Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2020-06-05 15:28 | Report Abuse

You are right. I have different valuation methods but it comes to same conclusion. However the market reality now is indifferent for all 6 of them.

As I repeated saying, at the end of the tide, Harta with new innovated AMG™ will still eat away market shares of the other 5 and the rest of the producers of the world. That's why I think Harta is the safest. AMG™ have huge potential in other applications: lab, poultry, fisheries, etc.

While those directors/owners aggressively selling shares ones are the most risky one.

Ideally hold 30/40% Harta, 30/40% Topglove, 5-15% the rest.

Posted by lching > 2020-06-05 15:35 | Report Abuse

well written felicity

Posted by calvintaneng > 2020-06-05 18:14 | Report Abuse

DONTTALKKOKK KwTAN is talking ???

Is KW TAN & FELICITY SAME PERSON?

Yes. This is a sensible post.

But in a bull run like now there is an '"unknown"

NO ONE KNOWS EXACTLY WHEN COVID 19 WILL BE OVER

THERE IS ALSO A PANIC INTO OVER STOCKING OF MEDICAL GLOVES

NOT ALL EXAM GLOVES ARE BEIND USED. MANY COULD BE JUST PURCHASED AS AN UNKNOWN EMERGENCY

AND THEY MIGHT OVERDO IT

AFTER ALL LIVES OF TOP SURGEONS, DOCTORS AND NURSES ARE WORTH FAR MORE THAN THE EXPENSE TO STORE MEDICAL GLOVES

PLUS RIGHT NOW IN SINGAPORE RETAILERS ALSO WEAR GLOVES AND MEDICAL GLOVES WHILE SELLING STUFF

ONE GUY CHANGED 5 PAIRS A DAY JUST TO PLAY SAFE

SO THE PANIC, FEAR & UNKNOWN WILL CREATE A DEMAND NEVER SEEN BEFORE

NOTE: OVERSTOCKING NOT IN GLOVES ALONE

ONE AUSSIE FAMILY STOCKED 12 YEARS OF TOILET PAPER

SEE https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2020/03/10/coronavirus-australia-family-buys-12-year-supply-toilet-paper/4985534002/

GLOVES ARE NECESSITIES MORE THAN TOILET PAPER

WILL SOME STOCK UP TO 5 OR 10 YEARS WORTH?

Posted by Fabie > 2020-06-05 18:34 | Report Abuse

In regards to the barriers of entry, yes the gloves industry looks good.
You are well aware that setting up factory, production line and approvals for exports could easily take up more than a year. Who would risk setting up a factory when Covid 19 could have just ended in less than a year, before the factory is completed? Besides, gloves is a volume game, you do need that economies of scale. Who in their right mind would want to compete with the Big 4, given that their costs are like USD 0.06c a piece? Are new entrants confident that they can beat that price? Plus the oversupply in a few years time will bring down ASP that will hurt new entrant's margin even further.

Posted by chtan33 > 2020-06-05 23:22 | Report Abuse

who really care about 3, 5 or 10 years later? Perhaps 10 days, 5 weeks or 3 months later that matter. people don't care about the long term prospect but the short term price performance. As tide change, just dump, cut win or cut loss simply.

Posted by IIImNoob > 2020-06-06 02:10 | Report Abuse

I agree with comments from Fabie & chtan33 ; both very valid … Right now the money is in Gloves … Nobody knows what will happen few years down … There maybe new virus or threats popping out by then …. This article provides a viewpoint in terms of figures only, but discards other factors …

Posted by michaelwong > 2020-06-06 02:31 | Report Abuse

The rerating subsequently will be revised once the sale volume of gloves decreases on a quarterly basis by basis and this is norm which has been discounted and not fixed TP of RM23 or similarly some RM20 estimation .
The TP set current is based on the high demands sales volume and higher ASP

Posted by michaelwong > 2020-06-06 02:53 | Report Abuse

Secondly different IB have different version of analysis valuations and infact there's no exact amount of accuracy put forward to determine TP as you noticed all this while . Is just an estimated TP set currently based on its nearest valuations among others IB with the range from RM 20 to 30 taking into consideration and account of its higher demands with the ongoing pandemic Covid19 disease that would last about a year and so forth .

