Posted by thesteward > 2019-08-09 14:18 | Report Abuse

Ya indeed

Posted by thesteward > 2019-08-09 14:18 | Report Abuse

Dirs collected much at higher price

Posted by Investsucess Trader > 2019-08-09 14:20 | Report Abuse

Today waiting to be match,

Posted by thesteward > 2019-08-13 17:01 | Report Abuse

Need to be so bad ?

Posted by thesteward > 2019-08-20 07:34 | Report Abuse

Today sud move up

Posted by DAN84 > 2019-08-20 15:02 | Report Abuse

no power..

Posted by 10156079023130854 > 2019-08-20 20:35 | Report Abuse

Perisa Rendang #CUBATRYONE! haha

Posted by moneypedia > 2019-08-20 21:02 | Report Abuse

sambal belacan ala gah

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 2019-08-28 17:29 | Report Abuse

condom bocor

Posted by rivter > 2019-08-28 17:37 | Report Abuse

BRAVO ~上市到现在首份亏损财报~

Posted by edmen > 2019-08-28 17:40 | Report Abuse

nobody use condom anymore?

Posted by Newbieinshare > 2019-08-28 17:41 | Report Abuse

Gg

Posted by thesteward > 2019-08-28 17:48 | Report Abuse

This quarter got profit before tax last q loss before tax .
But this q loss due to taxation

Posted by Robinson > 2019-08-28 18:27 | Report Abuse

now where got people use condom one? japan Av also creampie only.

Posted by lizi > 2019-08-28 21:14 | Report Abuse

14 consecutive straight open small....imagine this is small/big bet in casino...that table have to close already.

Posted by Will76 > 2019-08-29 08:53 | Report Abuse

Wow! Q2 Net Loss is first net loss since Sep 2013. BAD!

Similar case like Ucrest. After announce Q2 Net Loss in early August, drop not much, only 2 to 3 sen from 24 sen. Later slowly drop and still dropping until today. Now, Ucrest share price is 13 sen!

Karex likely to drop below 0.40 by end Sep 2019...

Posted by geraldt9 > 2019-08-29 10:30 | Report Abuse

With the posted loss .. comes the pin hole leak.

Posted by Poey886688 > 2019-08-30 20:05 | Report Abuse

I think this counter lau sai and hopeless liaw.

Posted by Cupcakes69 > 2019-08-30 23:33 | Report Abuse

I'm not concerned with the earnings since they're in a gestation period to expand their business, especially in the OBM sector. Thus, lower earnings is to be expected due to the high expense in building their brands, as seen in their income statement under distribution and administrative expenses.

Other factors such as cost of rubber,weak tender markets,etc. are cyclical,meaning they come and go. Karex has been in business for decades, its not new for them, so I have little reason to doubt their ability to weather the storm. In fact, it might be a good thing, weaker competitors will go bust leaving Karex, the biggest condom manufacturer in the world, with more market share.

The main concern should be their ability to stay liquid long enough until they achieve their expansion goals. Thus, people should look at their cash reserve and cash flow. Looking at the numbers, their cash flow has improved to RM15 mil compared to -RM38 mil last year, since they are no longer making acquisitions.

I value this stock at RM3 at least, it could be more. Not something that will happen anytime soon though, I give 4 - 10 years. Might be RM5 by then, a good x10 return with good dividend prospects.

Posted by snwong13 > 2019-08-31 08:23 | Report Abuse

.
Yes, agreed!
Go through the Balance Sheet and you will find out more!
Financially ok.
Will top up when time come !
Good Luck.

Posted by chia88 > 2019-08-31 20:50 | Report Abuse

Drop from 2.34 TP 0.44

Posted by pat_lsa > 2019-09-03 09:38 | Report Abuse

yeah... group of useless management team... if they work for my company, they will be doom for long time ago...

Posted by egold777 > 2019-09-03 10:49 | Report Abuse

for who attend AGM this year,pls help to vote "NO" for director fee increment,benefit increment etc...

Posted by No right Nor wrong Only to Win > 2019-09-03 10:53 | Report Abuse

Be cautious lah,
Bottom not seen yet.

Preserve your capital
Rite before the cliff 0.450

Next will be crash to 0.xx !

Posted by goreng_kaki > 2019-09-03 17:38 | Report Abuse

now a day young generation make love wont use condom anymore

Posted by Cupcakes69 > 2019-09-03 18:22 | Report Abuse

@goreng_kaki Well STDs are on the rise,so maybe they should lmao.

