Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-14 16:07 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/indonesias-recent-coal-export-ban-could-lead-higher-coal-prices-tnb-says-cgs-cimb

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-14 16:11 | Report Abuse

Re the above article, there has been a lot of discussion about who pays for the added fuel costs to Tenaga, so much so that my head spins when I try to think it through,

This is an interesting comment from the article..........."“We gather the RP3 paper was ready and waiting for approval from the Cabinet, which will be relooked at again after the flood situation has eased; the higher fuel costs for the period of July-December 2021 will likely be borne by the government and Kumpulan Wang Industri Elektrik fund,” it added."

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-14 16:42 | Report Abuse

There seems to be two cost debates whenever Tenaga is mentioned in this thread:

1. Who pays the rebate that customers receive?
2. Does Tenaga currently pay the full cost of higher fuel prices?

So, point1: I have always been under the understanding that the rebates related to the Covid meltdown were borne by the Government. Tenaga have always maintained that the rebates would be earnings neutral to them and the government have stated numerous times that they have budgeted for the rebates to be returned to Tenaga under one of those government grant schemes that came out during the start of Covid.

If I am wrong with that information, then it means all the articles and government quotes have also been wrong. I'd find that hard to believe!

Onto point 2: This is where my head starts to spin on my shoulders.
I have read nothing until recently about the government paying the extra fuel costs to Tenaga, although there have been "mentions" that the government has to assist due to the RP3 Guidelines.
Up until the above article I have never seen any clarity on the matter from either Tenaga or the government.

At the moment my thinking is that Tenaga have paid the extra fuel costs by the Quarter end.....however....those extra costs can be claimed back, meaning it MIGHT be in the Tenaga Receivables in the Quarterly/Annual Report.

As of now, this is my understanding on both points. I hope I'm right.

*head continues to spin*

Posted by spammerx > 2022-01-15 08:56 | Report Abuse

You are correct. But I don't understand why price got dump by the big fund

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-15 10:02 | Report Abuse

spammerx, it's only my opinion, so I'm not saying I'm right, but I think the current price is mainly due to over supply of stock.

Let's look at some numbers. Since the beginning of September last year EPF have sold around 85 million shares with an estimated value of around Rm800 million. Take a moment or two to think about that.....ONE seller only, selling approximately Rm800 million in just over 4 months.

I personally don't think they have been selling because they believe Tenaga is a bad investment but more to do with the cash they required for all the outgoings from public cash withdrawals due to the Covid situation.

Add to that a very weak and falling overall market during that time frame, you then have a situation where a multitude of other holders and those with margin calls adding to the selling volume as the price falls away.

Since the third week of September last year the stock has fallen around 10%, I just wonder how many other stocks could actually be that resilient and "only" lose 10% with the huge volume and value selling.

There were times in that period when EPF were selling 3+ million shares a day.....everyday! I have sometimes wondered if they had sold other majors instead of Tenaga, such as their bank stocks, if those banks would have been so resilient and only dropped 10%. I suspect they would have fallen more as there would eventually be less buying demand.....but that's just a guess on my behalf.

Also, put yourself in the position of a private Fund Manager, you wouldn't move the price higher to buy your stock when you know EPF have to sell, the more logical thing to do is let the price fall and pick up the EPF stock at cheaper prices. The usual supply and demand scenario.

I have noticed that EPF have resumed selling again recently, perhaps on the nod from the government that some new EPF withdrawals might be approved. Blame UMNO for this as they are pressuring to allow more to be taken out to supposedly "save the rakyat". Mere political grandstanding by them, in my opinion.

Like I said at the beginning, these are just my own personal thoughts but there is a bit of logic to it that MIGHT explain the current price woes.

Looking forward, I'm very keen to see the next quarterly in late February, as that could either confirm or dispel some of the myths we have been hearing lately about Tenaga's fuel cost issues.

Posted by soon2795 > 2022-01-16 07:00 | Report Abuse

https://www.wapcar.my/news/will-tnb-be-the-next-petronas-first-ev-charging-hub-in-malaysia-expected-by-2023-39633

Posted by Jamietee > 2022-01-16 17:49 | Report Abuse

Hi Treetopview, based on your comments by 07/01/2022 3:22 PM, may I know how you calculate out the fair value of RM10.40 & RM9.75 for FY21 EPS (RM65.02).
Thanks.

