Stock Pick 2016 - soojinhou (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/soojinhou.jsp)

TOC - http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2016/88953.jsp

KC Chong is my sifu, although he may not acknowledge me as his student.

Here are my picks:

TGUAN-WA - 17%
CANONE - 16%
SHH - 23%
JAYCORP - 10%
SAM - 17%
MUDAJYA - 17%

1) I don't have to explain about Tguan's business, YiStock and Icon8888 have written extensively about it. Tguan should achieve revenue growth as well as margin improvement this year from aggressive expansion into higher margin products. Oil price does not look set to rebound this year, with Iran about to unleash it's production into the market with the upliftment of sanctions. Therefore, resin price should stay subdued. Rock solid 3Q15 result is achieved despite net forex loss of RM3m.

2) I think time is ripe for the take over price of KianJoo to be revised upwards of RM3.30. RM3.30 was offered in November 2013 and since then KianJoo's business has grown. It also did not declare any dividends over the past few years because any dividends it declare will be offseted against the RM3.30 takeover price. With the ringgit depreciation, KianJoo has grown cheaper to foreign suitors. According to Focus Malaysia, Toyota Tsusho is still in talks with Canone's management for a buyout. Watch for deadline 31/3/16 for the deal with Aspire Insight to conclude. Will another suitor put in a bid?

3) Is furniture theme still in play? I'm going put my money on SHH and Jaycorp instead of the usual suspects. SHH is a pure US play as all its products are exported there. 3Q15 results is achieves despite forex loss of RM1.2m. Excluding this, core eps is actually 9 cents, which translate to PER of 5.5 annualised. If results can be sustained, it is probably the cheapest furniture stock in Bursa. Management has audaciously raised dividend from 2 cents to 10 cents, suggesting strong confidence in its prospect.

4) Jaycorp is not quite as sexy as SHH as only a third of its export is to North America. 55% of its products are exported. The recent solid result is achieved in spite of net forex losses. Core eps is around 4.6 cents, PE is around 6.5 annualised. Still cheaper than the usual suspects.

5) With an order book many times its market capitalisation, 2016 may be another solid year for SAM. SAM management is going after RM1 billion revenue target from half a billion in 2015, although I can't find the timeline for them to achieve it. SAM has a moat that is impenetrable, because aircraft casings are highly precise parts very few fabricators have the ability to make.

6) Mudajaya is hopefully the dark horse. This is a low expectation counter that is picked up from the garbage bin. With the Indian power plant firing up, this may be a year of rerating for Mudajaya. But we'll have to see if the Indian government will compensate them for relatively expensive coal price locked in in 2014 when coal price was significantly higher.



Posted by soojinhou at Jan 4, 2016 03:59 PM