Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 18:49 | Report Abuse

His insas analysis is also very very spot on to be honest.

Which is why my graham net asset value plays are only 1-3(3% is absolute maximum) because these you need to diversify. As a portfolio its the total, all my net asset plays (roughly 20 co's, some have strong earnings though, just cheap as hell) are only 25%. At the end of the day im not a liquidator, i want to pay for earnings, not assets.

Which was why my FV for airasia did not change even when they gave the dividend. Because the payment of the dividend did not affect the earning power at all.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 19:05 | Report Abuse

Long Number philosophy is like this.

"Understand a business extremely well. And pay any price to own it, literally any price."

Warren Buffet says, "Wonderful company for fair value", for him, he goes "wonderful company at any price whatsoever"

Now, the thing is this, i agree with him the value of the company is not its PE. It could make sense to pay 20,30,40 even 200 PE for a wonderful company and a fast growing one. If you know that all the future cashflows/earnings of the company discounted to present value is significantly higher than the price now.

Berkshire shares were never cheap (except now), if you paid 100PE for Berkshire in 1965 (5 times the price then), you would still be a very very happy man.

In fact, recently Berkshire paid essentially 100PE for a stake in the extremely fast growing and profitable Stoneco Ltd (Brazilian payment co).

QL is at 50PE, TOPGLOVE at 30PE. (do note the use of PE here is because its convenient)

Let me put it this way, Long Number say he cannot analyse apple or google, fine.

Berkshire Hathaway is selling at 17-20 times operational earning. And it also owns a stock portfolio of roughly USD170bil (at current prices) and USD100bil in cash.

Deduct those from the market capitalization of Berkshire, and the company is selling at 13-15 times operational earnings.

If you have gone through the annual reports of Berkshire since 1965, you would know how to value it. And i doubt you can find a better management anywhere in the world.

He is telling me, QL at 50PE and TOPGLOVE at 30PE is a better investment than Berkshire Hathaway at 13-15 times earnings.

If QL was 100PE and Topglove 60PE. he would say the same thing.

The flaw in i3 investors is this. They always compare to market valuations. You need to compare to the world.

Uncle, show me how Topglove or QL is better than berkshire hathaway and thus deserve those fantastic valuations.

Or is your reasoning going to be, i cannot. Therefore i will pay any price for a business i can understand and i think its good.

You should consider having a conversation with retired general electric employees who took stock options today.

In essence, "A great company, at a high enough price, turns into a bad investment. And a bad company, at a low enough price, turns into a good investment."

That does not make sense to him.

====
probability Jon, instead of sslee...i would be much pleased if you could give your arguments to refute his opinions..

but only one request....

keep the article "short and simple" :)

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 19:06 | Report Abuse

Also, stop slandering me on layhong.

It was never a position beyond 1.9%. And i always said it was a punt.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 19:11 | Report Abuse

A high enough purchase price, can stamp down a decade worth of good business development.

Well uncle, if you think QL revenue and earnings can grow from 2019 to 2029 at a faster pace, than it did growing from 2009 to 2018.

Go ahead. Would be a good idea then.

Just don't go on margin. The only way you die from your Achilles heel now is with margin finance.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 19:15 | Report Abuse

On your rcecap questions, i know the answers, but im not answering them, as well, im not a fan of going other people's homework for them.

I would rather RCECAP stock price drop 50% to be honest. It'll give me a good reason to buy some.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-03 19:21 | Report Abuse

Jon, your arguments is quite similar to his arguments...he is saying PE x is not high for this y company...

he did not say any PE ma...did he? (i am not aware)

same way you also can say PE of berkshire compared to PE given to Company - y is much lower....

but that does not mean company Y and berkshire are the same ma...

......................

guess the whole argument is how to justify a PE given to a company..

PE is usually linked to the future growth potential (a) & the certainty (b)...

there are two variables here..(a) and (b)..how is that derived with confidence?

that is the crucial skills...like an artist can derive from experience...like a driver who can park his car in a tight space with 1 cm tolerance with experience..

these are difficult to express tangibly i guess..

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-03 19:31 | Report Abuse

The other arguement is that we may not get perfect info even on 2 very similiar company in the same industry loh...so the valuer need to excercise & make subjective judgement in doing valuation basing on PE loh..!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 19:32 | Report Abuse

Probability,

Is the money generated from QL, different from those generated by say PetronM?

If i take my dividends from QL go to shop, will they let me buy one TV instead of two (if i were to bring my dividend from PetronM instead?)

No mah, money is money.

There are three reasons why people give a higher PE (again just for convenience),

1) They expect a stronger growth in earnings

2) The earnings of one is far more resilient than the other, and you would therefore be ok with less return (funnily, there's a saying, its the good swimmers who drown)

3) The business is easier to understand than most, and fantastic. Therefore, more people buy and push up the price (which oddly, makes it less attractive as an investment).

