can't describe how happy I am seeing Petron rising back today :))

pairsblue, petron is nothing different from Shell, except that they also own petrol stations and retail businesses, which bode well at low crude oil price. I sold half of Petron to buy Shell sometime back after yuefei clarify in this board that there is a Petron's 40 days shutdown last quarter. Though, the Petron management seems to be quite bullish with their coming results, don't know why.

pairsblue, surely, Shell should be in the green for year 2015. Though, we shall not be too excited about earnings and know the difference between Shell and Petron when investing, knowing well that Shell benefits most when there is a slow recovery of crude oil price and a recovery of Ringgit Malaysia (Shell has USD debt while Petron has RM debt)

And I tend to disagree with you, now is the best time to stock more crude. In fact, I would be extremely happy if Shell adds more oil tanks to store additional crude oil purchased with the profits made. Shell should be able to keep borrowing in USD, and should choose borrow the same amount of USD until RM recovers to less than 3.80 per USD...

During 2nd quarter, brent crude rose from 55.11 to 63.59, which is why the record profit (you would have to dig the quarter report to learn the inventory 'appreciation'). During the 4th quarter to be reported next month, brent crude dropped from 48.37 to 37.28. With a need to write down almost USD 11 per barrel, Shell profit will be hard to excel. I would be happy to see 60 - 150 millions already. Just hope it will not be in the negative territory, and sincerely hope that crude oil will gradually rise to around 40 by end of March. Shell's profit in 1Q2016 will then match 4Q2015, otherwise, there should further impairment on inventory... There is high likelihood that current share price is reflecting current sharp downturn of crude oil price. Long term going forward should be good though...

some mistake, corrected and shown in above

Petron is slightly different from Shell because half of its inventory is under trade and receivable category, and thus requires less impairment when crude oil price falls. That will also mean, when crude oil price is on a slow upturn, Petron will benefit less than Shell.

aiyo, VT is a philanthropist lah, donating to anyone but us, shareholders...

Alas, China dropped causing the last minute sell down lah...

Hng33, welcome back!

Money88, why not throwing it to 0.99 better, as a gift to Rozali's son being appointed a director?

Biggest joke in the history of bursa, trading at half it's cash value?

babu, I have been holding this stock since mid of 2014 and added most early 2015. If you are referring to buy on margin as life support, well, count me in.

Goodstock, still holding...

fainted, luckily didn't buy any after last purchased at 1.48. How's that possible when net cash per share is at least 2.70 and yet price keeps falling?!?

When no news, petron kept rising, after news, bing bing pong pong down. Yet, when one read the news, hardly anyone can appreciate why it's good time to hold refiners now. Instead, news focus on petron and shell unlikely to deal...

There are only 270 million shares, the largest shareholder already control 72 or 75 %. There will definitely be some holding for long term investment. Assuming 20% freely floating shares, they're only 54 million shares. If someone want to goreng up or down the shares, think not too difficult to some...

yuefei01, WB, I see... anyway, Shell's inventory has two parts, crude oil and finished products, can't remember the percentage, and lazy to dig further. Even if finished products are not falling as much, it's still falling, particularly petrol and diesel. In any case, I believe Shell should still enjoy 60 - 150 millions last quarter (guess I was over bullish to hope for 300 millions when I first switched to Shell.) PetronM has a better financial strength to pay dividend than Shell though. Anyway, shall know in a month's time.

A better valuation should be based on Tapis oil, but its easier to source price movement using Bloomberg which only offer Brent and WTI for free. An additional note though, PetronM and Shell could possibly protect their inventory worth with financial derivatives, but I can't find the details in their quarter reports.

yuefei01, if I were not wrong, Shell's inventory should be relatively flat or slightly cut as suggested by PETRONAS DAGANG in terms of volume. On Sep 30, Brent crude is at 48.37 and On Dec 31, Brent crude is at 37.28, a roughly 23% drop. Shell has an inventory of 947 millions, thus a guesstimate of RM 217 millions of inventory impairment is possible. This is one of the reason I bought PetronM when deciding to invest in refiners cause PetronM's inventory is roughly half of Shell with the rest as trade receivable (I suppose its sold to gas stations already.) Though, after you pointed out that PetronM was also going through a revamp and closed down for 40 days that I decide to switch half my PetronM into Shell...

don't know, that's why I asked...

