Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 22:16 | Report Abuse

Thinking about it again, it's actually scary to think how good you can be if you stick within your circle of competence and stick to buying and monitoring one wonderful stock for 10 years.

I predicted 1 billion of revenue, 75 million net profit this quarter. How many IB analysts can be that good?

Sadly though, my next prediction will be not so good for QL. It will still be profitable, it will still grow. But the fourth quarter will be slightly less profitable than December quarter. Target is 240 million of earnings to close out 2018 financial year. Which will be more than 2018 profit of 206 million.

Believe me?

I will never predict share price ( only idiots do). I predict earnings and business advantages.I predict if the business model will fall or succeed 10 years from now. I can predict upcoming challenges for the company, and what will happen depending on what the do to meet the challenge.

My long term prediction, QL will keep growing for the next 10 years.

Slow and steady.

>>>>>>
OK CALVIN! I WILL FOLLOW YOU SELL!! NOW CAN YOU STOP IT WITH THE CAPSLOCKS? YOU SOUND LIKE A OVERACTIVE CHILD!

emotional people should really stop investing in stock market. they get too worried and stressed out over short term ups and downs in the stock market.

At the very least, you should wait until the dec quarter report when guidance is out before you decide to buy or sell.

For me I am holding on to my stock. From my 9 years of experience holding QL stock, december quarter is usually the best in terms of either volume revenue growth or net profit growth for QL.

Why? Because for december quarter usually, sales for christmas and chinese new year is very good for seafood, eggs and chickens, and palm oil derivatives. If you dont believe me, you can check the figures yourself. Now add that to their new expansion from the hutan melintang frozen and chilled factory factory running at max capacity,the shrimp and seafood export to australia for christmas, the china and us trade war. QL will have a big export market to supply in the short term. The longer the china and us trade war, the better for the other asean countries.

So far I have not heard any low seafood catch supply drop, no bird flu, culled chickens and slowing demand for eggs and chickens, palm oil price still holding steady at 2.1k and going up. in fact, the recent culling of poultry among the leading suppliers of poultry seems to be indicative for a good quarter coming up for QL.

Although I hope that story doesn't change, so far I am confident. But of course will still find out during the next quarter result announcement.

So even if you are doing technical trading, I am still looking at:

1 billion revenue, 75 million net profit (average for dec quarter sales 7.5% consistently over 9 years), which will be their highest profit margin ever.

So if that is the case, I don't see any reason why I would sell like a overstimulated cactus.

Unless you think, hartalega, topglove and ql sell the same thing? hartalega should have a pe reset, they are overpriced due to specializing only in nitrile gloves (with china stabilizing their gloves production) and if you didnt notice the delivery times dropping from (from 70 days to 30+ days) indicating that the demand for rubber gloves in returning back to normal levels, then you have another thing going in stock evaluation.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:19 | Report Abuse

Choivoboy, give you one more example, you said Ahealth was expensive at 8.50, look where it is now?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:23 | Report Abuse

Did your crystal ball that told you Jan will be great also tell you that 2015 to March 2018 growth will only be less than 1.8% CAGR?

And you held it despite that?

I did know, but i kept it, because its worth alot more to me. Did you know sees candy losses money 3 quarters a year? Imagine the stock price if it was listed!

I don't trade, or do short term moves period. At best i lean on it. Which was why i kept some money in the tank for a top up.

Since your wonderful crystal ball tells you whenever Ql will post good or bad result every quarter, did you sell all 2 million shares in say may 2016 and buy back etc etc ?

God, i would love to be your remisier. When you sell, you do 13 mil in one trade! Just to punt quarter!

I bought Petronm at 7.8. At 13 it was arnd fair value for me, so i sold half. Kept the rest, because i liked the biz. Averaged down from 7.5 to 6.

Why is it great? find out yourself. I don't share good ideas, they are rare.

HY i sold all and bought again at 9, and averaged down a little at 4.6 or so. Its just a small position, just because i think the new management is pretty decent and valuation is depressed. Not banking so much on a wonderful industry.

====
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 1, 2019 09:47 PM | Report Abuse

FYI I knew exactly that QL would have all time revenue and all time earnings this year, in the previous quarterly report QL management had already hinted that.

Did you know exactly if petronm would lose money this quarter? No you didn't. Otherwise you would have immediately sold all your shares when it was at 7.50. and bought back when it drops to rm6.20. later this month.