I doubt QL can grow 3 times faster than berkshire. Or its earnings and economic power more resilient than that of berkshire. And despite its strong management, i doubt its better than those at berkshire hathaway.

Which leaves the third reason.

Mr Long Number, as he said, does not know how to understand those other businesses yet. Now, i greatly admire those who refuse to buy what they don't understand, they should end up well investment wise.

But here, Mr Long Name is also saying, as long as i understand the business, and i think its great, regardless of price, i will buy it. Open Gold Mountain, Diamond River price also i will buy.

QL today RM6, I buy. RM10, i buy. RM20, i buy. RM50, i also buy.

This does not make sense to me.

You should go and read the comments by Ricky Yeo and his replies. Then you'll know what i mean.

=====
same way you also can say PE of berkshire compared to PE given to Company - y is much lower....

but that does not mean company Y and berkshire are the same ma...

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 19:39 | Report Abuse

Now, the buy at right price and hold forever maxim, makes sense. People like to show Berkshire Hathaway and Public Bank as reference.

But did you know those 2 companies have never traded much higher than fair value, its usually fair value plus a bit more.

In 1998, coca cola was 70PE. Warren Buffet didnt want to sell, in fact he was glad the company was buying back its stock.

IN 2003, WB admitted he should have sold this stake then, his reason was that he got caught up in the rise in price.

If you bough Coca Cola in 1998 at 70PE, or USD43. Do note the price dropped to USD19 in 2004.

Today, its USD46.

You would have made USD3, plus dividends.

A high enough purchase price, can stamp down a decade worth of good business development.

In this case, its 2 decades.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-03 19:43 | Report Abuse

QL good premium valuation come from its success on "Family Mart retail outlets" !

Market classify it is a growth stock loh...!!

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-03 19:45 | Report Abuse

Long numbers guy has already explained his rationale. In Malaysia, we dont get many great business to invest. Hence, great companies with super moat will be given extremely high P/E.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 19:46 | Report Abuse

Coca cola today is 43 PE. QL is 53 PE.

Again, Mr Long Number is telling you, QL either has better growth prospects than coca cola, or its earnings and business more resilient than coca cola.

In short, he is saying QL is a better business than Coca Cola.

Or because he is able to visit QL management and not Coca Cola Management (don't tell me don't know how to analyse business like Coca Cola, this one even 6 year old know), he is willing to therefore pay 10 times of earnings more.

If this makes sense to you, go buy QL.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-03 19:52 | Report Abuse

wei ...from PE53 to PE43...only 20% rise in earnings required ma...

QL boss already establish foreign market well ma...he has penetrated..

its like he already own walmart and place it everywhere in asia...

now just looking for different types food to add into the grocery section...

its just about creating a new product or acquiring a new product...

sap sap soi lor

this is business sense lor

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-03 19:52 | Report Abuse

Coca Cola based on its mkt cap and market penetration share is already matured whereas QL Family Mart opportunity is just the beginning loh...!!

So QL should be compare to GRAB, Amazon, Tesla etc with growth and not compare with coke loh...!!


Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 3, 2019 07:46 PM | Report Abuse

Coca cola today is 43 PE. QL is 53 PE.

Again, Mr Long Number is telling you, QL either has better growth prospects than coca cola, or its earnings and business more resilient than coca cola.

In short, he is saying QL is a better business than Coca Cola.

Or because he is able to visit QL management and not Coca Cola Management (don't tell me don't know how to analyse business like Coca Cola, this one even 6 year old know), he is willing to therefore pay 10 times of earnings more.

If this makes sense to you, go buy QL.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-03 19:53 | Report Abuse

Hahaha. P/E is not everything in investment. It is imperfect to judge a business by P/E. Or else how do we value great disruptors like Alibaba, Uber or Airbnb? P/E was almost non-existent for these companies in the early stage. A negative P/E would mean these companies were a bad investment back in the day.

Who is the most successful investor in the last two decades? It was Softbank's Masayoshi Son. He is the modern day warren buffett.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 19:53 | Report Abuse

Correct.

Its mainly due to EPF, PNB, ASB etc being forced to buy so much shares in such a small market. And these funds everyday get billions more to invest.

Now, that is relying on someone to pay a greater price, which is speculative.

An investment is where, the price is significantly lower than all future cash flows discounted to net present value. This is probably isnt.

Now, EPF, PNB, ASB buying such incredible high stakes was the norm then, do you think it will be the norm moving forward?

Or even for the next 4 years at least?

LGE and the PH govt, have made it clear they want EPF, PNB, ASB etc to be less entrenched in the malaysian stock market. They don't want them to hold such large holdings.

If these fund can sell and buy cheaper shares overseas, and increase oversea holdings size.

What do you think will happen to wonderful companies with extremely high valuations.

