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Money122
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Posted by Money122 > 2019-07-02 01:22 | Report Abuse
oward Gold's No-Nonsense Investing
Opinion: The trade war is over — and China won
By Howard Gold
Published: July 1, 2019 11:08 a.m. ET
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Trump-Xi agreement shows the president won’t go to the wall to fundamentally change the U.S.’s trade relationship with China
AFP/Getty Images
China President Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting.
The great U.S.-China trade war is all over but the shouting.
In a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume trade talks that had broken down in May.
Trump will lift some restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.’s ability to do business with U.S. companies and will postpone tariffs he threatened to impose on an additional $300 billion annually in Chinese imports. In exchange, Xi agreed China will buy more U.S. agricultural products. Details will be spelled out later.
This deal — the second time President Trump gave in to China’s demands and ended restrictions on a major Chinese technology company that had been accused of threatening U.S. national interests — effectively marks the end of Trump’s trade war with China.
Why? Because it shows the president won’t go to the wall to fundamentally change the U.S.’s trade relationship with the world’s second-biggest economy. The Chinese president has clearly calculated his American counterpart is unwilling to do anything that would threaten his support among key constituencies, like farmers, as the 2020 election looms. (President Trump also has backed down big time from his bellicose talk on North Korea and now appears ready to tacitly accept Pyongyang as a nuclear power.)
That means, I believe, that the current tariffs will continue but no new ones will be imposed. China will buy more U.S. agricultural products — although some U.S. farmers will find other countries already have muscled them out of the Chinese market. We may well see a bigger deal in coming months, which the Dealmaker-in-Chief will undoubtedly proclaim a great victory, cheered on by his hard-core supporters
But China will not rein in its state-owned enterprises. It will not curtail its Made in China 2025 initiatives in cutting-edge technologies like robotics, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence. Global supply chains will remain largely intact and thousands of manufacturing jobs will not flow back to U.S. shores. China under President for Life Xi will continue to become the most advanced surveillance state the world has ever seen, and it will keep hundreds of thousands of Uighur Muslims from Xinjiang in “re-education” camps for as long as it wishes.
Wall Street has long expected a truce in which the U.S. agreed not to add new tariffs to the $250 billion a year on which it now imposes a 25% levy, but the big concessions on Huawei were clearly not in the market. That should give this bull market a new shot of adrenaline. I expect the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.53% and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.32% (which opened with big gains Monday morning) to continue to hit new highs in coming weeks.