the only financial group that outperforms all the other leaders in the financial industry in msia hahahahahahahahaha poor PBB AMB RHB CIMB MBB getting wrecked over by the sky high defaults hahahahahahaha
Will the market crash if budget 2021 cannot be passed this coming Thursday (26/10/2020)? These are the 4 possible scenarios:
1. Parliament will be dissolved and a snap election will be called 2. A state of Emergency in the whole country will be declared by YDPA 3. Muhyiddin will resign and YDPA will appoint an interim PM 4. YDPA will appoint a new PM who has majority MPs support. A new budget 2021 also will be tabled by the new appointed PM.
Will the market go down? Will it crash? Take profit now or wait?
Price correction coming as shown in TA chart. RSI at 80% all time high. MACD all time high and about to cross like previous crossing. Volume down
Banks are typically valued on it's net worth book value. HLFG's historical 10 year average PB is at 1.1x. Assuming a reversion to historical average PB.. HLFG is worth at least 21 /share to me. Steady compounder for those who can see. Only 3 banks in Malaysia consistently achieving ROE more than 10%. HLFG is one of them.
We maintain BUY call on Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG) with unchanged fair value of RM20.60/share based on SOP valuation. We fine-tune our FY21/22 earnings by +0.5/-0.8% after tweaking our net interest and non-interest income (NOII) estimates.
HLFG reported a flattish net profit of RM573mil (-0.7% QoQ) in 4Q21. Higher net interest income (NII) was offset by a slowdown in non-interest income (NOII) coupled with higher provisions due additional pre-emptive provisions of RM157mil set aside by its key subsidiary, Hong Leong Bank (HLBB) in the quarter.
For 12M21, core earnings grew by 13.3% YoY to RM2.27bil with higher profit contribution from all divisions (commercial and share of results from Bank of Chengdu – associate company, investment banking and insurance).
Cumulative earnings were within our expectation, accounting for 104.6% of forecast. However, the results were slightly above consensus number making up 105.6% of street estimates.
Its key subsidiary, HLBB, reported a strong PBT of RM3.5bil (+16.1% YoY) for 12M21 contributed by higher total income and lower opex partially offset by increase in provisions due to pre-emptive allowances on loan losses of RM511mil booked in for the financial year.
HLBB’s loans grew strongly at 6.8% YoY with domestic loan growth outpacing the industry’s 3.4% YoY growth.
HLBB’s CI ratio for 12M21 improved to 38.0% with a positive JAW of 15.6% YoY.
The banking subsidiary’s asset quality remained sound with GIL ratio of 0.46% while loan loss cover including regulatory reserves was high at 304.0% significantly above the industry’s 112.0%. Credit cost of HLBB stood at 0.42% in 12M21.
HLA Holdings (HLAH) recorded a higher net profit after tax of RM394mil (+73.3% YoY) for 12M21.
The improved performance of the group’s insurance business was underpinned by higher insurance underwriting surplus (+RM38mil), fair value gains from equities (+RM78mil) and the release of contractual liabilities from higher interest rate partially offset by FV losses on bonds (+RM28mil)
For 12M21, HLA the key insurance subsidiary’s gross premiums and new business regular premiums (NBRP) expanded by 11.1%YoY and 29.7% YoY respectively.
HLA’s embedded value rose by 14.0% YoY to RM2.87bil in 12M21 focusing on growth of higher margin products (investment-linked). New business embedded value (NBEV) of HLA climbed 20.0% YoY to RM177mil in 12M21 from changes in product mix, new product launches and favourable impact from the steepening of long-term MGS rates. Non-par and investment-linked/ participating ratio for new businesses stood at 96:4. HLA maintained its ranking at No. 4 for investment-linked products while its market share in terms of NBRP for ordinary life products improved to the 7th position in FY21 from 9th in FY20.
HLA’s number of agents rose to 8,095. By delivery channel, gross premiums continued to be driven largely by agents followed by bancassurance. In FY21, agency and bancassurance’s NBRP grew by 27.0% YoY and 39.0% YoY respectively.
Its investment banking division under Hong Leong Capital (HLC) reported a higher PBT of RM177mil (+85.2% YoY) for 12M21 driven by higher contributions from investment banking and stockbroking business. Higher retail participation in the stock market benefitted its stockbroking business. Meanwhile, improved deals flows for equity and debt capital markets, coupled with higher treasury income lifted earnings contribution from investment banking. In contrast, its asset management business’s PBT declined YoY with lower average AUM of RM16.9mil as money market funds withdrew to invest in other higher yielding investments.
HLFG’s consolidated CET1 ratio, Tier 1 and total capital was 11.64%, 12.58% and 15.47% in 4Q21 respectively. The ratios stayed above the regulatory requirements of 7.0%, 8.5% and 10.5% respectively.
A final dividend of 29.2 sen/share has been proposed bringing the total FY21 dividends to 40 sen/share (payout: 20.0%). This was close to our estimate of 43.5 sen/share.
The issue of FBM index lies within the fact that the index consistently ostracizes the winners and embrace the losers. Hong Leong Financial Group is the few movers of the index with the least analyst upgrades/coverage and highest SD for earnings estimates. This is really boring
After 3 years pandemic already end, next year onwards surely is the years of recovery and economy start booming time ! Like previously economy downturn period of: 1)Crisis 1986-1990 start booming 1993 to 1997 2)Crisis 1997-2000 start booming 2003 to 2006 3)Crisis 2006-2010 start booming 2013 to 2016 4)Crisis 2016-2022 start booming 2023 to 2027
So, our economy and KLSE will be spike up like mad start from year 2023 which is next year and i predict our KLSE this round of bull run start 2023 will hit it’s record high of around 2,000 points !
KUALA LUMPUR: At the conclusion of its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, Bank Negara increased the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%, in line with market expectations. In a statement, it said it raised the ceiling and floor rate of the corridor of the OPR to 2.75% and 2.25% respectively.
This is the central bank's third consecutive rate hike, bringing the total increase in the OPR to 75bps so far this year. "At the current OPR level, the stance of monetary policy continues to remain accommodative and supportive of economic growth.
"The MPC is not on any pre-set course and will continue to assess evolving conditions and their implications on the overall outlook to domestic inflation and growth," said Bank Negara…..
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....