Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 12:13 | Report Abuse

It is never in Petdag/Boustead (BH petrol), a pure retail petrol business, to report FIXED profit due to fixed price at all. It is often commented factor that affect profit margin are sale volume + fuel price movement+ time lag affect factors on stockholding gain/loss

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-09 12:30 | Report Abuse

The petrol retail valuation then in year 2019 precovid time.
Edge Weekly
Newsbreak: Boustead Holdings to exit petrol station business
Jose Barrock
/
The Edge Malaysia

September 16, 2019 16:00 pm +08

A source with knowledge of the matter says, “This (waiting on the sidelines) is because the price tag being bandied about is more than RM1 billion … maybe even RM1.5 billion, or more.

“There are quite a few parties that are looking at it [even though the price tag is high], and there are others still on the sidelines, waiting to see what sort of valuations are being sought by Boustead Holdings.”

BPM sells petrol and similar products such as diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as well as related products such as lubricants. According to Boustead Holdings’ annual report for FY2018, BPM operates as many as 386 petrol stations and marts selling a variety of things.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-09 12:37 | Report Abuse

At price of RM 4.71.
Petronm Market Cap: 1,272 Million
NOSH: 270 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks): 347,120
4 Weeks Range: 4.20 - 5.23
4 Weeks Price Volatility (%): 49.51%
52 Weeks Range: 4.05 - 7.73
52 Weeks Price Volatility (%): 17.93%

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-09 16:03 | Report Abuse

Why suddenly crack spread drop back so low to USD 4 to USD 6 level leh ?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 16:58 | Report Abuse

Crack spread current level is normalize level at around 7. At these level refinery still is profitable business as its cost operation is around USD 4 to 5.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1!/

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-09 18:19 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan, pure refiner, need at least crack spread 4 to breakeven. At its annual report, hengyuan alrdy able to report profit for crack spread above 4.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-10 08:21 | Report Abuse

Good Rebound of crack spread from USD 6 to USD 8, but this may not excite potential investors, bcos most investors had been being seeing Crack spread USD 15 to USD 30 previously mah!

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-10 08:50 | Report Abuse

If based on historical data chart, crack spread above 10 is considered an outlier, a rare windfall profit.

The mean crack spread should range 5 to 8, which already gives very good profit margin as refinery cost operation breakeven level is around 4.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-10 08:59 | Report Abuse

Crack spread above 20 in Q2 will record in the coming result, although is one-off windfall profit, an exception EPS will nevertheless boost company cash hoard significantly.

Bear in mind, if PetronM manages to record EPS RM 2 - RM 2.5 due to exception crack spread in Q2, it could potentially turn its balance sheet into NET CASH position, a significant game changer forward.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-10 09:04 | Report Abuse

U see Petrol co enjoying Crack Spread of USD 20 previously, surely if suddenly crack spread fall back to USD 4 to 8 will cause some downward adjustment in term of operations mah!

For June...Petrol co will enjoy good result loh!

But 3rd QTR result will not be so bullish mah!

Mkt already anticipating this loh!

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-08-10 09:11 | Report Abuse

Petron Corporation, the holding company of Petron M had already announced it's profit early this month which is doubled. From there you can actually gauge roughly the results of Petron M.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-10 09:14 | Report Abuse

You have to compare the stock price level which is also already reach normalize level. But these normalize level have yet take into account upcoming Q2 result, which will boost EPS RM 2- RM 2.5. The company cash level, balance sheet and NTA, all have yet to reflect at current share price level.

Although stock price wont reflect totally the above Q2 profit on share price due to projection next Q3 downtrend EPS, but it will at least reflect certain fraction of above profit impact on stock price.

