Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-19 09:51 | Report Abuse

Kekurangan inventori minyak telah membuktikan bahawa permintaan O&G kian hari kian meningkat

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Crude-Inventories-Fell-To-Lowest-Level-Since-2004-In-June.html

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-19 17:19 | Report Abuse

Crude Oil price up, so Petron and HengYuan should do well. With 750 stations and slow to reduce prices when price down, can have inventory gain. HYuan C 24, have gone down a lot, now only 6.5 cents !! Long maturity, worth a try.

Posted by philip31 > 2022-08-21 20:57 | Report Abuse

Results will out on the 23rd August.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-22 09:15 | Report Abuse

Syndicates are coming in.... show time!!! =D

Oil up~ Crack up~ profit 999.99% up~ what are you waiting for???

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D

Posted by abc333 > 2022-08-22 10:50 | Report Abuse

PAT 168++m , highest profit ever , uptrend till year end, at least.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-22 11:53 | Report Abuse

TA start to show signal to perform while awaitng FA (Q result) to reaffirm uptrend

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-22 12:17 | Report Abuse

Don surprise if RON97 reverse to increease 5sen in coming Wed. These is despite global crude oil decreasing, but crack spread for diessel remain elevated and gasoline also rebounding recently.

Aside coming Q2 windfall result, Refiner still enjoy bumper profit margin for next Q3 forward.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-22 12:41 | Report Abuse

Now I understand how Petronm do a commodity swap as hedging.
Example: Today Petronm just buy physical oil 1 million barrel at USD 80 per barrel.

Since the 1 million barrel on oil will reach PD then into storange tank and process into finish products in 30 days time hence Petronm make a commodity swap with counterparty at USD 80 per barrel for 600K barrel maturity 30 days later.

At the end of 30 days the average 30 days oil market price is now USD90 per barrel hence Petronm need to pay counterrparty 600K x USD(90-80) = USD 6 million.

For this commodity swap Pertonm make a derivatives lose of USD 6 million but that lose will actually be recovered by stock gain because the USD 80 per barrel 30 day ago purchased is now worth more (USD 90) in inventories gain.

Similarly if the average 30 days oil market price drop below USD 80 what gain from commodity swap will be losses in value of inventories.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-22 13:24 | Report Abuse

This is true theoretically loh!
But in practise it is not mah!

The explanation is as follow....if Petron is so concern of its 1 million barrel of crude....it should be more concern about its existing inventory which is about say 6x bigger mah!

Thus instead of Petron hedge 1 million barrel.....it end up hedging 6 million barrel loh!

Thus should....the crude price move against it ....this will magnify the losses by 6x whereas....if they gain....it will magnify 6x loh!

This why the previous owner Esso & Shell do not use derivative to hedge....bcos they view a single order of 1 million barrel price movement.....can easily be absorbed by the normal business operations loh!

Thus they do not like to use the double edge swap....that may lead speculation & gambling loh!

Posted by Sslee > 25 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Now I understand how Petronm do a commodity swap as hedging.
Example: Today Petronm just buy physical oil 1 million barrel at USD 80 per barrel.

Since the 1 million barrel on oil will reach PD then into storange tank and process into finish products in 30 days time hence Petronm make a commodity swap with counterparty at USD 80 per barrel for 600K barrel maturity 30 days later.

At the end of 30 days the average 30 days oil market price is now USD90 per barrel hence Petronm need to pay counterrparty 600K x USD(90-80) = USD 6 million.

For this commodity swap Pertonm make a derivatives lose of USD 6 million but that lose will actually be recovered by stock gain because the USD 80 per barrel 30 day ago purchased is now worth more (USD 90) in inventories gain.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-22 13:52 | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
The 1 million barrels purchased is just an example for one contract. (60% hedged)

Petronm PD refinery Q1 running at 47K barrel per day.

The retail sales include import of finished products as PD refinery not capable to met the full retail sales volume.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-22 13:54 | Report Abuse

I understand...but what i m emphasizing....is most of the time they over hedge....resulting in wild earning fluctuation mah!

Posted by Sslee > 29 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
The 1 million barrels purchased is just an example for one contract. (60% hedged)

Petronm PD refinery Q1 running at 47K barrel per day.

