We share information here with the most important intention is to make money.
We are not here to attack or fight with anyone.
No wrong or no right.
No I am smarter than you.

Bill Gate agreed that he is not so smart in school, those smart classmates are very good in study and becomes engineers to work for him.

satan118,

You just post it if you think that you are right.
Please come out the figures again.
I like you, you are a hardworking person.
Good work.

satan118,
I am not an accountant, I do not know whether Reinvestment Allowance of 495M can be allowed to be used to offset the earning.
You need insider information to confirm it.
I just make my assumption.
I may be wrong.

Post removed.Why?

satan 118,

I think there is no any impairment write off. I think Reinvestment Allowance of 495M is to cover all losses if any incurred during shutdown.
Look at the previous report, when there is a shutdown, it is always a loss incurred.
To be safe, assume no impairment write off.
We had discussed this matter with our team, we feel that there is no impairment write off.

Posted by Tung Kwang Yii > Feb 23, 2018 11:32 PM | Report Abuse

Next week may hit rm 18

Ans : I say if only ... may not be true.
If the price is limit up after QR announcement, the price of Hengyuan should be > 20.00 easily.

Let us hope the price is limit up after QR announcement.

satan 118,

2) forex gain rm152m refer to davidslim article.

Ans : The banks and BNM just approved the loan in January 2018, you need to draw down the loan to repay the RM 1.2 billion loan borrowed in USD. This will take time to draw down, hence you cannot take fully quantity.
Assume the draw down is at the end of February (we do not know), the forex gain is (152/12*10) = 126 million.

3)get to know HY not run at full capacity. Hy mgmt will definately refine more stock to keep right? So they might run production at full capacity for certain period b4 the shutdown. So, why not use the 2016 figure as referrence leh. Coz the 2 months production bbl amount has been done b4 the shut down mah.

Ans : Euro 3 cannot be used after January 2019.
The present production is Euro 3, do you think the Hengyuan management wants to take high risk to keep very high inventory of Euro 3 which will be obsoleted after January 2019.
To be safe, I suggest you should consider to take off 2 months production. Usage should be (40M/12*10).

You should also report full tax for 2018 earning.

This method of calculation is more conservative and I think it should be more accurate.
I am on the same boat with you, I also want Hengyuan to report higher profit.
When we do calculation, we should give provision to avoid high chance of mistake.
Strictly my opinion only.

EPS of Hengyuan for 2017 is 3.70.
Present price of Hengyuan is 15.08
PER now is 4.07

If you ask any reader in I3 the below questions.
Is the price of Hengyuan undervalued ?
Is the price of Hengyuan cheap ?

I am very sure, the answer is undervalued and cheap respectively.

There is an ego here, someone said it is not cheap.

To all men in the street, the common answer is undervalued and cheap.

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 22, 2018 12:57 PM | Report Abuse
Good QR results. Dont miss the boat.

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 22, 2018 01:15 PM | Report Abuse
HY Going to limit up after the QR announcement

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 22, 2018 01:21 PM | Report Abuse
Just buy on weakness. QR will be out any time from this evening onwards.

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 02:42 PM | Report Abuse
BIG funds coming in before close of the day

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 03:02 PM | Report Abuse
We are coming in a BIG way. Stay tune...

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 03:10 PM | Report Abuse
Dump now means you are dumping a pot of gold into the sea. But its up to you...we are still collecting at RM 15

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 03:22 PM | Report Abuse

Who are you? We buy into wharever stock that is undervalued. Whatever people throw at us we will buy up at 15

Comment
Please read all postings by Fund_Manager.
Suggest all readers to read it very carefully.
Hengyuan is going to limit up after the quarter result announcement.
His fund is collecting at RM 15 today.
Result will show in next few days.
Please be patience to wait for good news.

Most of investors used EPS and PER to find the intrinsic value of the stock.
This is the basic rule.

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 22, 2018 01:15 PM | Report Abuse
HY Going to limit up after the QR announcement

Posted by Icon8818 > Feb 23, 2018 07:05 PM | Report Abuse

Monday should gap up!

I dont know TA, but looking at today's trading and last 2 days there is super strong accumulation.

