Posted by brian3381 > 2021-05-10 09:31 | Report Abuse

where is ur rm3 rm5 rm10? hv u cut loss?

Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-05-10 10:13 | Report Abuse

Haha brain appeared
Left marky not yet
Come come.

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-05-10 11:06 | Report Abuse

hv u cut loss? hv u keep averaging down?

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-10 11:09 | Report Abuse

see at 1.80

Posted by james70 > 2021-05-10 11:18 | Report Abuse

Q4 2020(Actual) mining pretax profit = RM12.04M (tin price = RM76.87k/t)
Q1 2021(Actual) mining pretax profit = RM26.29M (tin price = RM100.11k/t)
Q2 2021(Estimate) mining pretax profit = RM37-40M (tin price = RM118.9k/t)
If tin hits US$40k/t, mining quarterly pretax profit = RM68M
If tin hits US$50k/t, mining quarterly pretax profit = RM92M

Posted by fruitcake > 2021-05-10 11:25 | Report Abuse

game over

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-05-10 11:48 | Report Abuse

james, u hv tooo many if if if... uncetainty

Posted by james70 > 2021-05-10 12:05 | Report Abuse

Tin is in critical supply deficit. There are very few tin deposits globally and if a new one is found, it will take years to get to mining.

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-05-10 13:50 | Report Abuse

james, great calculation...when Pulau Indah plant ready, your figures above need to multiply by 3....as the capacity will increased 2-3 times

Posted by Lawman > 2021-05-10 14:39 | Report Abuse

The recently announced PATMI of RM22.1 Million actually includes one of net gain of RM16 million coming mainly from reversal of inventories which were written down previously. If not for that net gain then the PATMI was only RM6.2 million despite so much increase in the tin price in Q1 21.

This company needs everything working 'perfectly' to make the real big bucks. New Pulau Indah TSL Furnace plant needs higher output volumes, better efficiency along with high tin prices to really see great earnings in the following quarters.

Posted by JSoang Ooi > 2021-05-10 15:35 | Report Abuse

Operator take profit. Hehe..

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-10 15:55 | Report Abuse

Is the tin smelting division got the inventory write down....not the tin mining division...

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-05-10 16:00 | Report Abuse

wow, got one off gain ka? tis tis tin px... highly sell lohhh

Posted by JSoang Ooi > 2021-05-10 16:23 | Report Abuse

Last qr also got reversal ma.. Brian u blind ka? Never looked into the qr? Haha.. only know how to talk sh*t here? Hahaha . Now I understood dy..

Posted by fruitcake > 2021-05-10 16:55 | Report Abuse

INI TIN KOSONG

Posted by al8800 > 2021-05-10 17:29 | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-05/iea-says-governments-should-consider-stockpiling-battery-metals

Hyperdrive
IEA Says Governments Should Consider Stockpiling Battery Metals
By Mark Burton and Javier Blas
May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM GMT+7

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-05-10 17:30 | Report Abuse

sei loh, without tis one off gain means 6m profit only ka. that pokay keep asking ppl buy wor? karma wil hit him

Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-05-10 20:04 | Report Abuse

Sei Loh, you mean karma hit your family because you have no shares and keep selling call?
Better be carefoo oh. When tin hit 3 ringgit, see tin will karma which one of your member
Cham Loh

Posted by JSoang Ooi > 2021-05-10 20:51 | Report Abuse

https://www.facebook.com/275223403133288/posts/780519959270294/?sfnsn=mo

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-10 21:17 | Report Abuse

Now MSC only trading at pe of 18x. So still cheap with scarcity of the mineral

Posted by JSoang Ooi > 2021-05-10 21:24 | Report Abuse

Haven't calculate forward pe bro..

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-05-10 21:37 | Report Abuse

Sei loh, iti pokay whole family ham kar chan loh

Posted by Lawman > 2021-05-10 22:08 | Report Abuse

@james70 Any comments to share regarding that less that 10% of MSC smelters input is from their own mines (from Annual Report 2019)? Majority of their tin needs to be imported from other non-operated mines. This should severely limit their profit levels despite much higher Tin prices yes/no?

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-11 06:25 | Report Abuse

High tin price will affect its profit margin for tin smelting division. For tin mining division of course high tin price will benefit it.

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2021-05-11 06:37 | Report Abuse

Get out when Citigroup is pumping commodities. Insiders and institutional owners already scaling out their positions. Sulfuric acid squeeze will affect smelters

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2021-05-11 06:38 | Report Abuse

if your entry price is low, don't worry. if you just entered, you should reduce exposure

Posted by Lawman > 2021-05-11 09:09 | Report Abuse

@Hafid Clear and thanks.

