Posted by OTB > 2022-08-26 15:42 | Report Abuse

Do not twist the facts.
Nothing to do with others.
If make mistake, please apologise if you are a gentleman.
This is not the first time.
You are responsible for what you write.

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-08-26 15:47 | Report Abuse

you've got a fragile heart.
baby don't cry.

Posted by searchingmoney > 2022-08-26 15:58 | Report Abuse

jangan biasa sangat jaga tepi kain orang...

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-08-26 16:08 | Report Abuse

Petronm Q2 EPS RM0.68 but prices drop Rm0.40+ now

What if HY Q2 EPS is RM1.00+.........

Posted by subwayzzz > 2022-08-26 16:34 | Report Abuse

betul lah kata tu

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-26 16:37 | Report Abuse

@probabilty , thanks for coming to my defense. Sadly, we cannot find many in i3 that we can share knowledge, viewpoints and engage in intellectual discussion .

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 16:54 | Report Abuse

yes John, some just seems to enjoy poking others..could be many useless motives like ego, sadism, revenge, brag etc...

and useful motives too - to bring down share price using deceptive information
its unfortunate part of human nature...

just focus where its most beneficial to self

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-26 17:04 | Report Abuse

look at Hibiscus. After results out, price went down first. Malaysians, always Sell on News, buy on rumours. Then after 1 or 2 days only, price went up !! dont be surprised, Petronm will be like this.

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-26 17:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by SuperPanda > 2022-08-26 17:29 | Report Abuse

1st of all, dont teach me abt respect and integrity when you are not doing the same.. i had read your comments since 2016, not all of them with respect and integrity, some are really hurtful

2nd, this forum is not belong to you, its a free forum and i wrote the way i want, if you dont like it, dont read and reply me, its the same when i dont like you comment, id just ignored it

cheers
___________________
Posted by probability > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse

@superpanda, i think much people values Johnzhang's opinion than yours as he had shown integrity...

once you show disrespect and lack of integrity, eventually people no longer value your opinion..

your comments are just a waste of forum space then

Posted by SuperPanda > 2022-08-26 17:40 | Report Abuse

this an example of your real attitude…

tell you one fact, from 11k of my comments id never use f word to people in forum.. im only call him newbie and he cant accept that and become tantrum.. newbie is not a bad word.. its an opinion on your level of understandings from other people perspective… its my opinion, you cant tell me wrong
_______________
Posted by probability > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse

else, wtf f**k are you doing here?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 17:46 | Report Abuse

ok superpanda - just move on.. thought my msg will end the arguments.

hope it ends and go for more fruitful discussion

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-26 19:23 | Report Abuse

@OTB, no worries. I am not in active trading and therefore the day to day and month to month price movement is of no concern to me . I buy and hold PetronM, HY and many other stocks based on sound fundamentals of the company and business for a foreseeable period . That’s just my investing style and it works for me for years .
I remain convinced of the potential of Petron and HY for a foreseeable period of time until the dynamics of refining business changes.

Posted by OTB > 2022-08-26 19:39 | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang,
I also use buy and hold strategy for a period of time to win big.
I have 30 years of experience in stock investment.
I am not good in stock trading.
I prefer buy and hold for a mid term.
Good luck and hope you will win big.
Thank you.

Posted by sonyx > 2022-08-26 22:24 | Report Abuse

Hi Probability and SSLee, we all know that the D1N1 RON 92 Gasoline spread is commonly being used as a proxy for the crack margin spread. And of course now it has plummeted back to the normal level.

If we look at the Diesel and Jet Fuel crack it's still quite high vs earlier years.

Question is if any of you have any idea or certain that both Petron and HY are producing for all (i.e. blended crack rather than solely RON92)? Reason why I am asking is because it looks like the HY and Petron share price mirrors the movement of RON 92 more. Appreciate your views

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 22:27 | Report Abuse

@sonyx, refer Page 22 of the annual report for complete picture on HY products.

As a complex refinery HY has to ability to adjust yield of its products. HY produces 46% Diesel on this table.

https://klse1.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/422363.jsp

Posted by sonyx > 2022-08-26 22:28 | Report Abuse

And of course all those jokers naysayers are barking and create fears based of movement of the D1N1 (which of course now back to the normal level).

