Posted by qqq3 > 2019-02-28 23:35 | Report Abuse

by qqq3 > Feb 28, 2019 08:03 PM | Report Abuse X

better go check whether Nigeria will take them to holland...........don't ask them........check yourself. what if there is revolution In Nigeria? capital controls? Default?

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-01 00:13 | Report Abuse

Dear quack, quack, quack,
Go and attend JAKS AGM and PLP ALP and see whether he will throw some crumb to you.

No one going to miss you if you just disappear from i3. (Perhaps KCChong will miss you, “Who I am going to bash after you're gone???”) Or who care “btw, i would rather spend my 10 ringgit on a ramly double ayam special and a can of coke or a burger king double.” Spend your 10 ringgit in whatever way you like. (For all it worth you can get a quick blow job by “ramly double ayam special or burger queer double” at Bukit Bintang backline with 10 ringgit).

We at the Investment Bloggers Day 2019 will have a great time meeting each other, building friendships and networking. My Speaking slot from 4:15pm to 4:45pm most likely the last speaker and I hope to bring the event to its climax end.

Thank you

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-01 00:44 | Report Abuse

sslee...u don't believe me?........your mother never teach u not to go lunch dates with lousy company?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 05:39 | Report Abuse

Nigeria is very different from other parts of Africa. FYI, the John agyeum is already deployed in Africa as well. Already money earning.

>>>>>
qqq3 > Feb 28, 2019 08:03 PM | Report Abuse X

better go check whether Nigeria will take them to holland...........don't ask them........check yourself. what if there is revolution In Nigeria? capital controls? Default?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 06:28 | Report Abuse

There is no winning you. All you see is still share price, share price, share price. Why are you still stuck with level 1 thinking? Can't you think about the business itself first and let the share price take care of itself? Do you suddenly sell your subang shop lot in front of Tailors that you are renting for 15k month just because suddenly someone offer you 5 million for it?(when you bought it for 1 million?) When you know if you can hold it for 20 more years it will be worth much more?

The secret to business has always been about earnings and revenue, the growth of which is the Fundamental of share price increase. If the revenue and earnings has shown that it can grow with COMPOUNDED RETAINED EARNINGS consistently with bigger and bigger value without losses or reduction in yearly revenue, and if it doing so in a efficient manner, you should take a deep look into the company.

These are the BASIC salient points if QL ( the things that matter)

1. QL is growing efficiently in the biggest market in the world (consumer food production) that has
A) a HUGE market size( compare semiconductor manufacturing market to palm oil market, poultry and egg market, marine production market. Which do you think is the bigger pie?)
B) cutthroat margins and requirements to be integrated vertically to be successful ( anyone can make hot chocolate, not everyone can be Nestle)
C) HUGE CAPEX requirements where size and volume efficiency trumps all. Aka 1 hectare with own palm oil refinery is stupid. 15,000 hectare with own palm oil refinery is a minimum to be successful. How many planters can do that?

2.QL has grown for 20 YEARS WITHOUT LOSSES. It has become VERTICALLY INTEGRATED, making huge money when companies that started far far earlier like LAYHONG and cck are still stuck in penny stock size.

3.QL has show a TALENT FOR DIVERSIFYING. Not like INSAS which diversify into loss making companies, businesses that they have no competence or skill in managing ( biotech, fintech, car rental, fashion), but DIVERSIFYING INTO STRONG, GROWING POWERFUL BUSINESSES like family Mart, layered farming, Marine processing, of palm oil activities. All businesses within their SCOPE OF COMPETENCE. And competent they have been. They started as a company selling feedstocks, collecting and trading fishmeal. And turned it into a 11 billion dollar industry. While LAYHONG is such as a few hundred million dollar company in years of mismanagement.

4. QL has never given you any doubt that it can continue to perform. It has given you ALL TIME HIGH REVENUE AND NETT PROFIT. It did 215 million last year and will probably do 250 million earnings this year. This matters. Consistent ROE for 20 years running MEANS something.