Posted by SC > 2019-09-04 10:53 | Report Abuse

joke of the year


Cupcakes69 I'm not concerned with the earnings since they're in a gestation period to expand their business, especially in the OBM sector. Thus, lower earnings is to be expected due to the high expense in building their brands, as seen in their income statement under distribution and administrative expenses.

Other factors such as cost of rubber,weak tender markets,etc. are cyclical,meaning they come and go. Karex has been in business for decades, its not new for them, so I have little reason to doubt their ability to weather the storm. In fact, it might be a good thing, weaker competitors will go bust leaving Karex, the biggest condom manufacturer in the world, with more market share.

The main concern should be their ability to stay liquid long enough until they achieve their expansion goals. Thus, people should look at their cash reserve and cash flow. Looking at the numbers, their cash flow has improved to RM15 mil compared to -RM38 mil last year, since they are no longer making acquisitions.

I value this stock at RM3 at least, it could be more. Not something that will happen anytime soon though, I give 4 - 10 years. Might be RM5 by then, a good x10 return with good dividend prospects.
30/08/2019 11:33 PM

Posted by Cupcakes69 > 2019-09-04 11:25 | Report Abuse

@SC

Care to explain?

Let me guess, your fibonacci, MACD, Stochastic Oscilators says so, LMAO!

Posted by witan > 2019-09-06 10:04 | Report Abuse

I agree with most of Cupcakes69 analysis. Problem is their OEM business segment. It has been dropping steadily albeit not at alarming rate. So for now I will avoid this counter since there are other better counters out there currently in the market. Plus with one of their major shareholders keep dumping shares after the last quarter result. Don't think it will recover in short period of time.

Posted by miker > 2019-09-06 10:05 | Report Abuse

Foreign funds keep disposing....waa...lau...

Posted by Cupcakes69 > 2019-09-06 13:49 | Report Abuse

@witan

I acknowledge your concern. When I first valued this stock, I actually discounted the prospect of their OBM segment ever succeeding by using the numbers in their prospectus instead of their more recent financial statements. In short, I was trying to value pre-IPO Karex, which gave me a valuation of 0.57-0.70 sens per share, a decent margin of safety when I first bought it at 0.40 sens.

Although, post-IPO Karex seems to be in a better position to weather the tough environment in OEM segment, In part due to their higher capacity (x2 since IPO), which allows them to better manage fluctuations in material cost, and gain an extra 5% market share.

But of course, the possibility that the OEM segment may deteriorate to a point that severely jeopardizes Karex's going concern still exist, especially considering their reliance of said segment's cash flow to fund their OBM segment's working capital. It is hoped that, in the worst case scenario, they could liquidate their unused assets fast enough to fund their cash outflows. Nevertheless, I remain confident that the current downturn in the OEM segment is temporary, mainly due to condoms having a substantial role in ensuring safe sex and keeping STDs at bay, an important public health care policy in most countries, thus ensuring its demand. They also still have a substantial amount of trade receivables at around RM60 mil to help cushion themselves.

I'm also pretty optimistic of their OBM segment, mainly due to their acquisition of ONE brand, which apparently was the 4th largest condom brand in the US (as of 2014). Their acquisition of Pasante is also not bad, a decent brand in the UK. If they were to start off their branding from scratch, I wouldn't be as optimistic because it would take a lot more time,money, with far less chance of success. Although, I'm not betting that they would beat the likes of Durex, Okamoto, Trojan, etc. But they don't need to, they just need to get a good slice of the OBM market for some decent cash flow.

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-11 10:59 | Report Abuse

no matter how well said also the result is everything

now what is very obvious is that the company profit is getting worse and worse every quarters , not few quarters but already so many quarters

it will be continue to lie on yourself only , if KAREX management failed to prove that their venture into the OBM segment is wrong

until now the financial performance is getting worse and more worse

say so much also no use

Posted by egold777 > 2019-09-11 14:29 | Report Abuse

For me now the game rules is simple,if the price rise back to 75-80c,I'll dispose all stocks in hand.Karex maybe will have a bright future but not for my age to wait 8-10 year more.Not worth,expensive cost-"Time".

