Posted by koowakzai > 2021-09-30 20:45 | Report Abuse

Palm oil bullish.

Posted by novice2020 > 2021-10-01 10:40 | Report Abuse

Even during bad market mahu mari...

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-05 08:02 | Report Abuse

CGS-CIMB securities head , Ivy Ng, said yesterday " For 2021, we are looking at an average of $3,700 per tonne...."
I must alert Miss Ivy Ng that average for Jan - Sep 2021 is already $4,150. To get your full year average for 2021 ($3,700), CPO price for Oct-dec 2021 ought to be $2,350! How likely?
Probably she is smarter than people in the industry to see CPO plunging tommorow! What a shame!

Posted by novice2020 > 2021-10-05 10:23 | Report Abuse

If fund managers do not appreciate plantation counter. There is a high chance of the small and medium plantation companies taking the privatization route. They can ignore the ESG issues and have their pockets full of money with even CPO price of $2500-3000. The current share prices do not make sense at all for these companies to continue their listings on KLSE. it will be interesting to see the development in the next few months.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-05 11:16 | Report Abuse

It is opportunity if fund do not appreciate plantation loh!


Posted by novice2020 > Oct 5, 2021 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

If fund managers do not appreciate plantation counter. There is a high chance of the small and medium plantation companies taking the privatization route. They can ignore the ESG issues and have their pockets full of money with even CPO price of $2500-3000. The current share prices do not make sense at all for these companies to continue their listings on KLSE. it will be interesting to see the development in the next few months.

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-06 09:22 | Report Abuse

sell subur buy MHC.

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-06 09:45 | Report Abuse

Yes, I agree with stockraider. Most of the plantation counter are very cheap. Forward P/E of 5 to 8.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-10-06 23:38 | Report Abuse

good stock this mhc plant

3 HOME GROWN INDUSTRIES OF MALAYSIA GONE INTO BULL RUN OGSE (2019) MEDICAL GLOVES (2020) PALM OIL (2021) Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2021-10-06-story-h1591934709-3_HOME_GROWN_INDUSTRIES_OF_MALAYSIA_GONE_INTO_BULL_RUN_OGSE_2019_MEDICA.jsp

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-07 07:03 | Report Abuse

Just to share some historical data of past 10 years .
Plantantion share price on day closing high (H) in year 2012 were as below (adjusted for RI or BI if any)

Thplant. $2.45
Sop. $6.62
MHC. $1.46
Cepat. $1.18
Swkplt. $3.24
Taann. $4.50
Hsplant. $3.18
Bplant. $1.34
Note :Bplant H was in 2018. Listed in 2014.

CPO high was about $3,600 pmt in Mar 2012
CPO now reached almost $5,100 yesterday.
Cost of production may have increased by $200 pmt since 2012.
After factoring in the higher production cost , today 's CPO price is still about 35% higher than 2012.
On the contrary, share price for most of the plantantions companies are trading at about 30- 50% below the high in 2012. What a divergence!
I believe the share price increase yesterday is just the beginning of the recovery. Enjoy the recovery ride .

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-07 11:06 | Report Abuse

Just buy lah!

Farmland very safe mah!

Posted by novice2020 > 2021-10-07 20:57 | Report Abuse

Based on solid production data for September and high CPO prices for the past 3 months, Q3 results will be impressive!

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-08 09:01 | Report Abuse

Thank you Johnzhang sharing.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-08 12:52 | Report Abuse

I am pleased to share the projected full year (2021) EPS and the prospective PE of some of my favorite plantation counters. The Projected EPS is based on actual 1H + Q3+Q4. Q3 EPS can be estimated fairly accurately as Q3 avg CPO prices is known and production numbers are mostly available . I also make the assumption that Q4 EPS is same level as Q3 for reasons that ASP Q4 seem to be even higher and labourers for plantantion sector are coming in to maximize crop recovery. Given that Nov/Dec is usually seasonally lower crops, but the higher ASP and labour availability should be enough to offset that,
On above basis , the FY 2021 EPS and prospective PE based on yesterday closing share price as as follows:

Bplant. EPS 9.6sen , PE 7.1x
THplant. EPS 16.5sen , PE 4.4x
SOP. EPS 73.0sen. PE 5.3x
MHC. EPS 20.9sen. PE 4.5x
Cepat. EPS 13,9sen. PE 5.2x
Swkplt. EPS 48sen. PE 5.2x
Taaan. EPS 67.9sen PE 4.6x
Hsplant. EPS 23.6sen. PE 9.3X.

Historical PE for plantation counter is 15 to 25x
As such, plantation counters are seriously underappreciated by the market , especially amid poor KLSE sentiment.