But no one has a crystal ball, except Calvin tan. Did you know that petronm would have crashed from 13.54 in 2017? did you know your hengyuan would crash as well in 2017? Luckily you didn't for then, only lost some money but high chase high.

No one knows what the share price will go in the short term.

But in the long term everyone knows what happens to companies that continue to increase it's revenues and earnings over a long period of time.

UP.

This is what I told you would happen in January,I already expected QL to do well. Any nasty surprises? None?

Why? This is a clockwork business. You know exactly what they are doing where they are going.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 22:24 | Report Abuse

FYI choivo,

I put 200k shares of STNE (NYSE) done at usd19. Guess where the price is now? 22% of my focused portfolio, including margin.

That is 2000 lots. At usd19. I put Q to my R.

You bought a "little". Sad to be right when you have no exposure long term.

Maybe you should try focused investing one day, instead of holding 30-50 stocks and knowing next to nothing about them.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:27 | Report Abuse

The same people said hk property was expensive in 2016, saw market prices go from expensive, to stupid expensive to OMG SO FUCKING STUPID EXPENSIVE.

Even Goldman sachs in HK literally moved to a cheaper area.

Same people said about this in Japan in 1990's. There, stock PE regularly above 100, and even 300. Remisiers were so confident, they even guarantee the price.

The land near the japan palace was at 0.5% yield and below.

We saw what happened next. 2 decades lost. 2 decades of stagflation.

I dont care where the price go, i just find out what its worth to me, and buy it when its at a big discount and as good an opportunity as my best pick.

Thats it. Not my job to rely on stupid people to do stupider things.


====
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 1, 2019 10:19 PM | Report Abuse

Choivoboy, give you one more example, you said Ahealth was expensive at 8.50, look where it is now?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 22:28 | Report Abuse

I don't punt.

I don't buy or sell like a overstimulated cactus.

I invest like watching paint dry.

Only you would think of catching things, buying low selling high can make money.

Funny. You seem to forget that I buy and hold wonderful stocks for a very very long time.

As long as the overall story doesn't change.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:29 | Report Abuse

Man I stand with Philip here, concentrated and potent, best solution to all problems, whether it is drugs, alcohol or investing - that's the way to go man, I would go with Vodka rather than Beer

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:32 | Report Abuse

30% in rce, 20% in petron, 15% timecom, 8% airasia, 10% in stone, another 17% in the remaining 18 co's or so.

That's 83% in top 5.

You really are old, i keep telling you the same thing, but you seem to have reading comprehension problems.

Must be that wounded ego getting in your eye.

Does not feel good when you don't have a good answer to the critiques of a young boy eh ;)

Congrats, your QL with this q, went from growing CAGR 1.88% in 4 years to 2.2%!

My god, half of GDP, wonderful performance for a company i'm paying 50 times earnings. Lets break out the champagne, and have the wife wear the special underwear tonight!

===


Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 1, 2019 10:24 PM | Report Abuse

FYI choivo,

I put 200k shares of STNE (NYSE) done at usd19. Guess where the price is now? 22% of my focused portfolio, including margin.

That is 2000 lots. At usd19. I put Q to my R.

You bought a "little". Sad to be right when you have no exposure long term.

Maybe you should try focused investing one day, instead of holding 30-50 stocks and knowing next to nothing about them.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:38 | Report Abuse

Phillip, sounds smart, until he starts defending QL!

Haha, if that is not emotion talking, i have no idea what it is.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:40 | Report Abuse

hmm but ah Choivo boy, if he starts defending Nestle, will you react the same way also? That one also PE 50+

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 22:42 | Report Abuse

Sure. Whatever you say.

I think we have established you know nothing about QL business except past figures and not future potential.

As to your suddenly 10% exposure to STNE ( I assume you bought that, because if you bought 7143 Bursa stone you are fucked). I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

Good luck.

This is how you die long term. Diversification is a protection against ignorance. I'll keep track of this list and see how well you do in 2 years.
30% in rce, 20% in petron, 15% timecom, 8% airasia, 10% in stone, another 17% in the remaining 18 co's or so.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:42 | Report Abuse

Nope. I dont think nestle is a good buy at this price, not even close.

Read up on general mills, heinz, modelez, unilevel and kelogg etc in overseas market.

Some are better than nestle, and selling at half the valuation.

Let me tell you something, nestle listed in switzerland, is at 27 time earnings, here is at 50.

For a highly saturated market.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:45 | Report Abuse

I'll keep track of yours.

