In 2020, the AISC was only around USD12k-14k/t. Oil price was also a lot lower then. Taking into account the substantial rise of oil, using the latest Q3'21 AISC is prudent. Hence the profit sensitivity to the tin price alone is not that accurate.
Alphamin shares have also hit 15 year high. MSC owns around 18m shares of this DRC tin miner which is generating incredible profits. Their reserve ore is at 3% tin.
Do look at Metals X Ltd listed in the ASX. Giant cup forming from 2018. Soon to be mining Area 5 which is very high grade. Produces around 4-5kt of tin (50% share) at an AISC of AUD22k/t. Easily a AUD1 share. I think it will go to AUD3 when tin hits AUD100k/t.
MSC is creating that handle = the flat n compact run way the next 1 hour GC or 2 hour = could be the LIFT OFF pt. n once it could go > 4.00 = MSC should be in CORNERED.CONDITION for the fast n furious flying journey...
NB: MSC a potential $8 to 10 billion mkt cap stock in ev.metal, Tin.
Tin has just surpassed USD44.4k/t today on the LME. I wonder when will it reach USD50k/t on the LME? I think by June is not unrealistic now that tin price at the Shanghai exchange is at US$53.3k/t.
MSC is very likely to trade around the RM5-6 range after the Feb quarterly results. Bear in mind, the Dec quarterly(Q4'21) tin price average is USD37.5k/t. With the same production profile as Q3'21, this new tin price will contribute an additional RM13M to the bottom line for Q1'22 with a USD43k/t average.
james70: only 13M? 3Q21 results already $20+M when they only operated maybe 1 month cos July and Aug under MCO. I think 4Q21 will be closer to $80M, while 1Q22 will be $120M~$150M, no?
AISC = all in sustainable cost. This is the terminology used in mining to capture cost related to the operations and development of the mining property which is recurrent.
NP. I hope you are right in your forecast. This will make more fund managers wake up to the potential of MSC and jump onto the MSC train which is about to leave the station for double digit prices.
demand > supply so make tin price surge so much in recently. if future demand supply is balance, tin price will back to normal. why i bought for this company because new tin smelting process is good in ESG
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
james70
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Posted by james70 > 2022-02-08 15:59 | Report Abuse
In 2020, the AISC was only around USD12k-14k/t. Oil price was also a lot lower then. Taking into account the substantial rise of oil, using the latest Q3'21 AISC is prudent. Hence the profit sensitivity to the tin price alone is not that accurate.