AA div for FY12 is 24 sen, generate yield 8.6% at current price RM2.78. Assuming AA cut it div 50% to 12 sen in FY13, yield will still attractive at 4.3% (12/278). No wonder local investors like EPF keep buying lately.

As price drop, MrBB will keep buying. Soon and later, we will read the announcement .... Mr BB become substantial shareholder replacing wellington. ...LoL....

THe drastic downgrade of TP from RM6.50 to RM5.40 within a month, reflect a slap on the broker house face. The sharp downgrade to enable the broker house to rectify the wrong assumption of overly high GP margin used in previous assessment on making the profit projection of APM.

In fact, b4 the 4Q12 result announcement, there are rumours in i3portal that APM is under pressure to cut selling price to customers.

On SWOP analysis, unsual high GP margin of APM for the past 2 years is not sustainable going forward, as APM derived 65% from only 2 customers, proton & peradua. Therefore, APM is only a price taker.

APM has found it difficult to make inroads into regional automotive markets whether through exports or overseas operations. This indicate the APM is not competitive on regional basis, but some extent, still competitive in domestic market.

In conclusion, most of the broker house are over optimistic on the APM biz outlook in their previous asessment. In reality, APM are still a domestic players. When margin become high, Proton & Peradua will knock the door and ask for price reduction. Want to be a Asean big players, APM still very miles aways. However, APM has a very light assets balance sheet, generate huge cashflow every quarter. The cashflow can support generous dividend and share price. Going forward, APM should view as a dividend stock instead of growth stock.

Outlook of Hektar are getting better & better.

Annual report 2012 indicate 2012 traffic for Subang Parade & Mahkota Parade increase by 44% and 34% respectively. Therefore, healhty rental revision rates expected for both mall in 2013.

On the other hand, the reposition & reburnishment of 2 new kedah malls acquired in Oct 2012 (Landmark & Central Square), are expected to completed by end 2013. Healthy rental revision rate are expected after the exercise.

With (1) stronger outlook of rental revision rates, (2)current high gross yield at 7.1% (10.5/148) and (3)potential yield compression since retail peer trade at yield range 4.5% to 5.0%, these 3 fundamental factors point to the high possibility of strong run up of hektar share price in later part of 2013.

Challengers keep changing from time to time, the defending champion remain is MrBB. lol....

Last day for entitlement of special div. AA up 3 sen to RM2.99. MrBB diam-diam rest in the cave. Look like investor do not think Malindo Air hyprid biz model (more close to Full Service model) will pose a big threat to AA.

Indo media this week report that Lion air Boss lately form a plane leasing co, call 'Transportation Partners' in Spore to lease the plane to lion air and outsiders. Is this mean that Lion Air may have over order the plane and cannot absorb all of them?

Launch of Malindo Air on 22 March.... . May be is a good news.

To certain extend, investors will have a clearer picture of Malindo Business Model when assessing the impact of Malindo Air.

The Star reported that 'Malindo Operating Boeing 737-900ER airplanes, which have a capacity of 180 seats each and capable of serving destinations within a five and a half hour range'. Website also reveal that there are 15kg free baggage allowance on Economy Class, Extra legroom 32” seat pitch, meal provided, enjoyed aerobridge from KLIA main terminal.

It look like they are hybrid with biz class since they are only 180 seats. Will this Malindo biz model work? I think within few month, we will have the answer.

Special of div 18 sen, Tune Air are getting approx 128mil dividend, based shareholding of 25%.

MrB&B should change his favourate statement:'Tune Air has acquired a total of 44,080,000 units at ZERO cost (instead of an average price of 2.904 costing Rm128 million) from 15 Oct 2012 till 29/01/2013.

Sharp correction from RM6 to now 22/2/13 3pm @ RM5.20. What has gone wrong with stock? Fundamentally, RHB last week reveal the weak link of APM. In short are as follows:

1. APM is still reliant on sales to domestic OEMs. APM’s revenues mainly come from domestic OEMs (about 75%) of which about 65% are derived from sales to Proton and Perodua.

2. APM is a price taker. With the domestic OEMs under pressure to be more cost competitive, Perodua and Proton have implemented a 15% price reduction across the board beginning 1 Jan 2013 without any corresponding volume undertaking.

3. Limited export and overseas sales. APM has found it difficult to make inroads into regional automotive markets whether through exports or overseas operations. Japanese and other major global autoparts vendors already dominate regional automotive assembly hubs in Thailand and Indonesia.

4. Looking beyond organic growth. The founders of APM have historically managed the company conservatively and only growing organically.

Contrasting fortune within Airasia group. ThaiAirasia rose from IPO THB3.70 in mid 2012 to yesterday close of THB6.85 While Airasia drop to RM2.61 today 11.40am.

Tune Ins is very attractive growth co. However, at IPO price RM1.35 look pricy in term PE compare with industry especially in this negative election sentiment.

No choice. Better for MAS to beef now. Malindo Air also want to adopt turboprop ATR plane to compete against Firefly. Whether Malaysia government will approve this turboprop licence, will remain to be seen.

