Assuming next two qtrs profits are 100 and 100 millions respectively, the total profits for FY 2020
will be 338 millions. Divided by 494 millions shares, eps will be 68 sen. Using PE of 15 will give a tgt price of 10.2 ringgit. There is an upside of 45%

Jacky, I started investing in.mfcb since 5 years ago and keep adding more over the last one year. Converted all warrants in.April this year. This stock give me the best return.in.absolute terms and I intend to hold until the values are fully realised . Different investors have different tastes. MFCB is slow.and steady unlike glove stocks which are fast and furious.I m waiting for better and more lucrative dividends next year.

Gemfinder, the first half eps is 28s not 32 s. The number of shares has increase to 494 million after many warrant conversions plus ESOS . You cannot just add the two eps literally . You should take the 2 qtrs profits and divide the total by 494 millions dhares

Mfcb price went up 63 sen the next day after it publishef its Q1 result of 13.49 sen eps. The next day it went uo another 42 sen . With yestrrday announcement of 18.93 s eps for Q2, I ecpect similar or better increase of prices tomorrow and next week. It should hit 8 next week.

Investor77, analysts are projecting very high earnings for both supermx and topglove for FY 2021. The PE range between 10 to 15 of 2021 earnings. Their earnings are few x of FY 2020 earnings. Thats is reasons why you see high tgt prices. I think.PE of 15 is a reasonable number for mfcb. I estimated mfcb earning to be about 65 to 70 sen this year and between 70 to 75 s next year

Steady31, I still hold some jaks . DS use free water as fuel whereas Jaks use coal. The DS.margins are as high as 60 to 75 % which.Jaks is not abke to compare. I believe Jaks share price will.go up once both units.start COB. Jsks as a company has its property business burdening its financial whereas MFCB other business are seen.as pluses

melanie18181818, Did I said Topglove market.cap is the same as Apple???. I am talking about future earnings of Topglove and its improving margins. When you compare two companies, there are.various attributes to compare. Market cap is one of the many? Why you intentionally pick.market cap and call me idiot. It showed your poor upbringing . If someone name a. Malaysian great investor with yearly return of 25 to.30 % as Warren.buffet of Malaysia, do you call him an idiot just because the great investor manage.a few billions ringgit.compated with a few hundred billions by Warren Buffet??? 真的没有口续没有家教.

It is hard for many to visualise and grasp how big are the potential earning of Topglove for the next 1.5 years. We used to talk about how many billions order book a company has. Based on the presentations and briefing ,Topglove already have an estimated of more than 20 billions real orders which need to be fulfilled in the next 18 months. These orders are with increasing ASPs and margins.The total profits from these orders are estimated to be more than doubled than the total profits made by Topglove in the last 20 years . This is how big the potential. Topglove will soon.become the Apple of USA.

Excellent result and very.close to.my earlier prediction of 20s eps. Earning has a 266%
yoy improvement. QOQ is also.very good at 40%.The PAT margin also improved to 45% from last qtr 36%. With historically highest rainfal in July, August and September, DS will deliver even.higher revenue and profits next qtr. I think we can.expect more than 20s eps in coming qtr. I have added my investment in mfcb in the last few weeks and mfcb remain my number 1 investment in my portfolio. It is not easy to find such.stock.in.Bursa with.good profit.growth, excellent profit margin, good cash flow and reasonable dividend. Next is income stability and visibility.for the next 25years. Cheers.and congratulations to all mfcb shareholdets

I am happy that I have added both.topglove and supermx last week and this monday when their prices corrected significantly. I am confident with these 2 stocks based on the following facts. The leadtimes for delivery increased from. about one month to more than a year with increasing ASPS mom since Feb . With record profits announced in last qtrs results, it also implied and infer that hese two counters will have increasing and record profits for the next 4 to 5 qtrs . Both companies had also added capacities which will.further increase the revenues and profits in the next.few qtrs

Supermx has s leadtime of about a year. It means that if you place an order today with this month August pricing, your order will only be
fulfilled next year August. Since the ASP s has been.increasing from Feb onwards and the leadtime also increases from one month to 12 months starting from Feb, we ca

expect significant qoq profit improvements for the next 4 qtrs.Next qtr revenue and profits will.most likely be based on.April pricing , Q2 revenue will be based on May pricing and Q3 based on June pricing and so on.The peak qtrly earningt will most likely be in 2022 .