You know what, lets make a small bet for fun.

You come up with a 10 year list, and ill come up with mine, lets keep it close to our current portfolios.

Loser at the end of 10 years donates 20k to the charity of the other persons choice, or just pay cash.

===
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Mar 1, 2019 10:42 PM | Report Abuse

Sure. Whatever you say.

I think we have established you know nothing about QL business except past figures and not future potential.

As to your suddenly 10% exposure to STNE ( I assume you bought that, because if you bought 7143 Bursa stone you are fucked). I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

Good luck.

This is how you die long term. Diversification is a protection against ignorance. I'll keep track of this list and see how well you do in 2 years.
30% in rce, 20% in petron, 15% timecom, 8% airasia, 10% in stone, another 17% in the remaining 18 co's or so.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:45 | Report Abuse

Hmmm but ah you know they say maybe they trust the milo so much that's why PE 50+ .... Wah you two make me very confused now. Now I dunno how to follow already... PChem PE 10++ no overvalue gua that one I think...

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:45 | Report Abuse

No selling at any point, dividends may be reinvested to other stocks.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:46 | Report Abuse

10 year very long nvm, I be your judge HAHAHAH I help you keep track!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:46 | Report Abuse

PETCHEM is ok. I just have better opportunities.

Why not TSMC in taiwan instead, way way way better business, and cheaper too!


===
Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 1, 2019 10:45 PM | Report Abuse

Hmmm but ah you know they say maybe they trust the milo so much that's why PE 50+ .... Wah you two make me very confused now. Now I dunno how to follow already... PChem PE 10++ no overvalue gua that one I think...

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:47 | Report Abuse

what broker you use to buy Earth stocks ah? I only access to Bursa leh.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:47 | Report Abuse

Lets keep the bet KLSE only, easier to track via this forum.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 22:47 | Report Abuse

Interactive brokers.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 22:49 | Report Abuse

oh okay thanks Choivo boy, correct KLSE only, come come Choivo what's your pick? and Master Philip what's your pick?

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 22:57 | Report Abuse

Choi yi kit likes to use big words and rude phrases like this is how you die to make himself look smart. But when he starts talking you know immediately it's like a young IB who is book smart but knows little about real world trying to make everything fit into his understanding and when everything falls apart he doesn't know why.

Short term,
I was right about PCHEM in a big way. I was right about STNE, in a big way.
Mid term,
I was right about yinson. I was right about public bank.
Long term,
I was right about QL. I was right about TOPGLOV.

I bought my shares at a good price, and things are going well. I don't need to be emotional to tell you that you are wrong, and I am still right about QL. And the year is still young. Try comparing results year to year. 19.5% growth year on year. If you bought at 6.25 December like I told you to, you would be smiling ear to ear.

I don't have a wounded ego.

Sounds like you do.

Maybe you should think about what you say before telling everyone this is how you die without any results to show for it.

Good luck kid. Hope your next "investor" report works out well.

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-01 22:59 | Report Abuse

Phillip shying away from a bet I see

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 23:03 | Report Abuse

Outliar talking like he knows what to invest in I see.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 23:05 | Report Abuse

calm down everybody, don't fight. Master Philip a question for you, if Yinson propose to takeover Armada what will you do? Assuming that Armada agrees to be taken over.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 23:10 | Report Abuse

Anyway my answer is easy.

Choivo, why don't you make it public.
Go set it up on longbets.org

Use my these exact 5 stocks.

PCHEM
TOPGLOV
QL
STNE
YINSON

Assume 100K divided into the stocks fairly distributed
Reinvest all dividends into the same stocks, and monitor over a period of 5 years and 10 years (just so you don't forget)
At the end of which we add the total sum value of reinvestment and profit gained.

You can put whatever amount you want as a bet, I won't bother to collect from you.

I am probably the only investor on i3 who buys my stocks with a mental model of what will happen 10 years from now to the industry anyway.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 23:11 | Report Abuse

Phillip,

Don't insult me by calling me an investment banker! hahaha. I also right about PBBANK wor, must be 20% as good as you now!

Results? Well look back towards the 150 odd years of history of the markets, and well, its just logic.

For a guy who spouts his buffet, munger, lynch and graham when talking about investing.

You sure sound like a Ackman when talking about QL! Espeacially when ackman talks about Valeant! And he attend Berkshire AGMs all the time too!

