Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-27 15:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-27 15:20 | Report Abuse

Problem is, choivo still thinks RCECAP is a good undervalued business because it has 30% profit margins, spews out 2 dividend payments per year, has good roe, good gearing.

He doesn't think of RCECAP in terms of a going business.

I won't teach you how to evaluate QL, but I will give you FREE hints on business fundamentals on RCECAP by asking you these few questions that you should think hard on.

1. RCECAP enjoys good profits, but how far can it increase revenue every year for the new 10-20 years? Where does the revenue come from?
2. To increase the client base, where does the challenge come from? What will the percentage of NPL look like with bigger loan base? What guaranteed returns are we looking at if we have to do write offs with no collateral base? How much of a hit can RCECAP absorb? Are payments of government officials guaranteed? Or is it like 2007 when housing prices were guaranteed to go up forever?
3. Is RCECAP the market leader? If not, is MBSB the market leader? What is the returns of comps? What is the NPL performance? What are their returns like? What is the possibility of RCECAP outperforming the market leader? Why?
4. Is RCECAP using their share options responsibly with shareholders in mind? Are they treating share options as free cash?
5. Is the management trustworthy? Why are the ambank kids running the show? Why is the asset Management not profitable?
6. Why is the pe perpetually so low? Is it because the market is undervaluing RCECAP? Why is every fund manager undervaluing RCECAP? What is the reasoning behind them not investing in RCECAP despite the performance? How high is the business risk that it would be valued so low? Are they blind? Are you blind?

Choivo. My advice to you. Before going into technicals and fundamentals, think of investment like buying a piece of a business. Understand the business risk, business model and future growth possibilities first.

First rule of investment: don't lose money.
Second rule of investment: don't lose money.
3rd rule of investment: don't be choivo capital.

Once you understand that, you will understand why I buy, bank and use only public bank. Quality of assets is everything. Savings and deposits is the closest thing to risk free business you can find.

Just because RCECAP is making money on risky assets( and if you think borrowing money to government officials is guaranteed returns then you are as stupid as stupid does) doesn't mean you won't be swimming naked when the tide goes out.

QL on the other hand is built on quality assets with guaranteed supply and demand. That's why it's pe50. And that's why your RCECAP is pe 5.

I rest my case on your business acumen.

Posted by cend0l > 2018-12-27 15:25 | Report Abuse

Sigh Jon Chivo again. Is he jobless or something? Young man should be working. Not cheating people. Shame..

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-27 15:33 | Report Abuse

10154899906070843 > Dec 27, 2018 03:20 PM | Report Abuse

Problem is, choivo still thinks RCECAP
===========

wow.....all my 3 years writings in a few paragraphs.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-28 02:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-28 08:43 | Report Abuse

Funny thing is, the so called chia family just bought 4 million shares in QL from 21st ones when people lost faith in QL. Is that a sign that they are confident in QL business prospects? Or are they still selling according to choivo? I wish they were still selling so I can collect more, but 50k shares is my limit this quarter.

Slow and steady wins the race.

Posted by Haw Liao > 2018-12-28 08:50 | Report Abuse

this one definitely a buy...save haven, like gold and yen

Posted by warchest > 2018-12-28 09:52 | Report Abuse

10154899906070843 i agreed with u on your points. That's real Investments. In fact for many years, i had invested in companies like Dutch Lady, Nestle, Ajinomoto and QL for my dad's fund since 2009 with the last top-up back end of 2017. It was boring but the return many times more than my own small to mid cap fund.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-28 10:04 | Report Abuse

Family Mart near my place is doing very well...always crowded with teenagers ...another very successful business .....egg prices doing very well....

very well run organisation, very satisfied and happy management staffs, very generous with training.......overseas training, MBA courses, the works for their staff......

Posted by tah16600 > 2018-12-28 10:04 | Report Abuse

Look like QL is on the downtrend.

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2018-12-28 10:09 | Report Abuse

Interesting to read...hehe

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-28 11:00 | Report Abuse

Small advice for you warchest, I started investing in 1997, back then still using remiser with their 10% brokerage fees. After the crash I also first started buying those small/midcap with small success. But after Bursa stopped shortselling activities, I notice the market here become very weird and hard to analyze properly. Basically you cannot punish bad companies, you can only reward good companies. So after I changed my investing policy ( I lost money for 6 years), to only buying companies with growing or good moats and great management, I started to make money.