If EPF couldnt get a buyer for QL stake at 50PE. Instead it was forced to accept a lower price, or swap it for other foreign shares, lets say that company is 20PE and they swap 2.5 QL shares for one of that co shares

You see Daibochi and Scientex? What do you think will happen?

If you cannot find anything good in KLSE, look to SGX, HKSE, Shanghai, Shenzen.

Open an interactive brokers account, access to 50 markets, and fees are far lower than Malaysian Brokers.

====================
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 3, 2019 07:45 PM | Report Abuse

Long numbers guy has already explained his rationale. In Malaysia, we dont get many great business to invest. Hence, great companies with super moat will be given extremely high P/E.

Posted by Flintstones > 2019-01-03 19:55 | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo. I can see where you are coming from and I think you are not wrong. Long numbers guy is not wrong too. To each its own. Both ways of seeing things work. End of the day it is all about value investing vs growth investing again.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-03 19:56 | Report Abuse

anyway...after all the discussion we can see PE is not very useful to obtain a multi-bagger...

its like you are looking at the surface..superficial information

but business sense does...

and what is business sense?

our sifu put it very nicely here:


Posted by Up_down > Jan 3, 2019 07:15 PM | Report Abuse

Who to follow when one analyse a company based on Benjamin Graham and the other based on Philip Fisher principles? No ending argument due to different frequency. You talk your way and I talk my way. We will certainly reach the entirely different conclusion. Important is to stick with our core competence in analysing a company and understand the risks associated with it. One laser sharp knife is more than sufficient to stay afloat in the market.

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-01-03 20:03 | Report Abuse

PE alone is not, but even if look at all other key parameter like P/B, FCF, ROE, DY all point to an overprice.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 20:08 | Report Abuse

Alright, we want to talk Softbank, the company of Mayoshi Son? Lets start.

At the peak of its 2000 bubble, Softbank sold at 20,000 yen per share, today its 7,305 yen. Not exactly a great investment. Most great tech company have long ago beaten their 2000 peak prices by a long margin.

Maybe you mean their fund? The one with a 44% return over a 18 year period?

Well, did you know pretty much every single investment failed except for one? A USD20 million investment in Alibaba in 2000 that turned into USD50 billion in 2017.

And he invested in hundreds of companies then. If you think Insas 1 in 6 track record is bad, what about his?

Is it luck or skill? Can you even tell?

In addition, size matters, in 1998, large venture capital funds are 1 bil maximum, with most being a few hundred mil only.

Vision fund is USD93 billion, and contesting with hundreds of billions more in venture capital fund. You think got so many company to pour money into?

They also did'nt have roughly 1 decade worth of zero interest rates in the 2000 tech bubble.

A large amount of money being poured into an small investment class for a long enough time, can create constant rising prices, which within a few years, can turn into pseudo truth.

But the piper must always be paid. You think will this year will have 200 bil fund to push up prices even more? Do you think its a perpetual motion machine?

SNAPCHAT listed at USD25bil, today its USD6bil and dropping.

At some point, all these loss making business will need to list. And when they do, and if interest rates increase, i doubt their valuations will be higher than IPO.

Btw, Alibaba is profitable since 3 year of operation, and it has the chinese government backing.


=====
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 3, 2019 07:53 PM | Report Abuse

Hahaha. P/E is not everything in investment. It is imperfect to judge a business by P/E. Or else how do we value great disruptors like Alibaba, Uber or Airbnb? P/E was almost non-existent for these companies in the early stage. A negative P/E would mean these companies were a bad investment back in the day.

Who is the most successful investor in the last two decades? It was Softbank's Masayoshi Son. He is the modern day warren buffett.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-03 20:08 | Report Abuse

Aiyoh, just when I thought choivo had potential, he now comes and put words in my mouth. Firstly I did not say buy any business at any price. What I did say was be willing to buy a good business at a perceived fair value. Just because ql is pe 50 right now doesn't mean anything in terms of its business performance. All it means is share holders are willing to pay 50 times earnings for QL because they believe they will be rewarded in the future with great performance.

Now ask yourself this. What happens if 5 years from now, you stop growing ql business? They will take out 350 million of yearly investments into plant and capex and start giving it back to the investors. That is why when the growth slows down you start looking at PE. You get a nice fat dividend, I sell all of my 2 million shares in QL and I reinvest in something new. And what is the PE now? Definitely not 50 anymore as they start paying tax on the declared earnings ( which I don't like), it probably gets to 8-10 pe and becomes like a defensive maybank stock which you invest by getting dividend (and never getting rich).

First and foremost, find that good business with unassailable moats and good growth potential first. After you have analyzed that, then you look at the pe.

If you do it the other way around, you would have never bought Google or Berkshire or Amazon.

