Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2014-02-14 09:17 | Report Abuse

gark, please inform us ah when u sell .. kikiki

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 09:21 | Report Abuse

Last time LTH selling sending YTLP share to the lowest 1.78, lets see what will happen these time.

I still believe current selling is temporary, once sbb reach 10% and after 28 Feb, the 6 month period away from first batch 28 Aug cancellation last year, YTLP will at least opt for another 3.5% or 250m share second batch treasury cancellation.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2014-02-14 09:38 | Report Abuse

1.78 is the critical support level

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 10:01 | Report Abuse

Whether or not is critical support largely depend on seller.....if seller too rush to selloff, sbb can't absorb it fast due to limitation.....sbb now almost reaching maximum quota 10% currently and need to wait after 28 Feb to cancel and restart sbb

Posted by gark > 2014-02-14 10:06 | Report Abuse

fat cat.. you gotta wait a long time then.. kikikikiki

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 10:15 | Report Abuse

YTLP-WB have more than 4.5 year lifespan and currently trading at almost 0 premium. If any of the good news set in for YTLP, like turnaround Yes broadband/project 3B/acquire new accretive assets etc. Every 10% increase in YTLP share price, implying 30% increase in wb. Therefore, if average YTLP increase share price 10% in next 4year or RM 2.60 (recover back to share price last 2010 before venture into Yes broadband), wb should theoretically soear more han double current value to above RM 1.30 or about 25% return pa

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 10:33 | Report Abuse

if as what you have explained, actually ytlp don't have to wait till 28/2 to cancel the treasury shares. ytlp can opt to cancel anytime now with lesser % like 3.5% then it will not hit the 2% stake increase in 6 months, no 'GO' will be triggered. right ?

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 10:43 | Report Abuse

YTLP already cancel 3.5% stake in 38 Aug 2013, increase Yeoh family control stake to about 2%, which mean within 6 month period or until 28 Feb , treasury cannot cancel anymore. The next permissible cancellation only can be done after 28 Feb, which could possible explain reason sbb slow down buyback and drag time till 28 Feb before it reach maximum quota 10% and cancel part of its likely another 3.5% of less to restart sbb back again.

Nevertheless, above is my personal observation and possible explanation..... the fact only can be confrim after 28 Feb.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 10:48 | Report Abuse

3.5% cancelled only increase the stake to 1.75% if Yeoh own 50% stake, not hitting 2% yet. maybe still can afford to cancel some loose %.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 10:50 | Report Abuse

anyhow, need not rush. just do the normal process to cancel the ideal % as they have nothing to lose as it is even better for them to collect at lower price.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 10:57 | Report Abuse

Yeoh family control about 58% last year 2012 and recent annual report show it already control 59.9%, 2013 (stake change reflect of its treasury cancellation on 28 Aug)

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 10:57 | Report Abuse

leek, 60sen is here, u grab any ?

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 11:02 | Report Abuse

in other word, the permissible % to cancel will be less than 3.5%, they can't go with full 10% cancellation as this will immediately increase stake to about 16%.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 11:03 | Report Abuse

small sbb just now..

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 11:04 | Report Abuse

Annual report 2012 vs. 2013

YTL corp: 44.89% vs. 46.72%
Connerstone: 6.35% vs. 6.61%
Yeoh & son: 3.73% vs. 3.88%
Bara Aktif: 2.08% vs. 2.13%
Yeoh individual member 0.54% vs. 0.58%

The overall change in stake in about 2.37%, more than 2%, but after take into consideration dilution if about 8% warrant conversion i, the figure is about 2% increase.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 11:07 | Report Abuse

should treat all different individual parties right ?
if lump all as Yeoh's family then it will be 2%, if each as individual party then it is < 2%, the 'Go' should not in the picture anymore.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 11:11 | Report Abuse

Its depend on how SC and bursa treat take over code, it could court 2% based either effective control stake or lump all relate connect parties control together in 2% calculation.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 11:16 | Report Abuse

anyway immaterial, so long cancellation is done at the end of the day.
if ytlp opt to distribute back then it is to the benefit of shareholders as well, shares dividend will not trigger 'Go' i presume. :p because this will have 2% increase intantly.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 11:20 | Report Abuse

Treasury cancel or share dividend all will lead increase it stake holding of Yeoh family, should treat same impact. However, either YTLP wan to opt share dividend or straight cancellation, the maximum is about 3.5% after 28 Feb.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 11:26 | Report Abuse

this left no way to ytlp to stick to what is laid out by SC.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 11:26 | Report Abuse

Sorry, there is small different in share dividend compared with treasury cancellation, the former will distribute back share volume, increase back total volume, lead to smaller impact on effective increase in Yeoh stake while later decrease share volume, and impact on Yeoh stake is higher.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 11:30 | Report Abuse

who knows, ytl may take ytlp private.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 11:31 | Report Abuse

this will cease all speculation. hahaha

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 11:33 | Report Abuse

To seek SC and Bursa waiver, need to take at least 3 week time, troublesome. YTLP sbb should continue just go as its plan, drag sbb until 28 Feb before its reach 10%. Although offer little ability to support now, but the main culprit is seller too rush to selloff, can't wait little longer. However, just treat it as temporary setback.

I'll stay invested.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 11:35 | Report Abuse

i opt to stop temporary, wait till it reached 10% first.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 11:43 | Report Abuse

Yeoh is very smart, it will rather wait until their stake reach 70% before opt to privatize YTLP. It is currently make use of YTLP own capital to continue sbb and effectively increase its stake gradually.

