Posted by chankp7010 > 2017-06-06 11:23 | Report Abuse

Yistock please write something about TGuan latest QR. If TGuan QR is poor, fair or good, we can at least do some judgment based on what you have to say. Thank you in advance.

Posted by YiStock > 2017-06-06 11:27 | Report Abuse

Hi Chan, How do you think latest Q report?

Posted by chankp7010 > Jun 6, 2017 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

Yistock please write something about TGuan latest QR. If TGuan QR is poor, fair or good, we can at least do some judgment based on what you have to say. Thank you in advance.

Posted by KCLiew > 2017-06-06 11:30 | Report Abuse

Yistock please write something about TGuan latest QR + 1

Posted by kai8994 > 2017-06-06 11:53 | Report Abuse

I think the management has talked a lot about the outlook, the new prod lines will only start in September. And Kenanga has upgraded their TP to RM5+ after the latest quarterly result.

The management has already done what they can in expanding the business operation. No body likes to wait, but that's exactly what it requires now :)

Posted by YiStock > 2017-06-06 12:02 | Report Abuse

Well agreed. The usual norm of raw mat price fluctuation (as it happened again in Q1 2017), forex, and once in a while impairment are things that affecting Thong Guan bottom line since many many years back and will continue to do so in future.

While the management continue to moderate or minimize those factors, the real solid organic growth has kicked in.

2nd nano line will probably start contributing in Q3 17 to further push the gross and net margin.

"No body likes to wait,but that's exactly what it requires now :)"kai8994


Posted by kai8994 > Jun 6, 2017 11:53 AM | Report Abuse

I think the management has talked a lot about the outlook, the new prod lines will only start in September. And Kenanga has upgraded their TP to RM5+ after the latest quarterly result.

The management has already done what they can in expanding the business operation. No body likes to wait, but that's exactly what it requires now :)

Posted by Chan SauWei > 2017-06-06 12:57 | Report Abuse

Just collect if price drop... accumulating time now if have excess fund

Posted by chankp7010 > 2017-06-06 15:59 | Report Abuse

Thank you Yistock. I really appreciate your quick response. Other than raw material price up, forex losses, impairment for receivables (once in a while) you feel that TGuan is doing well and progressing according to plans. What about the organic food with China as a partner? Do you feel comfortable and profitable in years to come?

Posted by Invest1188 > 2017-06-07 00:45 | Report Abuse

Tguan growth story is limited or a big over

Posted by Invest1188 > 2017-06-07 00:48 | Report Abuse

Share will price gain will be limited unless the company more generous on dividend, if not the PE will be forever low at 10, look at scgm, tomypak and bpplas, all have high PE because they distribute more than 50 pct profit as dividend, like it or not fund manager like this stock, dun waste time with tguan

Posted by riskabsorber > 2017-06-07 11:33 | Report Abuse

Hi YiStock, just want to ask about your opinion. Does it make sense for such good company - making constant profit, decent dividend and growth but the share price can stagnant for more than a year? All this while the management (older generation) hesitate to give much publicity (invest talk) to the investors. However, the management (younger generation) keep promoting through invest talk, newspaper to boost the confidence of the shareholders. Just would like to hear your points. Thank you.

Posted by YiStock > 2017-06-07 19:42 | Report Abuse

Chankp, the organic noodle is a new venture and expansion on production has just completed. Management guidancre is to take 3 years to spin it off. While waiting for meaningful numbers to kick in, the focus will still very much on plastic segment. My opinion.

Posted by YiStock > 2017-06-07 19:52 | Report Abuse

Riskabsorber, for tguan case, quite obvious liquidity is serious problem. Management well aware of it. Perhaps they are waiting for right timing. I would suggest let the expert do the thinking. In this case, the tguan management. We are not expert, theoretically.

Q2 17 i hope forex is not a big issue to them.

Posted by riskabsorber > 2017-06-08 11:57 | Report Abuse

Thanks YiStock, however, is liquidity really matters? KESM only have 40mil shares but the share price is like skyrocketing. For us, I believe you're the expert and your opinion can influence most of the inactive shareholders.

Posted by Victor Tan > 2017-06-08 22:35 | Report Abuse

Tguan will go up, it is just a matter of time. Don't time your profits. This is also partly a warrant issue.

Posted by riskabsorber > 2017-06-13 12:08 | Report Abuse

During this bullish market and yet Tguan's share price can still drop for few days though 2cents to 5 cents at times. Very clear cut that the insiders are selling and plan to buy back after the quarterly result announcement.

Posted by Chan SauWei > 2017-06-13 12:35 | Report Abuse

Rip

Posted by chankp7010 > 2017-06-13 16:00 | Report Abuse

Judging from TGuan share price movements, TGuan has failed to attract potential investors and cannot retain existing shareholders. The Board and management are trying so hard with their investors' public relation and publicity to promote TGuan. The results so far confirm that it will not bear fruit if the bottom line has not improved.

