i've been waiting for 50cent for some time ...sigh...

Oh missed out another group of players. I call them Kopitiam Players.
They make FLIMSY comments based on rumours, personal feelings and crowd mentality.

Their comments are useful only for this reason. When price is up high and I see many of such comments to BUY because of their Kopitiam comments. It's time to SELL. This is no difference to this anecdote "when I hear the shoe shine boy talking abt the market, I know it's in a bubble".

Dear Investors,

Firstly, you must differentiate yourselves to be a long term investor or day trader. Then decide to buy, sell or hold. You can even be both by trimming some in cash position to buy more at lower price.

"Market expectations" on QR results are mainly institution investors. It doesn't represent the WHOLE market, which includes retail and some foreign investors. And institution investors are humans too. They have no psychic power to see the future QR results and price. It is only their EXPECTATION. The only difference is they have HIGH cash and equity position to somewhat move the market. But that is only on short term basis. So day traders usually (and should) play according to their music.

Anything else, like cost, demand (sales) and even the MYCC fine is just part of doing business. You must understand when some players shout BUY/SELL when price is moving up or down signifies them to be long term or day traders.

When price rockets up and they shout BUY are usually day traders. They are playing on sentiments and price movements. They will sell for profit and look at technical indicators again to decide on BUY/SELL.. They are gambling (and nothing wrong with that) by using technical indicators to better their odds.

When price plummets down with fundamentals still intact and they shout BUY are usually long term investors. Buying low to have Margin of Safety and hold for dividend or greater capital gain in the future. As mentioned earlier, some trim 20-30% of their position to have cash and buy when price is low. They will increase their total shares gradually. They too use technical indicators to decided.

So stop whining if you don't do your homework. Take any advise to BUY/SELL from this forum with a grain of salt.

You see what EPF is doing. EPF buys high volume and sell low volume. They are pushing the price down when selling. So they can buy back at lower price. Playing with sentiment.

2 big buyers are in.... Good. Clear up weak hands.

You should scroll up to old comments on Clarinden in this forum. They bought the share way below IPO price. They still make profit selling at 60cents.


bose00

The big investors eg Clarinden taking a huge loss frm this investment. From IPO and now at a discount selling a 1/2 price at 0,5x-0.7x.

Something goes wrong that we don’t know ? (Any info)

ARBN is buying. Nice.

Wanna buy, just buy. Wanna sell, just sell. No point guessing.
I'm just waiting for Q124 result coming in 2 months.
Let the price swing.

Free Cash Flow end of 2023 is 830million. That's crazy good.

I think they think can boost the shares they own by making comments like that 😂

SMInvest

Chipee @ They are very low morale and low educated

I don't why there's always some !d!ot come to forum telling people to buy another company?
And totally unrelated industry or analysis. 😂😂😂

It drops to 50cent... I'm loading up.

"Quarterly results is quite distorting" = Totally agree with this statement

Like I said "Wait to see the buyer."
Everytime price is suppressed, I notice a big buyer putting high volume buy.
See any desperate sellers taking the low price.

Since listed until 2021, it has been NEGATIVE cash flow. Only in 2022, their cash flow turn positive since they lowered CAPEX. So it should be good news from now onward.

Wait for the financial report. Look into the cash flow. That is more important bcoz every quarter since 2019, each quarter produce different Net profit. I believe LHI had slowed/stopped their expansion and upgrade in equipment hence lower CAPEX. This should show higher free cash flow. This should be the way. Hence, lower debt even more in near future. As debt get lower, dividend will get higher (hopefully).

This is a long term investment for me. Demand will always be there for chickens and eggs. Variable factors will be operational costs ... feeds, labour etc ... With CAPEX slows down, we will see better free cash flow.

Compare to Hartalega ... Harta revenue dropped 8% from last quarter.
Kossan revenue only dropped 0.8% from last quarter.

Kossan is in better position than Harta la ....

Yes yes ... it will fall to 25cents.... 😂😂😂
Come on man ... it made profit just slightly lower than last quarter. Kossan is recovering well. One-off impairment is just accounting record but no actual cash is spent. If you compare net operating cash flow between Q3 and Q4 2023, it's an increase of 73million. This Q4 result is actually good.

Wait to see the buyer.

TillyLovers

The counter drops like no tomorrow.

On Macro analysis: USD is climbing higher against RM and US interest rate is at all time high. Fear is Msia might hv to increase interest rate. Thankfully Kossan is at full advantage. Export revenue (45%) is in USD and negligible debt level. With demand improving, I see better near term future for Kossan.

