haha @ TheContrarian but however this kind of Reach counter for old fren - TheContrarian definetly is earn money I know TheContrarian buy lowest sell near highest reach a few times not only this like Cesb , Trop , Malton , Mn or others counters TheContrarian always can get in get out in the perfect tming ,
for me I still a bit slow , I hold the stupid like Malton , trop , mkland , Reach, masteel wich made me from paper profit until paper loss but another issue is I am too busy on working so I only free after 4 or 4.30pm so I barely watch and comment recently
If really for paying debt, they will do marry deal in closed market under the company's name. But the weird thing is that is the own Ceo who dumped the shares! Any body have any clearer picture what's going on??
Reach is still a loss-making company with FY18 loss of RM44mil to its shareholder. But the biggest issue with this company is not the P&L but its very weak balance sheet.
If you look at the balance sheet dated 31 Dec 18, you will see that the company has a total current liabilities of RM359mil and only a total current asset of RM81mil. Of the RM359mil current liabilities, RM307mil are amount due to corporate shareholder of a subsidiary (which carries interest hence is actually debt). Please take note that the company has only paid around RM2.6mil of interest payment out of the combined interest cost of RM138mil for FY18 and FY17. I assume it must be part of the amount due to corporate shareholders as the total amount had increase from only RM273mil in on Dec 16 to now RM600mil as of Dec 18. The corporate shareholder is MIE Holdings Corporation, a listed company in HK that is based in China. Personally, I think MIE would push Reach to pay whatever is due to them given that the company itself is also in a distress situation. The share price of MIE has fallen from 52 weeks high of HKD0.50 to now only HKD0.09. (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/1555:HK)
Another issue for Reach is the minimum contractual commitment that they have to spend for their four fields in Kazakhstan. In 2019, the amount to be spend is around RM135mil which I doubt the company has. If they failed to spend the minimum committed capex, there is a possibility that the Kazakhstan government would take back their production license for the 4 fields. Investors need to take note of this risk.
If you are looking to hedge your portfolio outside of Reach (due to its weak earnings outlook and weak balance sheet), I would recommend you to look at MBMR. (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp)
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.1x PE based on FY18 profit of RM166mil. PB is low at only 0.7x BV.
FY19 should deliver another profit growth year to the company. Profit growth will again be driven by the performance of Perodua (via MBMR 22.6% holdings in Perodua) from the still strong sales of new Myvi, sales of SUV Aruz and the introduction of the newly revamp Alza sometime in the 2H19. Aruz which commands a higher margin compared to other models, will help improve the total profit margin of Perodua (which will flow to MBMR’s bottom line as well).
MBMR is expected to achieve a profit of RM200mil in 2019. At the current share price, the company is being valued at only 5.0x which is a lot lower than the industry average of 15x PE. As an example, UMW (another company with exposure to Perodua) is currently trading at a PE multiple of almost 20x.
Good luck.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
samyew1234
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Posted by samyew1234 > 2019-03-02 08:06 | Report Abuse
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