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 23:12 | Report Abuse

YINSON will never take over Armada. Too much mess to clear. They are too smart for that. So I don't have to worry.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-03-01 23:16 | Report Abuse

Phillip,

I'm not going to pay 50 USD to put a bet, and then pay another 10k USD into escrow.

I'm not in my sixties. I do well for my age, but not enough to compete financially now with an old man who made his money in his fifties.

You know what, you have 4 Malaysian Co's there.

Lets Make it KLSE only.

Start on 4/3/2019. Im busy saturday.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 23:20 | Report Abuse

Choivo bla bla bla.

For a professed long term value investor you sure seem to have a lot of knowledge and know so much more than I do.

I won't ask for much, can you tell me 1 stock that you held for more than 1 year than had good performance? In terms of share price increase, revenue growth and earnings growth over 4 quarters?

See? I didn't even ask if you held any good performance stock over 5 years or 10 years?

Long term value investors let their results do the talking.

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-01 23:25 | Report Abuse

Let's make it one stock. KLSE. Put it in your annual letter to your investors. I'll start one in i3.
10 years, reinvest all dividends into the stock. 100K. Use today share price.

I put in my newest investment, PCHEM. 9.27

Shiny and easy enough for you?

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-01 23:27 | Report Abuse

100k into PChem @ 9.27 / share - Master Philip

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-01 23:31 | Report Abuse

Battle of the Egos,

RCE v PCHEM

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-02 01:42 | Report Abuse

Insas down graded from equity accounting on Inari to dividends will hit its earnings.....
will SSLee embarrass himself in front of a crowd?

Posted by Avangelice > 2019-03-02 09:23 | Report Abuse

guys wtf go to other counters and talk about them. stop spamming here

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-02 16:51 | Report Abuse

QL forum police is back, wee wooo wee woo wee wooo

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-04 11:59 | Report Abuse

since choivo didn't make a choice, I will assume it is his 32% stock choice RCE cap or he only knows how to talk big and act rude, but has no focus and quality behind his gumption.

Too bad.

Kids these days. Wasting time.

>>>>>

You know what, lets make a small bet for fun.

You come up with a 10 year list, and ill come up with mine, lets keep it close to our current portfolios.

Loser at the end of 10 years donates 20k to the charity of the other persons choice, or just pay cash.

===

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-04 12:08 | Report Abuse

boy choi will not last 10 years..........they get burn out before 10 years,.............

Posted by Outliar > 2019-03-04 14:38 | Report Abuse

Philip has laid down the gauntlet

Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > 2019-03-10 09:20 | Report Abuse

My quarterly report for ql

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/phillipinvesting/197011.jsp

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-10 16:07 | Report Abuse

me most confident of this counter, delicious ice cream, i only support company that produce products i love

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-10 16:09 | Report Abuse

all the expensive brands of ice cream are American brands..........lets boycott the American brands and stick to QL ice cream.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-10 16:10 | Report Abuse

why we need American brand ice cream anyway?

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-10 16:19 | Report Abuse

I only like QL Family Mart matcha ice cream, period. No other ice cream, others too much sugar, I scare I will get diabetes.

Posted by cccc > 2019-03-14 14:15 | Report Abuse

Two continuous quarter results with 5.84c and 7.50c. LTKM met KYY golden rule, with potential upside more than 100%.

LTKM — An undervalued poultry stock
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ekorharimau/197163.jsp

Posted by shpg22 > 2019-03-17 13:31 | Report Abuse

KYY golden rule only applied for those stock that he want to goreng. Those that don't, will not rocket up.

Posted by (70B-SAPNRG-3Yrs) Philip > 2019-03-21 07:02 | Report Abuse

Yeah, if koon golden rule is such an easy time that apply to everything, the moment everyone started applying this rule, it will stop being a golden rule and your into an overvalued rule.

You just can't use one simple metric to justify your investing analysis. Investing is not a simple formulaic science that is easily done.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-21 09:39 | Report Abuse

Correct, just FYI, Unkers got a new Family Mart opened in Monash University, business sibeh good, I think I should add more QL Resources to my portfolio.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-21 09:58 | Report Abuse

Heavenly PUNTER > Mar 21, 2019 9:39 AM | Report Abuse

Correct, just FYI, Unkers got a new Family Mart opened in Monash University,
==========


stupid not to because that is the perfect demographics.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-21 10:24 | Report Abuse

Yeah really should expand into every private universities in Malaysia, best customer segment to target.