rauschenberg

rauschenberg | Joined since 2021-02-08

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2021-02-09 18:21 | Report Abuse

My mild concern is the government intention to split the company:

"Tenaga is splitting itself into three units, including one to handle retail electricity, and planning a debt sale for the first time since 2017 to gear up for new competition."

Source:
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/malaysia-trying-to-break-up-big-firms-without-hurting-stocks

Stock

2021-02-09 18:09 | Report Abuse

@TreeTopView thank you for the analysis as well. My estimations were very much along yours and glad there's a bit of common sense and general interest into educated and constructive dialogue. Appreciate it very much.
Best,
Rauschenberg

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2021-02-08 21:25 | Report Abuse

Hey TreeTopView

Indeed it would be a really interesting conversation.
Stuck in SG for the time being. Not complaining though. :)

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2021-02-08 13:17 | Report Abuse

Hey @TreeTopView,

You're absolutely right. Looking at the P/E over the last few years, the stock may be under evaluated although i don't believe it is by a lot. Should have mentioned that in my post. What would you consider a base point and how would you come up with that evaluation?
Thank you,
Rauschenberg

Stock

2021-02-08 11:39 | Report Abuse

"Know what you're buying"
Tenaga's share price is intrinsically connected to the Malaysian economy. Look at the Malaysian index and how closely it is followed by the stock's price. Now that being said, these are the global opinions on economic growth:

Capital Economics, a consultancy, said the Southeast Asian country will grow 7% this year — down from its previous projection of 10%;
Singaporean bank UOB downgraded its forecast from 6% to 5%;
Japanese bank Mizuho lowered its projection from 6.7% to 5.9%;
Fitch Solutions revised down its forecast from 11.5% to 10%.
Source:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/14/economists-cut-forecasts-for-malaysias-2021-growth-on-covid-lockdown.html

The consensus is around 6.5%. In MY book, that is by how much the stock price will rise to.
In regards to green energy trends, Tenaga is starting to get heavily invested in that as well:

"In June 2020, Director of Coara Marang, Susan Hemming, signed a 21-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the country's largest electricity utility, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB)."

Source:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/116mwp-coara-marang-solar-farm-010000903.html

In MY opinion, a 6% plus a 4% DY in a monopolistic business, renewable/green energy oriented (it won't happen overnight), backed by the government (too big to fail), with improving democratic and corruption track records, is not a bad deal.
But that's just me, and i am german :).