The significant boost in profit in Q2 (if EPS is RM 2-2.5) is already enough to cover next 4-5 year normalize EPS. Furthermore, the forward valuation and dividend also attractive to support the current share price as future normalize crack spread still give good profit margin, is profitable business + forward interest expense significant decrease,

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-10 09:18 | Report Abuse

Don forget PetronM aside as refiner, also possess valuable 750 retail station, each own underground storage tank for petrol/diesel, still selling at elevated RM 4.5/l

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-10 09:32 | Report Abuse

PetronM in long term valuation should be based on sum of part

1. Refinery business （30%）- valuation 4x (cyclical business)
2. Petrol station （70%） - valuation 10x (retail business)

Posted by Rabbit2 > 2022-08-10 09:37 | Report Abuse

The announcement is available at Petron Corporation website.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-10 09:50 | Report Abuse

As prices of finished products further surged in the second quarter, refining cracks also strengthened. Petron benefited from the strong regional refining margins with higher production at the refiner....

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-doubles-consolidated-net-income-in-h1-2022/

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-10 09:57 | Report Abuse

Petron corporation's detail Q2 result have yet to release. Its result encompasse Philippine, Malaysia, Singapore and business range from crude oil. refined product, fuel, and marketing station in various countries.

Still need to wait for local PetronM to release result for more insight detail

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-10 11:53 | Report Abuse

Masih pegang dan tunggu ia mengumumkan Q2 keputusan yg cemerlang

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-10 20:11 | Report Abuse

RON 97 decrease just another 10sen to RM 4.40/l. These level is still RM 1.00/ l higher if compared to last year level RM 3.40 when crack spread at 7-8.

For information, Highest RON 97 at 4.90/l recorded when crack spread trade above 30.

Slow decreasing petrol price as compared to rapid normalize crack spread (input cost) offer great lag time arbitrary gain for PetroM total 750 nationwide petrol station, each have underground storage tank. Input cost rapid decrease, but, selling prices still retain elevated level.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-10 22:56 | Report Abuse

Aug 2022
Crude oil USD94-96
Crack spread 7-8
RON 97 selling price RM 4.40/liter

Dec 2021
Crude oil 94-96
Crack spread 7-8
RON 97 selling price was RM 3.40/litre

Remark: Gov delay in adjusting retail petrol pricing, benefiting PetronM total 750 retail station

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-11 09:43 | Report Abuse

Sialang lo

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2022-08-11 11:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by Sslee > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

D1N1!
SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX
9.759.
Singapore Mogas 95 future quote = 106.21
Singapore Mogas 92 future quote = 102.46
The difference = Around 3.75.

1 barrel of Mogas 95 = 106.21
1 barrel of crude oil = 89.00
Gross profit = 17.21
Refinery cost = 3.00 to 4.00 per barrel (according to goggle)
Net profit margin = 14.21 to 13.21 (average 13.71)

If you add 3.75 to 9.76 = 13.51
My sifu said, you should add 3.75 to Singapore Mogas 92 crack spread margin in order to be accurate.
I get permission from my sifu to post this information for benefit of all readers here.

Posted by The St. Goreng > 2022-08-11 11:36 | Report Abuse

Half day of trading. value traded only RM33k. Lame stock it seems no more monkey shouting

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-11 12:55 | Report Abuse

Masih pegang dan menantikan ia mengumumkan keputusan Q2 yg cemerlang

Posted by abc333 > 2022-08-11 13:01 | Report Abuse

货源归边。货到散户还是庄?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-11 17:05 | Report Abuse

be patients, just another 2 week for Q2 result release. The exceptional record breaking earning will leap up significantly balance sheet, NTA, cash hoard, future dividend payout

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-12 12:36 | Report Abuse

Sapu babe

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-12 13:54 | Report Abuse

Betul. Tunggu ia mengumumkan keputusan Q2 yg cemerlang dan saya rasa permintaan O&G akan meningkat

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-12 15:20 | Report Abuse

hoot9

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-15 17:26 | Report Abuse

coming results should be good as Oil prices uptrend. 750 petrol station should give good profit as economy recovers. Only thing is it is a simple refinery not a complex refinery like Heng Yuan. KYY just mentioned that Hibiscus is now good, so Oil and refineries should do well.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-16 09:33 | Report Abuse

Petron currently has a long-term supply contract of Tapis crude oil and Terengganu condensate for its Port Dickson Refinery from ExxonMobil Exploration
and Production Malaysia Inc. (EMEPMI) and Low Sulphur Waxy Residue Sale/Purchase Agreement with Exxon Trading Asia Pacific, a division of ExxonMobil Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd.