Quite frankly, have difficulty understanding why Shell needs to sell its refinery? Currently, refinery is the one making the most, and this golden period has months to go before music stops. Wonder if its Shell Malaysia selling Shell Refinery?!? That would make more sense!

accumulation phase?

quite frankly, could never understand 'anal-yst', while pointing out Shell made a lost in Jul '15 - Sep '15 quarter, can't they point out the reason being Shell stopped its refinery operation for 44 days?!?

If not seeing EPF kacau kacau, would have sold more PETRON to buy SHELL already. Feel so bad seeing this surge while knowing I could have bought more earlier. Sigh!

Am I too greedy to hope for 9 target price?

Good news, at least to me, generating another 93 million of cash!

Ivan, thanks... Sorry to hear about your losses in bjcorp, similar here. Hope price will get better this year once total debt is reduced

attended a Maybank seminar on Saturday, was told target price for Petron is 6.80 and 8.12. Anybody else attended it can verify for me? Thanks...

humbleisland, I also bought at around 50, think average 0.49 2 years back. Then forced to sell at 0.40 to add Puncak last year. I have only bought back after receiving my Puncak special dividend lately. Think and hope BJCorp can be a jackpot play, but have been no luck lately, haha... only consolation is the yearly 0.01 dividend until jackpot hit

爱丽丝, hope I am not misleading you here, cause my investment in Puncak is terrible, and my investment with BJCorp is also not doing well. My only luck recently is only PetronM.

humbleisland, call warrants has nothing to do with BJCorp shareholders or BJCorp itself, it's only a business deal between call warrant holders and call warrant issuers, usually investment banks.

I guess, when issuing call warrants, investment banks will have to buy certain percentage of BJCorp (or any other companies) to protect themselves when BJCorp share rises above their expectation. Close to the end of expiry date, investment banks may to have to sell these shares should share price rises too much, at which these investment banks may incur losses. Guess that's why some opined that BJCorp's price will move up once BJCorp-CY matures. I have no earlier working experience in financial industry and I do not have a good idea of how it works. My sharing here is more from my knowledge through books...

BJCorp has a few core businesses: (1) property development through BJCorp and BJLand (2) Cosway through BJCorp (3) property investments through BJCorp and other subsidiaries/associates (4) number forecasting through BJToto (5) car dealerships and assembly through BJAuto and BJToto (5) franchised shops (6) investments in listed companies. Of these, I would presume property investment and development have the highest percentage in its balance sheet. Though, BJCorp property development in China and Jeju Island through BJLand have been in trouble for a while, which I believe contributed to most of the recent debt increases (non RM-debt has also contributed because depreciated RM) With recent announcement of China property development to be taken over by another Chinese company, maybe future prospect could be brighter. A second issue has been the privatization of Hong Kong Cosway. Think BJCorp has paid too much and recent years have not been good to Cosway's business. Read from recent annual report that Cosway business is gradually improved, hopefully things can be brighter this and next year.

I think BJCorp share price is not performing due to one of the two reasons (1) BJCorp businesses are not so good, from number forecasting to property development (2) VT has yet to need money from us the small shareholders. (1) could see brighter future this year from recent businesses and land disposals, completion of Menara Bangkok Bank, Ritz-Carlton Residences and Japan property development. I hope not to see (2), otherwise I will sell when its goreng up

Ivan, CY is just call warrant number Y, nothing to be concerned. More important thing is the expiry date and valuation details of the warrant. You have to check the bursa for details though...

Err... I bought some at .355, hope it's on it's way to CNY rally

haha... same feeling...

share price rises because Rozali want his son to be director?!?

titus, I actually still in a loss position in Puncak, and also the largest position in my portfolio... can only hope Rozali rewarding me for my persistence :)

bought Shell today after selling my Petron this morning to diversify my risk in refiners... hopefully Shell made 300 millions when quarter result is announced next month :)

well, I sold half my Petron this morning to buy Shell, and loss from the sale, despite a more relaxed feeling after diversifying but still feel the losses... guess humans are greedy!

hng33, you own insas?

insas mostly selling inari lately, not buying lah!

after listening to yuefei01's comment, I sold half of my Petron at 5.72 to buy the same amount of Shell to spread out my risk of refiners...