Posted by sonyx > 2022-08-26 22:30 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the prompt response @Probability. Ok looks like the Diesel mix should keep the blended crack margin intact for Q3 2022.... at least for now

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 22:32 | Report Abuse

Refer to the notes on how the weighted average refining margin is calculated:

Weighted Singapore product prices (for a standard Lytton Refinery basket of products)

Less: Reference crude price (the Ampol reference crude marker is Dated Brent)
Equals: Singapore Weighted Average Margin (Dated Brent basis)

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/ald/ampol-limited/news/2q-2022-lytton-refinery-performance-and-trading-update-2736295.html?ref=more_news


The Lytton Refiner Margin (LRM)1 for the second quarter reached the unprecedented level of US$32.96 per barrel, materially higher than the US$10.59 per barrel realised in the first quarter. The significant increase in Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM) was the key driver of the increase, reaching US$33.62 per barrel for the quarter

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 22:37 | Report Abuse

Asia's record level margin ever was in June 22' where diesel margin hit above 58 USD/brl.

Due to HY hedging effects the profit will fall into July.

July crack was relatively lesser and this will fall into Aug 22'.

Now crack has averaged quite good for Aug and this will reflect on Sept 22.

As such Q3 is secured with PAT that is very likely to be higher than Q2 results.


Posted by sonyx > Aug 26, 2022 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

Thanks for the prompt response @Probability. Ok looks like the Diesel mix should keep the blended crack margin intact for Q3 2022.... at least for now

Posted by sonyx > 2022-08-26 22:39 | Report Abuse

And is it correct to interpret that the basket of products would then be referred to let say (Diesel (which is 46% of mix) multiply with the market selling price based on the index + Fuel * D1N1 + ....)?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 22:39 | Report Abuse

yes exactly..

Posted by sonyx > Aug 26, 2022 10:39 PM | Report Abuse

And is it correct to interpret that the basket of products would then be referred to let say (Diesel (which is 46% of mix) multiply with the market selling price based on the index + Fuel * D1N1 + ....)?

Posted by sonyx > 2022-08-26 22:48 | Report Abuse

Thanks bro, much appreciated

Posted by probability > 2022-08-26 23:11 | Report Abuse

Extract from a news in June 22' concerning Diesel margin:

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/red-hot-asia-gasoil-margins-075310521.html

Refining margins for the benchmark 10 ppm gasoil in Singapore, which have soared nearly 63% in the last two weeks, hit $55.77 a barrel over Dubai crude on Monday, an all-time high according to Refinitiv data that goes back to 2014. Gasoil is currently the top money spinner for Asian refineries.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 08:12 | Report Abuse

Atlantic hurricane season may be about to snap out of historic dormancy
Nearing the midway point of hurricane season, the Atlantic basin is poised to finish a historically quiet August. But as September arrives, there is plenty that AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 08:17 | Report Abuse

From petronm AGM Q&A

Our refinery crude run was relatively lower in 2021 at about 36 thousand barrels per day due to low demand arising from the pandemic. However, it started to improve to 47 thousands barrels per day during Q1 2022 when domestic demand also recovered. Crude runs are planned based on the prevailing economics and local demands that vary monthly.

The typical yield of Tapis crude, which is the main component of the crude diet for the Port Dickson Refinery is about 60% diesel and jet fuel, 20 % gasoline and the balance comprising LPG and by-product such as Low Sulfur Waxy residue.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 08:28 | Report Abuse

Petronm would like to emphasize that the company is an integrated company. Both the refinery and marketing are contributing to the gross margin, and we are not officially reporting the split between the two. Our main business is the retail business but , in terms of the supply chain, we are sourcing either from the refinery production or import of the finished products . So, all parts of the supply chain are contributing to the margin. But we are not able to disclose the split between the two.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 08:36 | Report Abuse

https://www.petron.com.my/investor-relations/corporate-governance/

You can read the rest on above link.
6.
Click on: Questions and Answers MEW!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 08:38 | Report Abuse

Note: Tapis crude is more expensive than the standard Dubai crude

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 08:41 | Report Abuse

The by product Low Sulfur Waxy residue is sold at discount to crude.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 08:41 | Report Abuse

Revised below:
............

@sslee, 60% (diesel + Jet fuel) crack at say avg 40 USD/brl minus Tapis premium of 20 USD/brl, should provide at least a margin of 20 USD/brl in Q2 for PetronM.

If we use 47 kbpd, sales per qtr is :

= 47,000 bpd x 90 days x 60%
= 2.5 million barrels

As such gross profit from Diesel + Jet fuel ALONE:

= 20 USD/brl margin x 2.5 million barrel/qtr
= 220 million MYR

Gasoline margin was also high in Q2. As such something is missing or not accurate on their yield info from the AGM i think

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 08:49 | Report Abuse

Anyway during 2021 when refining margin is low Petronm still report an EPS of 88.3 cents and give dividend of 20 cents for 2021.

I just invest in Petronm for dividend and hopefully also capital gain.

For HRC I only hold 16K mother share but more on C24 and C26.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 08:53 | Report Abuse

Petronm cumulative 6 months from cash flows
Operating profit before changes in working capital is RM 637,742,000

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 09:00 | Report Abuse

The reason is HRC pure refinery play with per quarter 10+ million barrel processing capacity will delivered explosive profit when refinery margin is at this record level.