Posted by fattycat > 2017-06-13 17:14 | Report Abuse

aiyaya >< drop so much today @@

Posted by ltg100y > 2017-06-13 17:14 | Report Abuse

Agree with chankp7010. I believe the net profit not increase compare to Q1 2016 and consecutive 2 quarters drop make the shareholders disappointed and sell their shares. If check further, in Q1 2016 report, the company mention they has started 33 layer nano stretch film, 5 layer blown film but 1 year later why their profit still the same? Are this mean that nano-stretch film not as good as the management said before?

Posted by HuatRex > 2017-06-13 21:50 | Report Abuse

Downtrend stock. Luckily I sold off before qr

Posted by michaelwong > 2017-06-13 22:46 | Report Abuse

Luckily I sold off too if not I will be loosing more . Consider quite lucky without loosing the time when sold.

Posted by riskabsorber > 2017-06-14 12:01 | Report Abuse

The size of the machine for nano stretch film is smaller than the traditional type of blown film, but it will cost more expensive too. The main reason for this inactive share price movement is still go back to the basic, which is the raw material price movement. Nano stretch film can give higher margin or cost efficiency, but the accelerated depreciation of old assets also will deplete the margin. Q1 2017's result is quite decent, lower free cash flow due to high capex (13mil) in plastic sector. Capex in food sector only 400k which is too low in expanding the organic food to China. As Yistock mentioned, the board still focusing on the plastic segment rather than food segment. If you are expecting this counter to move to RM5 in this year, the only possible is to announce corporate exercise in August/November. If only based on the profit growth, might be another 2 years. This is just my point of view. Thank you.

Posted by longkanginvestor > 2017-06-14 12:24 | Report Abuse

Slow and steady counter.I have been holding for few years.This is the kind of counter that u can buy and dun need to monitor all the time

Posted by YiStock > 2017-06-14 13:03 | Report Abuse

For KESM case, I just check on the chart, let use 23 May 2016 price RM 4.08 as based. It surged to RM 15 on 5 Jun 2017. A total of 267% net gain. T

The earning for past 5 quarters is 7.6 mil --> 8.0 mil --> 10.0 mil --> 9.9 mil --> 10.6 mil...from 7.6 mil surged to 10.6 mil, is only about 39% (7.6 mil vs 10.6mil)

If you noticed here, a 39% surge in earning propel 267% surged in share price? Obviously a big buyer willing to pay much higher PE for KESM. One simple reason i can think of is the 40 mil outstanding shares. It is super LIGHT WEIGHT TO OWNED. Most importantly, before I want to buy, i need to have cash, and i need to have inner connection.

My understanding can be right, can be wrong.

I also hope Tguan can skyrocketing, but unfortunately we have not meet the rich guy who willing to buy at whatever PE and earning now, but we do have one rich old man keep disposing. Hopefully, when he sold all, then the share price will move upward.


Posted by riskabsorber > Jun 8, 2017 11:57 AM | Report Abuse

Thanks YiStock, however, is liquidity really matters? KESM only have 40mil shares but the share price is like skyrocketing. For us, I believe you're the expert and your opinion can influence most of the inactive shareholders.

Posted by riskabsorber > 2017-06-14 13:55 | Report Abuse

The rich old man left 430k shares in end of March and I believe he has successfully sold it above 4.40 in April/May.

Thanks for your summary on KESM, the earning for past 4 quarters almost 90sen, PE still reasonably at 17. I should not compare KESM with Tguan as both are different in term of management/industry. Sorry to cause confusion. Let's find a like for like comparison. Can you suggest which counter can compare to Tguan in similar sector ?

Posted by kai8994 > 2017-06-14 16:13 | Report Abuse

Similar players in this sector are BP Plastic, SLP, or Scientex (has property division).

In term of share price I believe none of them (except Scientex) had performed well for the past one year.

Posted by Chan SauWei > 2017-06-15 14:21 | Report Abuse

Nice company exercise for Sunway... Wish tguan also follow the step

Posted by riskabsorber > 2017-06-15 15:22 | Report Abuse

Sunway corporate exercise is as per planned. They wait until the warrant expired/fully subscribed. As I mentioned before, Tguan still has other derivatives (Warrant and Loan Stock), is not easy for them to get the perfect timing to announce the corporate exercise. Bonus issue will affect the existing warrant price/exercise price.

Posted by mjsim1990 > 2017-06-19 18:07 | Report Abuse

I don't believe the old man is disposing, but rather the downtrend is caused by dilution of share due to constant conversion of loan stock by directors. Directors have been converting millions and millions of shares nonstop

Posted by michaelwong > 2017-06-20 18:01 | Report Abuse

Getting lower and lower of the day....... luckily sold all the mother shares with minimum profits.
Now still holding some warrants all buying above 3.16 average down. Got to dump inside the refrigerator to freeze it for how long no one can predict.