I predict, if YTLP opt to cancel second 3.5% treasury stake after 28 Feb, their stake will increase by another 2% to about 62%. then continue sbb again from remaining 6.5% to back to 10% in 6 month time and cancel third batch another 3.5% after 28 Aug 2014, increase stake 2% again to 64%, continue sbb again from 6.5% to 10%, then only straight cancel all these 10% treasury stake, boosting Yeoh to more than 70% by end of these year, trigger take over code, privatize YTLP by end of these year.

Posted by leek > 2014-02-14 12:22 | Report Abuse

Last entry 0.60.... will watch now.... next buying is 0.55 and 0.50 if it goes down

Posted by alveygwee > 2014-02-14 12:27 | Report Abuse

nice analysis hng33

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 12:28 | Report Abuse

Now, sbb still have ability to buyback 3m share/day before it reach 10% quota until 28 Feb. Thereafter, lets hope my assumption is confirm that treasury only can cancel due to 6 month period for 2 % stake limit to avoid take over code.

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 15:43 | Report Abuse

Lets hope the seller also can staggering their selling volume, drag on to allow sbb to absorb their volume.

Posted by smartly > 2014-02-14 16:15 | Report Abuse

hope closed at 1.81. :)

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 16:28 | Report Abuse

It will rely on seller whether still rush wan to selloff big volume

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-14 17:42 | Report Abuse

Bought back 1.7m share, 61.5% of today total volume, range 1.78-1.80, increase 0.02% stake, cumulative treasury at 9.64%

Posted by leek > 2014-02-15 07:57 | Report Abuse

Big boys are meeting sultan this weekend....

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-15 09:28 | Report Abuse

So long there is no official news on award of 3B project, imply that the fight between YTLP vs 1MDB still ongoing ........

Francis Yeoh + former PM + DPM + Sultan vs. PM

Posted by rlch > 2014-02-15 09:35 | Report Abuse

How can 1MDB want everything in power business. If PM want to show he is fair to Malaysian, he should award 3B project to YTL Power as YTL Power is bidding at lower cost.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2014-02-15 09:48 | Report Abuse

price will probably go down or stagnant for the next 2 weeks... gark.. please inform us when u sell... kikiki

Posted by rlch > 2014-02-15 09:54 | Report Abuse

If YTL Power cannot give good dividend they must reward shareholder with share dividend consistently so that EPF can buy their share again.
EPF must feel disappointed with the sudden drop in dividend hence the continuous selling. Privatisation? No idea. Treasury share cancellation? Shareholders don't feel they are rewarded like received cash or extra share.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2014-02-15 10:02 | Report Abuse

best scenario is more sbb and cancellation to boast eps, yes4g stop bleeding and produce a lot of money, more lucrative acquisition , and a policy of 50% dividend payout... kikikiki

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-15 10:23 | Report Abuse

1MDB is brainchild of PM under 1 Malaysia slogan and is chair by PM himself. PM through Gov fund initial capital RM 5bilion to 1MDB to start shopping spree, acquire Power asset....as collateral to issue bond....until debt laden....plan IPO these year to gain fresh capital from market....but need growth factor...3B....but face strong competitor YTLP, which also have strong political link with former PM + DPM (former MB Johor and 1BeatriNet award)+ is JV with Sultan Johor.....fighting is still ongoing.

YTLP already spend RM 16bilion to acquire total RM 942m share (assume average cost RM 1.70), which if opt for cash dividend give rise as much as 23sen/share or 13% net yield. However, YTLP opt to continue sbb rather than cash dividend to effective utilize company capital to increase share value and gradually increase Yeoh control stake, which may eventually lead to privatization by end of these year or when their control stake reach more than 70%.

Remark: Sbb and cancellation benefit share value hold by shareholder (long term impact) vs. cash dividend payout by company to benefit shareholder (short term impact)

Posted by titus > 2014-02-16 21:16 | Report Abuse

hng, if they yeoh were to privatise ytlp, what price do you think he will offer? will minority get short change like we seen some of the company taken private but minority was taken for a ride with a ridiculous offer.

Posted by leek > 2014-02-17 09:40 | Report Abuse

Active volume....

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-17 11:14 | Report Abuse

titus,

If privatize, possible by end of these year or after Yeoh control more than 70% YTLP through continuous sbb, it will likely through share swap to YTL at certain ratio and reference price. This is because through share swap, Yeoh family need no single sen and yet still retain control enlarge YTL after privatize YTLP. As take over is earning accretive to YTL, it is likely YTL share surge beyond the reference price by either market force or through YTL own sbb, which indirectly increase offer price for YTLP

Posted by alveygwee > 2014-02-17 12:10 | Report Abuse

based on wat u analysis, mean ytlp can be accumulate. haha

Posted by titus > 2014-02-17 14:18 | Report Abuse

hi hng,
Thanks and then in your opinion which will be a better buy. If i understand correctly, it will be ytl.

Posted by alveygwee > 2014-02-17 14:29 | Report Abuse

do some research also b4 u buy will be better.... forum is just for u to collect info..hahah am i right?

Posted by alveygwee > 2014-02-17 14:30 | Report Abuse

but ytlp also have healty financial position, can keep for long term...

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2014-02-17 14:31 | Report Abuse

i think gark going to sell soon... kikiki

Posted by hng33 > 2014-02-17 14:41 | Report Abuse

titus

If privatize via share swap, both will benefit, as long as the acquisition is earning is accretive to YTL, share price will boost like what happen when YTL take over YTL cement in 2011, in which its share price surge above its reference price, indirect also increase attractiveness of YTL cement value

Posted by gark > 2014-02-17 14:55 | Report Abuse

not yet fat cat... not yet... ;)