All tell-tale signs of an explosive qtr results!

Comments :
I believe Fund_Manager's statement that the price of Hengyuan going to limit up after the QR announcement.
His fund is buying all 15.00 trades today.

Posted by yus7888 > Feb 23, 2018 04:25 PM | Report Abuse

No further expansion, No further increase in Production, No further acquiring, All the Fundamental exactly the same as Shell Malaysia

Hengyuan use Chinese technology to convert Euro 3 to 4 at a minimum cost.
Chinese management is more efficient and cost effective.
Former Shell management purchased crude oil at high price and past it to Shell Malaysia.
Chinese management produced record profit in 2017.

I quote Robert Kuok's statement here again.
"Good Chinese business management is second to none; the very best of Chinese Management is without compare. I haven't seen others come near to it in my 70-year career" Robert Kuok

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 04:05 PM | Report Abuse

Some sohai question my integrity, so I will not post my fund directions in future. Bye.

Comments :
Please do not be so sensitive, we believe you in good faith.
No one questions your integrity, we are all on the same boat with you.
We wish your dream will come through.
We encourage more readers here to support you.
We also want the price of Hengyuan to limit up when QR announced.
Please continue to post your fund directions in future.
We appreciate it.

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 22, 2018 12:57 PM | Report Abuse
Good QR results. Dont miss the boat.

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 22, 2018 01:15 PM | Report Abuse
HY Going to limit up after the QR announcement

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 22, 2018 01:21 PM | Report Abuse
Just buy on weakness. QR will be out any time from this evening onwards.

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 02:42 PM | Report Abuse
BIG funds coming in before close of the day

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 03:02 PM | Report Abuse
We are coming in a BIG way. Stay tune...

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 03:10 PM | Report Abuse
Dump now means you are dumping a pot of gold into the sea. But its up to you...we are still collecting at RM 15

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 03:22 PM | Report Abuse

Who are you? We buy into wharever stock that is undervalued. Whatever people throw at us we will buy up at 15

Comment
Please read all postings by Fund_Manager.
Suggest all readers to read it very carefully.
Hengyuan Going to limit up after the quarter result announcement.
Believe it you buy now.
Ignore it if you do not believe.
Result will show in next few days.
No point arguing now, wait for result.

Posted by Fund_Manager > Feb 23, 2018 03:10 PM | Report Abuse

Dump now means you are dumping a pot of gold into the sea. But its up to you...we are still collecting at RM 15

You must be reading my posting and purposely block the price at 15.10.

Once 15.10 is cleared, the price will skyrocket up the roof.
I wish the price can close above 15.10 today.
Please do not disappoint me lah. Hengyuan !!

Posted by LuoLi > Feb 23, 2018 10:30 AM | Report Abuse

什么秦梦瑶，以为这是玄幻小说啊？

Posted by kentwoon > Feb 23, 2018 10:41 AM | Report Abuse

姐姐比luoli 好很多。

Posted by kentwoon > Feb 23, 2018 10:42 AM | Report Abuse

Luoli 臭三八

Comment :
秦梦瑶 is a graduate from One of China famous universities.
Moreover, I saw her picture, she is also a beautiful Chinese girl.

Posted by 秦梦瑶 > Feb 23, 2018 10:10 AM | Report Abuse

:-)

秦梦瑶,
Please do not wait further, once 15.10 is cleared, the price will skyrocket up the roof.
Do not let procrastination stop you from making your million.
Just do it now.

FutureEyes did a good job to predict the earning very accurately for both Hengyuan and Petronm.

It is not fair to attack him.
I have my fullest respect on him.

Petronm is still undervalued, there is still a growth in 2017.

I agreed Hengyuan is better than Petronm based on facts and figures especially EPS and PER.

How many stock in KLSE has a PER < 5, net profit > 1 billion RM and EPS > 3.50.
Please quote one and compare.

Posted by GG_Liang > Feb 14, 2018 12:14 PM | Report Abuse

You see. Your idol otb appeared on masteel page because it went up. Lol

OTB recommended Masteel when the price is about 0.41.
All his followers are laughing all the way to the bank.
OTB made a few of us a millionaire in 2017.
Do you help any reader here to be a millionaire ?
You only help readers here to spread bad news.