5.Ask yourself, any company that can keep growing COMPOUNDED EARNINGS is a wonderful company. Nta wise, INSAS I think has 1.6 billion in net assets (which spent frivolously won't be there any longer). In 2017, it used that 1.6 billion in net assets to produce 350 million in revenue, 90 million in earnings.
Ql in 2017, used 1.8 billion in net assets to produce 3 billion in revenue and 200 million in earnings.

What happens in this financial year? Do you think INSAS will overperform and do better with it's retained earnings? I know what QL is doing. It is doing the best it can for it's shareholders (70% being his own self) by managing everything as efficiently as possible and with lowest risk.

I stick along for the ride. I've been investing in QL since 2009 with all my assets. It has been a Carly rewarding ride.

You have been investing in INSAS since 2016. Has it been financially rewarding?

I think if you are emotionally invested in INSAS b because you have lost a lot buying it at rm1. And now that it is at rm0.8, you are happy, but still overall losing some money or break even.

But take a deep breath, stand back and be unemotional. Don't fall in love with your stock. Fall in love with the performance of your stock. If the stock is not performing, fall out of love and start reading

I find your disinterest in reading about investing and business disconcerting. Perhaps you should invest in index funds instead?


>>>>>
QL market price on 28th FEB 2019: RM6.90, an increase of 40% is this not running ahead of Fundamental?

Posted by 5354_ > 2019-03-01 06:40 | Report Abuse

Even EPS grow 10%(2019 but 2020,2021 still possible?) is PE 50 justified?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 06:46 | Report Abuse

FYI, SSLEE don't think take this as me trying to promote ql to you. I could give a flying fox damn if you Bought QL at these prices or not. I'm not asking you to buy QL, ( it would be far better for me if traders start away from QL for as long as possible). I'm trying to change your mode of thinking in buying the stock market.

I have bought and never sold ql since 2009, because if all the salient points above. The last purchase I made was December 2018 @6.25 for 50k shares.

You keep trying to compare QL to INSAS as if there is some comparison. There is none.

Nearly same net assets deployed. 1.9 billion versus 1.6 billion.
This quarter, QL is 978 million with 75 million earnings.
This quarter, INSAS is 56 million with 8 million earnings.

Question is, what can you do with INSAS? Can you forced him to sell those unused assets? INSAS is still holding unto unutilized funds from it's rights issue generated in 2015, even until today. It pumps the capital raised into Pacific rental ( still losing money today), fashion ( barely making end meet), sengenics ( zero earnings or revenue generation), numoni( money burned and wasted), dgsb( 30% stake in a loss making company with limited prospects). Insolent in hohup ( small sized developer with horrible assets).

But you still practise 1st level thinking that they have 1.6 billion so things just be good. Here is some news based on long experience. You will never sniff that 1.6 billion. It will never be given to you. Sooner or later management will cut dividends if prospects don't improve. Each quarter they cut their golden goose inari up for parts until one day no more golden eggs can be found.

And then what will you have? More weird investments into businesses that are not succeeding or earning money. Not buckets into the ocean looking for the next INARI.

Good luck. SSLEE, don't go on margin. Please. As a fellow UM graduate, if things become difficult, I won't be borrowing you money, but I will give you lifelong good advice.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-01 07:23 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Valuation is base on fundamental in relation to price, so never keep the price out of sight. Of cause something like family, friendship, integrity, trustworthiness and other things in life that you truly love/enjoy/practice and treasure the most is priceless. Hence I do not have any objection if you value the QL CEO trustworthiness as priceless and hence fall in love in QL.

As of your judgment on me “I find your disinterest in reading about investing and business disconcerting”. Please read the below link and tell me Peter Lynch was wrong to conclude that a fairly valued growth company will have its PEG equal to 1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratio
In general, the P/E ratio is higher for a company with a higher growth rate. Thus, using just the P/E ratio would make high-growth companies appear overvalued relative to others. It is assumed that by dividing the P/E ratio by the earnings growth rate, the resulting ratio is better for comparing companies with different growth rates.[1]

The PEG ratio is considered to be a convenient approximation. It was originally developed by Mario Farina who wrote about it in his 1969 Book, A Beginner's Guide To Successful Investing In The Stock Market.[2] It was later popularized by Peter Lynch, who wrote in his 1989 book One Up on Wall Street that "The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate", i.e., a fairly valued company will have its PEG equal to 1.

