Posted by tokohM > 2017-06-08 14:35 | Report Abuse

my avg price is 0.81.

Posted by WinnerWay > 2017-06-08 16:45 | Report Abuse

my avg price is 0.75 after bonus issue. Hope i can slowly to accumulate further in coming months with my other share dividend and salary. I strongly believe this stock will shoot up with the new facility. Buy with your own risk!

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-08 16:51 | Report Abuse

Good to see increasing interest in Tomypak.

Just to share this that I chanced upon:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/growth-of-flexible-packaging-market-forecast-at-511-cagr-to-2021-dominated-by-retort-pouches-segment-581056111.html

Extract from the article:

The Asia-Pacific region accounted for the largest share among all the regions in 2015 and is projected to grow at the highest rate from 2016 to 2021. This is mainly due to increasing demand from end-user industries from countries such as China, India, and Japan, coupled with the growing population and increasing disposable income in these countries.

I won't take it as an absolute, given the ever changing global dynamics. Nonetheless, Tomypak has its focus on the Asia Pacific region and which is projected to grow at the highest rate amid other global growth world areas, and hopefully that do justice and exploit its expanded facilities to the fullest.

Haha!

pc_FA @kt888 88, your average price is much lower than me instead :) After few round of Top-up, my average price is around RM 0.75. My last Top-Up is RM 2.45 (or RM 0.98). I will still slowly accumulate if it drop lower etc. This is what I do now :) Hope it helps.

08/06/2017 10:41

kt888 88 hi pc_FA, my avg price became RM0.69 after the bonus issue. now the is RM1, is it a good price to buy now?w

08/06/2017 09:14

Posted by rocky77 > 2017-06-08 16:56 | Report Abuse

Be careful of their coming quarter earning as raw material of polymer (PP/PET) has increased in double digit % since early of 2017 to date.

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-08 17:21 | Report Abuse

I would be more inclined to watch their revenue in tandem with their expanded production facilities. Not sure how does their purchasing work. Given the sizeable quantity they would require for the production, I reckon they could have existing contracts with vendors to supply at certain pre-agreed prices and unlikely to be buying based on spot. Nonetheless, increasing raw mat cost remains a valid concern. Thanks for sharing.


rocky77 Be careful of their coming quarter earning as raw material of polymer (PP/PET) has increased in double digit % since early of 2017 to date.

08/06/2017 16:56

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-08 17:42 | Report Abuse

@rocky77, thanks a lot to share your concern regarding "raw material of polymer (PP/PET) has increased in double digit % since early of 2017 to date." :)

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-08 17:42 | Report Abuse

@ozzie75, You're right :) I agree with your points regarding raw material costs and selling price.
I have read before which stated that they have "mutual agreement" between Tomypak management, vendors and customers regarding raw material cost and selling price.

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-08 17:42 | Report Abuse

Below is my forecast for upcoming 2017Q2 financial result:

Good things:
1. Revenue increase;
2. Increase in local and export sales;
3. Better wastage control and improved operations efficiency;
4. Higher profit margin;

Bad things:
1. Lower foreign currency gain (a weaker MYR versus the USD);
2. Increase in raw material costs (polymer (PP/PET) price);
3. Higher global crude oil prices;

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-08 17:55 | Report Abuse

Usually these raw materials are supplied under long term contracts and in Tomypak's case given its size of operation I am more inclined to believe that their raw material cost is reasonably managed in that manner. In Tomypak's contract to supply to customers, there could be certain clause(s) that allow them to reopen and revisit prior agreed pricing, should certain specified price influencing factors (eg. key ingredient cost, exchange rate) reach certain level, and for Tomypak to present and justify to their customer(s) for a possible selling price adjustment.

My imagination ah. I might be wrong. The increasing raw material cost remain a concern, validly.

Haha!

pc_FA @ozzie75, You're right :) I agree with your points regarding raw material costs and selling price.
I have read before which stated that they have "mutual agreement" between Tomypak management, vendors and customers regarding raw material cost and selling price.

08/06/2017 17:42

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-08 18:35 | Report Abuse

As compare to raw material and selling price, I believe deliver goods on time will be more concern. As it can bring revenue/sales to both Tomypak and their customers directly. It is no easy to maintain long term relationship with customers to gain their trust. That's why I believe expansion plan is a MUST for long term :)

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-09 10:23 | Report Abuse

Indeed. I believe they have earned the credibility in delivery, as endorsed by prominent clients like Ajinomoto, Nestle, Unilever etc, whom I believe adopt stringent vendor pre-qualification and selection processes.