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-11 09:47 | Report Abuse

MSC good to enter when trade below rm2.00. but up to your risk.

Posted by james70 > 2021-05-11 10:56 | Report Abuse

@Lawman, MSC via their wholly owned subsidiary Rahman Hydraulic produces around 2,600t of tin concentrates per annum. Their production cost is really competitive at an all in sustainable cost (AISC) around US$10.1k despite their low grade ore. Market leader Alphamin with their 3.8% tin ore reserve are producing at US$12.2k AISC for their 10-12,000t/year.

FYI, when tin prices shoot up, the mining business will be the cash cow. I envisage with the green energy mandate, Paris agreement, demand for tin will continue to be high year on year.

Q4 2020(Actual) mining pretax profit = RM12.04M (tin price = RM76.87k/t)
Q1 2021(Actual) mining pretax profit = RM26.29M (tin price = RM100.11k/t)
Q2 2021(Estimate) mining pretax profit = RM37-40M (tin price = RM118.9k/t)
If tin hits US$40k/t, mining quarterly pretax profit = RM68M
If tin hits US$50k/t, mining quarterly pretax profit = RM92M

On your question regarding the tin concentrate processed by MSC Butterworth, the percentage is less than 10% as their refining capacity is quite sizeable around 40,000t/annum. Pulau Indah's capacity is much larger at 60,000t/annum.

The refining business is more of a tolling charge. Margins are not as handsome as mining of the tin ore. So I hope this answers your question.

Posted by james70 > 2021-05-11 11:10 | Report Abuse

Not sure if anyone noticed that MSC traded in Singapore has formed the cup and now the bottom of the handle. When the handle completes, the target is $1.12 or around RM3.50 in the immediate term.

Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-05-11 11:33 | Report Abuse

James
Yes
Cup handle
Handle finishing
Breakout will be $1.20 sgd
Means 3.60 ringgit

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-05-11 12:22 | Report Abuse

https://www.google.com/search?q=straits+trading+share+price&oq=straits+tra&aqs=chrome.2.0i355j46i175i199j0j69i57j0l6.13394j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Straits Trading is holding MSC a slightly above 50%, it is better to buy MSC directly which is 100% in Tin, while Straits Trading got a significant segment in Hotel which seriously impacted by Covid-19.

Posted by Lawman > 2021-05-11 12:35 | Report Abuse

@ james70 Thanks for sharing. You guys know your stuff!

As many shareholders and potential shareholders are hoping that the high Tin prices will significantly boost earnings. Earnings from tin mining seems to be rather limited due to mining of the tin ore for MSC accounts for <10% of total company output. So the real earnings needs to also come from cost efficiencies from the new plant along with higher volumes than the 30% capacity seen in Q1 2021 for the new plant.