If you want me to show you why QL is better investment in the future compared to Berkshire it can be pretty easy. Even Warren has said it many times in his AGM. It is much easier to go from 1 billion to 2 billion earnings than it is for 250 billion to go to 500 billion in earnings. It's the same thing for Berkshire, he said it many times, the performance of Berkshire today will never match the performance of the last 20 years. He literally said it himself. There is just a limit to how many great businesses you can buy before you have to start holding doles of unused cash.

You will never invest in a business like Amazon or QL or TOPGLOV or Google because you do things the other way around. You never had a ten bagger, and you never will. Why? Your mindset is on perceived value. And not in how the business is growing or how big the moat can be.

If you want to be stuck in value trap like RCECAP enjoy yourself all you want, but in 5-10 years of high PE performance QL had literally performed better than your 32% holdings in RCECAP.

Why? You don't understand your stock or your business. You don't know the ceo's name, what his background is and the basis of your thinking is ahlongs will always make money. Funny.

Let's look back in 5 years and see if you are still on RCECAP.

Oh wait, please invest for longer than 5 years before you start commenting more theories and less facts.

Did you even invest in Berkshire before? You seem to talk about it alot, do you understand the business and all it's business units? Do you know who the CEO of netjets is? Have you ever sat on a netjet before?

I'm saying if you don't know what growth prospects is on all it's business units, the performance of all it's managers and ceo's, their background and business capability, don't waste time drawings figures in the sand. Your investing skills is basically just words with no performance return.

In 2017 I doubled my return on QL, it was a calculated risk but done on a quarterly basis with confidence.

You had -20% on your fund in 2017, you clearly don't understand any of your business. And if you are blaming it on China+US and all the other gooblededook, I truly pity you.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 20:14 | Report Abuse

Raider,

In malaysia, QL will need to compete with 7 eleven, Mynews, Giant, Carrefour, Mydin, Cold storage. Do you consider them easy competition?

QL is large in Malaysia, ok sized in SEA. Is QL brand super fantastic, until people willing to pay more for surumi from QL?

You know, i was in singapore last week. Every day i visit different grocer to see their frozen food section etc.

I did not see QL items even once. Or layhong and QSR for that matter.

Do you have any idea how many competitors they are in frozen food, and how strong they are?


=====
Posted by stockraider > Jan 3, 2019 07:52 PM | Report Abuse

Coca Cola based on its mkt cap and market penetration share is already matured whereas QL Family Mart opportunity is just the beginning loh...!!

So QL should be compare to GRAB, Amazon, Tesla etc with growth and not compare with coke loh...!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-03 20:17 | Report Abuse

A 2% position for me now is slightly under 500k, so if you can afford to "punt" 2% of your portfolio on silly things, maybe you should just stop investing other people's money.

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-01-03 20:27 | Report Abuse

Please do not compare QL with super high growth company like Alibaba. QL EPS growth is a at single digit over the past 8 years, not to mention its poor FCF.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 20:29 | Report Abuse

Long Number,

I've read every single annual report of Berkshire Hathaway from 1956 to 2018. And all the AGM transcripts from 1999 to 2018. I've also read every word spoken by its chairman and vice chairman.

I know that company like the back of my hand.

I don't put words in your mouth, you said it yourself,

I reference,



"Enigmatic, how do you defined overvalued? I sell only when the story changes. For me I will sell when

a. either the founder and family stop going to site, pass away and being so hands on in the business. Did you know the ql founder has a PHD in agriculture field?

b. People stop eating eggs, chicken, palm oil, seafood. Or if a cheaper source becomes more acceptable readily available.

c. They start giving out big share options to directors in lieau of salary or start spending willy nilly on bad companies."



Nowehere do i see anything about valaution. In fact, as long as the story is right, you will keep buying, regardless of price. If you think QL at 50PE, is a better business than TSMC the only semiconductor foundry of note (selling at 15PE).

I dont know what to say to you.

My top 3 holdings 4 holdings, all have either great moats at really good prices, or decent moat but great price.

I have always said, an investment is all future cashflow, discounted to present value. Now some companies need to make some losses early, and make only make a bit afterwards, but can make massive amounts of money towards the end, and you can only know this, is you have business sense and know it very well.

I bought some berkshire and apple recently. And am planning to buy some google, facebook and amazon from people who bought shares a year ago thinking it will go up forever, once the price is right.

Netjets? Please i wrote about these a long time ago, refer above.

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/business-sense-investing/

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/value-traps-for-value-investor/



I dont think you are so foolish as to not understand what me or ricky yeo is saying. From the way you write, you are clearly very intelligent.

My guess, you just being egoistical, and you can't bear the thought of anyone teaching you something. Especially if they're younger than you.

Go sleep on it. You'll agree with me. Because you're smart, and i'm right.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-03 20:29 | Report Abuse

If you consider 7-11, family Mart then jump to mydin and giant as the same kind of business competitors, then you really need to go outside into the real world and work a little bit. I feel like I'm wasting my own time trying to explain something that is so basic even idiots would know the difference.