If you understand what is leadtime , you will understand why Supermx management stated that the high ASP s were not reflected in last qtr revenue and profits . When the leadtime started to increase from one month to a few months in March and April and then to a.year in.May ,June and mote than a year in July and August, it means that the gloves shipped in.April, May and June are from the pricing fixed in.Feb or March . The 13x improvementvof profits yoy comes mainly from the big allocation of OEM.to OBM . The real price increases in.April ,will be reflected in July ,August ,September or Q1 2021 revenue and profits. The May pricing.will be reflectef will be reflected in Q2 2021 , June pricing will be reflcted in Q3 and July pricing.will be reflected in Q4 and so on till 2022 as long as the leadtime continue to be a year or more. Therefore I foresee the next few qtrs with increasing profits .and revenue. The peaks profits will.defintely not in the next qtr but Q4 or in 2022 if prices continue to increase in Srptember onwards and leadtime continue to be.more than s year.

What is brewing with mfcb? On 20 July, .DS power plant achieved cumulative generation of 1 G KWH electricity .With an.average of US 7 sen per KWH, a simple mathematics will show.that mfcb Q2 electricity generated is 60 %
more than Q1. MFCB Q1 eps is 13.59 s with DS revenue of 103 million, you can estimate the Increase in profit of Q 2 . An eps of 20s in Q2 is highly possible. This will give a yoy profit of mote than 300%.

probability, I bought both topglove.and.supermx because of OTB recommendation too. OTB.is good in both.TA and FA.

probability, glad to see u in this glove forum

hsbm, sent

steady31, just sent

already sent to both of you

Jeffreyboy, pls give me you email or whatsapp address

KL Tneoh, thanks. I already got the report through my remisier . Cheers

KL Neoh, thanks for the update. It is indeed good news .Can you help to provide the link for RHB Report.

A good start early in the morning. Up 42 s to 7.10.

steady31, I will not sell until the power plant reach full potential of more than 90 %
utilization or until the total eps reach 65 sen. Well if there is 30 sen per year dividend , I wont sell . Keep it for retirement

wow. superb closing at 6.68, up 63 sen today.

steady31, I estimated mfcb total eps for this year to be about 65s . A PE of 15 is reasonable in view of its consistent earning for many years to come plus its commitment on.paying a generous dividend.

probability, mfcb is my saviour this year . It has gone up.30% since the close of 5.00 at the end of 2019. I believe mfcb still has room.to go up further when the power plant hit the 90 and 98 % utilization not to mention the potential of the 5th.turbine plus its other businesses.

Thank you probability. I thought you bought some earlier at below 5.00-

mfcb result is out. EPS is 13.49 s which is within our estimation

I think mfcb Q1 result will be out today. Estimated eps to be between 12 to 15 s due to dry season from Jan to March . The power plant only run 3 turbines instead of 4. However, the lower interest rates plus higher exchange rates will help eps and compensate for the loss due to dry.season. My opinion.

mfcb hit 5.63, higher than previous peak .

Let me talk to him. He is very busy with a full time job in Korea. He is afraid that he may not have the time to answer queries.

DK66, I supposed my son Jonathan is one of the 3 asking you some questions privately. He came up with a spreadsheet detaling the earnings , cash flow etc for 25 years with some assumptions mainly from your previous articles. Hope you can help to clarify some of his questions. His spreafsheet also seperate.capacity payment and energy payment. Thanks

MJ Lee, mfcb is my number 1 investment in my portfolio. Fundamentally,.mfcb is a good stock. In last qtr result, the management announced a.6 sen dividend . Based on public invest report, a 30 sen dividend per year is possible if mfcb can make consistent profit of 250 million as projected annually. . The dividend yield is about 6 % at current price.

mfcb continue with its uptrend hitting 5.12. This is just 8 % lower than the previous peak of 5.50.
Based on public invest report, the Don Sahong power plant is not affected by the corona virus pandemic. With the much lower interest rate, mfcb will save about 23 million per year. Besides, the exchange rate of 4.35 vs 4.00 will increase profitability since Don Sahong is paid in.US Dollars. With these improvements, I estimated its annual eps of more than 60 sen. This translate into PE ratio of 8.5 only.

mike168, I think the article you posted is on Jaks . I t should be posted in i3 forum

Hi Guys,in another few weeks, the 1st Qtr result will be out.
With the current developments of project delay plus mco,
pls do not be surprised if Public invest downgrade jaks
tgt price .Just be prepared unless you just ignore the write up.
I still hold a few hundred k of Jaks . Knowing public invest do not take into consideration the potential earning of power plant in the last qtr write ups, public invest will.continue to ignore the powerplant future earning.

MFCB is touching 5.00 again. Good rebound . This stock rebound the most compared with other stocks except the glove stocks which benefitted from corona virus outbreak

Lets be objective and put the emotions aside. I did not see a sell.call in OTB email to me. He just asked me to check his revised down estimates of 2020 earnings to see if there is any mistake. The mco impsct is real., the delays in.power plant completion is also real . There is no doubt that 2020 earlier projected earning of rm 180 millions is no more valid. Jaks is a medium to long term.investment .OTB had repeatedly.said that investing in Jaks , you must be able to hold till mid 2021 when the results of jaks are released with power plant fully operational. He still maintained 2021 earnings of 240 million which is 37 sen eps. Now knowing 2020 earning could be worst than 2019 but it will be good from 2021 onwards, will you hold or sell is up to individual investor.