Posted by Cupcakes69 > 2019-09-11 18:30 | Report Abuse

@RainT

It's perfectly reasonable to not invest in a stock because it's not making enough profit. But to use the numbers in the quarterly reports as an indicator to a company's future performance makes little sense because there's nothing indicative about a 3 month operating period. Karex has been around for more than 30 years. It's been through the fall of the soviet union, the transfer of hong kong to China, the asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, not to the mention all other crisis that happened in between (in Malaysia and abroad). So to expect a quarterly report, 3 months, to tell you anything useful about a company future prospects 5 years or more from now is just absurd. Heck, even 2-3 years means little. Most GOOD financial analyst use AT LEAST 5 years.

Their earnings are declining, but knowing that alone is not enough because It's never that simple. You have to ask why, how, is it structural, is it economic or just accounting,etc. The same thing applies if earning were going up. It's a lot of work, thus proper research is required.

And its too soon to judge their OBM segment, their last major acquisition was only last period, their venture into Singapore and Thailand is only by end-FY19.

Posted by Victor Tan > 2019-09-12 17:45 | Report Abuse

It’s kind of obvious for the past few months insiders is collecting slowly

Posted by Poey886688 > 2019-09-12 21:11 | Report Abuse

Good or bad then?

Posted by freddiehero > 2019-09-12 22:13 | Report Abuse

wat hapen pe so high?

Posted by RainT > 2019-09-18 15:14 | Report Abuse

@cupcakes69

thanks for your insight

undeniable, you also might be right, lets wait and see

finger crossed

Posted by Cupcakes69 > 2019-09-18 18:11 | Report Abuse

@RainT

All the best!

Posted by magus > 2019-09-18 19:47 | Report Abuse

intelligent comment from cupcakes 69, bravo!

Posted by egold777 > 2019-09-19 16:07 | Report Abuse

I sold all yesterday.Lost around 7K.Bye...every1!

Posted by goreng_kaki > 2019-09-20 10:47 | Report Abuse

now a day y generation tak guna condom anymore,
samua pancut luar badan~~~

Posted by Tryingtogetrich > 2019-09-20 20:28 | Report Abuse

Karex is the BIGGEST condom producer in the WORLD...not a jaguh kampung........ name me another company that is on the same league .......... they have the economic of scale....their OBM condom is gaining traction...they r suffering now.... can u imagine other condom manufacturer...? Die straight straight .. buy when others r fearful.

Posted by Cupcakes69 > 2019-09-20 22:20 | Report Abuse

@Tryingtogetrich

I'm definitely bullish on Karex, although I think it's important to take note that the increase in their OBM sales from 7% to 15% is pro forma gain as a result of their recent strings of acquisitions, and not from organic growth. Whether they will be able to effectively deploy their newly acquired brands for some decent cash flow is yet to be seen, although I am a bit optimistic, just not too much. But yes, their position as the biggest condom manufacturer does deserve some merit (1) as a reflection of management ability (2) as you've said, gaining economics of scale. Also at this price, even if they failed, from my estimates, its still pretty safe (in other words, its fairly cheap even if they failed, its damn cheap if they succeed).

Although I am a bit concern of Karex ability to remain liquid in case of a recession. Condom demands will still exist, and from the sources I've read,it might actually increase. It's just that, credit might be tight, and they might have trouble managing working capital. But that's the risk you have to take for growth. And hopefully, management will take proactive measure to grow their cash reserve while their OBM segment gets to a profitable scale, even if it may be unpopular (e.g. no dividends)

One thing I like about Karex is that its declining earning is mostly self-inflicted. They could just stop expanding their OBM segment and focus on the OEM, tender, etc segment. But is that really in our best interest as shareholders, don't we want growth! Do we really want them to keep selling condoms at RM0.10 per piece to Durex,while they resell it for RM2 per piece . How is that not theft!! They made more than RM200 mil from their IPO, what better way to take advantage of their market position than build their brand. If they don't, some condom company in Thailand surely will. They're acting fast, thats good. But lets just hope they're careful too.

Posted by Poey886688 > 2019-09-27 17:23 | Report Abuse

Something is going wrong.

Posted by SWT1988 > 2019-09-29 15:03 | Report Abuse

Thought it will go down below 0.40 this month but still very stubborn.

Posted by Poey886688 > 2019-09-29 16:52 | Report Abuse

It's not stubborn , got strong support.

Posted by pat_lsa > 2019-09-30 10:02 | Report Abuse

i am out too... this counter is the only worst counter i ever bought... good luck all...

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 2019-10-01 13:48 | Report Abuse

once drop below 0.375, then will go below 0.250

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 2019-10-01 13:49 | Report Abuse

November QR will get worst than August QR. Trust me.