On the average, around 55% of crude and condensate volume processed are from EMEPMI with balance of around 45% from spot purchases.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-16 09:47 | Report Abuse

Q1 2022, the Average refining crack increased from
1. Gasoline cracks from USD 7.1/bbl to USD 17.8/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 5.8/bbl to USD 21.6/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.3/bbl to USD 16.2/bbl.

1H 2022 Average refining cracks increased from
1. Gasoline crack from USD 8.5/bbl to USD 26.4/bbl
2. diesel cracks from USD 6.4/bbl to USD 36.6/bbl,
3. kero-jet cracks from USD 3.9/bbl to USD 27.7/bbl.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-16 09:56 | Report Abuse

Petron sources light crude oil with low sulphur, therefore a simple refinery process is enough to produce gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-16 10:16 | Report Abuse

just wait for result, will release very soon

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-16 10:18 | Report Abuse

Petronas dagangan owns 1000 retail station vs. Petron own 750 retail stations

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-16 18:46 | Report Abuse

Nampaknya permintaan minyak terjejas oleh sebab kelembapan ekonomi di China...

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-17 10:05 | Report Abuse

As of latest up-to-date crack spread level now, only gasoline crack spread adjust more significantly from peak level, but still remains above USD 10 which is still command fat profit margin. The other two crack spread index remain at elevated level, at multiple year high upper range

1. Gasoline crack USD 10.641/bbl
2. diesel cracks USD 41.46/bbl
3. kero-jet cracks USD 32.30/bbl

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-17 10:57 | Report Abuse

Jangan risau sangat dan tunggu ia mengumumkan Q2 result kemudian baru boleh buat keputusan yang rasional dan tepat

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-17 15:34 | Report Abuse

Lets just compared petronM retail value with petdag

Market capitalisation
Petdag RM 23.29 billion, retail station 1000

Vs.

Petron market capitalisation RM 1.27 billion, for 750 retail station!?

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-17 16:16 | Report Abuse

Petron Phillipines already reported strong profit thru higher Refining Margins and Retail sales in M sia, Phillipines and trade in Singapore. No reason why Petron will show lower profit. Heng Yuan should also do well as seen in Binh Son astonishing profit.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-17 22:01 | Report Abuse

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen)

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-18 10:27 | Report Abuse

Analisis yg baik, hng33. Saya juga percaya PetronM akan mengumumkan keputusan Q2 yg bagus

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-18 10:40 | Report Abuse

8.88 coming!!! =D

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-18 10:42 | Report Abuse

SIALANG HENGYUAN C24 & PETRONM CY~~~ =D

Both mother shares will shoot to 8.88 soon!!! =D

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2022-08-18 11:32 | Report Abuse

Oil prices eased on Thursday, reversing course from the previous session, as rising output from Russia and worries about a potential global recession weighed on futures.
Brent crude futures fell 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $93.32 a barrel. U.S. crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $87.71 a barrel.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-18 11:35 | Report Abuse

When Hengyuan & Petronm hit 18.00 & 15.00 back in 2017/2018...the oil price was only $60pb...

So the current oil price is sibeh good enough to push the price higher....

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-18 14:36 | Report Abuse

Syndicates are coming in.... show time!!! =D

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-18 15:01 | Report Abuse

Result should out by next Friday (26/08), drumroll please~ =D

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-18 15:37 | Report Abuse

Ha Ha. May our wishes come true. HYuan reach RM 8.88, Call Warrants C 24 reach RM 0.88, and PetronM, Call Wrt, CY also reach 0.88 or at least RM 0.77 !! Hopefully Petron and HengYuan can give bumper dividends.!!

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-19 04:23 | Report Abuse

SIALANG HENGYUAN C24 & PETRONM CY~~~ =D

Both mother shares will shoot to 8.88 soon!!! =D
When Hengyuan & Petronm hit 18.00 & 15.00 back in 2017/2018...the oil price was only $60pb...

So the current oil price is sibeh good enough to push the price higher....

Syndicates are coming in.... show time!!! =D

Oil up~ Crack spread up~ profit 99.99% up~ what are you waiting for???

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D