Can 2021's earning be sustained in 2022?
You will be surprised!
Hope this perspective helpful for your investment decision.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2021-10-08 18:29 | Report Abuse

Price not moving up because syndicates not interested to push up palm oil counters. Will only shoot up if there's a takeover or merger plan.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-09 07:34 | Report Abuse

@Novice2020, there are few reasons why the huge disconnect between earning and stock price in KLSE for palm oil and others as well . In think the 3 key reasons are :

1. Our market suffers from lack of liquidity and buying interest.
Traditional big players like EPF , kWAP and TH have their plates very full and have faced huge withdrawal or redemption from depositors in 2020/2021 due to covid pendemic. EPF revealed very recently that 2021 withdrawal is about $40 bil higher than contribution received. Consequently EPF and other statutory funds have to sell down to raise cash to meet withdrawals/ redemption.
Likewise , mutual funds /unit trusts are facing the similar predicament when millions of people's income are affected. Retails investors ( mostly are punters / traders) are licking wound from glove and penny stocks plunge. Foreign funds had been selling down until Aug 2021. All these contributed to the extremely poor sentiment. People are very quick to take small profit under such market conditions.

2. The prolonged MCOs due to recently very high infection dampening the risk appetite of investors.

3. The incompetent and irresponsible analysts from various IB are dampening the sentiment of plantantion counters since last year . When CPO was at $3500 -$4,000 level at the very beginning of this year, all the foolish analysts forecasted from the air that CPO will plunge to $2,200 -$2,500 from Mar to Sept when production pick up. They continue to assigne extremely bearish view to the sector even today. They have been wrong.and very very wrong all the way ! They are too arrogant to admit their failure.

Questions we have to ask ourselves if the problems discussed above are fast abating? Is macro Environment improving? I think yes. Big turnaround is near the corner .

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-09 07:37 | Report Abuse

I have shared this in Thplant forum.. I guess it may be helpful for some of you here ;

Climate change and ESG Agenda is a double edged sword. Because of these Agenda , there has been zero new investment in palm oil sector in Malaysia for many years. Similarly for Indonesia, they Implemented a 3 year moratorium on new planting from 2019-2021. Global output for oil crops have been adversely affect by climate havoc . Climate issue such as flood, drought, temperature rise etc are not abating . How can oil crop production increase substantially in next few years ? Covid pandemic adds the pain. Shortages of energy ( the green LNG ) is worsening in China, India, England and Europe and the mandates to substitute fossil fuels with renewable biofuel further throw the supply and demand equation off balance . A 10% shortage is enough to caused 100% price spike for the commodity which largely explain the unbelievable spike in CPO price.
Additional supply will not come soon . These robust. CPO cycle will go on for next 3 years , not forgetting there will be price corrections along the way. Even an average price of $3,500 is good enough to make plantantion companies laughing to the banks, let alone price has surpassed $5,100.
Enjoy the ride.

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-11 10:54 | Report Abuse

CPO maintain at 4,000 - 4,500 for the next six months then real investors in plantation will enjoy good return, forget about those imcompetent IB analysts.

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-11 15:17 | Report Abuse

Luckily I manage to buy some more this morning at 95 sen.

Posted by risktoreward > 2021-10-11 16:16 | Report Abuse

Mhc gone crazy

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-11 16:50 | Report Abuse

Forecast EPS for FY 2021 is 20.9 sen. There is still great value .

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-12 10:12 | Report Abuse

Sleeping for so many years, finally waken up.

Posted by koowakzai > 2021-10-12 16:29 | Report Abuse

Profit taking. Sleep back now. Lol

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-13 09:54 | Report Abuse

During end of 2020, Investment banks said CPO price sure drop after April 2021. Today Sin Chew public that Investment banks said CPO price sure drop by 1st quarter of next year. But a few famous CPO traders said the price of CPO can sustain around 4,500. If that is truth then Plantation Companies will all huat lah.

Posted by VenFx > 2021-10-13 16:27 | Report Abuse

Y so hot in here ?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-13 19:11 | Report Abuse

https://newswav.com/A2110_jpISLI?s=A_Av4aKcQ
Very good news for Malaysian

Posted by KSLI > 2021-10-14 11:27 | Report Abuse

wonder if got chance to buy below RM 1?

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-15 09:06 | Report Abuse

Buy at RM1.03

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-15 09:13 | Report Abuse

By next month quarterly result announce, if EPS is 12 sen + then buying at rm1.03 or mr 0.95 is not much difference.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-15 09:52 | Report Abuse

Collect...kollect....kollect loh!

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-15 10:48 | Report Abuse

As a friendly reminder to new comer, NOT all plantation companies are making profit for the past few years. MHC is one of the plantation companies that is well manage and profitable for the past FIVE years.

