Even though Hartalega share price is overly inflated IMO, but their management is really good. Their glove output is also much higher than industry stanards owing to much better design and material usage. However, as in many MNCs, when company gets too big, snakes will start to appear. It is unfortunate that they allowed themselves to be caught up. NGC should have completed years ago and yet they just completed it now. Going forward, I wonder if they still maintain the advantage over the rest that keep narrowing year after year.
Insas will more likely buy shares of another struggling company than giving out 5c dividends lor. Holding since 2015, getting a bit used to their pattern to spend money. Now just wait announcement see which company will grab their attention.
Do you truly believe Insas will unlock its value? Hmm... There is nothing really interesting about Insas businesses apart from some interesting holdings in Inari, HoHup, Microlink etc. Microlink has surge quite a lot during the past year.
Insas will continue to dispose Inari slowly to pay dividend and PRS interest. This has been ongoing since I bought the stocks in 2015.
I dont really know why people are still obsessed with Insas QR when it really didnt matters at all. A huge portion of the "fake' profits are investment revaluation. This wont even provide enough liquidity to pay dividends and PRS interest.
1. You're assuming that glove asp will maintain at usd40 in 2023 whereas many are predicting usd25-30. 2. You're assuming that covid is still around and every glove makers would be running at full capacity and sold out all their goods.
For me, I would calculate ASP USD25 with 65% utilisation.
48b x 0.025 x 65% x RM4.15 = RM3.237b revenue
48b x 0.03 x 65% x RM4.14 = RM3.885b revenue
Do you still see Supermax at RM11 now even with 48b capacity? I'm not even assuming the worse yet. Why? Pre covid, even at current capacity, most glove makers are only at 60-70% utilisation. Supermax can double their capacity, but would they be able to sell as much given how many newcomers are going to flood the market with their offerings as well. Price wars is imminent. Things will get ugly very soon.
Uncle missed his opportunity to sell Leon Fuat at the highest. Otherwise this article wont come out.
Anyway, China government has come out and instructed steelmakers not to participate in pricing manipulation. I think China government also caught out by the spike in demand after ordering factories to shut down to reduce pollution. Iron ore has dropped after that. I foresee pricing will go down slowly in the next 6months. It takes a couple of months to boost supply to meet demand.
Uncle is treating like every steel player will enjoy huge profits. In order to enjoy profits like Leon Fuat, you need to have steel stockpile that you accumulated earlier in the year. During that time, steel price hovered between 2800 and 3200. Now the price of these has increased to 4400. If you had a lot of leftovers, then yeah, good profits... however unless steel price starts to trend downwards, you will be stuck importing high price steel from China once your stock depleted.
No wonder they said pen can kill. It is either you are ignorant of how much ASP will drop or you have math problem.
First of all, ASP might (I wont say definitely) drop to pre-covid level. If you google, most agreed that glove price at the highest is 4x pre covid level. $90/4 = $22.5 per 1000 gloves
Now work the math.
If $22.5 , then 1 piece is $0.0225 48b x $0.0225 x RM4.1 = RM4.43b revenue
if $25, then 1 piece is $0.025 48b x $0.025 x RM4.1 = RM4.92b revenue
if $30, then 1 piece is $ 0.03 48b x $0.03 x RM4.1 = RM5.9b revenue
Would you mind to share how much profit margin Supermax will get? 80%?
For comparison, lets just say for FY2021, average price for Supermax sales is $70 for the whole year.
if $70, then 1 piece is $0.07 26b (current capacity) x $0.07 x RM4.1 = RM7.46b revenue (kinda close to the estimate)
Even with double the capacity, Supermax would not earn anywhere close to RM4b even if the ASP is $30. That is why their shares is being dump.
You havent even taking into consideration how much excess capacity once covid is over. Dont forget pre-covid, utilisation rate for most glove makers are just around 60-70%. Lets just say Supermax is really popular for whatever reason and they managed to retain 70% utilisation rate of 48b capacity. Whatever result I posted x 70% would be a figure much lower than RM4b revenue. So tell me how do you expect RM4b profit for FY2022?
Steel price is rising steadily (hyper inflation since already up more than 50% since November) every week thus I'm not surprised that they record good profits. However it is also a double edge sword. Price up means you also had to replenish stock at higher cost which would also hurt earnings in future and more so if it suddenly took a turn to the south.
This is elevator??? It is roller coaster... at first tarik you uphill until the highest point, then free rolling down up down up down up 360 turn... and when it stopped, you either live to tell the tale or vomit until wanna die.
Insas used all the cash to SBB + dividends... where got cash left. Asset is rich and this is how Datuk Thong plan to play this game. RPS -> Free warrants. RPS get 4% and warrants gets millions. If you dont want to play his game, then you should sell.
This is why I applaud TG for being upfront about ASP. In their HKEX prospectus, TG detailed possibly ASP returning to normal somewhere around 2022 (not sure Q1, Q2, Q3 or Q4) but it is going to happen sooner or later.
This ASP graph is closer to real time than those numbers that Uncle Koon brought up. No matter how I calculate, I still cant get USD120 ASP that has been brought up many many weeks/months ago. The numbers dont lie... you can easily get capacity numbers and times ASP to get each glove makers revenue.
But at Rm40, Supermax shares would be valued at only 25x FY21 forward PE. Not too unreasonable if all the stars align.
Wow... even though you knew the ASP would tank in near future, you would still insist on this statement. Not that I hate any of those glove counters, but some of you guys are just as toxic as the JPM analyst. Pot calling kettle black.