Refurbishment of Reit property are yearly rountine job of REIT. By refursbishing, it maintain the property value of the property.

MrBB feel too lonely with no challenger! ... He think ... He write ... He read ....... He laugh himself...... He ask himself ...... He is a very happy man...... .Is it a good way of self entertainment?

MrBear now is keeping a lot grasses in the cave for the incoming extended ultra long hibernation period.

Since majority of investors are foreigners, this stock woild be more volatile at listing, may below IPO, especial ahead GE. The stock is attractive in long term, but pricy in short term. It will take sometimes b4 new mgt can unlock the value of the biz.

How Tune Insurance (TI) IPO at offer price @ 1.35 benefit AA? AA bought 122mil TI share at RM16mil in 2012 on a special arrangement deal, work out be 13sen per each TI. Therefore, gain to AA would be RM148mil (122mil shr x RM1.22).

AA no of share listed is 2.8 billion share. The gain of RM148 mil will increase asset per share by 5.3sen (RM148m / 2800 mil shr).

Only 5.3sen, very little. But still better than nothing lor ......

An escaping wild bull running madly, kicking out a lot of animals and eventually bang into a sleeping bear in the cave, become bull+bear. ..... This is the origin of story.

MrBB is a very well discpline animal. The last post posted by him today is 11:54am. By then AA share price still in red. From 12:00pm onward, AA become green, then MrBB never do posting anymore. Is MrBB a person full of good displine, play within this rules?

EPF buying decision may be influence by The Edge Weekly (21/1/13) reported AA may pay special div, as high as 18 Sen (50% FY2012 profit)arising from Free cashflow more than RM300 mil on JV IPO.

Another falling KLCI 16 points. Well folks, should we talk about eating kacang putih and drinking sky juice (plain water) instead of abalone and roti canai soon?

Another interesting Article from CAPA today with heading 'Why Airasia do no need in JV in Asia?'. In short, no JV is because each new JV incur huge start up cost and Airasia Asean 3 JV has cover nearly corner of the region.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/why-airasia-doesnt-need-a-new-affiliate-in-singapore-the-rest-of-asean-and-potentially-all-of-asia-95690

It is Punters day! China Auto Part IPO gain 75% at 9.45am!

Too much liquidity in the market? A good sign for 2 & 3rd liner ahead?

Ops, You give the address of the website, then MrBB will be jobless, no more reader to follow him!

Too many variable? ... many be only 2 key variable need to watch out... malindo new & high foreign shareholding.

AA in red. MrB&B, as expected, come back to do his P&C (Paste & Cut) work.

There is an unreliable rumour that MrBB will be appointed as Safety Director, the highest responsiblity and highest paid position of the Malindo Air, overseeing the safety of the passanger and plane. Why the position is so important? Let see Lion Air latest incident of safety record:

1. On 1 Nov 2012, a Lion Boeing 737-400 from Jakarta bearing flight no 716, skidded the runway during landing in Bandara Supadio, Pontinak. The incident occurred may due to poor weather.

2. On 23 Dec 2012, a Lion plane from Jakarta bearing no GT 260, burst it’s tyre during the landing of Bandara Hj Raja Fisabilah, Riau Island province.

3. On 30 Dec 2012, a lion 737-400/ JT 71 8 from Jakarta, skidded again the runway during landing in Bandara Supadio, Pontinak.

Another more reliable rumour, the launch date of Malindo will be defer from March2013 to a later date. This rumour more reliable. Interview with Malindo CEO early Jan 13 reveal that it has not official submit AOC application to Msia Authority by then. In addition, there are yet any advertisement on Malindo seat sales as at today, 2 months from launch date.

Do you think the above 2 rumour are reliable?

MrBB vs Millionaire... The Score is 1:1.

MrBB come back to redeem his gift of Abalone from Millionaire. But, Millionaire is prepare to offer Roti Canai only. He keep abalone for himself, not sharing! As such, battle of word began ......

Most likely the div for FY 2012 is higher than last year of 5sen. This is due to better AA 's cashflow and Tune Air (shareholder) has used up a lot money to buy AA share at price ranging from RM2.80 to RM3.10. The issues is there is uncertainty on the amount of div and timing of the payment.

JB property developers has minimum impact from GE13. They are looking for Singapore Dollars money as catalyst. For the past 5 years, JB is driven by local (khazanah) and foreign investments. For next 5 years, it will be driven by Sporean investments.

Continue looking forward more postive flow of investment news to drive JB property.... .

Market in red. Something is not right, MrBB is still missing. Is he still hibernating? Is he find a permanent job elsewhere? A lot of bargaining hunters are still waiting him to do posting to beat the price down to RM2.60.

Axis Reit is Best Reit in the sense that they are able to grow asset via Acqusition & organic. For retails reit, most of them can persue grow via organic. Acqusition become difficult as mall price has gone up a lot.

The Edge Weekly (21/1/13) reported AA may pay special div, as high as 18 Sen (50% FY2012 profit)arising from Free cashflow more than RM300 mil on JV IPO.