Posted by Chan SauWei > 2017-06-21 12:50 | Report Abuse

Suspect next QR may not so good....USD drop 5-8% if compare last quarter

Posted by LionKingKong > 2017-06-21 16:11 | Report Abuse

Anyone knows TGUAN has how much more warrant and ICULS?

Posted by ltg100y > 2017-06-21 16:55 | Report Abuse

Really disappointed, regret did not sell it before quarterly result...
anyone who still look good at Tguan, pls buy in more to support the price, thanks in advance!!!

Posted by Chan SauWei > 2017-06-21 17:30 | Report Abuse

I had sold out all around 4.40++..will buy back later...

Posted by longkanginvestor > 2017-06-21 18:13 | Report Abuse

Start to nibble again :)

Posted by George888 > 2017-06-22 17:20 | Report Abuse

2018 might be Tguan year as the company should fully commission all machineries by Dec 2017. I like the company double digit sales growth. Though I take note that its profits didn't grow, but sooner or later the company will find ways to turn higher sales > higher profits. Just a matter of time.

With sales to increase further in 2018, I expect its profits to grow too. Hopefully with some corporate exercise then.

Posted by khuen > 2017-06-22 20:56 | Report Abuse

Bought today, hope the expansion and bonus issue will be taken place as promised.

Posted by longkanginvestor > 2017-06-23 16:30 | Report Abuse

Long term tguan never disappoint

Posted by Davidl > 2017-06-24 20:22 | Report Abuse

Yes Q4 shall b doing good but not Q3.

Posted by kai8994 > 2017-07-03 09:57 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/thong-guan-sees-rm1b-revenue-2020

The management is assuring the shareholders again..

Posted by riskabsorber > 2017-07-03 11:03 | Report Abuse

The Director is "leaking out" too much info. You can interpret it as good/bad. Good is the management is pretty transparent. Bad is when the management unable to perform exactly what they are mentioned, it will disappoint the investors. The article focused on revenue/capex for the next few years. Besides, looking for M&A in Vietnam or Malaysia is interesting and something new to us. Better than keep on promising bonus issue/corporate exercise.

Posted by Chong Jiunn Hau > 2017-07-03 12:15 | Report Abuse

20 years expansion plan... I am not sure I will hold this stock for that long.

10 years estimation:
1. add 1 x 33 layer nano line per 2 years, 100mil per line. 10 years = 5 lines x 100m x 80% = 800m
2. add 16 x 5 layer blown film lines in next 10 years, 36 m per line, 16 x 36m x 80% = 460m
3. add 13 x PVC wrap lines by 2026 (turnover per line not disclosed)
4. expansion of new market
If the plan can be fulfilled, with 80% production capacity, the total revenue could reach 2.5bil (current 766m + expansion) by 2027?
if net profit margin at 7%, annual net profit will be 175m, which is almost triple to the current NP... scary...

Posted by LionKingKong > 2017-07-05 13:28 | Report Abuse

What is holding the price now is warrant conversion

Posted by longkanginvestor > 2017-07-05 19:22 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/126776.jsp

Posted by kerahkeng > 2017-07-06 11:47 | Report Abuse

Anyone got idea???

THONG GUAN INDUSTRIES BERHAD - MITI OFFER

a) Jumlah Saham Khas : 2,733,750 unit
b) Harga Par : RM 0.00 seunit
d) Aktiviti Utama Syarikat : INVESTMENT HOLDING AND TRADING OF PLASTIC AND OTHER COMMODITY PRODUCTS
e) Penyenaraian Saham : Pasaran Utama
f) Bank Penasihat : RHB INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD
g) Pegawai untuk Dihubungi : 1. Lee Beng Yew No. Tel : 03-9280 5315 E-mel : lee.beng.yew@rhbgroup.com
2. Evelyn Kong No Tel : 03-9280 5263 E-mel : evelyn.kong@rhbgroup.com
3. See I-Jean No Tel : 03-9280 5264 E-mel : seeijean@rhbgroup.com
h) No. Telefon :
i) No. Faks :
j) Tarikh Tutup Permohonan : 14/07/2017

Posted by ykloh > 2017-07-06 22:15 | Report Abuse

20 year plan !!!
How on earth can plan so far ahead ?

Posted by Rukai > 2017-07-07 12:57 | Report Abuse

why the miti thingy all of a sudden?

Posted by Chan SauWei > 2017-07-10 17:37 | Report Abuse

Omg....tguan drop and drop again....

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2017-07-10 18:55 | Report Abuse

bought more @ 4.14

Posted by riskabsorber > 2017-07-11 09:03 | Report Abuse

Please be prepared to wait at 4.