My summary is for bursa market since 2000 to make money, you need to be willing to pay fair or slightly overvalued prices for great companies. All the others small/midcap with good people/lowdebt etc, a lot of them are value trap that is being manipulated by cartel. They put out announcements and fudge figures to make you think it's a Warren buffet buy, then they push the price up and make you excited. Then when you think you can wait longer to gain more, they pull the carpet from your feet. In 20 years of investments I have seen these trends repeat over and over.

Only in Malaysia Bursa because it's a small cap stock exchange. The only time I make ten-baggers, is when I pay fair price ( what I believe to be) got great companies do u get rewarded properly long term. Like QL. Like TOPGLOV. Like public bank. Like YINSON. Those give you ten-baggers.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-28 11:07 | Report Abuse

I remember in 2011 when ql did their rights issue, all the find managers was telling me ql is overvalued, not a good buy etc etc. Same thing with Nestle, forever overvalued.
But if knew 2018 results for QL, would you have bet the farm in 2011? It's undervalued then compared to now. But if course hind sight us everything.

Tah16600- downtrend is just a technical word when Mr market buys and sells shares. If you really want to know the meaning of the word downtrend, take a look at the quarterly revenue and sales of QL, is that a downtrend? Or did they just have the best quarter revenue ever in ql ?

Posted by rajachulan > 2018-12-28 11:08 | Report Abuse

great piece of advise! i cant agree more!

retail investor, please read!
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10154899906070843 > Dec 28, 2018 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

Small advice for you warchest, I started investing in 1997, back then still using remiser with their 10% brokerage fees. After the crash I also first started buying those small/midcap with small success. But after Bursa stopped shortselling activities, I notice the market here become very weird and hard to analyze properly. Basically you cannot punish bad companies, you can only reward good companies. So after I changed my investing policy ( I lost money for 6 years), to only buying companies with growing or good moats and great management, I started to make money.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-28 11:12 | Report Abuse

yes yinson is a jewel among the OG pariahs....at least from management angle......

yinson got good management and safe and sound policies......

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-28 11:14 | Report Abuse

For me, why traders buy or sell shares I really don't know and don't care. All I know is in 2009 when I first started buying ql, the quarter they sold 300 million worth of products. In 2018 quarter they sold 900 million worth of product. If that is not a most I don't know what is. I've been consistently buying some 2009 every quarter until today rain or shine. Now with multiple stock splits etc I have 2 m shares, not much but I'm just a old uncle working for other people. For me as long as the story doesn't change for ql, and no competitors come in to fight their surumi monopoly, I'll continue buying whether or not this brothers sell it buy etc.

Posted by tah16600 > 2018-12-28 11:20 | Report Abuse

No doubt QL is a great company ,but it present price is quite high lol !

Posted by enigmatic > 2018-12-28 11:20 | Report Abuse

Wise words frm experienced 10154899906070843. One question. Would you sell when a good comapny share is very overvalued or continue topping up?

Posted by tah16600 > 2018-12-28 11:41 | Report Abuse

It just take one or two great guys from top 30 shareholders to throw, that is the end of QL bull run,

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-28 11:45 | Report Abuse

Enigmatic, how do you defined overvalued? I sell only when the story changes. For me I will sell when
a. either the founder and family stop going to site, pass away and being so hands on in the business. Did you know the ql founder has a PHD in agriculture field?
b. People stop eating eggs, chicken, palm oil, seafood. Or if a cheaper source becomes more acceptable readily available.
c. They start giving out big share options to directors in lieau of salary or start spending willy nilly on bad companies. I almost did that with TOPGLOV when they bought the company last year. But I forgave them and moved on.
d. My son need to go to university and fails to get his scholarship. So I have to pay for his education.

Posted by tah16600 > 2018-12-28 12:05 | Report Abuse

The Chia family holding more than 60% of QL . So they can throw some say 10 to 20% at this high price , they still controlling d company. When d price at d very low ,they can slowly buy back. This is what is happening in Bursa. When the company got cash flow problem ,they will issue right issue or worst still issue private share.This will depress d share further.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-28 12:10 | Report Abuse

why would they throw for no reason? If the business is good if they throw isn't it even better for retail investors like you and me to collect ?

but anyway, tah16600, lets try a test. Because i ran into the same problem when i first bought the stock in 2009.

it is 2018, the pe is 50, share price is around 6, 8-15% revenue growth every quarter ,low dividend but high investments in new equipment to maintain their monopoly.

in 2009, how much do you think the PE was? revenue in the 4th quarter was 300m, 7-8% net profit,even with the big investments in factories. I wont tell you, you need to believe it for yourself, why i bought then.