The retail sales include import of finished products as PD refinery not capable to met the full retail sales volume.

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-22 14:45 | Report Abuse

BEST RESULT EVER!!! =D

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-22 15:37 | Report Abuse

https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

Posted by probability > 2022-08-22 22:57 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge, i think going forward the hedging loss will become minimal and can even turn into hedging gain as expansion of refining margin peaked in June 22'.

This effectively means the gross profit we calculate above using the crack spread is what will be reported actually.

In terms of taxation, i have no idea whether the rate will be higher than current.

I realized a lot of useful information related to derivatives or hedging on Q&A session with PetronM. I think the person who had asked these questions are very much from i3 :)

Refer Questions 15 till 21

https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf


Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Aug 22, 2022 10:46 PM | Report Abuse

probability,
Can make a net PAT of 1.0 billion in Q2 2022 and Q3 2022 respectively or an EPS of 3.00 ?
Is the above assumption possible ?

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-23 10:31 | Report Abuse

SIALANG HENGYUAN C24 & PETRONM CY~~~ =D

Both mother shares will shoot to 8.88 soon!!! =D






Syndicates are switching to FULL TURBO GEAR.... show time!!! =D

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-23 10:39 | Report Abuse

Grrroooommmm~~~~~~ =D

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-23 10:42 | Report Abuse

Menantikan keputusan Q2 dan jawapan akan ditunjukkan dalam laporan Q2

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-23 11:07 | Report Abuse

Eat pop corn, lets watch the show perfroming now :D)

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-23 12:22 | Report Abuse

Rm 7.00 coming mah!

Posted by sheldon > 2022-08-23 15:28 | Report Abuse

Ini kali lah!

Posted by param1 > 2022-08-23 15:45 | Report Abuse

AISEEH AFTER SOOO LONG

Posted by sheldon > 2022-08-23 15:54 | Report Abuse

An odd day for me. A day of mixed emotions. I'm firing away on 2 engines - Petron & Canone but some strong headwinds with B.Kawan!!

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-08-23 16:27 | Report Abuse

:-)))))

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-08-23 16:50 | Report Abuse

good news for today. phew.

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-23 17:20 | Report Abuse

Good day today. Follows world trend of incredible profit of Refining company. Got chance even Hibiscus will announce huge profit due to high Brent Oil price. Thnks to those that believe despite incredible opposition.

Posted by Cakes Moon > 2022-08-23 17:29 | Report Abuse

Insiders bought before the announcement of the result.
This world is unfair.

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-23 23:43 | Report Abuse

Possible PetronM next to limit up ?

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-24 10:11 | Report Abuse

Saya rasa kita boleh mengatakan bahawa harga saham downstream O&G sangat dipengaruhi oleh harga brent oil bukan harga refinery crack spread...

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-24 11:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-08-24 13:44 | Report Abuse

Surely Petron refinery & retail petrol stations worth alot of monies loh!
Also Petron owner pays good dividend mah!

Posted by cactus81 > 2022-08-24 17:18 | Report Abuse

Petdag just reported very good profit. About 300 percent increase in term of profit compared to corresponding period. Hope the same for pretronm.

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-24 19:33 | Report Abuse

Not a single banker I know wants to come out with any kind of in-depth coverage if either Petronm nor Hengyuan

Do you know why?

Posted by anthonytkh > 2022-08-24 19:33 | Report Abuse

*of

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-24 20:13 | Report Abuse

Someone posted this news if this is true. Coming days QR should be good!

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-doubles-consolidated-net-income-in-h1-2022/

Consolidated revenues came in at P398.52 billion, surpassing last year’s P174.13 billion, driven by the sustained increase in sales volume and prices. Dubai crude averaged US$102 per barrel from January to June as supply concerns persisted due to geopolitical conflicts.

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-24 20:13 | Report Abuse

Someone posted this news if this is true. Coming days QR should be good!
Aug 1, 2022
https://www.petron.com/news/petron-doubles-consolidated-net-income-in-...

Consolidated revenues came in at P398.52 billion, surpassing last year’s P174.13 billion, driven by the sustained increase in sales volume and prices. Dubai crude averaged US$102 per barrel from January to June as supply concerns persisted due to geopolitical conflicts.

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-24 20:23 | Report Abuse

Haha Pang72, are you still on the boat?