Posted by keng88 > 2021-10-15 16:57 | Report Abuse

Today good close 1.03

Posted by koowakzai > 2021-10-16 17:08 | Report Abuse

MHC is the largest share holder of cepat wawasan. Holding 27.7%. Buy MHC and be rewarded.

Posted by LogicTradingAnalysis > 2021-10-17 08:41 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/logicdiary/2021-10-17-story-h1592736031-MHC_CPO_NEW_HIGH_RENEWABLE_ENERGY_COMBO_LIMIT_UP.jsp

going limit up soon

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-17 10:53 | Report Abuse

REMEMBER THE STORY OF GOD!

Reposted article: Calvin's Sunday Sharing: Bible Investment Ideas about Vege Oil from Prophet Elijah & Elisha

But the Bible also has many many investment ideas

And one of them is illustrated by the Example of Elisha's miracle of multiplying Oil for a poor Widow Woman when Creditors are after her two sons to be taken as slaves. An earlier example is Prophet Elijah telling another poor Widow woman & her child that her meager meal (flour) and little oil will multiply day by day till rain arrives.


Elijah & the Poor Widow Woman

8 Then the word of the Lord came to him, saying, 9 “Arise, go to Zarephath, which belongs to Sidon, and stay there; behold, I have commanded a widow there to provide food for you.” 10 So he arose and went to Zarephath, and when he came to the entrance of the city, behold, a widow was there gathering sticks; and he called to her and said, “Please get me a little water in a d]cup, so that I may drink.” 11 As she was going to get it, he called to her and said,

“Please bring me a piece of bread in your hand.” 12 But she said, “As the Lord your God lives, I have no food, only a handful of flour in the e]bowl and a little oil in the jar; and behold, I am gathering f]a few sticks so that I may go in and prepare it for me and my son, so that we may g]eat it and die.” 13 However, Elijah said to her, “Do not fear; go, do as you have said. Just make me a little bread loaf from h]it first and bring it out to me, and afterward you may make one for yourself and for your son. 14 For this is what the Lord, the God of Israel says: ‘The i]bowl of flour shall not be used up, nor shall the jar of oil become empty, until the day that the Lord provides rain on the

face of the earth.’” 15 So she went and did everything in accordance with the word of Elijah, and she and he and her household ate

for many days. 16 The [j]bowl of flour was not used up, nor did the jar of oil become empty, in accordance with the word of

the Lord which He spoke through Elijah.

Widow's Oil Multiplied

See how they borrowed as many empty vessels as possible to store the miraculous multiplying oil (the oil did not stop flowing until they stopped finding the last available Empty Oil Jar)

4 Now a woman of the wives of the sons of the prophets cried out to Elisha, saying, “Your servant my husband is dead, and you know that your servant feared the Lord; and the creditor has come to take my two children to be his slaves.” 2 So Elisha said to her, “What shall I do for you? Tell me, what do you have in the house?” And she said, “Your servant has nothing in the house

except a jar of oil.” 3 Then he said, “Go, [a]borrow containers [b]elsewhere for yourself, empty containers from all your neighbors—

do not get too few. 4 Then you shall come in and shut the door behind you and your sons, and pour into all these containers; and

you shall set aside what is full.”

5 So she left him and shut the door behind her and her sons; they began bringing the containers to her, and she poured the oil. 6 When the containers were full, she said to her son, “Bring me another container.” But he said to her, “There [c]are no more containers.” Then the oil stopped. 7 So she came and told the man of God. And he said, “Go, sell the oil and pay your debt, and you and your sons can live on the rest.”

The First is the provision of daily need. The 2nd is more than provision. It is abundantly enough to live on for their time (both the widow and her two sons)


“Go, sell the oil and pay your debt, and you and your sons can live on the rest.”


By reading these an idea came to us ?

What idea?

The idea of Palm oil Cpo prices now up more than 100% from Rm2,200 Meric Ton to over Rm4,400 Metric Ton. Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) also doubled from Rm350 per ton to over Rm700 per ton now

If Cpo & FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunches) are up so high then those Palm Oil Companies which own the Largest UPSTREAM Palm Oil Estates should benefit the most

Just as the Widow who find the Most Empty Vessels to Store the Flowing Oil

And these are the figures for Palm Oil Companies with various amounts of Palm Oil Trees

ANSWER ; JUST GO & SAPU PALMOIL SHARES....BUY MORE AS MUCH U CAN AFFORD & CAN FIND LOH!

IF POSSIBLE GO & BORROW & USE MARGIN LOH!

THIS IS HOW GOD ADVICE US HOW TO BE RICH FROM RAGS TO RICHEST MAH!

