Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-01-06 16:55 | Report Abuse

Wait for the final quarterly results and the final dividend before making any decision.

Posted by looiting > 2022-01-06 17:44 | Report Abuse

Go Holland liou, waiting for cheaper

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-01-06 17:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Karma4444 > 2022-01-06 18:17 | Report Abuse

Tenaga 8.88

Posted by newguy0801 > 2022-01-06 18:28 | Report Abuse

Price to book ratio is already in line with market average. Price below this will be considered undervalued.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-01-06 18:31 | Report Abuse

Textbook analysis

Posted by newguy0801 > 2022-01-06 18:34 | Report Abuse

Ya, I am very new to the market. That's why I try to learn both FA and TA.

Posted by gomyinv > 2022-01-06 20:51 | Report Abuse

jia lat leow, it was EPF kept selling before, now is kumpulan wang keeps selling, very strange, why the major share holders non stop selling. Any body has any latest negative news about this company

Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2022-01-06 21:04 | Report Abuse

@gomyinv it is all cashflow constrain, not fundamentally driven. Never in the history of Malaysia since Merdeka EPF had to sell RM100 bil non stop in less than 2 years...

Meanwhile, rejoice. US Yields are spiking. HODLRs will have good entry price soon.

But please dont be simpletons and think in 1 level. Please if u wanna play this game, do us all the honour of thinking at least 3 levels.
How? Eg: 1. Fed minutes result in Yield spike -> global equities fall indiscriminately (high FCF, low FCF) -> which sectors benefit from high rates? -> impact of high rates on Global economies with high loans -> govt policy move -> which sectors will benefit?

Just sharing my thoughts

Posted by gomyinv > 2022-01-06 22:28 | Report Abuse

thanks for sharing, will observe the market movement like what you shared

Posted by Karma4444 > 2022-01-06 23:23 | Report Abuse

Another i-citra rm10000 coming soo

Posted by Runnerup > 2022-01-07 07:24 | Report Abuse

Today break RM 8.xx

Posted by planta > 2022-01-07 09:10 | Report Abuse

Very tempting price

Posted by KingKong_Doll > 2022-01-07 09:19 | Report Abuse

I have park 8.50 & RM8.00 for a month and will continue to park till end of the yr. See will it drop till that o not....hehe

Posted by investmalaysia618 > 2022-01-07 09:57 | Report Abuse

where got i-citra o

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-07 15:22 | Report Abuse

In the last two days we have had two of the IB "heavyweights" coming out with updated Tenaga reports and valuations. Today HLB retained their Rm13.60 valuation and Maybank lowered theirs to Rm9.55.....quite a staggering difference between both parties!!

Logic says that only one of them can be right or both of them are wrong.

Currently I think both of them are wrong but my price estimate of "current fair value" would lean slightly closer to Maybank, for the following reason:

The recent 3 quarter EPS are, 17.57 cents, 14.39 cents and 16.81 cents, giving a total of 48.77 cents for the last 3 quarters.

The tricky bit now is to estimate the EPS of the upcoming quarter to forecast the annualised EPS. Although I think revenue could be higher than the previous quarter the net profit could be lower due to higher input costs. If we take the average of the last 3 quarters (48.77/3= 16.25) and add that to the current reported figures we come with annualised EPS of 65.02 cents.

So if we assume their FY21 EPS is 65.02 and give a PE multiple of 16 ( from memory the 5 year Mean Av. is 15.8) then we can perhaps assume a current fair value of Rm10.40. A PE of 15 would = Rm9.75.

Key to the above estimate is the EPS of the upcoming quarterly and the assumption that it can be at least 16 cents.

Clearly, any higher valuation would depend on the rate of recovery in the economy and power usage.

Just my thoughts to encourage debate, cheers.

Posted by Lanmum > 2022-01-07 15:36 | Report Abuse

Wah. HLG Target price 07/01/2022 9.05 13.60 +4.55 (50.28%) BUY HLG

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-07 15:49 | Report Abuse

Yeah Lanmum, it seems over the top in the current situation. I'm assuming they are basing at least part of their valuation on things going back to pre Covid EPS (FY19 EPS = 80 cents), with a bit of meat added on for inflation and progressively increasing consumption.

I can't see that valuation happening anytime in 2022 :)

One can always dream, though ~~~~

Posted by xuxu > 2022-01-07 16:45 | Report Abuse

seldom have chance like this hehe

Posted by Lanmum > 2022-01-08 18:30 | Report Abuse

Agreed, stadble defensive dividend play ... i got few option to weigh in

Posted by lionel messi > 2022-01-09 10:24 | Report Abuse

Great to find you here TreeTop. What a great pit stop.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-09 17:45 | Report Abuse

Good onya, lm

Posted by wongck > 2022-01-09 21:20 | Report Abuse

https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2022/01/09/energy-minister-assures-2022-electricity-tariff-will-not-burden-malaysians/

Posted by Novice296 > 2022-01-10 10:54 | Report Abuse

top up a few last week, Rm11 is coming

Posted by lotsamoney > 2022-01-10 12:45 | Report Abuse

good entry point. buy before you regret it

Posted by Sam_iman > 2022-01-10 15:04 | Report Abuse

Hope the lowest of the low.. buying time. But to wait until year end for good dividend hah

Posted by M55555 > 2022-01-10 19:54 | Report Abuse

When EPF going to stop disposing?????

