Fundamentally still intact. Probably selling pressure from bimb shareholder on free shares. Good time to add. My guess this will hover 3.6ish for awhile. Buy on the way down sell on the way up.
As per my calculation, if based on forward eps 36 x 16 pe, the fair value in 2022 around rm 5.76 . now consider undervalue as share price only 3.66 ......
Look at the current chart, it has dropped to the lowest since April 2020. this is the right time to accumulate shares for medium term investment. cash in hand is OK and net current asset is healthy. Fundamentals are intact. Retained profit & general reserves are OK too. yearly profit is in positive position. Recently EPF is the only greater seller, the rest remains unchanged. Not body can expect to buy at the lowest. Bad market is a good opportunity for you to purchase at lower price. The above is my personal opinion for my own reference only. hahaha, happy trading.
Worst sentiment was during announcements of lockdown dropped to 3.2. Now no news and vaccination almost 80% with reopening economy, very hard to go back 3.2. I could be wrong but it if does ‘ buy when its on sale’. My take it will hover at 3.5 thereabouts.
If EPF is still selling, I don't think the price can go up. But it's good for long term investor cause they can collect cheap when the price drop further.
Syarikat Takaful CEO Mohamed Hassan to leave in March 2022, Retailers throwing free shares.. Told you to wait..
Please remember how CIMB was pressed until RM2.8 last year. Although I did say that you can try to collect at RM3.2, BUT if they really want to press it down, press to the next support of RM2.1 is NOT IMPOSSIBLE. So please dont flame me if you try at RM3.2, but got pressed to RM2.1.
Just sharing my personal opinion after getting my CIMB and AMBANK pressed last year (AMBANK still being pressed this year LOL). Not buying/selling advice
Many pro here hahaha... Lowest is around 3.2 and that is recession last year and KLCI at 1260...what can worse than last year? Now drop due to bank islam have to comply with BNM rules and hav to distribute the share, which epf got alot of takaful share and epf have to dispose it due to portfolio rebalancing.. The company business profit and structure remain the same.. Share price is undervalue, i collected at 3.60..if drop to 3.3 will collect more.. Good opportunity for long term investors
Beware of the possible dead cat rebound next week, there were a lot FB lives last Friday. They could be trapped at penthouse, waiting to dispose.
If you really want to buy, you can try your luck at 3.2, not when it is floating in the middle of resistance and support. Again, if they really want to press it down, press to the next support of RM2.1 is NOT IMPOSSIBLE. So please dont flame me if you try at RM3.2, but it falls to RM2.1 later.
Price falling without a clear reason, means something bad new in behind which retailers don't know but institute player knew in advance so they run first.
Actually there are some fundamental reasons behind it 1. CEO Mohamed Hassan to leave in March 2022 2. FRS17 is projected to reduce the book value by 29% and the profit by 16% in FY2023
If u hv no faith in this counter, very simple. Don’t buy loi. For the investors who believed in the foundamental in this counter. ROE is > 23%. For 5 consecutive year 2016 to now. Where to find??????
Fundamentally, the profit has been growing 10% to 15 % annually without FAILED from RM140 mil in 2014 to RM 362mil in 2020, expecting the trend will continues with the majority muslim population in malaysia and strong tied up with banks & LPPSA & Gov. Comapany is siting with very healthy insurance reserve surplus of more than RM1.2bil ....... Do more research and make your investment decision based on JUSTIFICATIONS AND FACTS, instead of Pasar gossips...
Foundamental business is still the same. No changes. Just KWSP is selling Bec of portfolio rebalancing. This present opportunity for value investors to accumulate the shares at low price. Muslim population is increasing in Malaysia. This means more business for takaful.
Do u all read the announcements in KLSE screener??? KWSP is selling maybank, petronas chemical etc too. This means they are just doing portfolio restructuring. Anyway I am investing in this counter. Sui Sui foundamentals .
FRS17 reduces the book value by 28.5%. To me, that's a serious issue. It instantly raises P/B ratio, which is the primary valuation for insurance companies. Also, PAT and dividend will be reduced by 16%. This is also an issue.
Change in CEO might also be an issue (although there's a possibility that the next CEO will do an even greater job).
FRS17 full details is not released by BNM. There is no CASH flow impact on the company, there maybe some accounting profit if there is any. To my understanding, there will be minimum impact on the takaful, most of the insurance company has been preparing for the FRS17 years back instructed by regulatory body.
The impact on Takaful will be less less impact than expected, as Takaful is sitting on RM 1.2bil insurance reserve surplus which can be utilized..
Market is dynamic, there are so many players and opinions... No wrong or right.. Happy Investing...
Talking about P/B ratio, Takaful is at its 5 years low of 2.08 compares to its 5 years high of 4.68 , so what is the fear of MRS 17 reduces its book value ? This is another good time to buy a fundamentally strong shares of ROE mid to high 20s for the last 5 years. Takaful is a market leader in Islamic insurance in Malaysia. Potential is huge. The company would not collapse because its good CEO is leaving.
The 1.2bil surplus cant be touched and will just stay there forever, or to offset future losses. It will donate to charity once STMB closed down. In any circumstances, that 1.2bil will never ever belong to shareholders.
There is no cash flow impact, yes, and impact to takaful is small. The key impact on STMB is because the heavy focus on single premium policies. Reduce profit by 16%? That is so optimistic. IFRS17 requires spread of profit to entire policy term. Typically MRTA is like 30+ years, considering the reducing balance, profit allocated to Y1, at best should only be around 15%. Assume 80/20 split on day1 gain/recurring profit, the reduction in profit should be at the range of 65%+.
EPF can be wrong as well, ultimately people making the call behind can be as young as just a fresh graduate. Even top analyst will not understand IFRS17 as well, and to be honest even among actuarial people, majority only have understanding of IFRS17 at preliminary level.
It depends on the type of insurance policy. Takaful don't just sell MRTA, they have comprehensive range eg. general, PA, medical & life. 70% of revenue contributed by Family segment. Don't have further stats breakdown of each policy. However, as per latest report from UOB KayHian, management had guided the impact to be roughly 15%.
General business only ~10% of total profit. For life business, in 1H21, credit related contributions (MRTT including LPPSA MRTT and personal financing) made up a significant 75.2% of the total gross contributions for the group’s family takaful business.
IFRS17/MFRS17 is finalized, there will be some details up for debates but the overall impacts will not change much. Yes, cashflow the same, business the same, EV the same. If people value STMB with EV, then valuation will not change. But too bad, no one value STMB with EV, not even sure if STMB calculate EV on their end. As long as local analysts still using traditional P/B or PE to value STMB, IFRS17 will definitely impact the valuation.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Colgate
7,608 posts
Posted by Colgate > 2021-11-07 07:39 | Report Abuse
the advantage is THEY ARE MAJORITY , MONOPOLY THE CHIPS in this counter