Actually quite smart also. Report impairment loss for 2023 since that year already in the loss. Make 2024 high profitable year. As Harta reported, demand is picking up and nat gas (raw material) cost is coming down.

One-off impairment. But Operating Profit is within range Rm39mill. Good result. Better than Harta having Operating loss at a big gap. Kossan is improving production efficiency with automation hence the impairment. So I see better result 1Q24. Moreso, Nat Gas for March is below USD2. Net profit will be improved significantly 1Q24.

Coming Friday. Hopefully.

If Kossan can have growth in revenue and operating profit, then Kossan is more valuable than Hartalega.

Aiyoh ... Harta Operating loss ... -7.8million ...Revenue drop too.
Hopefully, Kossan can maintain profitable.

Look out for Hartalega Q3 result this week. Might help push up Kossan if result is good.

THat's good bcoz 45% of Kossan export is to USA.
Full disclosure ... Harta to USA is 50% la. ...

Another good reason to keep Kossan; their revenue can be in US Dollar for their export market.
USD is creeping higher.

Good News: Natural Gas falls to USD2.24 for March contract
Bad News: Global Baltic Index more than doubled to USD3094. This may decrease revenue. Deter orders from the west.

I still believe Affinity is rebalancing their portfolio. Private equity companies always searching to be venture capitalist or angel investors in new start ups or private holdings. Also, maybe their investment in China is forcing them to rebalance. I don't see any problem with LHI. Fundamental is good.

Giving them the benefit of the doubt (What else can we do right?)
From 2012 to 2024 = 12 year, they could have grown and invested in more production line, property, expanded sales etc ... So the value grown and valued at Rm1.10 (IPO price). Meaning every profit earned in that 12 years they reinvested hence increasing the value.

So when LHI IPO-ed, Affinity also sell part of their shares to the public. They already at least 5x their money.

KUALA LUMPUR: The proposed disposal of Leong Hup Holdings Bhd to Emerging Glory Sdn Bhd for a total consideration of RM318.65 million. (This is the value to privatize it in 2012.)

Scenario A: RM318.65 million represents 100% of LHI value (market cap)
Compare to current outstanding shares. 3.650bill
RM318.65 million / 3.650bill = Rm0.0873

Scenario B: RM318.65 million represents 53.26% Emerging Glory DOES NOT OWN.
Making the TOTAL value of Rm598.29million
Compare to current outstanding shares. 3.650bill
Rm598.29million / 3.650bill = Rm0.164.

So now it depends whether Affinity was partner in the privatization in 2012 or Emerging sold some to Affinity AFTER privatization. Either way, the prices are lower than what Affinity is selling now.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/offer-price-leong-hup-seen-unfair-reasonable

It's possible. Affinity/Clarinden being a private equity institution could be holding the shares before IPO. LHI was privatized in 2012 and delisted. Affinity could be a partners then. So their cost could be lower.

Leong Hup is backed by prominent Asian private equity firm Affinity Equity Partners, which currently own stakes in Burger King Korea and China's Beijing Leader & Harvest Electric Technologies Co Ltd.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2019/04/482904/leong-hups-ipo-secures-global-trader-louis-dreyfus-cornerstone-investor

Just bcoz they are cornerstone investor does not mean they have insider information. They are selling at a loss. I think it's they own internal issues of balancing their portfolio. They could had margin called in other investment so required cash to plug the hole. Chances are to do with China investments. For example CapitalLand, has to revalue their assets due to their exposure to their property investment in China.

LHI is still fundamentally good. It's a hold for me.

Bursa see red but LHI hold at 52 cents. This is the new support.

Market got spooked by China economic data and US Manufacturing PMI suggesting recession. This already suspected by many even data was released. I still wait for Q4 results. If profit is maintained then it is good. Healthcare is the sector to be in recession.

I'm hoping for that ... I'll start adding more if hit 50cent. Good fundamental ... ALWAYS buy/sell on fundamental. Unless have external factor which I don't anticipate in the short term.

gankm

BBQ already. No point talking on fundamental. Everyday drop a bit and a bit. Will break below 0.50 cents very soon.

Me too. Q4 shld be good ... then Q124 ... after that decide. I believe there's more room to go up.

ryoyagod

I see. Haha.
TP alrdy, dompeilee? So rush 😅 I wait for its Q4 out 1st and see

That's a smart move. Take advantage of yesterday's upward momentum. This is the kinda thing I like. Knowledge sharing. Not like some other people. ... cry father, cry mother for no reason.

dompeilee

Finally SOLD some Kossan @ $2.10 to lock in my 856th consecutive market open day of share trading gains!😘🍻💰

And keep on the look out for demand normalizing. Then TopGlove and Harta would be the top pick amongst the glove companies bcoz of their easily increase production capacity. Question is HOW long to wait for normalization.