Please don't ask to manage Mr koon fund. It's sad.

You are sad. Choivo. I'm actually embarrassed for you

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-03 20:33 | Report Abuse

You do know that ql produces and sells raw materials for those companies to make those frozen food right as well as selling finished goods Right? Surimi is basically seafood paste. Try buying seafood, notice how expensive it is. Try buying ql raw material for your manufacturing process, notice how cheap it is? Do you even know how much ql sells surimi per kg? Who else sells cheaper? Have you talked to any of the frozen food manufacturers and supplier of raw materials?

Skin deep knowledge equals skin deep results.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-03 20:34 | Report Abuse

Chivo,

Have u gone into a family mart shop ??

Can u see the crowd & buying power of consumer here compare with 7 eleven,mynews, kmart etc leh ??

If yes...u can really see the growth prospect of QL family mart compare to the rest loh..!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 3, 2019 08:14 PM | Report Abuse

Raider,

In malaysia, QL will need to compete with 7 eleven, Mynews, Giant, Carrefour, Mydin, Cold storage. Do you consider them easy competition?

QL is large in Malaysia, ok sized in SEA. Is QL brand super fantastic, until people willing to pay more for surumi from QL?

You know, i was in singapore last week. Every day i visit different grocer to see their frozen food section etc.

I did not see QL items even once. Or layhong and QSR for that matter.

Do you have any idea how many competitors they are in frozen food, and how strong they are?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 20:36 | Report Abuse

Haha you are right on this one.

I should have never punted or did anything adventurously. I consider it my biggest mistake of 2018, because i punted, and because i would not have idea if i should buy if it dropped.

Lesson learnt. Thankfully, as ive stated, my investor capital is guaranteed.

At least i learnt something in 2018. You on the other than still think its ok to buy a great company regardless of valuation.

Or is too egotistical to admit you are wrong.

Btw, capex at QL last year is only 270m, some of it is maintenance capex (do you know what this means) btw, that is needed to maintain the earnings.

If they paid out all earnings and did zero capex, you would be getting 1.8% div. Roughly 35% of FD rate.

And this earning will inevitably fall, as machine spoil, and their cost become far higher than their competitors due to lowered efficiency.

And you consider this price to be fair.

Like i said, please don't go on margin.

We'd like you to be around commenting 10 years from now.
====
Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 3, 2019 08:17 PM | Report Abuse

A 2% position for me now is slightly under 500k, so if you can afford to "punt" 2% of your portfolio on silly things, maybe you should just stop investing other people's money.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 20:37 | Report Abuse

young man choi

stock market? finally it is also about character, habits and practise....

but one thing is undoubted...so called value investors are a dime a dozen.....and mostly it is holding paper losses and cannot sell because too low already.....

value here value there, devils in every corner...make money sell la.....

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 20:38 | Report Abuse

I'll just past Ricky Yeo answer here.

Since he is smarter than me, and explain it 100 times clearer than i can.

=====
@10154899906070843 You are on point that understanding a business should go beyond PE, FCF, or at least, those numbers need to tie back to the business itself. And you mention moat being a good point too, a company that has a huge moat, or at least a growing moat, deserve a higher PE compare to a business that has declining or no moat because it can earn alot more economic profit down the line.

So going back to QL, you have to identify if there is a source of competitive advantage, and if there is, what is it? and is it growing, stable or declining?

From 2006 to 2018, QL invested just over $2 bil into the business, while net income grow from $48 mil to $206 mil during this time, that imply a return on business of 7.4%. Decent but not spectacular. And of course, keep in mind the investment over the past 1-3 years might not have bear fruit yet due to lagging effect. Such as investment in family mart for example.

If we assume QL has a moat, where will that come from? First one I can think of will be scale economies. Their growing gross margin since 2006 can be an evidence that the efficient in production through scale allow them to lower their cost (Spreading fixed cost over more units). But operating margin and ROIC has declined at the same time because asset turnover has dropped significantly. The biggest assets is of course investment in PPE - growing 6.8x in 12 years. In comparison, net income only grow by 4.6x, that's why the decline in ROIC. Operating margin is up, compare to 12 years ago, but not as big of a magnitude as gross margin because SG&A are growing fast too, grown 5x.

So it seems that the investment in assets to allow QL to achieve scale economies which translate into a higher gross margin is being offset by higher administrative cost (meaning admin cost doesn't get the benefit of scale economies). The incremental investment of those assets is producing lesser and lesser return as well. But this is just hypothesis. More of a half truth. Asset turnover has been on the decline since 2006, while at the same time, some assets investments are partly due to Familymart, especially for capex since 2016 ($100 mil in all).