The cost factor will remain a concern, as always, whether is here or anywhere else. No one would invest in a company doing deficit deals or the appointed stewards fail to manage cost reasonably or worse still, have absolute no sense of cost consciousness.

Haha!

pc_FA As compare to raw material and selling price, I believe deliver goods on time will be more concern. As it can bring revenue/sales to both Tomypak and their customers directly. It is no easy to maintain long term relationship with customers to gain their trust. That's why I believe expansion plan is a MUST for long term :)

08/06/2017 18:35

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-09 10:28 | Report Abuse

Kenanga Research about Tomypak:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/125049.jsp

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-09 10:31 | Report Abuse

IB research up-to-date:
CIMB - Reduce - RM 0.75;
Kenanga - Hold - RM 1.00;

Posted by kenken85 > 2017-06-09 11:09 | Report Abuse

pc_FA whats ur TP? haha. what will be the expected dividend after all this diulation. btw i just top up more at 1.00. average up ..

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-09 11:18 | Report Abuse

Haha!

kenken85 pc_FA whats ur TP? haha. what will be the expected dividend after all this diulation. btw i just top up more at 1.00. average up ..

09/06/2017 11:09

pc_FA @Kim Yi Chia

I'm happy if year end can reach the goal below.

After share split and bonus issue:
Stage-1 @ 2017, RM 3++; >> Adjusted RM 1.2++
Stage-2 @ 2018, RM 4++; >> Adjusted RM 1.6++
Stage-3 @ 2021, RM 6++; >> Adjusted RM 2.4++

***It heavily depend on the financial result/PAT/eps and I might adjust (increase/decrease) the TP later.

06/06/2017 20:40

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-09 11:30 | Report Abuse

@kenken85

I'm happy if year end can reach the goal below.

After share split and bonus issue:
Stage-1 @ 2017, RM 3++; >> Adjusted RM 1.2++
Stage-2 @ 2018, RM 4++; >> Adjusted RM 1.6++
Stage-3 @ 2021, RM 6++; >> Adjusted RM 2.4++

***It heavily depend on the financial result/PAT/eps and I might adjust (increase/decrease) the TP later.

I'm happy/satisfy if every three month can up 0.10 :)
My last Top up is at RM 2.45 (or RM 0.98).

For dividend, Tomypak Group’s dividend policy of distributing at least 40% of the Tomypak group’s net profit for the year to shareholders.
Last year is around 65.8% of its PAT.

Assume every quarter can get PAT 6 million and 60% of its PAT as dividend. I believe we can get 1 sen each for the upcoming financial result.
Plus 2017Q1, we already get 2 sen. This year I will expect to get 5 sen.

I might wrong but all this is heavily depend on the financial result/PAT/eps.

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-09 11:34 | Report Abuse

@pc_FA: Really got chemistry ah! Hope to know you in person, one day. Haha!

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-09 11:53 | Report Abuse

@ozzie75, let meet up at next Tomypak agm :P

Posted by kenken85 > 2017-06-09 15:22 | Report Abuse

can meet me up as well?

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-09 15:47 | Report Abuse

@kenken85, sure :) We can have a gathering of i3 Tomypak share holder by that time :P

Posted by hero666 > 2017-06-09 18:11 | Report Abuse

hahahaha @pc_FA, didnt count me in meh ? ahahahahaha

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-09 18:41 | Report Abuse

@hero666, sure. Everyone is welcome. Hehe. Let share whatever info and grow together with Tomypak.

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-09 22:44 | Report Abuse

Features of quality stock:
1. High dividend yield （高股息）
2. Defensive （安全性）
3. Growth （成长）

Posted by hero666 > 2017-06-10 10:31 | Report Abuse

@pc_FA, am so fortunate to have you n ozzie advise over here, prev i'd so much queries for this company, thanks 2u all, can unds this counter better and felt much secure of my investment

Posted by omgimnoob > 2017-06-10 11:03 | Report Abuse

Dividend below 3% not attractive anymore...Wait become 0.50 :)

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-10 13:32 | Report Abuse

@hero666, You are most welcome. I'm happy to learn with everyone here also. The best part of discussion is to understand more and solve all our doubts and concerns.

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-10 13:34 | Report Abuse

@omgimnoob, hope what you said come true. I'm happy to see that and can accumulate more at lower price :P

Posted by necro > 2017-06-11 17:07 | Report Abuse

OVERVALUE...IV before right issue was RM3.40...calculate its value after that+bonus issue..you will find that its value...