The above new imply AA will be paid more div in future as its Thai & Indo JV will buy their planes instead of rely on AA Msia. 18 sen div reported look too speculative at this stage.

Strong price run up from 31/12/12 RM4.71, may due for minor correction. Price may sustainable for a while on expectation on robust January vehicle sales figure, ahead of Feb CNY.

Morning session close RM1.69. Price today are sustainable by KSL potential privatisation rumour, which may be purely speculative, according to RHB Research. Stock undervalue.

AA at the movement is only can walk slowly......roadblock by Malindo. AA can only run fast, if there is clearer location of the roadblock. This need more positive news to proof that the threats of Malindo is overreacted.

Morning session close RM1.63. The JB Inskandar property theme play continue (UEM, KSL, Tebrau). New like more sporean buying JB property (spore introduce property cooling measure lately) and 2H 2013, better residental property prospect due to stronger economy growth, may sustain the upward mometance.

Everyday up 1 sen. Mr Bear has no choice, continue hibernating in the caves for a longer period. zzzzzzzz zzzzzz.

For a layman, strongly advise them to continue park their money in EPF. Though EPF return 5% to 6% is low, it is nearly risk free. Select a good mutual fund with good return, sometimes may be as difficult as selecting a stocks. Both need to do homework.

For mutual fund, you won't be surprise to find out that some fund are very consistent, perform below market rate years after years.

Alway range bound at RM1.43. Eventually start moving and closing morining session RM1.52. This was trigger by new of IWH (Inskandar Water Front) IPO valued at RM5billion. KSL have huge land bank in JB. If IWH IPO materialise, will trigger a rerating of this stock.

AA hold about 18% of AAX. After listing, AAX has stronger balance sheet to acquire more planes. Thus, bring more transit traffic to AA and AA's bottom line.

Strong flow of postive news (eg Malindo financial constraint, sharp share price gain of ThaiAirasia, impending listing of Tune Ins, AirasiaX etc) help AA to sustain the price recovery.

The tidy has changed. It is better for Mr B&B to switch side. If he switch side now, he will enjoy abolones everyday. Otherwise,.... have to wait for offer of the little and miserable roti canai.

Cave no more food. Starving already. Come out for abalones. Roti Canai too little to fill stomach.

Mr B&B is back because of the attractive offer of Abalone & Roti Canai.

Osk reported today on Malindo: There are rumors that Malindo's major shareholder NADI is reluctant to pour a large amount of capital into the J. Nevertheless, despite these rumors, we understand that recruitment of cabin crews and pilots is ongoing, with the first batch of 20 fresh pilots coming in this month while some first officers and captains have started work. However, due to the JV's limited capital, we gather that Malindo charges a fee for any new CPL (commercial pilot licence) holder with B737 NG Type rating who is interested to become pilots. Charges are estimated to be USD30,000 for the first 500 hours, with no salary. A type rating is a licence to fly a certain aircraft type that requires additional training beyond the scope of the initial licence and aircraft class training. This could be a sign of Malindo and Lion Air facing some financial constraints. We understand that AirAsia does not adopt this practice as it usually bears the cost of type ratings in exchange for a six-year bond. In the case of cadets, we understand that AirAsia provides some kind of financing scheme.

Mr B&B could be one of 20 pilot recruited. Hahahahaha ......

Where is Mr B&B? I think .... he must be getting a permanent job from Lion Air. ...... Also, a small offering of roti canai is not attractive for him to come back, should consider offering Abalone.

Abalone, Abalone, Abalone, Abalone ........

For factors influence the share price movement, top factor is rental revision rate while liquidity is secordary factors. When one day a small reit counter achieve a high rental revision rate, big fund still won't be buying but hedge fund is willing to buy. This will cause sharp share price upward movement.

For hektar, the rental revision rate for the time being is still weak (esp melaka parade mall)compared with big reit like cmmt and pavreit.

TF has target Thailand Airasia as profitable as Malaysia operation. Will it achieve soon? ThaiAA (or so call 'Asia Aviation') share price hit record high of THB5.35 yesterday, a big gain from IPO price of THB3.70 in mid 2012. Is the share price gain hint very good business in ThaiAA? Mr B&B, do you have the answer? Please do not silent and hide in the cave anymore .......

This stock moved in a range from 1.00 to 1.15 for the past one year. Doubt will move much since it is an office reit. Office reit yield is under pressure due to incoming oversupply of office space in Klang Valley. However, downside risk is also limited as it was support by dividend yield.

Mr bear hide in the cave? A lot of people miss you this morning ......

Faisal, as you are bumi investors, i agree that you would have good chance to make good profit vide IPO as more shares are alloted to bumi investors. For those shares you bought direct from market, i think to make good return may not be as easy as you thought. When you single out a counter you make a good profit, you should also take into account the loss (may be unrealised) of those counter you suffer, in order to calculate the overall gain/loss.

8.9% highest payout for past 5 year. Election may have influence the payout.

Invests in Bursa Saham and make 30 - 60 percent per year. Can this sustainable?