So worth to bet on C24 and C26

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-27 09:08 | Report Abuse

Sslee, only 16K in HY mother? I'm shocked!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-08-27 09:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-27 09:22 | Report Abuse

My C24 and C26 not buying at peak price. In fact my C24 are all free since I sold some to take back my capital.


By the way do you think HRC current price already peak? Wait to see what is the peak when HRC report the Q2 and Q3 result.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 09:33 | Report Abuse

@sslee, is the gross profit reported in Q2 of 415 million accounted the derivative loss (realized 207m & unrealized 166m) shown on section 18 of the financial report?

i cant see where it is accounted on the income statement

if its accounted, then PetronM is indeed benefitting significantly from the Diesel crack spread rise

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-27 10:29 | Report Abuse

@probability, go to note 18 where it mentioned Profit before tax after charging the following:
Derivative realized loss $207.86 mil
Unrealized loss $166.8 mil.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 10:34 | Report Abuse

yes John, but i am trying to tally this with the Income statement

does that mean the gross profit of 415m is after accounting this loss?

or is it accounted in 'óther expenses' after 'finance cost' on income statement?


Posted by Johnzhang > Aug 27, 2022 10:29 AM | Report Abuse

@probability, go to note 18 where it mentioned Profit before tax after charging the following:
Derivative realized loss $207.86 mil
Unrealized loss $166.8 mil.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 10:37 | Report Abuse

at the bottom pf page 14 under section 18, they do seem to be saying its accounted on the gross profit

if thats true, then petronm actual gross profit without derivative loss is much greater then?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 10:38 | Report Abuse

for HY the gross profit shown in income statement is before accounting derivative loss / gain

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-27 10:50 | Report Abuse

@probability, I think the realized loss is accounted in Cost of sales . The GP is therefore after charging $207.76 mil derivative loss.
The unrealized portion , which is a provision made ,of $166.8 mil is reflected as other expenses after GP line.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 10:56 | Report Abuse

ok thanks John. If thats true, then actual gross profit is 415 + 207 = 622 million MYR

thats very interesting as i firmly believe derivative loss will disappear once the crack and oil price steadies...

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-27 11:00 | Report Abuse

The accounting system in Petron and HY is different.
Petron’s GP is Revn less COS. COS include feedstocks and trading refined materials , refining cost and realized hedging gain/loss.

HY’s GP is Revn - Purchases. Purchase is for materials required including feedstock. And refining cost and derivatives are all accounted after GP.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 11:03 | Report Abuse

60% (diesel + Jet fuel) crack at say avg 40 USD/brl
20% (gasoline) avg 20 USD/ brl

If we use 47 kbpd, sales per qtr is :

= 47,000 bpd x 90 days
= 4.2 million barrels

Gross profit from Diesel + Jet fuel:

= 40 USD/brl margin x 4.2 million barrel/qtr x 60%
= 443 million MYR

Gross profit from Gasoline:

= 10 USD/brl margin x 4.2 million barrel/qtr x 20%
= 40 million MYR

Assuming the fuel cost offset the rest of the refinery product margin, the refinery contribution to gross profit:

= 443 + 40
= 483 million

Before the above changes, when refinery margin was low, retail contributes approximately 120 million gross profit

If we add the above two, we obtain about 600 million gross profit as reported.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 11:06 | Report Abuse

The above means PetronM is making huge margin at their refinery even using Tapis at a premium to Brent.

We can expect superb results for Hengyuan...

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-27 11:07 | Report Abuse

That’s what I think too. The provision for hedging loss of $166.8 mil made in Q2 stands good chance for write back as additional profit in Q3 if crude in Q3 is flat or lower . Is my understanding correct?



Posted by probability > 5 minutes ago | Report Abuse

ok thanks John. If thats true, then actual gross profit is 415 + 207 = 622 million MYR

thats very interesting as i firmly believe derivative loss will disappear once the crack and oil price steadies...

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 11:10 | Report Abuse

@sslee, appreciate your comments on the above too

Posted by probability > 2022-08-27 11:13 | Report Abuse

Interesting..could be true John.

To me the moment you realise a derivative loss realized or unrealized, then you have pegged the margin with a new level (mark to mark)...

so the next report will reflect the market margin at the end of June 22', if it had not changed further by end of Sept 22''

Posted by Johnzhang > Aug 27, 2022 11:07 AM | Report Abuse


That’s what I think too. The provision for hedging loss of $166.8 mil made in Q2 stands good chance for write back as additional profit in Q3 if crude in Q3 is flat or lower . Is my understanding correct?