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-11 19:44 | Report Abuse

@necro, perhaps you can show us how you calculate it instead? I'm happy to learn it. Thanks a lot.

Posted by hero666 > 2017-06-12 00:25 | Report Abuse

http://www.enanyang.my/news/20170611/时势造英雄草根牛马/

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-12 00:40 | Report Abuse

@hero666, thanks for your sharing. Change in Revenue is the main concern for 2017Q2 and 2017Q3.

Posted by Bird87 > 2017-06-13 11:48 | Report Abuse

i bought at 0.99 ....pc_Fa LOng term hold it ba..

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-13 12:04 | Report Abuse

Aiyooo...I am a noob learning from pc_FA leh. haha!

hero666 @pc_FA, am so fortunate to have you n ozzie advise over here, prev i'd so much queries for this company, thanks 2u all, can unds this counter better and felt much secure of my investment

10/06/2017 10:31

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-13 12:12 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tomypaks-turnaround-efforts-prove-successful

Posted by yzgoh6 > 2017-06-13 12:42 | Report Abuse

bought at 1.0 ....keep 1 to 2years

Posted by hero666 > 2017-06-13 13:37 | Report Abuse

".........The prospects are for stable growth mainly driven by capacity expansion plans, as Tomypak has plans to increase capacity by 89% up to 36,000 tonnes per annum by FY20 to FY21 (from 19,000 tonnes per annum currently) by constructing a new plant in Senai. Phase 1 of the capacity expansion plan will come on-stream from second half of 2017 (2H17) to 1H18, while Phases 2 and 3 will see capacity growing gradually from FY19 up till FY20 to FY21. As such, we expect revenue to grow by 11% to 23% from FY17 to estimate FY18 (FY18E)....."

Posted by hero666 > 2017-06-13 13:40 | Report Abuse

Consistent with what pc_FA mentioned previously. Full harvest still a long way to go, expecting 2021...FY22 maybe.

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-13 14:22 | Report Abuse

@hero666, patience is the key to success :)
For expansion plan, I believe Tomypak management plan to double (Senai + Tampoi) its production capacity (around 36,000 tonnes) by end of FY 2019 and triple (Senai + Tampoi) its production capacity (around 54,000 tonnes) by end of FY 2021 or FY 2022.

Anyway let focus on upcoming financial result or any bursa announcement to keep track on Tomypak expansion plan.

Posted by yyinsg > 2017-06-14 14:22 | Report Abuse

seem to be a quiet phase for share price movement until next qtr result

Posted by limiklimik > 2017-06-14 16:02 | Report Abuse

bought some, for simpan

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-15 15:12 | Report Abuse

Yes, and patience towards the management too, to upsize and bring about revenue growth. Haha!

pc_FA @hero666, patience is the key to success :)
For expansion plan, I believe Tomypak management plan to double (Senai + Tampoi) its production capacity (around 36,000 tonnes) by end of FY 2019 and triple (Senai + Tampoi) its production capacity (around 54,000 tonnes) by end of FY 2021 or FY 2022.

Posted by Bird87 > 2017-06-15 15:13 | Report Abuse

ok la all hold till die ba including me hahaha

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-15 15:32 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyoyo...won't die de. They are just shares leh. haha!

Bird87 ok la all hold till die ba including me hahaha

15/06/2017 15:13

Posted by Bird87 > 2017-06-15 16:23 | Report Abuse

just kidding ..plan to hold it also for long term

Posted by Eric Fong > 2017-06-16 16:34 | Report Abuse

Fair Value Rm1.20

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-18 11:13 | Report Abuse

@Eric Fong: could you share with us how the 1.20 fair value is derived?

Posted by ozzie75 > 2017-06-20 11:45 | Report Abuse

Wah.....packaging companies having "bonus issue fever". Haha!

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/public-packages-proposes-5for7-bonus-issue

Posted by hero666 > 2017-06-21 10:16 | Report Abuse

Lately market sentiment are so poor and foreign fund are running away...btw thanks 1mdb after all.... tas y lot of company need to raise fund through split/bonus/esos/ipo/consolidation/m&a..... what to do.... i think more and more news of these on the way...

Posted by hero666 > 2017-06-21 10:35 | Report Abuse

@ozzie75, 8275 chart quite similar with 7285 @@"

Posted by pc_FA > 2017-06-21 12:14 | Report Abuse

It is a good time to whoever have confident towards Tomypak expansion plan :)