I bought some at 1.48 after selling some of my Petron, hopefully this is a sign of a rally...

kelvin Chan, is there anywhere to learn the 3 days shutdown? Thanks.

yuefei01, thank you! You are right, I almost miss an important piece of information.

kevin chan, every refiner keeps stock! And their stocks should adopt FIFO accounting practice (first in, first out), i.e., old stocks are sold first. Refiners with retail presence benefits from recent managed float gasoline and diesel pricing mechanism, i.e., price for this month is based on last month's price. When crude price is on a downtrend, PETRON is benefitting from selling stock at a marked up price, so long crude price is on a downtrend. If crude oil price is on a uptrend, the benefit from managed float price mechanism will be gone. Though, since crude oil is still expected to be on a downtrend or flat at best, this should bode well for refiners, especially when the refiners are enjoying high refining margin, see above news I posted earlier... just sharing what I have learnt, do correct me if I were wrong, thanks!

Guess that's why PetronM is making so much money lately!

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/saudi-aramco-raises-asia-oil-pricing-amid-higher-refiner-profits?type=Corporate

Saudi Aramco raises Asia oil pricing amid higher refiner profits

DUBAI (Jan 5): Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, raised pricing for all February oil sales to Asia amid higher refining margins in the region. It kept levels unchanged for most grades sold to the U.S.

State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. increased its official selling price for Arab Light crude sold to Asia by 60 cents a barrel to 80 cents below the regional benchmark, it said in an e-mailed statement. The company, known as Saudi Aramco, was expected to narrow the discount for Arab Light to Asia by 55 cents a barrel, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of six refiners and traders.

The profit that refiners in Asia make from turning crude into gasoline and diesel rose from US$15.93 per barrel on Nov 30 to US$17.66 per barrel on Dec 31, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in OPEC, won’t limit production and will seek to supply any demand from the market, Ali Al-Naimi, the country’s oil minister, said Dec 30 on state television. The country pumped 10.25 million barrels daily last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided last month, to set aside any formal target for production. The group has exceeded its previous target of 30 million barrels a day since May 2014, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Supply Glut

Brent crude tumbled 35% last year, as Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC chose to protect their market share instead of cutting output in an effort to support prices. Brent dropped from more than US$100 a barrel in July 2014, to trade at about US$37 on Tuesday, amid a global glut.

Saudi Aramco reduced the premium for Arab Extra Light crude to the U.S. by 50 cents a barrel to US$2.35 a barrel more than the benchmark, and kept price differentials for all other grades to the U.S. unchanged from January.

The company widened discounts for sales of all grades of crude to Northwest Europe for February, while keeping discounts for all crudes but Arab Light unchanged for buyers in the Mediterranean region.

Middle Eastern producers are competing increasingly with cargoes from Latin America, North Africa and Russia for buyers in Asia, its largest market. Producers in the Persian Gulf region sell mostly under long-term contracts to refiners. Most of the Gulf’s state oil companies price their crude at a premium or discount to a benchmark. For Asia, the benchmark is the average of Oman and Dubai oil grades.

At this rate, we are going to see 7.50 Friday...

Sigh! Hopefully they will keep at this level, will add some once I sell my BJCorp or PetronM

Err... I m happy with 8 - 12 already :-)

Cash per share shouldn't be much different from 2.70 +/- 0.10, unless there is an unknown payment or huge losses incurred that I am not aware of (impairment is not a cash outflow and has 0 impact on net cash.) I am upset that none of the sell-side analyst from major banks have dedicated sufficient analysis to offer public the right numbers, while certain people enjoy 'offering' figures without sufficient background check.

HH2004227, thanks. Just hope I have not lead you to Holland also.

If so, that would be my best performing stock in shortest time frame...

Probably after quarter report in February...