Posted by GG_Liang > Feb 9, 2018 09:43 AM | Report Abuse

As i said many times. Not saying otb is not good at stock picking. But he picked many stocks. When 1 of his picks went up a lot. He would appear on that particular page and claimed the credits . When his other picks went down. He just stayed quiet and acted as if he never recommended them. This is how the illusion of he rarely lost is created. Im just pointing out the truth. His blind followers would always attack me. Im not saying he's bad. But you guys need to see the clear picture.

You are talking nonsense here.
Please show us your records before you bad mouth OTB.
You do not have any record to show that you are better than OTB.
You are only good to bad mouth OTB.
You are also very good to talk bad about Hengyuan.
OTB is not only good to select 1 stock, many, many good stocks to help readers here to make a lot of money ... I repeat ... a lot of money.

VS, Gkent, Hengyuan, Latitud, Hevea, Liihen, Kesm, Gamuda-WE and many ... many profitable stocks.

I think FutureEyes is very good, please go back to read his write-up.
I respect him a lot because his write-up is very accurate.

Post removed.Why?

Posted by traderman > Feb 22, 2018 12:43 PM | Report Abuse

that's why need beware those hengyuan fan boy. 3.8 and 3.6 got different or not? then I borrow 3.8k from you can I pay you back 3.6k only?

Even there is a small difference, we come out with facts and figures.
We did not say others are wrong.
We also did not shout the price of Hengyuan will drop to 10,6,5 or 2 everyday.
That is the big difference between promoters and you all.

satan118,

Inpairment write back >RM470M
Me : We do not agree with this write back, it is offset by 495M Reinvestment Allowance.

Forex gain on RM1.7B loan RM150M
Me : There is a forex gain, but not so much as 150M.

40m bbls(appx)×7.84Usd= USD313M (×3.90)
Me : Do not agree with 40M because of 2.5 month shutdown. When there is a shutdown, no usage of crude oil.

Me : 2018 profit has to be subjected to 25% tax.

Others are quite close to our estimate.
I just express our opinion only. Our opinion may not be correct too.
Just sharing information only.

We come to I3 with the most important intention is to make money.
We come here to check for useful information to help us to make important decision to buy or to sell.
If you promote Hengyuan, please justify your points and reasons to buy.
Likewise, If you post negative views, please justify your points and reasons to sell.

I hope both sides will stop arguing, let us make money together.

satan118

I want to learn from you, please enlighten me on the followings :-

i)Inpairment write back >RM470M
How you get this figure ?
Reinvestment Allowance of 495M is to cover the loss in the shutdown. You have counted twice on impairment write back.

40m bbls(appx)×7.84Usd= USD313M (×3.90)
= RM1223M
Please note that there are 2 months shutdown in Q3 2018, hence there is no production for 2 months.
Is 40m bbls correct ?
Do you account for 2 months shutdown ?

(B4 TAX & REINVESTMENT ALLOWANCE 495M)
I am quite sure that there is 25% tax in all 4 quarters of 2018.
Reinvestment Allowance of 495M is to reduce the loss in Q3 2018 due to shutdown.

Please work out all figures again.
I wish to learn from you.

Posted by dragonslayer > Feb 21, 2018 10:04 AM | Report Abuse

Aiyo orang kayaleslie..cakap save billion upgrading...why get loan in billion leh...bring back to cina parent company to spend kah...aiyoyo...kikiki

Comment
According to David Lim's report, swapping the old loan in USD to new loan guaranteed by 3 banks will help Hengyuan to save RM 152 million.

Get your facts right before you talk. Do not be like others simply shouting the price of Hengyuan will drop to 6,5 or 2.
Do you see any difference between you and them if you do not talk with facts ?

I quote Robert Kuok's statement here again.
"Good Chinese business management is second to none; the very best of Chinese Management is without compare. I haven't seen others come near to it in my 70-year career" Robert Kuok

Posted by itch > Feb 20, 2018 11:38 PM | Report Abuse

Chinaman will deliver all the way to blue chip status soon.