By the way thank you for your advice “Good luck. SSLEE, don't go on margin”. For your information, I am debt-free investing my 1/3 cash holding in share market and waiting for market to crash so that I can pick up wonderful companies at a fraction of its price.

Once again thank you
P/S: I am not going to reply your questions on INSAS now as I prefer to answer any question throws at me during Q&A session from the attendees during Investment Bloggers day 2019.

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-03-01 07:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 07:29 | Report Abuse

You have crystal ball? If don't have, look at QL track record since 2000, until today. Has it ever not grown? Has it ever lost money? If you put in the growth rates, in 10 years from now, how much will the eps be? Has it ever given you any doubt in it's earnings growth?

Nosh. Eps net assets
1,623,161 10.69. 1,915,330. (* Ytd. With one more quarter left to go)
1,622,438 12.71. 1,800,906
1,247,904 15.70. 1,747,066
1,247,660 15.39. 1,597,005
1,247,838 15.34. 1,422,536

2010
391,463 27.1 501,536



You have family Mart growth. Vietnam and Indonesia growth. Marine international growth especially ramp up for Japan Olympics in 2020.

If layhong don't perform I can understand. QL already performing for you every year. Why not stick for the ride?

If you bought ql in 2010, your purchase price will get you asset+ business+ license+ workers.

you bought a shoplot valued 450k that gave you 100 k every year. And the best workers in the market included for free.
2017, your shop lot is now valued 1.8 million and it gives you higher rental of 200k every year. Worth it?
In 2018, your shop lot valued at 1.9 million, and rental expected this year of 240k this year.

When you buy QL for 50pe, you not only buy the earnings every year. You buy the assets, the management, the future growth. The good will. The monopolistic nature.

If I told you that you would be paying top dollar for a growing Malaysian Nestle, you would laugh. But it would also be true.

Expensive yes. But will people let it go for less?

I wouldnt let go my shoplot in subang ss15 in front of INTI if you paid me 8 million for it. But 50 million of course la....

>>>>>>
Even EPS grow 10%(2019 but 2020,2021 still possible?) is PE 50 justified?

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-03-01 07:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 07:43 | Report Abuse

If you looking for cheap deals, go buy INSAS.

Location not so good la, in jinjang.
Shoplot valued around 1.6 million, rental 92 million a year.
But the tenants sometimes borrow money from you. ( warrants, rights issue).
And I heard they selling off their daughter inari to an arranged marriage somewhere. To bad every year she helps warm for the family 40k to pay off the rental. Once she is gone no more money to pay for the rental. So have to start selling parts of the shop I guess.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 07:47 | Report Abuse

Not if your tenant is MacDonald's or Starbucks. Directly opposite INTI college. Opening 24/7.

Which again brings me back to my point,

Average companies for wonderful prices.
Or wonderful companies for fair prices.

Your choice.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 07:50 | Report Abuse

Btw, I'm just giving example the Starbucks lot doesn't actually belong to me. Just an example.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 07:51 | Report Abuse

I don't buy properties, I have to pay tax on rental income.

I stick to stocks. Almost the same thing if you think about it.

No tax.

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-03-01 07:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 07:57 | Report Abuse

Inflation? Ql is 19.5% growth year on year.

Other people want to sell you their share of the shoplot for 50pe, up to them. I ask them, sell my subang inti Starbucks rented shoplot and buy what?

That nasi goreng shop next door selling for 1.6 millions? No thanks INSAS.

Got future meh?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-01 08:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 08:05 | Report Abuse

Btw SSLEE,

I won't be going. I have better things to do in life like bringing my wife to eat seafood breakfast konloumee in simsim Sandakan ( highly recommended, but you need to be there by 5, at 8am all sold out closed shop)

But if you can help me answer a few questions.

How much is numoni generating and earning?
How much is sengenics revenue and earnings?
What is management reasoning in buying dgsb with money generated from selling INARI shares?
What is management reasoning in selling INARI shares with it's consistent dividend every quarter? What purpose is there in killing their golden goose? What are they buying with that capital?