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-17 11:12 | Report Abuse

REMEMBER RAIDER ALWAYS SAVE U & NEVER CON U MAH!

LISTEN TO THE IMPORTANT ADVICE BY RAIDER LAH!


DO NOT LISTEN TO TAKECONULAR LOH!

RAIDER ADVICE U VERY SAFE MAH! BCOS OF HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH!

U WILL SLEEP WELL WITH SAFETY LOH!

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-17 11:17 | Report Abuse

The lesson here, is in order to protect yourself, u must buy cheap profitable plantation stocks, b4 hyper inflation hit us mah!

the Morale of the Story?

It teaches us to save up during good times to prepare for hard times like now when Covid 19 hits.

The bees gather nectar all summer because they know winter is approaching. The butterfly dance from flower to flower in summer and dies at the first frost of winter.

Now in the Book of Revelation (due to climate change in the end time) the Bible mentioned a time of great hyper inflation

Posted by takeconUlar > 2021-10-17 12:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2021-10-17 18:35 | Report Abuse

Long term value investment loh!

Big return on the way mah!

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-18 14:46 | Report Abuse

If the director is selling 18 million shares then I will pay attention to this issue.

Posted by Roy 8 > 2021-10-19 16:43 | Report Abuse

18-Oct-2021 Insider MR CHAN KAM LEONG (a company director) disposed 114,800 shares at 1.013 on 15-Oct-2021.

When a insider starts unloading his shares, it is very telling that the share price is likely to have peak. Think twice.

Posted by VenFx > 2021-10-20 10:44 | Report Abuse

A merely 114,800 shares compared wth its nosh, just like a bulu on its leg lah.
Sky not falling yet, dont kill yourself.

Posted by VenFx > 2021-10-20 10:45 | Report Abuse

qtr result dam good the solid merit to focus.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-20 14:24 | Report Abuse

The small cap and 2nd liners plantation counters are making good progress in their share price increase, But the big cap or counters where Sovereign funds holding significant stakes are having poor showing ! The sector overall lackluster performance (share price wise ) is predominantly due to the dampening effect of the fund continuous sell down despite robust earnings in this sector.

Counters where sovereign funds are not shareholders:
Bplant, THplant, MHC, cepat, etc

Counters with low shareholding from Sovereign funds:
Taann
HSplant
Sop
Swkpltn
For Taann and SOP, I think the funds shall complete the disposal by oct/Nov. Good chance for these counters to perform soon.

Counters where Sovereign funds hold substantially:
Simepltn.
IOI
Genp
Klk

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-20 14:29 | Report Abuse

Sovereign funds I referred to are EPF, KWAP etc

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-20 19:15 | Report Abuse

Today’s performance:
CPO + 2.5% $5303 (nov)

Counters without EPF and KWAP :
THplant +14.5%
Bplant. +4.9%
Mhc. +3.8%
Cepat. +1.3%

Big cap /counters with EPF/KWAP as shareholders:
Simepltn - 1.4%
IOI. - 0.74%
Genp. - 1.83%
Klk. +0.35%
Taann. - 2.74%
Swkpltn. Unchanged
SOP. +. 0.77%

I believe EPF and /or KWAP are still selling down today . Only local retailers and some corporates are absorbing the selling and that’s not enough to move price to reflect the robust fundamental of CPO .

Posted by MuttsInvestor > 2021-10-20 20:36 | Report Abuse

Once ...economy get back by Nov/Dec , EPF will have less "Pressure" to raise funds for withdrawals. PLUS ... EPF contributions would increased too . Thus making FUNDS available for EPF to make investment. So ...... ?????

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-10-21 06:28 | Report Abuse

@muttsinvestor, as in the news , EPF outsourced huge sum to external fund managers to handle. May be it is the external fund managers doing ?

Posted by keng88 > 2021-10-25 14:05 | Report Abuse

Cepat QR out good for MHC

Posted by Mrspeaker > 2021-10-26 09:28 | Report Abuse

MHC should see a good run up as it is undervalued when compared to other plantation counters

Posted by markgold > 2021-10-26 10:29 | Report Abuse

Mat salleh always create organisations to promote issue that seem is environment friendly or any topics to discredit Asia agricultural industry and behide the screen promote thier own agricultural produce eg Better Cotton Initiative (BCI) told all their members not to used Xinjiang cotton because of forced labour. But China government demand them to prove then NO PROOF provided, later found that BCI is a organisation sponsored and supported by US. By the way US is world biggest cotton producer. BCI failed to prove India and Bangalash have forced labour??? NEVER trust mat salleh that don't have a palm tree in their countries and told us what to do.