Oh Thank you xiaoeh ...
Still the same as I presented but with current covid case rise, it might give it a bit bump up.
But I try not to rely on covid too much on glove recovery. I prefer to be conservative and see normalization.

Vaccine does not work

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/general/40034695

You see their disposed number and date are the same? They are the same group. They sell one time, 3 names are registered at the same time.


AFFINITY ASIA PACIFIC FUND IV (NO.2) L.P. (a substantial shareholder) disposed 4,272,000 shares on 10-Jan-2024.
CONCORDANT INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 4,272,000 shares on 10-Jan-2024.
CLARINDEN INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 4,272,000 shares on 10-Jan-2024.

AFFINITY ASIA PACIFIC FUND IV (NO.2) L.P. (a substantial shareholder) disposed 5,300,000 shares on 09-Jan-2024.
CONCORDANT INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 5,300,000 shares on 09-Jan-2024.
CLARINDEN INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 5,300,000 shares on 09-Jan-2024.

AFFINITY ASIA PACIFIC FUND IV (NO.2) L.P. (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,213,100 shares on 08-Jan-2024.
CONCORDANT INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,213,100 shares on 08-Jan-2024.
CLARINDEN INVESTMENTS PTE LTD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,213,100 shares on 08-Jan-2024.

Affinity, Concordant and Clarinden are of same group. So far they had disposed 23% of their holdings.
But they still hold 240million shares.

So will it drop tomorrow?

Many investors are looking at Msian glove this way:
Pre-covid: Harta Rm5.20. Kossan: Rm2.10
Now: Harta: Rm2.98. Kossan: Rm1.97

So Harta has more room to catch to Pre-covid price while Kossan already almost there.
But that is a wrong idea. Again, pre-covid is about expansion on production capacity. NOW it is about COST EFFICIENCY in production. Moreso, Harta had cut production capacity by significant amount compare to pre-covid.

So we look at quarterly report ending Sept 2023. (Standalone quarter. Not cumulative)
Harta: Revenue: 452,085. Operating Expenses: (436,163). Cost/Rev : 96.48%
Kossan: Revenue: 403,479. Operating Expenses: (373,822). Cost/Rev : 92.65%

So Kossan already caught up and exceeded Harta on COST EFFICIENCY.
So in this context, Kossan actually got more room to grow. Hopefully, we can see this on Q423 report.

Meanwhile, RHB Research said the product quality from Chinese glove makers were on a subpar level, also evident from the multiple import alerts by the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA).

“According to the latest import alert dated Dec 26, 2023 issued by the US FDA, 10 Chinese firms were issued import alerts by the agency in the fourth quarter last year, given that the shipment of medical gloves was found to be in violation of defects detected by the US FDA,” it noted.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/01/08/rubber-glove-players-in-for-recovery

I believe when China stops their zero-covid policy, they will be facing the same problem like Topglove. But then again it's China, they can just let go of their workers without compensation. hehehe....

And in comparison to China .... Kossan utilization rate is 50%. Most Msian gloves are in utilization of 50% or below.
China is 90% ... becoz China has zero covid policy and they are still facing covid problem. Most gloves are for their Men-in-White-Suits and of coz doctors. So their gloves are really for internal use.

Many feels that once they stop zero-covid, ASP will be greatly suppressed bcoz China will have higher capacity to export out. I totally disagree bcoz if this is true, then China should run at 100% utilization rate.

I believe when China stops zero-covid policy, their utilization rate will be in line with Msia's rate of 50%.

I take Harta to be the benchmark. Kossan is more valuable than Harta ... In my humble opinion.
Once Kossan hit same price like Harta .. maybe I'll consider to let go. So either Harta comes down to meet Kossan price... or ... Kossan go up to meet Harta. But it's all speculation on my part.. But that's how I decide now bcoz I'm holding for long term investment.

HArta has 3.4bill outstanding shares. Kossan has 2.55bill outstanding share. If overall value of Kossan is more than Harta or even the same ... Kossan shld be price higher than Harta per share basis.

Pre-covid ... all gloves companies are just racing to expand to catch up with TopGlove's capacity. But now is different story. Being too big means higher overhead cost and not profitable.

Post-covid is optimum capacity to be profitable. So Kossan is going for better efficiency in production via automation and reduced workers. They already did that from 6000 workers to 4000. They can keep going to reduce their overhead cost. With their 2 bill cash, they can easily upgrade their production line.