So when you look at from the current valuation point of view of $12 bil enterprise value, there needs to have some form of moat and runway to justify that valuation given a net income of $200 mil. The traditional business (marine & livestock) are doing well, but is there a long runway? Malaysia market is fairly saturated (based on layman assumption). Perhaps neighbour countries have higher growth opportunity but grow fish and chicken are not the same as installing an app, it is highly anchored to country economy and population wealth etc.

So there's a high probability the justification of $12 bil EV comes from family mart investment. Let's assume Affin's estimate of $6k daily turnover per store as ballpark, upon all opening of 90 stores, running full 365 days/year, will get you $197 mil revenue. How much will the net income be? 7-Eleven's profit margin is around 2.5%. Family Mart in Japan profit margin is 2.8%. Let's say we use 3% margin, net income will be $5.91 mil, make it $6 mil. 90 Family Mart stores, $6 mil annual profit. Of course the positive thing with familymart is there is a long runway compare to the traditional fish and livestock business. There is a potential to grow few hundred FM stores all over Malaysia and not to mention perhaps scale economies again. But you are looking at a ROC of roughly 6% here. (ROE = Profit margin 3% x Asset turnover of 2). Family Mart Japan has ROE of 4.5-6%. That should perhaps grow over time because of scale.

So you have to ask is is this investment enough to justify me buying the business for $12 bil?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-03 20:47 | Report Abuse

I think if u substitute QL with Nestle , Dutch Lady or even Petdag, u will get the same kind of arguement as below loh...!!

Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 3, 2019 08:38 PM | Report Abuse

I'll just past Ricky Yeo answer here.

Since he is smarter than me, and explain it 100 times clearer than i can.

=====
@10154899906070843 You are on point that understanding a business should go beyond PE, FCF, or at least, those numbers need to tie back to the business itself. And you mention moat being a good point too, a company that has a huge moat, or at least a growing moat, deserve a higher PE compare to a business that has declining or no moat because it can earn alot more economic profit down the line.

So going back to QL, you have to identify if there is a source of competitive advantage, and if there is, what is it? and is it growing, stable or declining?

From 2006 to 2018, QL invested just over $2 bil into the business, while net income grow from $48 mil to $206 mil during this time, that imply a return on business of 7.4%. Decent but not spectacular. And of course, keep in mind the investment over the past 1-3 years might not have bear fruit yet due to lagging effect. Such as investment in family mart for example.

If we assume QL has a moat, where will that come from? First one I can think of will be scale economies. Their growing gross margin since 2006 can be an evidence that the efficient in production through scale allow them to lower their cost (Spreading fixed cost over more units). But operating margin and ROIC has declined at the same time because asset turnover has dropped significantly. The biggest assets is of course investment in PPE - growing 6.8x in 12 years. In comparison, net income only grow by 4.6x, that's why the decline in ROIC. Operating margin is up, compare to 12 years ago, but not as big of a magnitude as gross margin because SG&A are growing fast too, grown 5x.

So it seems that the investment in assets to allow QL to achieve scale economies which translate into a higher gross margin is being offset by higher administrative cost (meaning admin cost doesn't get the benefit of scale economies). The incremental investment of those assets is producing lesser and lesser return as well. But this is just hypothesis. More of a half truth. Asset turnover has been on the decline since 2006, while at the same time, some assets investments are partly due to Familymart, especially for capex since 2016 ($100 mil in all).

So when you look at from the current valuation point of view of $12 bil enterprise value, there needs to have some form of moat and runway to justify that valuation given a net income of $200 mil. The traditional business (marine & livestock) are doing well, but is there a long runway? Malaysia market is fairly saturated (based on layman assumption). Perhaps neighbour countries have higher growth opportunity but grow fish and chicken are not the same as installing an app, it is highly anchored to country economy and population wealth etc.

So there's a high probability the justification of $12 bil EV comes from family mart investment. Let's assume Affin's estimate of $6k daily turnover per store as ballpark, upon all opening of 90 stores, running full 365 days/year, will get you $197 mil revenue. How much will the net income be? 7-Eleven's profit margin is around 2.5%. Family Mart in Japan profit margin is 2.8%. Let's say we use 3% margin, net income will be $5.91 mil, make it $6 mil. 90 Family Mart stores, $6 mil annual profit. Of course the positive thing with familymart is there is a long runway compare to the traditional fish and livestock business. There is a potential to grow few hundred FM stores all over Malaysia and not to mention perhaps scale economies again. But you are looking at a ROC of roughly 6% here. (ROE = Profit margin 3% x Asset turnover of 2). Family Mart Japan has ROE of 4.5-6%. That should perhaps grow over time because of scale.

So you have to ask is is this investment enough to justify me buying the business for $12 bil?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 20:52 | Report Abuse

my first post in this forum

Posted by qqq3 > Dec 27, 2018 11:55 AM | Report Abuse X

I like people who buy ql......

my second post post in this forum

Posted by qqq3 > Dec 27, 2018 11:57 AM | Report Abuse X

people who buy ql have their own mind...I like that.....