Posted by nixonteh85 > 2022-01-10 23:44 | Report Abuse

still below my previous selling point,
kwap/kwsp tolong dump lagi (before they dump, they may pump first)

Posted by nixonteh85 > 2022-01-10 23:45 | Report Abuse

8.88 testing

Posted by SHOB > 2022-01-11 13:41 | Report Abuse

holland is my trip

Posted by nikicheong > 2022-01-11 14:02 | Report Abuse

Will go below RM9, maybe even RM8. Regulatory overhang + ESG penalties mean there is very little buying interest.

Fundamentally though, TNB has a lot of value, much of which will be easily realised once the generation unit is spun off.

In the short term, there is price weakness. In the long term, there is deep value here.

Posted by limkokthye > 2022-01-11 15:13 | Report Abuse

https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/nasional/2022/01/910266/memo-pengeluaran-kwsp-kepada-pm-menerusi-najib

Posted by limkokthye > 2022-01-11 15:13 | Report Abuse

if 1 more i -citra come, tenaga keong gan liao

Posted by Sailangking > 2022-01-11 17:19 | Report Abuse

go further down ..@ 8........lai lai lai

Posted by xxxx > 2022-01-11 20:36 | Report Abuse

9 is cheap enough!

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2022-01-11 20:49 | Report Abuse

can enter?

Posted by kevinobc > 2022-01-11 23:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/01/11/high-global-coal-prices-putting-pressure-on-malaysia039s-power-sector

Posted by xxxx > 2022-01-12 00:30 | Report Abuse

Buy at 9.00

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-12 09:45 | Report Abuse

Technically this one is a tough call at the moment.

Needs to break 9.15 convincingly to attempt to move to 9.35 and 9.50.
Downside risk if it doesn't break 9.15 is 9.08 and 9.02.

Posted by New_Investor92 > 2022-01-13 09:57 | Report Abuse

Sorry to ask and i'm pretty new here ; apart of I3, nanyang and google where else do you guys browse the source/news about counter?

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-13 12:17 | Report Abuse

New_Investor92,
The Bursa website is a handy source of certain information and of course has all the company announcements for the stocks you hold. Being a shareholder you should always keep up to date with the recent company announcements, no matter how trivial some of them may seem.

klsescreener also has some handy pages and tools, charting, etc.

Best of luck with your investing.....tread carefully :)

Posted by MeMeMe > 2022-01-13 12:19 | Report Abuse

why TNB drops like gonan bankrupt, any bad news?

Posted by lionel messi > 2022-01-13 12:30 | Report Abuse

Your the man TreeTop. Better show him whether to buy or sell cum in case he's still a vir. Very technical :)

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-13 12:33 | Report Abuse

lol @lionel messi.....I'd wondered if you got my joke on the other thread :)

Good to see you are on the ball(s).

Have a good one, buddy.

Posted by SHOB > 2022-01-13 17:50 | Report Abuse

more ,and more

Posted by Wirajati > 2022-01-13 18:59 | Report Abuse

So when will tnb drop to below 9? Quite a while already. Itchy fingers...

Posted by M55555 > 2022-01-13 22:43 | Report Abuse

EPF still disposing. Will stop collecting for time being. Worry it will go below 9 very soon

Posted by looiting > 2022-01-14 01:42 | Report Abuse

Just close eyes continue to average down

Posted by KingKong_Doll > 2022-01-14 13:41 | Report Abuse

The current up and down is due to the ambiguity on RP3 loh. Only 3 scenarios can happen 1.

1. RP3 lower than RP2 - This 1 I think very unlikely la. Gomen wan TNB die meh
2. RP3 = RP2 - This 1 very likely. Coz status quo ma. Only TNB will earn less loh coz everything also price increase a'dy.
3. RP3 > RP2 - This 1 is also unlikely la....do this is a commit suicide for current gomen. Unless they increase for industry only but not domestic consumer but this also will have indirectly cause goods price to increase.

Additional factor is the coal supply for Indonesia loh. If not supply, need to pay more. Then profit down. Price cannot increase. Jiak lat loh.

Also, EPF continues selling to replenish its cash ma. Dividend sudah mau declare. Then the i-citra la, i-ni la, i -wo la.....all need money.

Finally cukai makmur will hit TNB this yr loh. Profit definitely over a million d.

With the above bad news, what is the good news then???
Actually, nothing and only thing is all about only affect this yr or worst case, till next year.
Buy share, if dun buy during bear market, buy in bull meh??? Say say oni......i also sit sideline and see see.....

Posted by KimSua > 2022-01-14 15:11 | Report Abuse

Only the Qtrly reports will show us the direction . How cost is maintain and the 230 mill divestiture of the Daharki power plant and better Q4 revenue will increase the cash flow for the qtr. Should be able to increase the eps to 20ish pending no further surprises on how cost is maintain. Wishful thinking of Revenue nearing 14 billion and PBT of above 1.2 B. But year end accounting can be very tricky , lots of impairments loss vs the divestiture.