Posted by looiting > 2022-01-16 21:23 | Report Abuse

This stock has more downsides... Going to trap a lot of newbies

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-17 07:59 | Report Abuse

Jamietee, I thought the post was fairly clear with the workings (guesstimates).

Do you know what EPS means,....not being cheeky, but I see you are a new poster so might be new to market terms.

Posted by mokluhanj21 > 2022-01-17 08:06 | Report Abuse

will we finally see RM8.5?

Posted by lionel messi > 2022-01-17 08:20 | Report Abuse

HaHa TreeTop, you have become the de facto cram school teacher here. A lot of newbies and noobs are going to benefit from free tuition. Good on ya mate :)

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-17 08:22 | Report Abuse

Who said anything bout FREE, LM? :)
I'm working on my fee structure right now.....lol

Posted by Wirajati > 2022-01-17 16:04 | Report Abuse

Cukai makmur
Icitra
Epf selling
Rp3 still no green light
Coal price up
Flood damages

Still holds 9?
Yo my hand is very itchy now

Posted by lionel messi > 2022-01-17 16:21 | Report Abuse

Like they always say...it's all in the price baby. Cheers.

Posted by xiaoGinna6969 > 2022-01-17 19:17 | Report Abuse

EPF dumping TNB

Posted by swimvshark > 2022-01-18 09:07 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/939053

Posted by Sailangking > 2022-01-19 14:41 | Report Abuse

dumb more pls........

Posted by looiting > 2022-01-20 20:54 | Report Abuse

Many are still holding TNB for dividend. They don't really care what happen to the price

Posted by Marigold123 > 2022-01-21 07:53 | Report Abuse

acceptable for dividend yield for savings fund

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2022-01-21 21:40 | Report Abuse

I don't expect Tenaga to match its final dividend for year 2020. I am more than happy with just a 38 sen a share final dividend this time.

Posted by taktaumacammana > 2022-01-21 22:06 | Report Abuse

Yeah prudent i agree with you. Co. That always paid more than 100% of the net income is unhealthy.

Posted by lionel messi > 2022-01-22 10:41 | Report Abuse

They can afford to pay more because there's more where it came from.

Posted by Apastock > 2022-01-22 11:52 | Report Abuse

over, future down

Posted by Apastock > 2022-01-22 11:53 | Report Abuse

we call eat grass slowly

Posted by Iseeyoubuy > 2022-01-25 05:59 | Report Abuse

Waiting TNB as cheap as maybank lo..

Posted by limkokthye > 2022-01-25 11:18 | Report Abuse

tenaga will ex date dividen on march

Posted by Wirajati > 2022-01-25 14:16 | Report Abuse

Still strong at 9++, i cant wait no longer.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-25 15:06 | Report Abuse

Just keep in mind the current state of global and local markets before you start throwing your cash around. Last night the US market was a perfect example of how volatile the markets are, down 1,000 points at one stage (3%) before ending the day in positive territory.

The Fed are currently meeting this week with a statement after the market closes on Wednesday night US time, so expect interest rates to be the prime talking point. Add to that the Ukraine/ Russia story and the market can and will do anything.

With the KLCI currently at 1,505 there is probably at least a 50% possibility of it testing the 1,490/ 1,495 area on a bit of negative news.

Perhaps if you are thinking of buying, then just take a percentage of your allocation at these prices and watch for further developments. Not advice, just my personal thoughts in this current environment.

Posted by lionel messi > 2022-01-25 17:05 | Report Abuse

Sensible and prudent analysis as always TreeTop. Taking your guidance to the hilt, me is starting to slowly nipple at my favourite stocks. Cheap and delicious :))))

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-01-25 17:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-25 17:08 | Report Abuse

I think you might mean "nibble"............don't mention nipple too often as I might become too distracted :)

Thanks for the acknowledgement, LM. *thumbs up*

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-25 17:13 | Report Abuse

How soon, DickyMe.....next week, next month, next millennium?

Effin' eejit.

Posted by awesome20 > 2022-01-25 17:16 | Report Abuse

keep dreaming

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-01-25 17:17 | Report Abuse

You won't be around if it is next millennium.