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 20:53 | Report Abuse

Not for nestle and petdag, because their ROIC is insane, because they have brand moat.

But both are overvalued. Petdag is above fair value, but not a stupid price.

Raider bro, overvalued companies can get alot higher. And undervalued companies can get a lot lower

If you want to speculate and make that money, by all means, do so. Just dont forget you are speculating and have a cut loss.

That kind of money i don't know how to make.

===
Posted by stockraider > Jan 3, 2019 08:47 PM | Report Abuse

I think if u substitute QL with Nestle , Dutch Lady or even Petdag, u will get the same kind of arguement as below loh...!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 20:56 | Report Abuse

i3lurker > Jan 3, 2019 08:54 PM | Report Abuse

qqq3

Swiss Bank Account guy wun help you like KYY did
============

but u fail to understand....I have been writing similar stuffs in i3 for 3 years....but I can only write as I am a trader.....here is a guy who actually did it.....

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 21:01 | Report Abuse

"You never had a ten bagger, and you never will."


Mr Long Number,

You want to bet? Lets bet RM1 mil on this, payable upon my death.

As long as i live for 50 more years, and compound at 4.75% per year, i'll get a ten bagger.

Just need to put RM100 in a Turkish FD.

And when i win the RM 1mil, ill have a record better than Son Mayoshi. Heck, ill even beat James Simons!

Uncle, dont go saying things you cant back up or don't mean just because you're feeling emotional.

For all your talk about RCECAP, you were the one encouraging people to buy it



10154899906070843 Hi Singh1, I may be wrong on this, but I think your conclusion on price alone as a factor of investing in stocks is pretty flawed. Example, the house I bought in puchong was pretty low for a good 10 years before suddenly the price jump to catch the value of the location in recent years. So price and value is unconnected from my opinion,

In 2009( best year in Malaysia), rce did around 200m revenue, the net assets per share is 40 cents, earnings is 9 cents.
In 2018( after the worst set of years in Malaysia), rce did around 245m revenue, net assets per share is 151 cents, earnings is 26 cents.

If you assume that IMDb d didn't exist, and market factors from our spending (usd3.0 to usd4.5 exc) has no effect on business, then yes fd would have been a much better investment. But imagine if you had bought 10k every quarter from 2009-2018( knowing that you had a solid business and just keep on buying consistently), the dollar cost averaging itself u would realize that your average buying cost + dividend would be around rm1.20.
27/11/2018 10:46

10154899906070843 So my question is, do you think our country which had 7 years of bad economy will be balanced out by 7 years of good economy in the future? ( Past results doesn't guaranteed future performance)

And if you think Malaysia will catch a break sooner or later, do you think a company that averages 36% net profit during the bad times will outperform during the good times?

Basically it's like buying that semi-d in puchong for 300k, you don't know what the value will be like, but the location will almost guarantee value sooner or later.

Hope this gives you more clarity. Until then, buy and hold!
27/11/2018 10:52


Just because i disagree with you on QL, it becomes a horrible investment!

If this is not your emotion talking, i dont know what it is.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 21:02 | Report Abuse

not just about surimi....if it is about surimi....go buy Texchem.....they are the first in malaysia to produce surimi for exports and local consumption......

its the package deal that counts......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 21:09 | Report Abuse

Texchem got surimi, got Sushi King, plenty others....but some how Texchem never become big league, this QL did....somebody going to do a PhD on it.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 21:31 | Report Abuse

pity...Sushi King was the first sushi franchise in Malaysia...now they are the dinosaurs...and over priced.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 21:33 | Report Abuse

The Japanese guy very impressive guy...even get a Tan Sri......but the share dead from day one.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-03 21:43 | Report Abuse

In terms of egotistical, I never started posting in thi3 website until recently, even though I read almost every post and investment book and remember all your figures and explanations.

I started investing since 2003, started making proper money after doing scuttlebutt since 2008.

In all that time I have never had the gall to use other people's money to invest for them, or ask to manage Mr koons assets in an open letter.

Worse still I never asked to do it after only reading and learning about investing a few years without any proper track record.

Luckily I don't need to.

FYI, I do know what maintenance capex is, I work for an engineering firm that does maintenance contracts, upgrades and installations for boilermech and QL. Trust me, when I say I saw QL growth with my own eyes, I really did.

You on the other hand spend 1 day looking at QL financial report and can come up with a sweeping remark saying that it is overvalued at pe50. Brilliant.

Try asking me how much was the 2 pieces of land they bought for capex growth? What was the fair value price of the land? What is all their subsidiaries and locations and the markets they sell to?

Like I said, skin deep knowledge equals skin deep results.

FYI. I never told anyone to buy into RCECAP. I never bought it, and I wouldn't recommend you putting 32% of your net worth into it either. Basically after understanding their business model and looking at the long game, I had a very different view of their long term viability comparing the bigger competitors.