Posted by ahbah > 2021-05-11 12:39 | Report Abuse

ALL COMMODITY counters ... BUY

Posted by dalpinia > 2021-05-11 12:47 | Report Abuse

MSC（5916）业绩、企业分析
不知道市场因为在这个月内会有较多的假期，我们看到 5 月份的套利活动继 3、4 月份至今加剧了 – 不过，在红彤彤的市场中，有部分的公司业绩以及股价是双双超越市场预期的；那就是大宗商品相关的公司，就好比种植股、钢铁股或运输等等。
但是，我们看到市场上鲜少有投资者讨论锡（“Tin”）的相关企业；要知道从去年 5 月份至今，锡矿石的价格已翻倍，而同时从中被冶炼成品的锡也在 52 周内从 USD 15,297.00 / MT 左右上涨至今天（10/05/2021）的 USD 33,562.00 / MT，呈现了高达 119.39% 的涨幅。而本地这家与锡有关的公司 – MSC 股价却在近期回调，与其亮眼的业绩表现呈现出反差。为了确认 MSC 是已反映价值还是依然有成长空间，我们在本文中将会浅谈锡的应用、MSC 的业务背景以及该公司的业绩表现等。
1. 锡领域浅短分享
锡，因为其较其他金属具有更柔软、低熔点、高粘性、重塑性强以及无毒等特性是早期工业最广泛使用的金属类型之一；其主要功用在于制成焊锡 – 而焊锡在大家最喜欢的电子工业、家电、汽车领域等等都具有非常重要的地位。
比如说，锡可以加工成为焊料（“Solder“）；熟悉半导体业务的读者可能见过用于 BGA 封装中 ”Solder Ball“ 的词汇，由于其金属特性，在加工后作为芯片封装以及连接电路板是目前半导体业务内较为 ”热门“ 封装方式 – 从这点看来，锡的需求量也在逐步提升中。
作为参考，我国的出口量在三月份激增 31.0% 的主要因素之一就是电子产品，尤其是半导体相关的产品在在这期间呈现强劲的需求量；如智能设备、汽车等暴涨的需求间接也带动了锡方面的需求。
以细分产品用处而言，在 2020 年内焊料占了总锡消耗的 49%、化学品占了 18%、镀锡板占了 12%、电池产品为 7%、合金属为 9% 以及其他用处为 9%。
2. MSC 企业背景分析
回到 MSC 本身而言，MSC 的业务包括了锡的开采并加工为锡精矿（“Tin-In Concentrates“）的上游业务以及将锡精矿冶炼为精锡（”Refined Tin“）；即通常为锡锭（”Tin Ingot“）的中游业务。据我们了解，目前 MSC是马来西亚最大的锡矿开采商；在 2004 年前公司完成 Rahman Hydraulic Tin（“RHT”）的收购前，公司的锡精矿开采的产量为 750 MT / 年 – 而在收购后至今为止，在 2020 年公司的锡精矿则上升到 2,350 MT / 年。
不过，在今年来 – 即 FY 2017、FY 2018、FY 2019 以及 FY 2020 而言，公司的锡精矿开采则分别是 2,226、2,355、2,288 以及 2,350。虽然乍看之下并无明显的增长，但是考虑到 2020 年公司的业务部分被疫情影响却依然可以达到 2,350 MT / 年的产量，可见公司的锡精矿生产效率有所提高。
而资深的读者必然会问到下一个问题 – 既然是矿业的公司，MSC 的锡矿还能有多少产量？若以先有的的主要 的 Main Pit 而言，剩余的产量大约为 26,687 MT、而未开发的 Western Slope 根据查询，预计也有潜在的 21,716 MT 的锡矿。不过，目前既然公司还未开发 Western Slope，并且也暂时没有实际的产量作为参考，我们就不多作评估了。但可以确认的话，公司开采锡精矿以目前的锡矿量而言，确实足以支撑公司多个财政年。
其实以锡矿而言，公司在 Sg. Lembing 锡矿场的土方工程以及基础的挖矿设施也已经准备好，目前也已经开始挖矿的活动，但暂时来说平均每天的产量应该只有 0.1 MT – 0.2 MT 之间，但若是展开实际的生产的话，有望达到 1,200 MT / 年的产量。
以锡冶炼的业务而言，公司是全球第三大的企业，其排名是在 Yunnan Tin 以及 PT Timah。其冶炼的产量分别为 80,000 MT / 年以及 54,000 MT / 年，而 MSC 的冶炼产量则是 40,000 MT / 年；而在 2020 年内的实际产量则分别为 74,800 MT、45,700 MT 以及 22,325 MT。不过，公司在引进了新的 ISASMELT 技术后，未来产量可达 60,000 MT – 但公司在 4 月 26 日提及公司的产量可能不及疫情前的水平，而锡冶炼是公司最大的营收贡献业务，因此接下来的营收或许会被影响。
顺带一提，目前公司在 Pulau Indah 新的厂房的使用率只有 30% 左右公司，MSC 也预计在年末会将其在 Butterworth的厂房的产线运到 Pulau Indah 上，而完成的时间点则预计是在 2021 年末或 2022 年初 – 据我们所知，若是完成后因为新的厂房整合除了会提高冶炼成的锡锭产量，同时也会降低公司的成本 – 就以劳工人数而言，新的厂房只需要 300 人，但旧的厂房则是需要 550 人。
3. MSC 业绩分析
伴随着锡价涨到了 10 年的高点，公司在该季度也交出了相当亮眼的业绩。但不知道是否是否不满意公司的业绩 – 公司的股价在今天单日下跌了 9.02%；虽然市场也有传言提到 MSC 内有人受到 COVID-19 的感染，但更可能的是全国 MCO 的消息传出，配合上部分的投资者套利之下导致公司股价大幅下滑。
先不罗嗦，我们先客观的分析公司的业绩表现。
• 公司营业额在该季度（“FY 2021 Q1”）的营业额为 RM 275.9 Million；对比 FY 2020 Q1 的 RM 205.3 Million 以及 FY 2020 Q4 的 RM 232.6 Million 分别增长了 34.38% 以及 18.63%。
• 管理层在季报内提到，公司的业绩增长主要来自于更高的锡冶炼数量以及锡价格的上涨；作为比较，锡的平均价格在 2021 Q1 为 RM 100,115 / MT（可转换成美元计算），而 FY 2020 Q1 锡的平均价格为 RM 69,675 / MT、FY 2020 Q4 的锡平均价格则是 RM 76,870 / MT。
• 以净利而言，公司的净利在该季度为 RM 22.1 Million；对比 FY 2020 Q1 的 RM 13.2 Million 亏损业绩改善了 267.74%、而对比 FY 2020 Q4 的 RM 15.9 Million 净利则是增长了 39.39%。
• 公司的净利率由于随着锡价格涨跌而出现非常大的变化，因此参考价值不大。
• 除了因锡价格以及产量提高导致公司净收入改善之外，公司其实也有通过旗下控股 40.0% 的 Redring Solder (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.（“RSMSB”）以及控股 30.0% 的 KM Resources, INC（“KRI”）联营公司的盈利贡献；在该季度内，公司的联营公司盈利贡献为 RM 1.0 Million – 而 FY 2020 Q1 以及 FY 2020 Q4 则分别是 RM 0.3 Million 以及 RM 4.1 Million 的亏损。
• 因此，仔细看的话若是提出营收贡献不大的联营公司盈利贡献的话，其实 MSC 的盈利在该季度增长比想象中小。
• 从经营现金流来看，公司在该季度净经营收入为 RM 1.0 Million；而 FY 2020 Q1 则是 RM 12.2 Million 左右，不过这是鉴于公司的存货以及应收账款增加，除非全年依然呈现低经营现金流的情况，否则的话实属正常。
• 公司在该季度并无宣布任何股息。
4. 总结
从多个角度来看，MSC 确实会持续受惠于锡价格的增长 – 而下个季度如无意外的话，伴随着在近期锡价格超过 USD 30,000 MT 来看，MSC 的业绩仍然有望持续成长。以前景而言，除了半导体领域需要焊锡之外，目前市场风风火火的电动车领域所需要到的锂电池其实也需要用到锡。因此，公司在某个角度来说可以说是受惠于半导体以及汽车领域的成长 – 而锡价格的上涨也证明了这一点。
以过去平均 5 年的数据来看，MSC 的平均 P/E 估值为 28.0 倍 – 而目前加上公司新的业绩后，MSC 的 P/E 估值以 RM 2.420 的价格计算则是 18.83 倍。剩余的就交给大家自行判断了。

