly, just like the writer did.

I was just sharing a piece of thought from someone else for his reasoning which could still be useful now. I clearly stated that the published date was 28/12/2019. I think almost everyone in this forum know that there was a new announcement recently. Please don't be so suspicious and hostile to others.

It was mentioned in HLG most recent (9/2) research article that "With regards to its corporate restructuring exercise, the new targeted completion timeline is now Jul-Aug 2021."

I happen to have a piece of thought written by someone else on 28/12/2019. I can't remember where it was published, or it could be a blog.
To be profitable in equity trading, it all voice down to individual analysis and getting ideas from others. off course, actions is required.

Success of BIMB Restructuring - Minority warrant holders have significant influence??

Saturday, 28 December 2019

I am a BIMB warrant holder and keen to know more about the Proposed Restructuring announced recently.
Firstly, I wanted to evaluate whether my 10 to 15% return within 9 months can materialise?
Secondly, what are the chances I can get even more return eg BIMB offer a more attractive price if the restructuring could not get warrant holders' buy in?
Lastly, if the Scheme of Arrangement fails (not buying back all outstanding warrants), what will happen to warrant price?

There is a long list of approval required for the Proposal which include BNM, Ministry of Finance, SC, Bursa, shareholders, warrant holders, High Court and creditors. Yes, it needs warrant holders approval ( If I am not wrong, Scheme of Arrangement under S366 of Companies Act requires no less than 75% approval).
Looking at the warrant holders list as at 31/3/2019, Lembaga Tabung Haji & ASB only have 27.54% & 7.02% respectively. Top 30 warrant holders only hold 59.47% of warrant outstanding, so it is rather scattered and many individuals with significant portion appeared on the Top 30 list. So, in order to get majority (75% if I am not wrong), the offer price must be attractive enough. But the challenge of valuing warrant is complicated ( I am not good at Black Scholes Model), hence, what is the fair price then?
In the Announcement under para 4.2, I noted it mentioned the 5-day VWAP of warrant up to Latest Practicable Date (LPD) as at 15 Nov 2019 is 29 sen but Para 2.2.1, the price is fixed at 26 sen being the 5-day VWAP of warrant upto 10 Dec 2019. That is 11.5% down ( I could be looking at 25 to 28% return within 9 months if it is 29 sen....).
For those who bought at higher than the offer price of 26 sen, my bet is they would not vote in favour of the SOA and rather bet for another 3 years plus hoping the warrant price can go higher instead). Of course, it all depend on ones' opportunity cost holding on to the warrant or take the 26 sen.

That probably also explain why some are even selling it for 23sen now or this portion of warrant are just too insignificant to the sellers' portfolio eg few funds on the list or for those who believe they can recycle the capital for higher return than the 10 to 15% within 9 months and of course, those who don't believe SOA will be approved and price will drop further after that.
Yes, looking at the offer price of 26 sen, this SOA may fail and I would not be able to realise my 10 to 15% return within 9 months. Would I suffer huge loss instead?? As the warrant is currently selling at only 11% premium and there is another 4 years to go, I would take my chance. Furthermore, I am sure BIMB has already considered the likelihood it may not get sufficient warrant holders approval at 26 sen offer price. But what is their Plan B to ensure sufficient approval? Started to buy now to gain more control ? Counter offer at higher price??

Anyway, this is an allocation of my cash reserve for potentially better return, it is not significant and yet, I take it as I do not want to miss an opportunity that is reasonably certain.
Or we may be able to demand for more by writing to them prior to the meeting....hahaha.
Please do your own evaluation before buying even if you agree with my view.

If you are the syndicate, would you want to push up the price so fast, knowing that you are in the winning position? Would it be better to collect slowly now?

Let's see whether the trading volume will go down and yet price move up.

Of the 426m WA, 142m is in Institution hands (Top 2 holders) which they will hold tight. We can assume that the remaining 294m could be traded in the market (top 3 to top 30 WA holder are individuals). For the past 5 Days, the volume of WA traded is 336m (110+48+65+74+39). If the push in the morning and before closing is done by syndicate, the amount of WA collected could easily be about 60%,ie around 200m. This left 94m free float in the market? Is WA going to e cornered soon? As it is now, the syndicate is already in a profitable position (average cost 0.32)

They got the warrants from day one at no cost.

It is likely that LTH and other institutions major share holders will not sell any time to depress the 5D VWAP. Better for them to wait till price fixing date.

If you look at the chart pattern from 2/2 onwards, there is a high volume push to intra day high early in the morning, before 10am. Who is doing this? Then it will settle down for contra player to cash in. It looks like will end at around 0.36 today, unless the is an end of week push.

Lembaga Tabung Haji holds 27.54%

62.18% of warrants hold by top 30 warrant holders.

The outstanding warrant is 426,715,078. about 50% traded yesterday and up till today

Using Black Scholes Option calculator, the warrant price should be between 0.50 to 0.6, based on strike price of 4.72, 34mths to expiry, volatility of 35% to 40%, dividend yield of 5%, risk free interest of 2%

WCT has completed a nicely drawn out reversed SHS, pulled back to neckline on right shoulder, and broken the last local high in Nov 16. Target of 2.40 is reasonable.

WCT chart pattern is forming a very nice reverse SHS pattern with a pull back to the neckline

nothing great. net profit increased because of forex gain. Once off.