Thank you.

P.s if can be more blunt, as them wtf happened with that Mongolian vigcash thing? Who invested in that Mongolian?

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-01 08:10 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
If you buy a million worth of QL at current price of RM 6.90, no need crystal ball to tell you how much expected dividend (rental) you will get in 1 year time. As of capital appreciation then you need Philip to look into his Chun-Chun crystal ball to tell you.
Refer:
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchdr/0166.jsp
DATO' SRI THONG KOK KHEE 04-Jan-2019 Acquired 1,000,000 1.235
DATO' SRI THONG KOK KHEE 03-Jan-2019 Acquired 1,000,000 1.254
DATO' SRI THONG KOK KHEE 03-Jan-2019 Acquired 200,000 1.250
Insas holding on Inari is now at 19.3%

Thank you.
P/S: Calvintaneng’s Chun-Chun crystal ball sure fall in predicting share price of growth companies.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-01 08:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 08:24 | Report Abuse

So funny, you didn't notice he is acting on his own behalf, he make INSAS sell good company inari into profit himself directly?

Market price of 1.47, sell directly to him for 1.43.

Transferring dividends and future of good inari from INSAS to others.
Why at 1.235 did they not make INSAS but more shares in INARI instead? They would have made 30 cents profit?

Why director personally buy? Not INSAS?

I pity the company where the management is not acting in shareholder best interests.

>>>>>

Director's Particular:
Name DATO' SRI THONG KOK KHEE
Details of Changes:
Currency -
Date of Change Type Number of Shares Price
26-Dec-2018 Disposed 10,000,000 1.430
Registered Name Insas Technology Berhad
Nature of Interest Indirect Interest
Consideration RM1.43 per share
26-Dec-2018 Acquired 10,000,000 1.430
Registered Name M & A Nominee (Asing) Sdn Bhd for Media Lang Limited
Nature of Interest Indirect Interest
Consideration RM1.43 per share

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 08:25 | Report Abuse

Note how I never said INARI was a bad company. I said INSAS is a lousy one. Just because insas share 19.3%(and dropping) exposure to INARI and they sounds kinda similar, it does not make INARI= INSAS.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 08:30 | Report Abuse

SSLEE,

Don't mistake dividends and earnings.

Dividends should only be given if the company cannot grow their earnings better with reinvested capital. Aka, too much money, cannot reinvest, give back to shareholders.

Earnings is a measure of what the company is doing by deploying the equity efficiently.

You look at QL small dividend and you see bad company.

If small dividend is bad company, then Berkshire Hathaway must be a crook!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 09:47 | Report Abuse

sorry to interrupt uncles, but i think some good businesses, you just can't put a number on it.

Posted by Sslee > 2019-03-01 10:18 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
You read but you fail to see and quick to pass your prejudiced judgement.
Media Lang Limited: 100% effective equity: Investment in securities. Country of incorporation: Hong Kong
Insas Technology Berhad: 100% effective equity. Investment holding and provision of management services, provision of information technology and consultancy services and trading of electronic and telecommunications related products and other trading business. Country of incorporation: Malaysia
Net financial assets/ (liabilities) HK dollar equivalent to RM 51,351,000

Thank you

Dear 3iii,
Thank for your honest input” My honest input sslee?
Are you sure you want to be doing investment talks and teaching investors how to buy INSAS?

I am not teaching investors/attendees how to buy INSAS. I am sharing my knowledge on what is FA, TA, Business sense and intrinsic value and how to read Annual report. I am taking my responsibility seriously and using INSAS Annual report as teaching material because so many people include you do not understand what subsidiary companies and associated companies are? How revenue accounted from? What are other incomes? What are other operation expenses? What is a financial asset at fair value through profit or loss? What gain/loss on fair value changes of financial assets at fair value through profit or loss is? What do 19.3% holding on INARI mean? And finally why INSAS invest in subsidiary companies doing biotech, Fintech, IT services. Example DGSB( ISS Consulting, Digital Media , IT Technical & Maintenance, IT Managed Services ,Telco Infrastructure – where it provides a comprehensive suite of communications network solutions and related services and has formed long-term strategic partnerships with leading technology providers such as Ciena, Cisco, Huawei, Juniper and Extreme Networks to provide a rich portfolio of solutions to the end customers.