Posted by Jimmy Lim > 2021-05-11 18:54 | Report Abuse

hoot9e sailang as low as u can!
singapore kia said MSC 5916 smelly smelly must hit SGD 3.000 only puas hati

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-12 06:12 | Report Abuse

For our tin mining operations, our efforts are directed towards enhancing
overall mining productivity, while exploring new tin deposits at the Group’s
Rahman Hydraulic Tin mine in Klian Intan. At the same time, we are exploring
potential joint venture arrangements to further expand mining activities.”

Moving forward, tin consumption is expected to continue its strong run postpandemic.
In the long run, the outlook of tin looks promising with prospects
in the electronics and energy technologies as more tin applications are being
discovered. With the Group’s ongoing initiatives, we are poised to capture
arising opportunities in this growing market.

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-12 06:12 | Report Abuse

ABOUT MALAYSIA SMELTING CORPORATION BERHAD
The MSC Group is currently one of the world's leading integrated producers
of tin metal and tin based products and a global leader in custom tin smelting
since 1887. MSC which is a subsidiary of The Straits Trading Company Limited
of Singapore is listed both on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia and the Main
Board of Singapore Exchange.

Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-05-12 07:31 | Report Abuse

Ultimately it will go beyond 3 ringgit
The long elusive 3 ringgit .

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-05-12 07:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by awxm2021 > 2021-05-12 08:45 | Report Abuse

brainless

Posted by james70 > 2021-05-14 20:07 | Report Abuse

Tin insider just tweeted the following:

1289t draw on Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse stocks today. General market feeling is that this was for local consumption and not for export to the West. If so, and Chinese market is now short, then next leg higher on prices is imminent.

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-14 20:27 | Report Abuse

Tin price is down. So MSC I think fv is at current level. The best entry now is at rm1.80

Posted by lotuseater > 2021-05-16 14:11 | Report Abuse

oh please, spare me this again.. every time when the tin price corrects a little bit, someone will come out of the woods and repeat the same old stuff.

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-16 15:05 | Report Abuse

Tin price corrected by 6%

Posted by gemfinder > 2021-05-16 15:07 | Report Abuse

Oredi fuly valued la. Got one waterfish said wil go to 5 8 10 wor

Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-05-16 20:53 | Report Abuse

Haha Lotus
Ya lo

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2021-05-17 06:23 | Report Abuse

Inflation fears are wildly exaggerated

Posted by Hafid > 2021-05-17 10:06 | Report Abuse

SEE AT 1.80

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-05-17 10:14 | Report Abuse

so how>? waterfish? oredi cut loss or keep averaging down?