Stay alert! Prepare for cheaper tickets.

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-01-25 17:18 | Report Abuse

Dreams have materialised in many ways if you cared to think calmly.

Do not let your emotion override.

Posted by Iseeyoubuy > 2022-01-25 17:20 | Report Abuse

RM9.00 is very possible this week

Posted by Risk Trader > 2022-01-25 17:29 | Report Abuse

All GLC start disposed their share holdings that mean they want to buy back at lowest price...TP around RM7.00 to RM8.00 in short term times.

Posted by lionel messi > 2022-01-26 08:11 | Report Abuse

I don't nibble. Nippling is way more satisfying TreeTop :)

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-26 09:59 | Report Abuse

We seem to have a similar "hobby", LM. It's much better than collecting stamps :)

US overnight markets still volatile and we remain directionless. We will know by this time tomorrow what action the Fed has taken regarding interest rates so until then I'll just sit back and watch the punters chase their dreams on the Malaysian market.

Current sentiment, not selling or buying.

Posted by planta > 2022-01-26 11:34 | Report Abuse

What’s the reason for the share price of a monopoly business keep dropping?

Posted by looiting > 2022-01-26 21:20 | Report Abuse

Because retailers are in it

Posted by DickyMe > 2022-01-27 09:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Novice296 > 2022-01-27 15:34 | Report Abuse

when the dividend announcement
coming?

Posted by VTrade > 2022-01-28 00:16 | Report Abuse

Dj nasdap banyak bertenaga lo

Posted by cascade > 2022-01-28 00:24 | Report Abuse

New electricity tariff rates starting 1/Feb, will it give a price push for TNB, let's see

Posted by okdoke > 2022-01-28 07:52 | Report Abuse

@Treetopview..mind to share.any target price to commence buying/topup on TNB shares?

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-28 08:39 | Report Abuse

@okdoke, that's a tough call.....it might be easier to ask me about the meaning of life :)
Global markets have been so volatile recently, especially this week, that it's created a very undecided market locally. An example,if you have followed the Dow or the S%P intraday movements everyday this week you will see huge swings as big as 600 or 1,000 points on the Dow each day. These are clearly huge intraday swings.

With that in mind, picking a price for a "blue chip" on the local market becomes a bit of a guess due to local sentiment, IMO. Add to that we are about to close our market next week for 2.5 days for CNY, where anything could happen globally while we are closed. So when we reopen it might be either solidly up or down as we play catch up.

So you can see where my head is regarding price predictions.....totally confused and undecided, lol.

With Tenaga, I have had a daily bid in at 9.02 since the beginning of January and never been hit, closest I got was when it hit 9.03. That bid was purely on a technical point of view. Clearly I was wrong as I haven't been hit but I'm not too fussed yet as I already hold. For me, the 9.02 to 9.08 price points were the area to currently buy if you MUST buy right now.

Technically, Tenaga is going nowhere (IMO) until it can clearly break 9.15 and close above that price point.

In recent days the price has moved intraday to 9.13 but I'm not sure if that might be EPF creating an interest so that they can sell into the rise. Volumes currently between 9.02 and 9.08 are very low, so it might be them tickling it to build up volume....who knows.

That's about the best guess I can give for now.....cheers.

Posted by lionel messi > 2022-01-28 09:20 | Report Abuse

Lol TreeTop, is that ultimately how the game is played....guessing? What abt those talk of don't time the market, dollar cost averaging, keep forever, etc? Guess those only apply to famous rich old man not investing in poor corporate governance, manipulated, incompetent policies and need to do national service Malaysian stocks. Cheers mate.

Posted by TreeTopView > 2022-01-28 09:31 | Report Abuse

lol @lionel messi, in this current market the only hope anyone can have is "guessing" what will happen in the short term. That's where technicals assist to gauge the mood.

Anyone who says right now, "this is what is going to happen" is either deluded or a fool :)

We've seen quite a few of them in the Bursa stock over the last 6 months, haven't we....lol We both know how that ended :)

Posted by lionel messi > 2022-01-28 09:48 | Report Abuse

I thought those delusional fools call themselves analysts, fund managers, financial planners, feng shui masters, ministers, policy makers, etc? I guess at the end of the day, all are just scammers in disguise. Just cari makan. Cheers.