"Good Chinese business management is second to none; the very best of Chinese Management is without compare. I haven't seen others come near to it in my 70-year career" Robert Kuok

It is the best article I had read, good work by itch.

Look at Geely management, from no where, is the second largest car maker in China.

I was told that the Chinese management in Hengyuan is far better than former Shell management. Hence record profit was made in 2017.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/oil-refiners-face-rising-risk-tr...

While Moody's expect global oil demand demand to continue growing through 2040, "demand in the OECD will peak much sooner". It also sees global oil incumbency — particularly as fuel for heavy-duty vehicles — to continue to generate demand growth through “at least 2030”, due to technological challenges to electrify heavy-duty engines.

2040 is too far away, many of us will disappear from this world.
Please do not write something to create unnecessary fear to all readers here.
Stock price in stock market cannot reflect event in 2040.
Please use common sense to assess yourself.

Jelas Ulung,

You are a honest person. I always like to read your posting.
You talk without fear or favour.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/oil-refiners-face-rising-risk-transition-towards-carbonfree-world-%E2%80%94-moodys

While Moody's expect global oil demand demand to continue growing through 2040, "demand in the OECD will peak much sooner". It also sees global oil incumbency — particularly as fuel for heavy-duty vehicles — to continue to generate demand growth through “at least 2030”, due to technological challenges to electrify heavy-duty engines.

2040 is too far away, many of us will disappear from this world.
Please do not write something to create unnecessary fear to all readers here.
Stock price in stock market cannot reflect event in 2040.
Please use common sense to assess yourself.

Posted by Kingchek Hong > Feb 20, 2018 11:54 AM | Report Abuse

KYY doesn't make the market, he can come and go. He made his money, he went. This is a case of " I come, I see, I go"
It is Hengyuan strong fundamentals that matter most.

Posted by stockraider > Feb 20, 2018 12:04 AM | Report Abuse

PLEASE DON GET CON BY LISTENING KYY LOH....!!

IT IS ALREADY PROVEN....IT IS BAD TO FOLLOW HIM LOH....!!

Posted by pjflower > Feb 20, 2018 12:02 AM | Report Abuse

nevertheless, pls respect KYY as we too wish to gain respect from others.

Comment
Please be fair to everyone, everyone can buy or sell share. It is his money. KYY also can sell share, who care whether he sells or buy. It is his right to express his opinion. He can sell quietly, if he informed people in I3, he is not so smart.

Did stockraider sell his shares when the price of Hengyuan dropped from 19.20 to 11.32 ?
Ans : Yes.
Please tell me what is the difference.

No point attack any seller, it is his right.

Posted by Ramada > Feb 19, 2018 12:17 PM | Report Abuse

Shut down NOT mean they r stop selling products. They have enough refinery oil in their inventory. Please check David's analysis.

I think shutdown will affect Q3 2018 result.
Please note that RM 495 million reinvestment allowance will cover back some losses.
Hence 2018 net profit will still be good.
Please tell me any other stock in KLSE can make EPS of 2.50 per year.

There is a benchmark in refinery stock.
PER of refinery in Spore is 15.
PER of Hengyuan for 2017 is 3.8 assuming the EPS is 3.70 at the price of 14.00
Forward PER of Hengyuan for 2018 is 5.68 assuming the EPS is 2.50 at the price of 14.00

All refineries have to do maintenance once in every 3 years.
Shutdown is part and parcel of this type of industry.
Not a fair comparison if you view the stock on a year basis.
Should view the stock on 3 years basis to calculate the average EPS.

I have nothing much to do during CNY, I just put in some effort to look into US stock market and HK stock market.

I found that most of the stocks listed in US and HK, the price is no longer cheap. Any stock with PER < 10 is quite difficult to find.
This is the scenario in a very bullish stock market.

KLSE is not bullish at all for the last 3 years.
It started to be bullish at the end of 2017.
Unfortunately there is a big correction in January 2018, the price of most of the stock dropped back in February 2018.

When KLSE is very bullish like HK or US stock market, I am very sure you cannot find any stock with PER < 10.