So as I said before, “I hope to do justice to INSAS by presenting INSAS in a way that is fair, accurate and shows its true qualities and value to the attendees” Is it my hope that all will invest in whatever share they want base on informed decision. I rest my case

Thank you

Posted by Avangelice > 2019-03-01 10:21 | Report Abuse

can you guys stick to talking about QL instead of arguing about other counters here?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-01 10:26 | Report Abuse

icap....$5 million invested in Padini, unrealised profits $ 100 milion, every thing else they do in last 10 years is meaningless. Question is how a guy like TTB managed to sit on it and enjoy a 20 bagger.......? It turns out, they were good friends. It helps.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 11:37 | Report Abuse

Sorry avangers, my fault.

It is my opinion that QL will continue to do well in the coming quarters and coming years and fulfill my belief that QL is a wonderful company.

I find that I have to correct btw investors who don't know how to value a wonderful business but still insist to tell me to sell my QL shares to buy INSAS.

I am staying put. I am seeking to buy more shares of QL at an opportunity that presents itself when I receive my ever growing share dividends.

Hopefully I get to pay a fair price for a wonderful company.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-01 14:46 | Report Abuse

I think you mean to say Overvalued Price for a Wonderful Company

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 14:49 | Report Abuse

wrong

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-01 15:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-01 15:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-01 15:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by 3iii > Mar 1, 2019 03:17 PM | Report Abuse

I put insas into the same group as Berjaya Corp.
========

difficult? hell, no, its not difficult....Philips has done a fine job slicing it apart...........Berjaya is difficult.

Insas is worth more dead than alive who is going to be the undertaker? The comparison is with Icap, not Berjaya.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-03-01 16:09 | Report Abuse

Probably will be more enlightening for the audience if the speaker does a comparative study between value investing and growth investing (both being the opposite sides of the same coin), with 2 named companies.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-01 16:37 | Report Abuse

no need to compare, don't buy shares worth more dead than alive...u die already also company have not died.


buy a share to participate in its growth...as the bursa is originally intended to be.....there are no hostile take overs and asset stripping in Malaysia .....no point trying to arbitrage.................


in last two months...KYY makes millions and millions on Carimin and Dayang already......................

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-01 16:46 | Report Abuse

buy shares worth more dead than alive............that is reserved for novice only while in Malaysia...........

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 19:39 | Report Abuse

This is how you die.

If its a wonderful business, its worth stretching for 10-20% more than what you'd normally be willing.

Not 300-400% more.
====
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 1, 2019 09:47 AM | Report Abuse

sorry to interrupt uncles, but i think some good businesses, you just can't put a number on it.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 19:44 | Report Abuse

Choivo boy, we'll see in 10 years where QL is and compare to your top pick RCECap Deal?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 21:38 | Report Abuse

No Jon,

How you die is overestimating the value of PETRONM by chasing the price up from 6.7 to 7.5 by thinking that PETRONM will do well over time. It cannot do well, it will never do well over time. The thin profit margins from the crack spread of crude oil margins coupled with statutory plant shutdown periods are an uncontrollable part of long term hit on earnings.

What we have in QL is all time high revenue, all time high earnings and 20 years of profitable growth. Understandably, as the investing crowd had put a pe50 mark on QL they are expecting QL to perform further before putting more trust into them. It gives me more time to collect more. Better yet.

I have had no reason to doubt the possibility of it's growth long term. QL has yet to disappoint me (unlike rcecap in 2013-2014, or petronm 2013-2014 and recently.)

I know what the growth triggers are for QL, and they are hitting on all cylinders looking at this quarter results. I'm 5 years family Mart will have 200 stores. Vietnam expansion will be fully ongoing with the same business integration. Indonesia expansion will be fully ongoing. The market is wide, the growth potential is clear as day.