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 06:51 | Report Abuse

long term FA Investors will never buy this lah

They prefer to buy base on last 10 years' data

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 06:54 | Report Abuse

I am thinking even at 2022/23 (PAT RM836.6 million), if the profits is going to double the numbers for the normal period of 2019/20 - that is a stretch.

Double???

Just like Ricky, it seems that Felicity never bother to read any analyst report on Topglove or Supermax etc

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 07:00 | Report Abuse

So far KCChong has yet to post any comment on glove bullrun..

I m quite curious on his view....hope can get his comments

Anyway it seems to me so far non of the FA sifus r in glove....they all missed it...

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-06 09:01 | Report Abuse

I was in topglove for 10 years, I sold at 10.30, if based on last year, I have shares in at 5.50.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp#tabs_group2

I didn't miss it, or QL either or the bullrun of PCHEM from 4 to 7.

CherriesT I waiting for you bak kut teh meal next year, you mnrb not going very well, but luckily you got lucky in gloves.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-06 09:04 | Report Abuse

You are a speculator who had never attended a single glove AGM or stepped into a factory before in your life. And you assume analysts figures must be correct just because you make money from them. Did you know that Supermax boss spent 5 years in prison for insider trading? That's why the prison is also called supermax. Unlike you speculators, I have bought topglove early, I visited the factory, and I buy based on FA.

What did you do? Buy based on 1 quarter of hope?

>>>>>>>>>>

CharlesT I am thinking even at 2022/23 (PAT RM836.6 million), if the profits is going to double the numbers for the normal period of 2019/20 - that is a stretch.

Double???

Just like Ricky, it seems that Felicity never bother to read any analyst report on Topglove or Supermax etc
06/06/2020 6:54 AM

Posted by ken > 2020-06-06 09:19 | Report Abuse

I agree with felicity. It is overprice. Future earning can't support this kind of share price. However under gloves mania period, anything can happened... wait until mania drean broken. Everyone return to reality.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:19 | Report Abuse

Bakuteh with abalone...if i lose lah..still got 6 months to go...lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:21 | Report Abuse

Philip tell me something i dunno lah..

U dont believe topglove's Tan Sri Lim as well?

Or u think he cook the story too like Stanley ah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:22 | Report Abuse

N Harta n Kossan also cook together with Stanley n bank analyst??

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:22 | Report Abuse

No price increase at all in glove ah??or only 3% higher year to date?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:23 | Report Abuse

Philip i knew yr pain after selling yr topglove at rm10.3..dont worry u will feel more pain ahead...get use to it...

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:25 | Report Abuse

I rather be a speculator who can make two hundred percent gain in a year than a long term so called value investor who can make 20% a year for past 10 years

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:28 | Report Abuse

1 q of hope?? Pls wake up...at least to spend some time on any inv banks report on any top 4 glove co..

U dont like stanley supermax coz he went to jail b4 u can just read other 3 glove co..

Dont be such a loser sourgrape loh

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:31 | Report Abuse

Got time to visit topglove factory ( 5 years or 10 years ago ah) but no time to read inv bank report few days ago or even newspaper

Whats going wrong with all u so called long term value investor leh

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-06 09:33 | Report Abuse

Sure kid, better to have 25% CAGR over 10 years than to make 200% on gloves and lose 50% after all in on MNRB. Funny. You do the math ok, what is your compounded returns?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:38 | Report Abuse

Philip let me teach u..

To start with it, check n verify how much is glove selling price now..is it 200% or 300% higher than early this year?

Second, if this is true..how much will this contribute to the rise in their profit...

Thire, how long can it last? One quarter or two or more?

Happy learning... old dogs still can learn new tricks..
Yes Philip u sure can...

Posted by PN2020 > 2020-06-06 09:39 | Report Abuse

Will not last, once vaccines found and production can
starts with worldwide distribution,all these counters will
limits up or down,your guess is as good as mine.