The present PER for Hengyuan is 3.5, many people are not responsible to shout sell and tell readers here the price of Hengyuan will drop to 6,5 or 2. This type of price is not a fair price if you do your homework well.

Swapping Hengyuan to buy Jaks is not a smart move, you are changing a diamond ring to a silver ring. Think hard before you swap.

The price can stay above 13.52 for today is good enough.
Do not move up north too fast, I still want to buy on breakout.

Commerce Department suggests Trump impose steep tariffs or quotas on foreign steel and aluminum — sources
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/commerce-department-suggests-trump-imp...

No firm decision on this matter. Trump may not agree.
Decision will be made in April 2018 and it takes time to implement it if Trump agreed.
Please do not impose fear unnecessary.

Post removed.Why?

Posted by siewnam > Feb 18, 2018 07:20 PM | Report Abuse

resume paying tax will minus 25% from 2018 earning, 2 months shutdown could caused a quarter loss, n with lower crackspread, estimate eps for 2018 is about rm 1.50.

I believe you did not factor in RM 495 million reinvestment allowance. If you factor in, the EPS for 2018 should be around 2.50.
Please check again.

I have nothing much to do during CNY, I just put in some effort to look into US stock market and HK stock market.

I found that most of the stocks listed in US and HK, the price is no longer cheap. Any stock with PER < 10 is quite difficult to find.
This is the scenario in a very bullish stock market.

KLSE is not bullish at all for the last 3 years.
It started to be bullish at the end of 2017.
Unfortunately there is a big correction in January 2018, the price of most of the stock dropped back in February 2018.

When KLSE is very bullish like HK or US stock market, I am very sure you cannot find any stock with PER < 10.

The present PER for Hengyuan is 3.5, many people are not responsible to shout sell and tell readers here the price of Hengyuan will drop to 6,5 or 2. This type of price is not a fair price if you do your homework well.

Swapping Hengyuan to buy Jaks is not a smart move, you are changing a diamond ring to a silver ring. Think hard before you swap.

A good article. Good job.

STC1136,

You are very good, congra on your good prediction.
Good work

stockraider,

I remember I saw you post an article saying Hengyuan is building a new plant beside the old plant to produce 126KB capacity.

Is it true ?
Please enlighten me.

Ssteel result is good, likewise Masteel.
CNY rally is on for steel bar stocks.

Look at the result of CSCStel, the Q4 2017 result of Masteel should be good.
The share prices of Annjoo and Lionind are also moving north, all good news are in place now.
Waiting to collect CNY ang pow from Masteel.

Posted by pitbull > Feb 13, 2018 11:33 AM | Report Abuse

DIVIDEND COMING LOH..??
WOW
RM 0.80 ?

If Hengyuan gives out dividend of RM 0.80, the share price of Hengyuan will skyrocket up the roof.
Hope your information is reliable and it is good news to us.

Posted by laulau > Feb 13, 2018 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

The next Qtr's results should be out by 28 February? 1 day before Chap Goh Meh...

Since you had done many analysis, is Q4 2017 very good ?
Please advise.

I think Q4 2017 result will be very good.
I hope the management of Hengyuan will declare a dividend of RM 0.50 in view of good 2017 earning.
If RM 0.50 dividend is declared, many institutional funds will be interested to invest in Hengyuan. The share price of Hengyuan will rocket up the roof like Nestle.
I pray the management of Hengyuan will consider this important tips to improve the share price.
The ball is in the management of Hengyuan's court now.

I was told the management of Hengyuan has invited all institutional fund managers and analysts to attend briefing while announcing Q4 2017 result.
This is a good step forward to improve the share price.

Please do not waste your time with them.

The price of Hengyuan will not drop to 10, 6, 5 or 2.
So far they did not do any homework or provide any calculation to show the target price of 10, 6, 5 or 2.

Shouting sell !! Drop !! 10 !! 6 !! 5 !! 2 !! will not make the price of Hengyuan drops.

Why need to reply to them ? Let them shout until no saliva.
I do not even want to read their write up because it is a waste of time.
Please be focus to win big on Hengyuan.