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-24 20:44 | Report Abuse

Petdag Q result comment (Pure downstream stock, source all refine product e.g jet fuel, diesel, gasoline from refiner )
Retail Segment
Retail Segment revenue increased by RM1,606.7 million, mainly contributed by higher sales volume of 50% as
well as increase in average selling prices by 4% in tandem with higher demand.
PBT recorded for the quarter was RM310.5 million, an increase of RM250.1 million against the corresponding
quarter, mainly contributed by higher gross profit from Mogas and Diesel following higher sales volume as well as higher other income contributed by gain on disposal of LPG business in Sarawak (proceeds from disposal of investment in Sarawak LPG business of RM40.0 million)

Commercial Segment
Commercial Segment recorded an increase in revenue of RM2,702.6 million or >100%, contributed by higher sales volume by 18% and increase in average selling prices by 85%. LBT of RM3.6 million was recorded as compared to PBT of RM28.0 million in the corresponding quarter last year.
This was predominantly due to lower gross profit from Diesel and Jet A1 following higher product costs resultant from steep increase in prices.

Petdagangan suffer loss in jet fuel and diesel for its commercial segment (consist of sales and purchase of petroleum products and provision of services to the commercial sector) - Sharp increase price by refiner resulted Petdag unable to fully pass to its commercial customer despite increase selling price 68%

Posted by SuperPanda > 2022-08-24 20:54 | Report Abuse

haiya ah pang, this old trick comparing petdag eps with petron/hy eps cannot use lah.. from petdag result the only thing valid to both hy/petron is the demand of end product at retail

we can agree that when retail sales up, demand for refine product also up
_______________________________________________
Posted by pang72 > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Petron eps 40c is much better than PETDAG 23c..

Petron rm5. 56 vs PETDAG rm22!!

I found petron shld chasing up to at least half of PETDAG

Posted by SuperPanda > 2022-08-24 20:56 | Report Abuse

the core profit from refine counter will always back to crack spread and hedging, but im confident both petron and hy will post very good result this quarter due to strong crack spread margin in Q2

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2022-08-24 21:24 | Report Abuse

Sell call petron 5.50-5.60
TP below 4
22/8/2022 9.23pm

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-24 21:49 | Report Abuse

From Q result of petron corporation, a parent company of PetronM,, the upcoming PetronM should range around EPS= 67-70sen.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-24 21:59 | Report Abuse

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen), i give a little higher range EPS = 67-70sen due to currency translation factor

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-24 22:10 | Report Abuse

Petron EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive

Posted by sonyx123 > 2022-08-24 22:32 | Report Abuse

@hng33 For Q1 how did you get the non-control interest profit of P350m? I am seeing P402mn

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-24 22:47 | Report Abuse

page 7

https://www.petron.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Petron-Corporation-SEC-Registration-No_-31171_Quarterly-Report-SEC-Form-17-Q-1st-Quarter-2022_12-May-2022.pdf

Posted by sonyx123 > 2022-08-24 22:48 | Report Abuse

Ok got it thanks. Wondering why the Balance Sheet is showing P402m increase

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-24 23:03 | Report Abuse

PetronM investor should post query in Petdag investor , and request for answer why they buy Petdag till RM22? why they don buy Petron till RM 22? If they said Petdag 1000 retail is largest, but, petron retail 750 is not too far behind and if profit divided by each retail, Petron retail profitability is higher. In additional, Petron is integrated downstream (refinery + retail/commercial) rather than Petdag pure downstream (retail/commercial), enable Petron to enjoy full range downstream value chain profit margin. https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

Q1: Petron Q2 EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan Q2 EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Q2: Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Q3: Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-24 23:07 | Report Abuse

Well, calculated hng33, are you an account, not many knows to calculate on the non-controlling interest

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-24 23:24 | Report Abuse

sslee know how to calculate first

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-24 23:55 | Report Abuse

hng33, why you did that division on the 26.6%

100% /26.6% = 3.76 --> where do you get this fraction --> I couldn't find in the qtr report
3.76 x Peso (945-350) = Peso 2237m

if the profit is 595m and malaysian petron takes only 26.6% of it then the calculation should be this way right

26.6/100X545= XXX --> correct me if i'm wrong