I also received OTB message last night on his revised 2020 earning due to the impact of MCO due to corona virus plus about 3 to 4 months delay in completion of power plant. The earning impact of 3 to 4 months delay is more than 60 millions which is substantial and equivalent to about 10s per share. I told him about my estimate of profit from the balance rm 338 million project revenue . My estimate is 23% profit based on past record . My estimate is 78 million which is 9 million higher than his estimate of 69 million. More losses are expected from the local property.segments due to MCO and the after effect. He maintained his estimate of rm 240 million in 2021 which the power is expected to be fully operational. Well , he has the duty to revise the 2020 earning estimate and inform.his subscribers when.situation change just like what IBs are doing.

The formula for calculating IRR is as follows

NPV = Investment + X/(1+R) +X/(1+R)(1+R)+ X/(!+R)(1+R)(1+R)+...
0 = - 1868 + X/( 1+ 0.12)+ X/(1+0.12)(1+0.12) + ....for 25 yrs

0 = - 1868 + 0.89X+ 0.79X + 0.71X + .............+ the 25th 0.05X

where NPV is zero , capital investment is US 1868 million
IRR = 12 % based on Jaks management calculation .
X is the annual cash inflow

Summing up the total number of X for 25 years , I got

7.8 X = US 1868 million or
X = US 239 million

With Jaks owning 30 % , the annual cash flow is RM 301 million using an exchange rate of 4.2 .

Using DK 66 estimation of capacity payment of US 109 million, Jaks 30 % portion is RM 137 million . I deduced that the energy payment is estimated to be ( 301 -137 ) million or 164 million .

Welcome any comment

VIN 3133, thanks for yiur kind words. last month was a terrible month . I decided not to participate in the forum.because stock.prices do not follow FA or even TA anymore.

Probability, to be honest, I m also looking at other more compelling stocks during this uncertainty period with so many other badly beaten stocks. KYY latest article showed that he had sold all his dayang stock.at a loss. With Petronas shutting down some oilfields and with uncertain oil prices , he discouraged buyimg dayang.

Probability, I quoted 43.3 % efficiency from DK 66 article . Even if the energy payment is zero, there is still the quarenteed US 109 million of capacity payment. This payment us translated into eps of 22 sen

Sorry, some correction. The 109 + 42 million are in US dollars. Using exchange rate of 4.35 , the eps is 30 sen for Jaks 30 % instead of 23 sen per share

DK 66, Probability and OTB
I think it is not a fair comparison between Hai Duong power plant which use the latest and more efficient parts and technology with the 30 year old Russian Technology. I prefer to stick.to DK 66 Calculation . The capacity.payment of 109 million is somewhat quaranteed while the Energy payment will range between.zero to 84 million . Zero payment if Hai Duong is not able to meet or just meetimg the targeted or agreed upon.efficiency, then EVN.will just pay the fuel.cost plus plant maintence cost. If Hai Duong can.meet 43.3 % efficiency, then EVN.will.reward Hai Duong with.the estimatef 84 million . If we take the middle , then.energy payment will be 42 million. With a total of 109+42 millions, the eps is 23 sen based on 30% JAKS ownership. Since Hai.Duong is more expensive than.Vinh Tan.because of higher spec, I believe.Hai Duong is able to deliver at 43.3 % efficiency.

MFCB has recovered about 40 % from the lowest closing of 3.20 on 23rd march. The low of Jaks is 0.69 . It should recover at the same rate since both are of the same power plant business with 25 years concessions. Recovery of 40 % for Jaks should price Jaks at 96 sen .

The mfcb prices was depressed by the warrant prices ..Many warrant holders do not have the money to convert or decided not to convert by quickly.sell.off the shares last week or before last week because the last trading days for warrant was 23rd march. When.the prices of warrant was pushed down by many sellers , the mother shares also drop correspondingly . When the warrant stop trading, the mother shares moved up immediately since then.. Total the total increase for the last 3 days is one ringgit or 31 %
of 3.20, closing price on. 23rd march

4444, fyi , I m not losing any money in mfcb .

I am still.holding my.mfcb shares and.converted all my warrants. Will buy more once my.margin.accountbis approved.

US total infected hit more than 14 thousands with 217 deaths. Finally California announced lockdown for its 40 millions residents. Italy total deaths.surpass China .More countries come to their senses and do similar lockdowns as China who was criticised for violating freedom and human rights..Short term pain is better than long term pain.