Posted by hng33 > 2020-06-06 09:39 | Report Abuse

Th number of new case is keep increasing trend, record exceed 100k case every day. It is getting worsen rather than subside.

Even if vaccines found, how effective and how many time dose need to inject and can how long last the vaccines protection against virus. The virus unlike any other SAS or HINI, it spread for so rapidly, long and have infected million of people, the fatality rate of more than 5% and easy route of infection remain a risk of recurring pandemic through virus mutation.

Different vibrant of virus already found, type a, b, and c and it can continue evolve in future. The pathogenic of virus is prove capable of evolving. Global healthcare awareness is increasing, demanding personal protection become new normal in future not only confine into medical field, but more importantly, the increasing demand from non-medical field to avoid foreclosure risk if new case found.

First Epicenter of Covid-9
1. China
2. Italy

Current epicenter of Covid-9
1. US
2. Russia
2. Brazil

Next epicenter of covid-9
1. India
2. Pakistan
3. Bandgalesh
4. South African



South Africa's COVID-19 cases rise and president worries about Cape Town region

CAPE TOWN - Even as South Africa eases its coronavirus lockdown, infection numbers have started to rise quickly and President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Friday he was particularly concerned about the province around Cape Town.

Western Cape, whose Table Mountain and wine tours make it a leading tourist destination, has become the country's main coronavirus hotspot, with around two-thirds of the country's total 40,792 cases. It has also recorded 651 out of the the country's total of 848 deaths.

South Africa recorded its largest daily jump of cases on Thursday, with 3,267 new cases.

Ramaphosa visited Cape Town on Friday to be briefed on efforts to tackle the virus, including the opening of a new temporary field hospital for mild to moderately sick patients.

"The Western Cape is the epicentre for COVID-19 infections and this concerns us deeply," he said.

The government is expecting an escalation of cases ahead of a predicted August/September peak and rising community infection rates in densely-packed poor townships. But it is struggling with shortages of test kits, healthcare staff and hospital beds.

"We must increase the number of beds ... It's better to over provide than to under provide because the worst is still to come," Ramaphosa said.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-06 09:41 | Report Abuse

Don't be an idiot, I held for 10 years of course I believe in topglove. But I also know valuation, if you tell me topglove growth going to be like PCHEM 2 billion-4 billion in earnings every year for the next 10 years, then I tell you you are nuts.

But go ahead, hold your glove stocks, speculator. I use simple math.

When topglove valuation is the same as Pchem valuation, which do you think is more like likely:

Pchem earning 4 billion every year over the next ten years? 16 billion revenue.

Or topglove earning 4 billion every year over the next ten years? 16 billion revenue.

Now that you have that covered, use your brain and tell yourself topglove is worth more than Pchem.

I have zero qualms selling topglove at 10.30 to buy pchem at rm5. Because I don't look at share price increase, I look at economics and business.

Only kids like you think topglove and supermax will outearn Pchem, public Bank in the long run.

I think I will also do some charity and invite some kids from the local orphanage to attend the lunch in 6 months. I'm sure you will have your 200% winnings to treat them.



>>>>>>>>>

CharlesT Philip tell me something i dunno lah..

U dont believe topglove's Tan Sri Lim as well?

Or u think he cook the story too like Stanley ah?
06/06/2020 9:21 AM

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:42 | Report Abuse

U want to show yr underwear photo even yr nude photo here its yr own biz...

U want everybody to follow u meh..

Be my guest...its a free world..but enjoy yrself

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:45 | Report Abuse

Visited topglove 10 years ago but hv no clue at all how much will be their profit nexr year..


Funny right??

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:47 | Report Abuse

All investment has to keep for at least 10 years ah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:47 | Report Abuse

One to two years cannot lah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:48 | Report Abuse

Yr rule ah? We all hv to follow ah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:50 | Report Abuse

If less than 10 years then will become speculators ah? Is it an offence n will go to jail like stanley ah? Dont scare me ah

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:54 | Report Abuse

Philip grow up lah...argue like a man on my points in glove..dont be a small litle boy keep on repeating abt 10 years grandmother story

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:56 | Report Abuse

Hv a start, go to read the latest maybank inv's report on topglove with tp rm20..