Here was my reasoning, with that growth, the PE was indeed high. But if they stopped investing in new equipment every year, collected the dividend and handed it out to investors? How much would the PE and dividend yield be then?

How much would the effective PE be?

Secret is to look at cash flows and generation of FCF. Because profits and earnings are only after you minus all your investments and expenses.

Now, fast forward to 2017, they spend 338 million ringgit on new equipment, new factories, staff training, amortisation etc etc. all this to maintain their moat and the right to be called number 1 biggest surumi supplier in asia (not to mention egg king).

How many other competitors can fight on the same ground, much less do the same investment to push QL out. lay hong? not even close.

now, what is the demand for seafood processed meat, chicken, eggs, palm oil? in 5, 10, 20 years from now? how big is that market demand?

now you tell me if buy now overvalued or undervalued? I will tell you in 10 years time, which undervalued stock you bought that performed better than QL. Maybe ill regret then. but hindsight is always 20/20

Posted by striker888 > 2018-12-28 12:39 | Report Abuse

10154899906070843 2 m shares make you many millions. Congrats on a good investment.

Posted by tah16600 > 2018-12-28 12:50 | Report Abuse

It is fine to keep long if u have strong holding power, But for me , I will throw at the current price knowing that d PE is high .Will collect back when the PE is low .

Posted by striker888 > 2018-12-28 13:07 | Report Abuse

It will be a godsend for me if QL goes down bigtime with the big crash on wallstreet. I'll definitely then go full in. Hahaha, one can hope right?

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-28 13:59 | Report Abuse

tah16600, how do you know that the pe is high? what is low pe for you? I have a feeling you will probably never buy a single share of QL if you are always looking for cigar butt lying on the ground.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-28 15:29 | Report Abuse

anyway, just some more information for you too digest to understand how ql works. when you try digest a lesser managed competitor LAYHONG try to look at their previous quarter results announcement. Why did they have a big loss? It was due to 8% increase in feedstock prices from soy etc, and a culling of chickens in tamparuli for their broiler farms. Why did this not happen to QL? They also had broiler farms nearby? It is because of their attention to biological safety and agricultural quality (no culling as all the chickens were safe). they also produce their own feedstock mix from palm oil kernels and other materials (which come from their plantations) so the rise in soy prices did not even affect QL.

Thats why when kids like Choivo capital thought they were making a good deal investing in LAYHONG they burned all their money, high revenue, very low margins, no vertical integration. When they got caught swimming naked, all their positions turned to dust.

These are not new things, and you could see it coming a mile away. It just takes business sense to see beyond just numbers and figures and truly understand how a business works, what challenges they face, and what their competitors are doing differently. PE will never tell you this.

that is called understanding your stock.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-28 15:48 | Report Abuse

wow.....this long number guy really knows his stuff.

Posted by enigmatic > 2018-12-30 12:11 | Report Abuse

10154899906070843,
Thanks for the detailed reply. I'd say your investment approach mirrors that of Buffett. You buy and accumulate stocks of great businesses and hold for the long term. I believe some readers would quietly buy some QL shares after seeing the in-depth discussion here.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-30 12:37 | Report Abuse

I like QL shareholders generally and I like this long numbers guy even more.

Go read all his posts. I am sure will learn some thing from it and be a better investor.

Posted by TabulaRasa > 2018-12-31 01:08 | Report Abuse

Long live the long number guy. Thank you, uncle, for your quality posts.

Posted by striker888 > 2018-12-31 13:37 | Report Abuse

The rest of us numbers-challenged can take a simpler approach aka Peter Lynch's: if you see a business you like, and common sense tells you it's well managed, put your money in it. If the line at FM is 10x that of 711s, rest assured their margins of profit are just as much. Only the fools will tell you the margins cannot be more than 3-5% for everyone!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-31 14:54 | Report Abuse

here is the thing, last week i bought 50K shares at 6.25 on 25th December after company announce christmas bonus, now the share price go up to 6.82, should i sell now and enjoy slightly under 10% profit around 28K? most people would say wow that is a good technical deal lets do it! Choivo Capital will definitely say, wow! market down you make 10% surely by luck, speculative play like that sometimes make money other times sure lose money.

my question is, if the only reason you buy or sell shares is when you make money or lose money, then how do you when is a good time to buy or sell?