But anyway, your compounded return for your ten bagger will never succeed if you don't compound your returns into RCECAP asap. Because that is how you compound.

Oh wait. You don't have any returns to speak of.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-03 22:01 | Report Abuse

and just answer me this very simple question: before you said all the chia brothers are selling. could you take a look again after your remarks after christmas? Are they still selling? or did they just buy 6 million shares?

Are they proving a point to you choivo? Or are they just blind as well? Or maybe.. just maybe.. they think as I do. Shareholders and management both are aligned on the true value of QL.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 22:06 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr Long Number,

Good, you're no fool then.

They bought cheap land, that have not been revalued for many years. I close my eyes can point out 15 companies better in that.

Look at the end of the day, if one buys QL, its not for land not revalued for a long time, but for the earnings.

Yes, i dont have a track record. Because i have only started recording it properly.

I was investing since i was 10. Thats 2002. But i was very very young, and i barely understood "The intelligent investor" then, and did not do ok, till 2016, when i sailang into Airasia at RM1 or less, for what was a stupid reason, but i was lucky.

You on the other hand, have a track record, good thought process, and a fatal flaw.

I can point out 10 people with fantastic track records, done in spite of their fatal flaws, who lost it all at the end of their careers.

I don't really care about ones track record, unless its more than 20 years. I need to know if your though process makes sense.

Your multi-baggers come from buying great companies at fantastic valuations during the throes of a recession. And then riding the longest bull run in modern history. Are you sure its a matter of skill, or just because a rising tide lifts all boats.

Looking at how you speak, i have to say a significant portion was probably due to skill, and the low to fair valautions saving you from your "Buy wonderful at ANY price" philosphy.

Only QL was expensive, and luckily for you, you knew it had good management and it was in the right industry that was growing with good profits for most..

Lionind and parkson had fantastic management too, just in the wrong industry. Imagine if you bought that instead. The scuttlebutt method would have definitely lead you to parkson, since we all shopped there then.

You would have a very different outcome then.

The logic must be clear, in order to minimize the probability of turkey before Christmas happening. And the sheer amount of ad hominem and personal attacks you employ to defend you points about QL, says volume about the crookedness of your logic (in this area in particular)

Good luck. I wish you well. I hope you find another 10 bagger, and im sure you will if you actually listen to what i and ricky had to say.

If you didnt, well, just don't use margin, 10 bagger turn into 6-7 bagger is not a bad outcome. This one you are probably wise enough to not require me to tell you.

I wont be replying here anymore, as i've technically given you RM400 at least worth of advice at RM0.5 per word. And i'm still in the office finishing off some things.

My heart really is too soft sometimes.

Or maybe i'm just too egoistical, and cant let a random comment go. Hahahahaha. Thats probably the reality of things.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-03 22:08 | Report Abuse

Chia buy or sell, none of my business, i don't know their investment track record nor their personal finances.

If they took out loans tied to the value of the portfolio, they may want to buy then.

Ahh, see, broke my rule of not replying here again. I really must be too egoistical.

but i'd like to think it was because my heart soft hahahaha.

Posted by rajachulan > 2019-01-03 22:10 | Report Abuse

"I can point out 10 people with fantastic track records, done in spite of their fatal flaws, who lost it all at the end of their careers."

jesse livermore on top of the list??? thrice he did!!!

Posted by 10154899906070843 > 2019-01-03 22:35 | Report Abuse

Please dont talk to me about lion industries and their antara steel business, because it was nonsense from the get-go. Parkson is a company with zero moat, and you want to imagine I will go into those sectors. I never will, although I laugh seeing you punt into layhong with no ideas about how the business works.

Seriously children with their assumptions, I do hope you didn't invest in those companies back then. If every stock that goes up or down have to take a swing, then that is speculation. And with your 28 stocks in your portfolio, I definitely worry about your ideas of real investment.

Giant and family Mart same business competitors indeed.

Do send me a bill for your stock advice, as I think you need all the help you can get. Maybe you can consider charging and teaching other people how to invest in stocks as well, especially with that saying,

Those who can, do. Those who can't do, Teach. Those who can't teach, teach PE. Or in your case, stock trading successes.

FYI, I'm not the one using margin in my investments, not am I the one using my parents money and my friends money to throw money into stocks.

Oh wait, you are.

Good luck in 2019, and let's compare the performance of your stocks in 2019 versus my stocks. See you at the end of the year.

Posted by probability > 2019-01-03 22:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 22:59 | Report Abuse

me? I think value here value there cannot make money unless u can take a company private.... take over the whole business

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:00 | Report Abuse

I think trading can make money... just don't mistake trading for investing

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-03 23:01 | Report Abuse

of course long number guy approach is what I have been writing about for 3 years..... very refreshing