I shall wait for u here for yr constructive feedback..dont worry

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 09:56 | Report Abuse

Dont be a coward..

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-06 09:59 | Report Abuse

CharlesT just make sure you turn up for bak kut teh in 6 months. But make sure you don't play margin on gloves, otherwise in 6 months I need to treat you instead no face la.

Ql - 6.9 (9.17)
Mnrb -0.97(0.74)

Try to talk bad about other sifu, but your own 2 year results already show your investing acumen.

But you think topglove can outearn Pchem over the long term, very funny.

Just post here and tell everyone,

YES I THINK GLOVE STOCKS WILL MAKE MORE MONEY THAN BANK STOCKS AND PCHEM OVER THE LONG TERM.

I'm definitely bringing more kids from the orphanage to enjoy a day out with the professional clown.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 10:01 | Report Abuse

I beliebbe next 2 years will be damn good.
Next 10 years i dunno leh.


Just like i dunno whether u will stil be alive 10 years later..

But again..who cares leh

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 10:03 | Report Abuse

Same monkey trick of philips..

Try to divert to my earlier bet on him..

No balls to argue on gloves earning in next 2 year ah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 10:05 | Report Abuse

Can topglove make more than 200% profit in 2021??

Dony tell me their plant is very big when u visited them 10 years ago ah..

Philip ah philip u r not a history teacher leh

Posted by Sslee > 2020-06-06 10:05 | Report Abuse

Dear all, for your weekend reading.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2020-06-06-story-h1508664959-We_can_t_breathe_Covid_19_pandemic_racism_and_political_economic_crisis.jsp
We can’t breathe: Covid-19 pandemic, racism and political/economic crisis

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-06 10:06 | Report Abuse

By holding Topglove at 16 and Supermax at 8, you are trying everyone that either:

1. Tg and Supermax is worth more than public Bank and Maybank in terms of earnings, dividends and revenue or
2. You are searching for another fool who will buy the tulip from you at higher mania prices.

These are your points. Right?

Supermax is 1/4 the value of Pchem with 1/40 the earnings of PCHEM. You thesis is Supermax can make 1 billion in earnings every year for the next 5-10 years?

THAT IS YOUR POINT? REALLY? JUST FROM ONE BLACK SWAN EVENT? From 100 million in earnings to 1 billion in earnings?

WOW. BRILLIANT.


>>>>>>>>

CharlesT When cant win by points then ask u to show yr 10 years or 20 years results or even underwear....
06/06/2020 9:52 AM

Posted by Bearvsbull Bendia > 2020-06-06 10:07 | Report Abuse

Same case like Hengyuan! So many promoting at the peak! Then suddenly the game turns cold!
I am becare with glove stocks going forward! There's already oversupply at the moment! Remember, Malaysia is not the only supplier in this world! Other natios are supplying as well! We just experiencing a windfall due to Covid19!
And judging from latest situation, alot of countries already adopting to this new normal! Meaning they allow full infection to take place and let everybody build immunity to it! Just look at US, they basically don't care anymore! And the serious cases turn out to be very tiny! There's oversupply of ventilators, oversupply of gloves, oversupply of everything!

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-06 10:12 | Report Abuse

When analyst write one article, but their investment bank bosses cap margin ceiling for topglove at 9.35, you know that what banks day and what they do is different.

My selling price at 10.30 coincides with the margin of safety that banks require which reflects their profit/loss, not what the analysts say, which is just talking heads that don't care about profit/loss, only more trading dollars.

Maybank TP for gloves at 20 or Maybank margin call at 9.35, which do you think is the real value?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 10:13 | Report Abuse

anyway still got 6 months to go b4 our bet ends

can belanja u BKT with abalone whether i win or lose

thanks to stanley

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 10:15 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Jun 6, 2020 10:12 AM | Report Abuse

When analyst write one article, but their investment bank bosses cap margin ceiling for topglove at 9.35, you know that what banks day and what they do is different.