Do you do technical analysis (which i personally think is very weird for my investing understanding, when people buy you buy, when people sell then you sell more, time instead of being your friend it becomes your enemy. And you have to do many many trades, causing you to have less time to do proper research and judgement, and forces you to rely on charts, which somehow is always correct on backtrades, but when applied to future stock movements always end up correct until one day it doesnt. For me personally, when there is a discount at the supermarket i buy, and i never buy roses on valentines.

Do you do fundamental analysis? ( which i think is the way to go, but you have to read so much and remember so much that even geniuses like warren buffet can remember stock prices 5 or 10 years ago for his particular trades, you have to understand their competitors, the moats and economical advantages, the CEO's, the debts, the future business profitability and opportunity) that to reduce a stock simply to margins, profits, EBIT, revenue, DCF, debts is simply too simplistic and a suicide for anyone who doesnt do enough research into the stock.

Giving another example of a Sabah stock (the owners are sabahans, most of the directors and major shareholders are sabahans, my friends!) which is Mikromb, which were making really good money until 2017 end, if you look at the stock it is a perfect pioneer status company making protection relays and electrical relays that is so cheap and competitive it has been exported to vietnam, africa and overseas, with a huge growth and good track record of dividends and share splits and rewarding to the shareholders. for a value investor and a technical investor it would have been the perfect momentum stock.

However, a simple and detailed read into the company prospects, annual report and attending agm, would have warned you that their pioneer status ends in 2017, and lo and behold starting in 2018, everything is the same, good revenue growth, good dividends, good profit (30%), but receiving income tax from the government for the first time changes the entire company prospectus ( bringing 50% drop in share price). All of these can be avoided if you spend enough time reading and researching before buying the stock. Fundamental analysis will not tell you this, technical analysis cannot predict this.

The only reason why I knew about this was because ah wah the founder of mikro is a sabah friend, and a simple question on low taxes brought this issue up (and also eyebrows). Same with my investments in QL and topglove ( I live in east malaysia, and have seen with my own eyes their amazing growth. Also same with public bank (when all the big bosses and chinese companies in east malaysia all deposit their money with public bank, it means something, especially when the quality of the bank deposits is greatly increasing every year). For yinson, knowing about the company from the days when it was just a transportation company to the day it started to venture in to O&G fpso business I learned something valuable from the company manager, "it doesnt matter what the oil prices are, in the end we are just a transporter, forwarder and storage unit for oil. Our charter rates are fixed, and we will always have a market if we are the cheapest and most efficient transporter.

There is something to be said for knowing your circle of competence, and sticking to it. Until today I still only have 4 stocks, and whenever I meet another new fund manager/trader/ investor who says he invests in 10 or more stocks in different industries, businesses with multiple outlooks I cringe.

Either I am very very stupid and cant analyze google, amazon, facebook, superlon, hibiscus, etc all at once in a day. Or they really dont know what they are doing, and just have skin deep knowledge of their stock investments.

Either way, they are not touching my investments. Or making my decisions for me.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2018-12-31 14:59 | Report Abuse

long story short, you buy and sell shares when the story changes (which you find out every quarter). The discount vallue and pricing of shares should only serve to guide you, not manipulate you. In fact, I think warren buffet was brilliant when he said we would be better off if the stock ticker didnt exist and shares must be held for 10 years minimum. buying and selling shares based on rumors and panic is crazy. unless everyone knows something you dont. Which if you did your full research, you wont be blind to.

Posted by Woolei > 2018-12-31 15:05 | Report Abuse

long number gor, tq for sharing.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-31 15:45 | Report Abuse

long numbers found his niche

young man choi wants to challenge long numbers guy....

laughable actually.....

young and innocent and oblivious is a blessing.....otherwise choi resign already......

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-01 21:49 | Report Abuse

Long number is a legend. Seeing him teaching Jon Choivo investing lessons is funny!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-02 00:28 | Report Abuse

Swiss Bank account guy.....really meh? woah...

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-02 09:11 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Every stock has its own story and every stock has it market price and intrinsic value.
The price is what you pay and the value is what you get. The market price is irrational because market price is voting machine and subject to manipulation and emotion. Whereas the intrinsic value is the value you assigned to it after careful study and evaluation. No doubt QL is a good company with great management and growth company that is why many analysts give QL a very rich valuation as everyone love growth story (Example TESLA). Thus if you feel that the market price is below the intrinsic value then buy more but if you think that the market price already overshot it intrinsic value that sell and take profit. We are each our own angel and devil no one to blame. But please remember do not chase high and sell low.