It is the clearest easiest business to understand in my portfolio. All I need to know is to buy when I have my dividends and more money, and monitor the company performance carefully. The earnings, share price and revenue will catch up sooner or later to my expectations. If every year I can add 20 million+ in earnings on average, in 10 years I would be looking at 400 + million in earnings. That is compounded retained earnings.

I only need to worry about how the company is doing and growing. If the share price drops, even better for me. I can buy more at cheaper price.

Start with the business first, it's revenue growth and it's earnings growth. Dividends and share buybacks will come, or bigger business diversification opportunities will arrive.

It usually does for wonderful companies.

Don't sweat the share price.

The share price will take care of itself in the long run.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 21:41 | Report Abuse

Yealor that's what I said mah, good businesses you just can't put number around it, then this Choivo boy say that's how I die wor, so rude lah this child

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 21:47 | Report Abuse

FYI I knew exactly that QL would have all time revenue and all time earnings this year, in the previous quarterly report QL management had already hinted that.

Did you know exactly if petronm would lose money this quarter? No you didn't. Otherwise you would have immediately sold all your shares when it was at 7.50. and bought back when it drops to rm6.20. later this month.

But no one has a crystal ball, except Calvin tan. Did you know that petronm would have crashed from 13.54 in 2017? did you know your hengyuan would crash as well in 2017? Luckily you didn't for then, only lost some money but high chase high.

No one knows what the share price will go in the short term.

But in the long term everyone knows what happens to companies that continue to increase it's revenues and earnings over a long period of time.

UP.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 21:58 | Report Abuse

This is what I told you would happen in January,I already expected QL to do well. Any nasty surprises? None?

Why? This is a clockwork business. You know exactly what they are doing where they are going.

>>>>>

Although I hope that story doesn't change, so far I am confident. But of course will still find out during the next quarter result announcement.

So even if you are doing technical trading, I am still looking at:

1 billion revenue, 75 million net profit (average for dec quarter sales 7.5% consistently over 9 years), which will be their highest profit margin ever.

So if that is the case, I don't see any reason why I would sell like a overstimulated cactus.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-01 21:59 | Report Abuse

buy a share to participate in its growth...as the bursa is originally intended to be.....there are no hostile take overs and asset stripping in Malaysia .....no point trying to arbitrage.................

we see that in novices like sslee and that boy choi.

Posted by sell > 2019-03-01 22:07 | Report Abuse

2 IBs' said sell after QR. Many still promote bec stucked buying at high price?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:09 | Report Abuse

Again, i dont give half a damn for the refinery.

Thats not where i see the value.


====
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 1, 2019 09:38 PM | Report Abuse

No Jon,

How you die is overestimating the value of PETRONM by chasing the price up from 6.7 to 7.5 by thinking that PETRONM will do well over time. It cannot do well, it will never do well over time. The thin profit margins from the crack spread of crude oil margins coupled with statutory plant shutdown periods are an uncontrollable part of long term hit on earnings.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:12 | Report Abuse

I know you see the value in the marketing business mah correct

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:13 | Report Abuse

what is your fair value for QL ah Choivo boy, I am curious. My own DCF model yielded only RM 3.54, but I still buy coz I am stupid I think

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:13 | Report Abuse

The same people said this for GE.

At the end of the day, paying for an all to high price can wipe out a decade of business improvement.

Ask old amazon shareholders who bought at 89 in 2000, and see it drop to 7.50. Took a decade for them to recover. We all know what happened now. I doubt they are more than even 1% of the shareholders then who held till now.

Except, the same fools who bought amazon then, probably also bought CISCO, WEBVAN etc, and got their ass kicked to kingdom come.

I'm not a person who wishes for an old retiree to lose his retirement fund, so i wish you luck. But you will need a ton of it.

=====
Start with the business first, it's revenue growth and it's earnings growth. Dividends and share buybacks will come, or bigger business diversification opportunities will arrive.

It usually does for wonderful companies.

Don't sweat the share price.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:15 | Report Abuse

but GE is because they do share buybacks at the wrong time mah.... and keep taking on excessive debt, so this is different case lo. This one is consumer staple business wor. Then if I buy Nestle also die lah is it?