My selling price at 10.30 coincides with the margin of safety that banks require which reflects their profit/loss, not what the analysts say, which is just talking heads that don't care about profit/loss, only more trading dollars.

Maybank TP for gloves at 20 or Maybank margin call at 9.35, which do you think is the real value?

Do u think their profit grow more than 100% in 2021 or 2022

Maybank Inv expected their profit to incease by 900% in 2021...

Go to study their report and maybe we can hentam them together later...crazy right?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 10:16 | Report Abuse

come lets study something new today..instead of talking past 10 years grandmother story...

more fun....

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-06 10:16 | Report Abuse

Too bad kids like you make 200% in one trade think your are ego and good money makers, but forget your own long term 10 years investment results.

Posted by Goldberg > 2020-06-06 10:17 | Report Abuse

Another re-rating by Macquarie Research dated 5th June 2020.

Macquarie Equities Research (MQ Research) upgraded Top Glove’s target price (TP) to RM20.50 based on the increased assumption on Top Glove’s average selling price (ASP) by 10-15%, resulting in a 54%/44% increase in FY20E-22E earnings. Also, ahead of Top Glove’s earnings results scheduled to be released next week, MQ Research expects a better-than-expected 3QFY20 and an even stronger 4Q20.

Conclusion
MQ Research reiterates an Outperform rating on Top Glove with an increased target price of RM20.50 based on a higher CY21 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 40x vs RM12.30 on a 32x PE before. The strong pricing power and lower customer concentration risk provide Top Glove more flexibility to raise the average selling price (ASP), and now the company is looking to increase guidance, indicating upside risk to consensus estimates. As MQ Research views gloves as a staple within the medical sector, MQ Research thinks the valuation is undemanding and looks more attractive than consumer staples, which trade at a >40x PE with lower earnings growth of ~10% vs Top Glove: 27%.

Impact
New and more aggressive ASP strategy. Shortages have led to stronger pricing power for glove manufacturers. Based on MQ Research’s checks, Top Glove increased its June and July order deliveries higher than initial guidance of 5% per month. In addition, Top Glove implemented a new capacity allocation strategy for the remainder of 2020 – 10% for spot orders, which has at least a 2.5x-3x higher ASP, and increased its exposure to smaller distributors, which allows more upside risk to the ASP in this period. As such, MQ Research raises its FY20E-21E ASP assumption by 10-15%.
Expect good 3QFY20 results but 4QFY20 to be stronger. 3QFY20 results will start reflecting the COVID-19 orders and the total ASP increase of 10%-15% in March-May order deliveries. However, MQ Research expects 4QFY20 will be even stronger on the back of the more aggressive ASP increases and its new capacity allocation strategy. MQ Research expects the 2HFY20 earnings before interest tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin will be expanded to 33%, the highest since its listing. MQ Research’s 2HFY20 implies a quadruple in net profit vs 1HFY20

Multiple re-rating due to strong quarterly earnings.
History has shown that Top Glove’s share price tracks quarterly earnings. MQ Research believes the next re-rating catalyst is strong 4QFY20-3QFY21 quarterly earnings. The stock is likely to re-test its peak PER valuation of 40x. MQ Research believes consensus has not baked in its latest strategy. MQ Research’s FY20E-21E are 83-88% ahead of consensus.
Earnings and Target Price Revision
MQ Research raises its FY20E-22E earnings per share by 54%/44% to reflect a higher ASP.

Price Catalyst
12-month price target: RM20.50 based on a PER methodology.
Catalyst: quarterly results, further ASP increases.
Action and recommendation
MQ Research reiterates an Outperform on Top Glove with a higher target price of RM20.50.

Source: Macquarie Research - 5 Jun 2020

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-06-06 10:20 | Report Abuse

how u knew my 10 years inv results leh?

dont tell me u knew my underwear's colour also...

shhh...today no wear