Hence whether you are QL supporter or detractor please no low blow and agree to disagree respectfully with grace.

Thank you

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-02 09:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-02 11:31 | Report Abuse

Dear “You-Know-Who”
I am not going to waste my time to respond to your questions/provocations. As Buddha saying: “He who does not understand your silence will probably not understand your words.” And “The less you respond to negative people the more peaceful you will become.”

However I would like to advice you, please cleanse yourself of greed, envy, attachment, hatred and be blessed with peace of mind, love and happiness.

Thank you.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-02 11:35 | Report Abuse

Long numbers guy approach is pure business sense phil fisher style. Most i3 members here wont agree with it because most think they are value investors. They claim to value invest but they always hold for one or two quarters after the company business implode. Rinse and repeat. Hence, no value investors on i3 had held a tenbagger before. In bursa malaysia, a premium is indeed given to great business. If not how do you explain Nestle which is forever overvalued? And how do you explain the multiple value traps like Insas?

Posted by teareader818 > 2019-01-02 11:39 | Report Abuse

QL seem currently overpriced. Mr Market will eventually pull it back. But in the long run it should move even higher. There are certain conditions that favor its attraction. You'll be aware when it happens.

Posted by rajachulan > 2019-01-02 11:43 | Report Abuse

in a temple, a person seeing a monk

person: master, in so many years of preaching, have you ever met hardcore follower who wont listen and like to argue?

monk: yes...

person: how do you handle them?

monk: I will tell them that they are right...

person: but if the person is so hardcore, how can he listen and not continue argue?

monk: you are right...

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-02 11:44 | Report Abuse

sslee...yes...please join a convent ...or a Buddhist temple in the hills....stock market not for you......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-02 11:46 | Report Abuse

Flintstones > Jan 2, 2019 11:35 AM | Report Abuse

Long numbers guy approach is pure business sense phil fisher style. Most i3 members here wont agree with it because most think they are value investors. They claim to value invest but they always hold for one or two quarters after the company business implode. Rinse and repeat. Hence, no value investors on i3 had held a tenbagger before. In bursa malaysia, a premium is indeed given to great business. If not how do you explain Nestle which is forever overvalued? And how do you explain the multiple value traps like Insas?
=========

i3 value investors...they think they know how to value shares because some i3 sifus teach them about PE......

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-02 11:49 | Report Abuse

Well, they like to use 10x PE. Anything less than 10x PE is a value investment mah

Posted by rajachulan > 2019-01-02 11:53 | Report Abuse

I must admit no SINGLE TA factors can tell you the trend...

how can a SINGLE FA factor tell the value?

besides.... value are 'made' by human too as per human desire.... manipulation happen everywhere...

Posted by godhand > 2019-01-02 12:00 | Report Abuse

10154899906070843 anyway, just some more information for you too digest to understand how ql works. when you try digest a lesser managed competitor LAYHONG try to look at their previous quarter results announcement. Why did they have a big loss? It was due to 8% increase in feedstock prices from soy etc, and a culling of chickens in tamparuli for their broiler farms. Why did this not happen to QL? They also had broiler farms nearby? It is because of their attention to biological safety and agricultural quality (no culling as all the chickens were safe). they also produce their own feedstock mix from palm oil kernels and other materials (which come from their plantations) so the rise in soy prices did not even affect QL.

Thats why when kids like Choivo capital thought they were making a good deal investing in LAYHONG they burned all their money, high revenue, very low margins, no vertical integration. When they got caught swimming naked, all their positions turned to dust.

These are not new things, and you could see it coming a mile away. It just takes business sense to see beyond just numbers and figures and truly understand how a business works, what challenges they face, and what their competitors are doing differently. PE will never tell you this.

that is called understanding your stock.

___________________________________________________________________
This is what we call business advantage.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-02 12:12 | Report Abuse

rajachulan > Jan 2, 2019 11:53 AM | Report Abuse

I must admit no SINGLE TA factors can tell you the trend...

how can a SINGLE FA factor tell the value?

besides.... value are 'made' by human too as per human desire.... manipulation happen everywhere...
=========

the main message....i3 value investors think they know what is fair value.....think only....


value investors got 10 ways to value a business....and they found out got 11 ways to wrongly value a company.

QL shareholders just know they want to participate in the growth of QL.........